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Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:52 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE YEAR’S FINAL ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION AND NFP RELEASE


EUR/USD
The week that just ended had a bullish bias after bouncing higher off the support at 1.2360. The last two days of the week were affected by the Thanksgiving Holiday and the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the week.

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Technical Outlook
The pair is still in a clear downtrend but several warning signs have appeared: a double bottom (which is a bullish pattern) has been printed at 1.2360 and the Relative Strength Index is constantly making higher lows while price is printing lower lows. This is known as bullish divergence and is an indication that price might be heading north. If this will be the case, an important resistance will be offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average followed by the horizontal level located at 1.2620. Keep in mind that the bears might still push price lower, considering the current downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday’s main event is the release of the US Manufacturing PMI which is a survey that tries to gauge the level of optimism among purchasing managers, regarding business conditions. Tuesday is a day without notable economic releases but Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is announced; this is a report put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the Government issued data that comes out two days later.

The most important day of the week for the Euro will be Thursday, when the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision and ECB President Mario Draghi will hold the usual Press Conference. The rate is not expected to change (currently 0.05%) but the Press Conference almost always generates strong movement, depending on Draghi’s attitude.

Friday the US Non Farm Employment Change is released, showing how many new jobs were created in the United States during the previous month. This is considered the most important job related data and the impact on the US Dollar is almost always strong.


GBP/USD
The first part of last week was controlled by the bulls but the last two days belonged to the bears and all previous gains of the Pound were erased. The pair is again trading close to support, with bearish momentum.

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Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD is showing bullish divergence as the Relative Strength Index is climbing while price is moving lower. This is a sign that price might be reversing but although divergence is present, the trend can continue after a brief retracement. Immediate support is located at 1.5590 followed by 1.5420 and resistance still sits at 1.5750 which was pierced but the bulls didn’t manage to keep price above the level.

Fundamental Outlook
Three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released throughout the week: the Manufacturing PMI comes out Monday, followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. These surveys try to gauge optimism in their respective sectors and act as leading indicators of economic health so higher values usually strengthen the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but a change is not expected, so the impact will probably be limited. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s price action during the week.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 08, 2014 7:01 am

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION AFFECTED BY THE APPROACHING OF THE WINTER HOLIDAYS


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The ECB Press Conference and the American Non Farm Payrolls were last week’s high impact events and each one of them strengthened their respective currency. Mario Draghi mentioned the ECB is not going to add further stimulus at their latest meeting and the US Dollar benefited from improved employment data.

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Technical Outlook
The latest economic data favors the greenback and the pair’s bearish impulse is likely to continue throughout the week that has just begun. The support at 1.2280 rejected price the first time it was touched last week but now the bears are trying to break it again; if this attempt doesn’t result in a clear break, the pair is likely to enter a ranging period, considering the fact that the Winter Holidays are approaching and volume might drop. A break of 1.2280 would open the door for a move into the next major support located at 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a light week ahead of us in terms of economic data but here are some of the events with potentially high impact: Monday the Eurogroup meetings take place, followed Tuesday by the ECOFIN meetings (attended by finance ministers from the EU member states). Wednesday no major events are scheduled but Thursday will be the busiest day of the week as the ECB will announce the total value of money they will create and use to provide loans to Eurozone banks. The US Retail Sales are released the same day and this can have a strong market impact as sales made at a retail level represent a hefty part of overall economic activity.

Friday the focus remains on the United States for the release of the American Producer Price Index, an indicator which shows changes in the price charged by producers for their goods and services, This indicator has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually passed on to the consumer. The same day the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey; this is a leading indicator of consumer spending because a consumer that is confident in economic and financial conditions is likely to spend more.


GBP/USD
The pair ranged for the most part of last week but US employment numbers which came out much better than anticipated, strengthened the US Dollar and helped the bears to finish the week below support.

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Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was broken during the last day of last week but before we can consider this a true break and a resumption of the downtrend, we need to see a retest from below of the broken level. If it occurs, this retest will most likely be seen on the lower time frame charts like hourly or four hours. From a daily perspective the Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition so bearish movement can continue. Bullish retracements may find support at 1.5750 while next support is located at 1.5420.

