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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:40 pm

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES CENTER STAGE AS FED CHAIRMAN DESIGNATE POWELL TESTIFIES IN WASHINGTON DC


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair made new advances during the early stages of yesterday’s trading session and pierced through last week’s high at 1.1944. However, the US Dollar showed signs of recovery in the afternoon and price returned below resistance.

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Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.1944 and returning below it, the pair is now showing two candles with a very long wick in their upper part. This rejection combined with the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, increases the chances of a move lower that may find support around 1.1900 - 1.1875. However, the pair’s movement will likely be influenced by the testimony of Fed Chair Designate Powell, so the technical aspect may be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Designate Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. He is designated to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve starting in February 2018, so his speech will probably have a strong impact on the US Dollar, thus caution should be used.

At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about current and future economic conditions. The expected reading is 123.9 and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback because rising consumer confidence is indicative of future increase in consumer spending.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound won the early battle against the US Dollar but the gains were erased in the second part of yesterday’s trading session, partly due to better than expected U.S. house sales.

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Technical Outlook

The last candle shows a huge upper wick, which is a clear and strong sign of rejection and this is the main reason why we expect to see today a drop into 1.3320. If that support is broken, the medium term uptrend will be weakened and we will probably see more choppy movement. Both currencies are affected today by major events and those will play a major role for direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will reveal the Bank Stress Test Results and the Financial Stability Report. Half an hour later, BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference about the two releases that were just mentioned and this cluster of events is likely to generate strong volatility on all Pound pairs, so caution is recommended.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:31 pm

FOREX NEWS: POWELL’S TESTIMONY BOOSTS THE US DOLLAR. GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP EYED FOR NEXT MOVE


EUR/USD

Forex News: The text of Fed Chair Designate Powell’s testimony was released 17 hours earlier than initially scheduled. However, during his hearing before the Senate Committee he showed a hawkish stance, giving a boost to the US Dollar.

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Technical Outlook

The anticipated pullback happened yesterday and the pair dropped to touch the support at 1.1875 but price action is still choppy, with long candle wicks and small bodies. However, the market seems to be receiving well the nomination of Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair, so we expect to see increased demand for the US Dollar and a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a look at German inflation with the release of their Preliminary Consumer Price Index. The anticipated change is 0.3% and under normal conditions, higher numbers strengthen the shared currency.

For the US Dollar the most important release will be the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to increase to 3.3% compared to the previous 3.0%. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance, so a higher reading strengthens the greenback. The data comes out at 1:30 pm GMT.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress about the U.S. economic outlook. The event should be treated with caution.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped at the time of Powell’s testimony but the impact was much bigger than the one seen on EUR/USD, mostly because the Pound was weaker at the time. Also the US Consumer Sentiment survey posted a much better than anticipated figure aiding the drop.

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Technical Outlook

Price dropped through several support levels, including the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now trading very close to 1.3225 support. The long distance travelled yesterday calls for a retracement to the upside and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, thus supporting this view; however, we don’t expect the pair to climb above the 50 EMA. A break of 1.3225 will open the door for a move into 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT, BOE Governor Carney will speak at the Fixed Income Currencies and Commodities Markets Standards Board about the Fair and Effective Markets Review. This is not a major testimony or press conference so the impact may not be huge but caution is recommended nonetheless.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:48 am

FOREX NEWS: POUND SOARS ON FRESH BREXIT NEWS. KEY RESISTANCE TARGETED

EUR/USD

Forex News: German inflation data and U.S. Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectation yesterday and each strengthened the respective currency. The pair bounced at support but failed to break resistance and moved lower again, creating irregular movement.

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Technical Outlook

The next big move will be decided by the break of 1.1825 support or 1.1875 resistance because yesterday the pair was rejected by both these levels, thus increasing their importance. Price is testing support for the second time but at the time of writing it is showing rejection and has moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which make us anticipate a move into 1.1875 and possibly a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day will be the release of the European CPI Flash Estimate, which is the main gauge of inflation across the Eurozone and has a high impact on the currency itself. The expected change is 1.6% from the previous 1.4% and anything above forecast strengthens the Euro; the time of release is 10:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD

News that the EU and UK have reached an agreement regarding the Brexit “divorce” bill, boosted the Pound to fresh highs and took the pair 200 pips higher. The pair gave up some of the gains later in the day but momentum favours the bulls.

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Technical Outlook

The bounce seen at 1.3225 was generated by strong fundamental reasons, not so much by the technical side, so the effects may extend over a longer period. In the short term we expect to see a touch of the key resistance located at 1.3450 (better seen on a Daily chart), where we expect to see a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene is calm today for the Pound, without any scheduled releases. That being said, caution is recommended because the Pound is prone to strong movement if surprising news come out.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:00 am

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE IS SHATTERED AS A NEW WAVE OF US DOLLAR WEAKNESS HITS THE MARKET


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed choppy movement early during yesterday’s session but in the afternoon the US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure and price shot through 1.1875 resistance.

