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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (08:00 GMT)

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Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (08:00 GMT)

Postby WindsorBrokers » Thu Aug 23, 2012 8:57 am

EUR/USD
Continues to trend higher, as yesterday’s fresh rally broke above psychological 1.2500 barrier. Strong resistance at 1.25/6070 zone, Fib 38.2% of 1.3384/1.2042 / 90 day SMA, has been dented, with break here to spark fresh gains towards round figure resistance at 1.2600. However, studies in lower timeframes are overbought, with hourlies already pointing lower and MACD bearish divergence developing on hourly chart that signals a pause in current rally and opens way for corrective easing. Hourly supports lie at 1.2512, 20 day EMA, 1.2500, figure support and 1.2486, Fib 23.6% of 1.2254/1.2552 ascend. More downside risk would be seen on a break below 1.2430/00 zone, Fib 38.2% / yesterday’s low / figure support.

Res: 1.2552, 1.2590, 1.2600, 1.2624
Sup: 1.2512, 1.2500, 1.2486, 1.2430

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GBP/USD
Yesterday’s acceleration through 1.5800 handle, backed by FOMC comments that significantly weakened the greenback, pushed the pair briefly through our next target and psychological barrier and Fib 61.8% of larger 1.6300/1.5267 descend at 1.5900. Positive sentiment, established on a break above two-month congestion top at 1.5776, now sees potential for further gains, with another significant barrier at 1.6000, coming in short-term focus. However, overbought conditions on 1 and 4h chart studies, warns of corrective action preceding fresh rally. Initial supports lie at 1.5880/70 zone, ahead of strong ones at 1.5800/1.5780, loss of which would sideline short-term bears.

Res: 1.5911, 1.5931, 1.5950, 1.6000
Sup: 1.5880, 1.5816, 1.5800, 1.5776

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USD/JPY
The pair loses ground, as reversal from 79.65, 20 Aug high, where gains were capped by daily Ichimoku cloud top, accelerated losses on a break below 200 day MA at 79.20 and breaking below previous strong resistance and previous range top at 78.80, to nearly fully retrace recent 78.15/79.65 rally. Dips so far reached 78.27, with return below broken bear trendline off 84.08, turning the near-term sentiment into negative territory. Brief corrective/consolidative action has so far been limited at 78.60 zone, with more significant bounce required to regain minimum 79.00 to ease bear pressure and avoid revisit of strong support and base at 78.00 zone.

Res: 79.65, 78.80, 78.96, 79.12
Sup: 78.46, 78.27, 78.15, 78.00

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USD/CHF
Acceleration of losses was seen on a break below important 0.9700 and 0.9655 supports, with loss of 0.9600 handle, extending decline to 0.9550 so far, where daily Ichimoku cloud base and 90 day MA offers near-term footstep. Corrective bounce on overextended short-term studies has been signaled on a hourly chart, however, not much of action to be expected as long as important barriers at 0.9655/0.9700 stay intact and only violation of this zone would sideline short-term bears. On the downside, break below 0.9550, to expose figure support at 0.9500, then 0.9461/20, 19/18 June higher base.

Res: 0.9584, 0.9600, 0.9617, 0.9655
Sup: 0.9550, 0.9500, 0.9461, 0.9420

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