Fundamental Outlook
Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound has a slow news week ahead. Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production comes out, showing the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and the same day, the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate is revealed. Although this is just an estimate, the impact can be a big one, considering that GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:19 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: LAST FULL ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD OF CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week was mostly controlled by the bulls after the bears made another attempt to break 1.2280 support. The single bearish day was Thursday when the US Dollar strengthened on the back of a better than anticipated reading of the US Retail Sales.

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Technical Outlook
Price is likely to continue on an upward path until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a daily chart is touched. We expect some bearish movement to happen there as the moving average will probably offer resistance. A move past this line will make 1.2600 the immediate target for the pair, while a bounce lower will take price back into 1.2360 support. The winter holidays are approaching and volume is likely to drop, making price action irregular and harder to anticipate.

Fundamental Outlook
The French and German Flash Manufacturing PMIs are released Tuesday, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business and economic conditions. The same day the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey is released; the indicator is derived from the opinions of German professional investors and analysts regarding economic health and usually has a high impact on the Euro.
Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the US Dollar as the US Consumer Price Index is released, followed later in the day by the Fed Interest Rate which will be accompanied by a FOMC Statement and a FOMC Press Conference. Almost always this cluster of events creates strong moves so caution is recommended.

The German IFO Business Climate, another report focused on economic conditions, is Thursday’s main event while Friday will be a slow day in terms of economic releases.


GBP/USD
Similar to the Euro, the Pound gained against the greenback and the pair had a bullish week following a failed attempt to break support. The week was lackluster in terms of economic releases for the Pound.

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Technical Outlook
The support at 1.5590 was tested several times but the bears failed to break it decisively. This shows that we are dealing with a very strong level which may push price higher for a stronger retracement. However, the resistance at 1.5750 is also strong and it can push price lower, especially considering the fact that we are still in a downtrend. If price moves above resistance without any more tests or bounces, it will probably continue upwards for an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday during a Press Conference focused on the BoE Stability Report released earlier the same day. The conference will be followed by the release of the British Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation and holds a great importance to short and medium term price action.

Wednesday the result of the Monetary Policy Committee votes is made public, showing if the members’ stance regarding the interest rate has changed. The Claimant Count Change is released the same day, showing how many people applied for social help related to unemployment. The last important event of the week is the British Retail Sales, scheduled Thursday and as always, the US events will have a strong and direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 22, 2014 3:54 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: CHRISTMAS WEEK IS HERE, BRINGING IRREGULAR VOLATILITY


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar headed for gains last week as Fed Chair Janet Yellen hinted that next year a rate hike is likely to happen. Support levels were broken after a bounce off of the daily 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

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Technical Outlook
Price action is likely to become irregular due to the Christmas Holiday, but the important levels to watch this week are 1.2280 and 1.2360. These levels represented support and the recent break could turn them into resistance if price will climb to touch them again. Price is in a clear downtrend, trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below resistance, with the first major support now sitting at 1.2040 (visible on a weekly chart); however, we don’t believe this level will be touched this week.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected, the week ahead will be governed by the Christmas Holiday and will lack major economic activity. Tuesday is the busiest day of the week, with the focus being on the American Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of more than three years) and the New Home Sales. Wednesday no major announcements are made while Thursday and Friday most banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Christmas.


GBP/USD
Last week British CPI disappointed while Retail Sales surged and this created mixed price action, with the pair confined between support and resistance.

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Technical Outlook
During this month price moved two times below the support at 1.5590 and both times the bulls quickly stepped in, taking the pair above the level. This shows that we are dealing with strong support which may push the pair higher, into the first resistance which is located at 1.5750. On the other hand, a break of 1.5590 followed by a successful re-test will most likely trigger a move towards 1.5420 which is the next support.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Bankers’ Association will announce the Mortgage Approvals which is a leading indicator of demand for the house market and could strengthen the Pound if the value will exceed analysts’ expectations. Other than this, the week is calm and no major indicators are released; Thursday and Friday UK Banks will be closed, celebrating Christmas.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 29, 2014 12:24 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE WEEK BETWEEN YEARS COMES WITH LOW VOLUME AND SCARCE ECONOMIC RELEASES


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week price action was heavily influenced by the Christmas Holiday and the market was paused during the 25th of December. All week price suffered from low volume and irregular movement.