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Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.1825 support or to close below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair started to rally strongly without any high impact news behind the move. Price is now out of the consolidation area between 1.1875 and 1.1825, showing strong momentum, facts which make us anticipate a touch of 1.1945 – 1.1950 resistance in the near term. If price reaches that mark we expect it to bounce lower, at least momentarily.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most notable release will be the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers who are asked to rate business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the expected reading is 58.4.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its ascension yesterday and moved through the psychological resistance at 1.3500. The move was mostly due to US Dollar weakness and a positive sentiment surrounding the Pound.

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Technical Outlook

After the initial push above 1.3450, price returned to re-test the level, which rejected it higher, turning into support. This level was a strong resistance (better seen on a Daily chart), so we can expect it to act as strong support in the future. As long as the pair remains above 1.3500, the next destination is 1.3600 but that mark will not be hit today probably, unless surprises happen. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought, warning of potential retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is today’s only highlight for the Pound, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 56.6. Just like the U.S. PMI mentioned above, this survey tries to gauge optimism among purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it shows a reading above expectations.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:01 pm

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TESTS SUPPORT, BEARS BUILD UP STEAM FOR ANOTHER PUSH LOWER


EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a better than expected reading but the previous value was revised lower and this generated a mixed reaction and a perfect bounce at support.

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Technical Outlook

The target at 1.1735 was touched Friday and price reacted to it by bouncing higher but the medium term bias remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. After the current bullish retracement is complete, we expect to see a break of 1.1735 and a consequent move into 1.1700 but today will most likely be a slow day, with price trading in a relatively tight range.

Fundamental Outlook

The JOLTS Job Openings will be today’s only release worth mentioning, although this indicator has a negligible impact most of the time. It shows the monthly number of job openings, excluding the farming sector and usually strengthens the US Dollar if the actual value surpasses estimates. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 6.03 Million.



GBP/USD

Even before the U.S. jobs data came out Friday, price started to drop and the Non-Farm Payrolls added more fuel to the US Dollar, taking the pair into support. A minor bullish move was seen late in the afternoon but the session was overall bearish.

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Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3500 and this is another blow to the medium term uptrend. The picture is mixed but the bounce at 1.3360 will most likely trigger a climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3410. However, if this resistance zone holds and rejects price, we will probably see a break of 1.3360.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any notable release. This may translate into a slow and ranging trading session.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:40 am

FOREX NEWS: POUND TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE BRITISH CPI RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the economic scene was calm and without any major data releases; however, the pair continued higher at a relatively slow pace and touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

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Technical Outlook

The last few bullish candles are showing wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which may suggest that the retracement started at 1.1735 is coming to an end. If the 50 period EMA is surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.1825 but at the moment it seems like the pair is lacking the strength to break that mark. A bounce lower at the 50 EMA will make 1.1735 the new target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 300 German analysts and investors regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy. This is an indicator of economic health and optimism, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 17.9 can strengthen the Euro but the impact is usually medium.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US Producer Price Index will come out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The forecast is a change of 0.4% and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar because the indicator has inflationary implications.



GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session yesterday, amid a lacklustre economic environment. Neither side was in clear control but an early climb was quickly reversed.

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Technical Outlook

The bulls tried yesterday to move price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.3410 resistance but the attempt resulted in a long rejection candle and a drop into the support at 1.3360. The pair’s direction today will be heavily influenced by the British inflation data, so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary but if the pair stays below the 50 EMA, we expect to see a drop into 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index will be released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation, so higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The expected reading is 3.0%, same as previous.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:07 pm

FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 2017

EUR/USD
Forex News: The U.S. Producer Price Index released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations of 0.4%, so the release didn’t generate strong movement. However, the session was controlled in most part by the bears and the pair touched support.

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Technical Outlook
The support at 1.1735 rejected price several times in the past and acted as a strong barrier, so a break would mean a big victory for the bears and would take the pair into 1.1700 in the very near future. Our outlook is bearish, anticipating such a move but also, we expect a retracement if price hits 1.1700 mark. The US Dollar will be affected by the Fed rate announcement, so we may see choppy price action until the release.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day will be the Fed rate announcement scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT and followed shortly after (7:30 pm GMT) by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. The Fed is expected to hike the rate from the current <1.25% to <1.50% and if this is the case, the US Dollar will likely see a boost of volatility, so caution is expected.

Earlier in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be released and since this is one of the main gauges of inflation, higher numbers than the forecast 0.4% will likely strengthen the greenback.



