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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

Postby WindsorBrokers » Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:09 am

EUR/USD

The Euro starts the week at the back foot, following easing off last Friday’s fresh high at 1.3070. Despite weekly close above 1.3000, the pair failed to sustain gains, as more negative sentiment came on a thin-volume Asian trading, sending the single currency below 1.3000 handle. Hourly studies turned negative, with price approaching strong support at 1.2970, previous peak of 02 Oct and Fib 38.2% of 1.2800/1.3070 ascend, reinforced by bull trendline off 1.2800. As indicators on 4h chart are descending and price below hourly MA’s (10/20), immediate risk is seen on a break below 1.2970 that would open way for further retracement, with next support at 1.2940 zone, 50% / 4h Ichimoku cloud top / 55 day EMA. As the risk of lower top at 1.3070 becomes more evident, failure to reverse at 1.2970 or 1.2940, would spark fresh weakness and expose 1.2900, figure support / 61.8% retracement, loss of which to confirm lower top and shift near-term focus towards 1.2800 base. Alternative scenario sees reversal, ideally at/above 1.2970 that will keep near-term bulls in play for fresh attempt at upper barriers.


Res: 1.2992, 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3070
Sup: 1.2970, 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2875

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GBP/USD

Cable’s last week’s fresh gains and brief break above 1.6200 barrier were short-lived, as the price sharply fell on Friday’s late hours and extended weakness at the beginning of the week, losing another psychological support at 1.6100. Upside rejection at 1.6216, just under bear-trendline at 1.6235 and fresh weakness that reached 1.6080 so far, keep the near-term bears off 1.6308 in play, with loss of 1.6066, 03 Oct low and immediate target, seen as confirmation of lower top. With 4h chart indicators entering negative territory, downside remains in focus, as loss of 1.6066 to open 1.6035, previous high / 50% of 1.5753/1.6308 and 1.6000, figure support. Bears may be delayed by brief corrective action on oversold hourly conditions, however, no reversal signal have been generated yet.

Res: 1.6100, 1.6114, 1.6140, 1.6172
Sup: 1.6080, 1.6066, 1.6035, 1.6000

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USD/JPY

The pair remains under pressure after last Friday’s strong rally that stalled on approach to psychological 79.00 barrier and capped by daily cloud base. Subsequent easing has so far found footstep at 78.50, previous high and 55 day EMA, however, weak tone on hourly chart studies and price holding below 10/20 day EMA’s, sees the downside still vulnerable. Loss of 78.50 handle would indicate further easing, with 78.30 and key near-term and psychological support at 78.00. Conversely, regain of 78.75, as initial barrier, would improve the tone, but any failure under 79.00 would keep bears in play.

Res: 78.75, 78.86, 79.00, 79.21
Sup: 78.50, 78.30, 78.10, 78.00

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USD/CHF

The pair recovers a part of last week’s losses that dipped to 0.9273, where temporary ground was found. Improvement on hourly studies sees prospect for further recovery, as the price stays above MA’s and indicators break above their midlines. However, 4h chart studies are pointing higher but still in the negative zone, with strong barrier at 0.9350, 55 day EMA / 4h Ichimoku cloud base, break of which is required to keep near-term positive sentiment for possible attempt towards key hurdle at 0.9400, 200 day MA / psychological resistance. Immediate supports lie at 0.9322 and 0.9300, with loss of the latter to bring bears back in play.

Res: 0.9350, 0.9390, 0.9400, 0.9436
Sup: 0.9322, 0.9300, 0.9273, 0.9237

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