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Technical Outlook
The irregular price action seen last week is likely to continue this week as the New Year will be the main concern of most traders around the world. The pair is in a downtrend, trading below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.2280. The first support is located at 1.2040 but probably we won’t see a break this week as the market will be thin for most of the period. Our bias is neutral considering that this week the year changes and all pairs will be affected.

Fundamental Outlook
As expected we have very few economic releases this week; here are the most important: Tuesday the US Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinion of about 5,000 American households about current economic conditions, but also their expectations for the near future.

Wednesday German Banks will be closed in observance of the New Year’s Eve and the US Unemployment Claims will be the day’s single notable event. Thursday is the first day of 2015 and the market will be closed, price will come to a stop and no economic indicators will be released, while Friday is another slow day with the only important event being the release of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index.


GBP/USD
Last week was mostly controlled by the bears on the back of disappointing British economic data but soon Christmas made its presence known, volume dropped and the pair came to a stop Thursday, while Friday’s trading session lacked strong movement.

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Technical Outlook
Some movement is likely to be seen throughout the week but we don’t expect any substantial advances as the New Year will take center stage and volume will probably remain low. The important levels to watch this week are located at 1.5590 (resistance) 1.5485 (support), while price behavior at the current level (1.5540) will probably determine the next direction. Our bias is neutral for this pair as well, and we expect to see irregular movement; keep in mind that Thursday the market will be closed.

Fundamental Outlook
The only noteworthy British release is the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled Friday. The indicator is a survey of purchasing managers focused on the business conditions in the manufacturing sector and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jan 05, 2015 1:21 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE DOLLAR REACHES NEW HIGHS


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the Euro weakened the most in more than 4 years against the US Dollar; a big role in the drop was played by the fact that the ECB talked about large scale bond purchases and ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that he cannot rule our deflation.

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Technical Outlook
We saw another bearish week as the pair managed to move below the important support at 1.2040. The Relative Strength Index on a Daily chart moved below the 30 level and this shows an overextended condition, signaling that a retracement is likely to occur. The same condition is shown by the Stochastic indicator (11,6,6) which is moving well below the 20 level. First support is located at 1.1875 (better seen on a Weekly chart) but during the week we expect pullbacks above 1.2040.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Preliminary CPI is released Monday, showing the state of German inflation which is an important part of European inflation. This will be followed Wednesday by the European CPI Flash Estimate which offers an early look into European inflation; since the ECB is struggling to raise inflation levels, these releases will have a high impact on the Euro. A privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing) will release the same day the Non Farm Employment Change which is a report that tries to mimic the Government data released 2 days later. Later the same day the FOMC Meeting Minutes are released, showing details about Fed’s latest meeting.

Friday the most important U.S. jobs related data comes out: the Non Farm Employment Change (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). This report shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month and almost always the impact on the Dollar is huge as more jobs are indicative of increased consumer spending in the near future.

GBP/USD
The pair moved substantially lower last week as the British economy showed clear signs of contraction, but also because market participants speculate about a potential U.S. rate increase early in the year.

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Technical Outlook
Last week the pair experienced a huge drop and such a move is likely to trigger some sort of bullish reaction in the form of a retracement. This retracement can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.5420 but the first lower target is located at 1.5260 which acted as strong support in the past (better seen on a Weekly chart).

Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction and Services PMIs are released Monday and Tuesday respectively, followed Thursday by the Official Bank Rate. Lately a lot of speculation is surrounding the British interest rate and although a change is not expected, the event is likely to generate strong movement. The last Pound-affecting event of the week is Friday’s Manufacturing Production release which shows the total value of output produced by the British manufacturing sector.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:31 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ECB TO DECIDE THE NEXT DIRECTION OF THE SHARED CURRENCY

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the markets were shaken by Swiss National Bank’s sudden and unexpected decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor which caped the pair at 1.20. As a result the Swiss Franc appreciated tremendously against its peers and the market showed unprecedented volatility.