GBP/USD
Yesterday the British CPI posted a value of 3.1%, above the expectations of 3.0% and this initially created Pound strength but immediately after, the US Dollar took over and erased all Pound gains, creating a choppy session.

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Technical Outlook
After a spike that took price briefly above 1.3360, the pair descended and is now testing 1.3320 support on the back of mild US Dollar strength. It must be noted that the candles have long wicks in their upper part, which is a sign of rejection at resistance and increased bearish pressure, so we expect to see a break of the current support (1.3320) and a move into 1.3280 where a pullback may occur.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Average Earnings Index will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. The expected change is 2.5% (previous 2.2%) and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be affected by the Fed announcement later in the day.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:03 am

FOREX NEWS: FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT IS DONE. ECB AND BOE NEXT!


EUR/USD

Forex News: The Fed hiked the interest rate to <1.50% as it was widely anticipated but the Rate Statement didn’t show a hawkish stance and this allowed the pair to climb. Also, Fed Chair Yellen mentioned uncertainty about inflation in her press conference and this further weakened the US Dollar.

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Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at 1.1735 support and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average with authority but stopped at 1.1825 at the time of writing. We expect this resistance level to be broken and price to head into 1.1875 in the near future. If the pair bounces lower from the current level but still remains above the 50 EMA, the outlook remains bullish, anticipating a move into the next resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the release will most likely create increased volatility. Later at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference where he will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the press conference is known to be a strong market mover, so caution is recommended because the impact cannot be anticipated.

At the same time (1:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Retail Sales are released, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. The impact is usually high and numbers above the forecast 0.6% strengthen the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound capitalized on the Fed rate announcement yesterday and the pair moved to the upside, surpassing the 50 period EMA and making the short-to-medium term outlook bullish.

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Technical Outlook

Downside movement stalled around 1.3320 and price jumped into 1.3410 after the Fed rate announcement and press conference. The bullish momentum is likely to take the pair above the current resistance and closer to 1.3450 – 1.3500. A retracement will follow if the pair reaches these levels but as long as price is trading above the 50 EMA, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day will be the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%. The indicator usually boosts the Pound if it posts readings above forecast and the opposite is true for values below expectations.

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but since no change is anticipated for quite a long while, we expect the event to create only moderate volatility unless surprises happen.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:22 am

FOREX NEWS: EURO SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AFTER ECB PRESSER. BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES

EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB left the interest rate unchanged as expected and the Euro had a mixed reaction, first spiking higher and then retracing into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar on the other hand, was boosted by better than expected Retail Sales and this contributed to the drop.

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Technical Outlook

The pair is now showing a candle with a very long upper wick, which is a clear sign of rejection; however, the US Dollar is still lacking strong momentum and the pair is testing the 50 period EMA, so we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario. If the Moving Average will be broken, the pair may try to break 1.1735 again and otherwise, we expect to see a move above 1.1825 and closer to 1.1875. Today we don’t have major announcements, so we may see a ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Industrial Production will be the most notable release of the say, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 0.3%, lower than the previous 0.9%. The report tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by factories and has a positive impact on the greenback if it posts a higher than expected value.



GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted in the early part of yesterday’s trading session by upbeat British Retail Sales but it had a muted reaction to the BOE decision to maintain rates unchanged, as expected. Later in the session the US Dollar recovered some of the early losses and took the pair into support.

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Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bounce at 1.3450 can be considered a simple retracement so the outlook remains bullish. Today’s price action will likely take place between the 50 EMA and 1.3450 and a break of one of these boundaries will probably trigger a stronger move in that direction. However, the economic calendar is light today and this could translate into a slow session.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:58 am

FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, EUROZONE CPI EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair came under pressure Friday after failing to break above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and finished the week in negative territory. The US Dollar has now erased all losses incurred after the FOMC Meeting.

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Technical Outlook

Price is now very close to a bullish trend line and early in today’s session we expect to see a break or a bounce at the said trend line. A bounce higher will take price into the 50 EMA and a break will probably trigger a move into 1.1700 territory but given the lack of major economic releases, we don’t expect to see a break of the 50 EMA or 1.1700 support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Final Consumer Price Index will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and this will be the only notable event of the day. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as the main gauge of inflation but the Final version has a low impact; nonetheless, numbers above the forecast 1.5% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday the pair dropped on the back of Brexit concerns and lost more than 100 pips, finishing the week in negative territory. However, price is still ranging from a longer term perspective and support is still holding.

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Technical Outlook

The support zone around 1.3320 – 1.3300 rejected price twice in a relatively short period and now it is being tested again. After Friday’s strong drop, we will likely see a small pullback but as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of 1.3320 and a consequent move into 1.3280.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any major economic releases. Brexit talks and negotiations can affect the currency, so caution is recommended.
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