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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (13:30 GMT)

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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (13:30 GMT)

Postby WindsorBrokers » Mon Jan 11, 2016 2:02 pm

EURUSD

The Euro returned below broken bear-channel resistance line and daily 20SMA, above which it closed on Friday’s strong rally.
Friday’s daily candle with very long tail, showed renewed buying interest, however, fresh bulls in Asia that initially peaked at 1.0967, were short-lived, keeping former tops at 1.0840 zone, cracked on Asian spike to 1.0967 high, still as good resistance.
Setup of daily MA’s is mixed, along with daily indicators, hovering around their midlines and slow Stochastic entering overbought territory that indicates possible recovery stall.
Fresh weakness off 1.0967 high was for now contained by hourly cloud top at 1.0870, which should act as ideal reversal point, to keep near-term bulls in play. However, lift above 1.09 barrier is seen as minimum requirement to signal fresh bulls and re-expose 1.0940/1.0967 pivots.
Regain of lower platform at 1.0990, is needed to confirm bullish resumption.
Conversely, penetration into thick hourly Ichimoku cloud, spanned between 1.0825 and 1.0870, would be seen as bearish signal, which needs confirmation on attack at clods base.
Res: 1.0900; 1.0938; 1.0967; 1.0990
Sup: 1.0870; 1.0852; 1.0825; 1.0800

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GBPUSD

Cable bounces from fresh 5 ½ year low at 1.4492, posted today on brief probe below psychological 1.45 support. Overall structure remains firmly bearish, as the pair closed on Friday below the last strong obstacle at 1.4563, 2015 low.
The wave C, which commenced from 1.4943, 24 Dec lower top, met its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.4501 and could travel to 1.4332, 138.2% expansion, with key longer-term support at 1.4230, 20 May 2010 low, also Fibonacci 161.8% expansion, being in short-term focus.
Consecutive strong bearish weekly close, supports the notion.
However, corrective rally on oversold daily studies, is expected to precede. Initial barrier lies at 1.4600, base of thin hourly cloud, with extended rallies to be capped under 1.4665, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4943/1.4492 downleg, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA, which lies just above resistance.
Alternatively, stronger correction could be anticipated on extension above 1.4771, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.

Res: 1.4600; 1.4643; 1.4665; 1.4701
Sup: 1.4519; 1.4492; 1.4450; 1.4400


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USDJPY

The pair posted fresh 4 ½ month low at 116.67 today, on resumption of steep 6-day downleg from 120.64 lower top, which forms the wave C of larger downtrend from 123.53, 18 Dec peak.
Long bearish weekly candle signals strong bears in play for further downside.
The pair eyes next targets at 116.13, spike low of 24 Aug 2015 and 115.84/56, lows of Jan 2015 and Dec 2014, which also marks Fibonacci 138.2% expansion and floor of multi-month congestion.
Break here is needed to signal major reversal of multi-year uptrend from 75.55, Oct 2011 low.
Structure remains bearish overall and favors attack at 115.84/56 breakpoint zone, however, oversold slow Stochastic is turning higher and could spark stronger correction, before bears resume.
Highs of last Thu/Fri at 118.75, reinforced by falling daily 10SMA, which currently lies at 119.11, should ideally cap rallies.
Any stronger recovery attempts need to close above psychological 120 barrier, to sideline near-term bears.

Res: 117.90; 118.75; 119.29; 120.10
Sup: 117.50; 117.08; 116.67; 116.13


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AUDUSD
Aussie consolidates strong 5-day fall, which briefly extended today and posted new low at 0.6925, just ahead of key 0.6906 support, low of 2015. The pair is looking for full retracement of multi-month 0.6906/0.7383 correction phase, to resume larger bear-trend from 1.1079, peak of July 2011.
Meantime, corrective bounce on oversold conditions is likely to precede final push to 0.6906 breakpoint, as daily slow Stochastic is reversing in oversold territory.
Good offers lay at 0.7080/95 zone, last Thu/Fri highs, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.7325/0.6925 downleg and former low of 17 Dec and should be ideally capping recovery attempts.

Res: 0.7020; 0.7080; 0.7095; 0.7150
Sup: 0.6925; 0.6906; 0.6850; 0.6800


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