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Technical Outlook
On Daily and Weekly charts, both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are indicating an oversold condition of the pair, but considering the latest developments, the technical side is less important than the fundamental. The next potential support is located at 1.1380 but the pair last visited this level in 2003 so the importance of this level cannot be assessed. As for resistance, the first level of interest is 1.1640, followed by 1.1875. The environment remains strongly bearish, with retracements expected.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday U.S. Banks will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day and no major indicators are scheduled. Tuesday’s main event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey derived from the opinions of about 275 German analysts and investors regarding their 6-month economic outlook.
Wednesday is a slow day as far as U.S. and European economic releases are concerned but Thursday will probably be the week’s most volatile day due to the ECB Meeting. The interest rate decision will be announced and more importantly, the ECB will announce whether they will start a government-bond buying program or not. The market already expects the ECB to introduce such a stimulus and if this proves wrong, the reaction will be mixed.
Friday the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released, offering insights into the state of the manufacturing sectors in these countries.

GBP/USD
The Pound – US Dollar pair wasn’t affected strongly by Swiss National Bank’s decision and for the entire week, price action was mixed, without a lot of directional movement.

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Technical Outlook
The pair is caped to the upside by 1.5260 resistance and to the downside by 1.5035 support. This week we expect a breakout which could take price into the next support located at 1.4830 or into the resistance offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Both the Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are hovering near their oversold levels, a fact which could help the bulls if they attempt to break resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
Wednesday the British Claimant Count Change is released, showing how many people applied for unemployment related welfare. A higher number indicates increased levels of unemployment and is usually detrimental for the currency. The same day the votes on the latest BoE interest rate decision are made public but this event usually creates strong movement only if one or more MPC members have changed their stances regarding the need for a rate adjustment. The final British event of the week is the release of the Retail Sales scheduled Friday. Since sales made at a retail level represent a big part of overall economic activity, higher numbers are viewed as beneficial for the currency.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:01 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: MULTI-YEAR LOWS REACHED. FURTHER DOWNSIDE ACTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the euro suffered great losses against most of its peers as the ECB decided the economy is in need of more stimulus than originally anticipated. The amount they settled on is 60 billion euro/month until the end of 2016.

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Technical Outlook
Without a doubt last week was controlled by the bears and this week we expect to see further downside movement. The low at 1.1114 will offer the first potential support while potential resistance sits at 1.1450; both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic show a severe oversold condition on a daily chart and this makes way for some bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook
A German Business Climate survey is released Monday, showing the level of optimism among business owners, regarding a 6-month economic outlook. Tuesday the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are announced, followed later in the day by a Consumer Confidence survey which acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

Wednesday is the week’s most important day for the greenback as the Fed will announce the interest rate and a FOMC Statement is released, outlining the reasons which influenced the rate decision; it also can contain hints about future monetary policy.

German inflation data comes out Thursday as the Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released. In light of recent events, we might see some changes in inflation numbers and this will translate into strong market moves. Friday the Euro Zone CPI comes out, offering a view on inflation in the entire Euro area. The last event of the week comes out the same day in the form of the U.S. Advance Gross Domestic Product which as we know is an economy’s main gauge of performance and can have a hefty impact on the currency.


GBP/USD
The pair finally broke the horizontal channel inside which it was confined lately as the dollar extended its gains against the British Pound. The break was partly generated by MPC members’ change of stance regarding the interest rate – this time all members voted to keep rates unchanged.

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Technical Outlook
If the break of 1.5035 can be sustained by the bears, we consider the next destination to be the support at 1.4830; otherwise the bulls will probably take price into the resistance at 1.5260. If this resistance will be touched, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will contribute to the strength of the level because by the time price climbs, the MA will probably descend in close vicinity of 1.5260, creating a confluence zone.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will announce Monday the number of new Mortgage Approvals, offering insights into the British house market. Tuesday the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released and Friday the Net Lending to Individuals is announced, showing the change in the value of loans issued to consumers. The indicator offers hints about future consumer spending and consumer confidence.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:07 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: FATE OF THE DOWNTREND DECIDED BY AMERICAN JOBS DATA


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: The week that just ended was the first bullish one in a long time. The Fed mentioned patience regarding a potential rate hike and the U.S. Gross Domestic Product disappointed, thus the appeal of the U.S. Dollar somewhat diminished last week.

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Technical Outlook
The downtrend is still intact but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic (11, 6, 6) are starting to move upwards, after a long period they’ve spent in oversold area. This suggests that we might see another bullish week with the first target located at 1. 1450 (1.1460), followed by 1.1640. As mentioned before, the downtrend is still intact (although overextended) and this means that another encounter with 1.1100 support zone is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook
American manufacturing data is released Monday in the form of the Manufacturing PMI which acts as a leading indicator of economic health derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sector. Tuesday is a slow day for economic releases and Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change comes out, offering hints about the Government-issued data which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday the U.S. Trade Balance comes out, showing the difference between the value of imported and exported goods; a negative number means that more goods were imported than exported and this can have a negative impact on the greenback but often this indicator has a mild impact on the market. The week’s most important data comes out Friday: the U.S. Non Farm Employment Change. This is widely considered the most important jobs related indicator and shows how many new jobs were created in the analyzed month. A higher number of jobs suggests a thriving economy and indicates that consumer spending will increase in the near future.


GBP/USD

The Pound – Dollar pair continued to move in a range last week and although price closed lower than it opened, neither bulls nor bears made significant advances.

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Technical Outlook
The pair is confined between 1.5260 resistance and 1.4950 support but price is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and a downtrend is still in place, although it’s currently stalling. A break of support would make 1.4830 the immediate target and to the upside 1.5260 combined with the 50 period EMA will offer strong resistance; however, the pair’s direction will be strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data scheduled for release this week.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMIs come out Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from each sector and usually act as leading indicators of economic health so better values are beneficial for the Pound. Thursday the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate but no change is expected so the event will probably have a small impact. The pair will be directly and strongly affected by the U.S. jobs data.
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Re: Weekly Commentary | Gdmfx | Technical

Postby GDMFX » Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:45 pm

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: RESISTANCE TESTED. BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY


EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week’s price action was confined in a range, with all daily moves reversed completely the next day. American jobs data which surpassed analyst’s expectations puts the latest momentum in the hands of sellers.

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Technical Outlook
All bullish moves were capped by 1.1500 resistance zone and all bearish moves encountered strong support around 1.1300. Both the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic moved out of oversold territory and this means that now further moves south can occur easier than before. However, before that can happen, the Stochastic should cross downwards, agreeing with the Relative Strength Index. A break of 1.1300 would open the door for another encounter with the zone around 1.1100, while a break of 1.1500 would generate a move into 1.1640 and into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook
Monday is the first day of the G20 Meetings which take place in Istanbul. Members of the 20 member states meet in order to discuss a range of economic and political issues and this can have an effect on the currency market so we might see some strong movement. Tuesday the meetings continue but generally the day is calm and no major indicators are released.

Wednesday the Eurogroup Meetings take place and are attended by key personalities from the Euro area, including the President of the European Central Bank. Again, volatility can be present, depending on the matters discussed.

Thursday’s main event is the release of the U.S. Retail Sales; the indicator tracks changes in levels of sales made at retail outlets and is considered to have a high-impact on the US Dollar as retail sales are an important part of consumer spending. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is released and the University of Michigan will make public their Consumer Sentiment survey. Both indicators have the potential to be strong market movers, especially if the actual values will be different than analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD
The pair had a bullish week on the back of positive economic data coming out of the United Kingdom. Some of the Pound’s gains were erased later in the week when the U.S. Jobs report was released.

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Technical Outlook
The pair was in need of a bullish pullback such as the one seen last week since the downtrend seemed exhausted and new lows weren’t printed in a relatively long while. The current level at 1.5260, combined with the 50 days Exponential Moving Average will offer good resistance and in fact rejection was already seen so we expect bearish moves once the Stochastic crosses downwards. First major support is located at 1.4950, while resistance sits at 1.5750 but we could have a slow week, with neither target being reached.

Fundamental Outlook
Tuesday the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out and will be followed later in the day by the NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate. Although this is just an estimated value of the GDP, it usually has a strong impact on the Pound because it usually has high accuracy.

Thursday the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report which contains an outlook for inflation and economic performance over the next 2 years. BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference the same day, discussing the contents of the Report and this is likely to be the day’s main market mover. As always, the U.S. events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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