Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Share and discuss your analysis, opinions or simply the gut feeling about the possible market direction, trends and/or possibilities for any reversals in this forum.
Image

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Sep 01, 2014 5:28 am

FOREX NEWS: IRREGULAR VOLATILITY DUE TO AMERICAN BANK HOLIDAY. POUND AFFECTED BY MANUFACTURING DATA


EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s main event was the release of the Euro Zone CPI which slowed down from 0.4% to 0.3%, just how analysts anticipated. The drop weakened the Euro and the pair finished the week with the bears in control.

Image

Technical Outlook
Now that price surpassed 1.3150, we anticipate a move closer to 1.3100 after a potential retest of the recently broken level. However, the pair has been on an extended move to the south and the Relative Strength Index is oversold on a Daily chart, signaling that bullish pullbacks are a probable scenario. If this is the case, the first major barrier is 1.3200 which has now turned into resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
American banks will be closed today due to Labor Day and no economic indicators are scheduled for release today. As a result, the New York session might suffer from low liquidity and irregular movement. There are no major European releases either, so we may experience slow and ranging price action during the day.


GBP/USD
The Pound had another slow day Friday and no special developments took place. Price remained confined in a tight range and the anticipated breakout didn’t occur.

Image

Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.6600 and the support at 1.6550 managed to contain price for longer than anticipated and this was mostly due to the lack of major economic releases last week. Today the probability of a breakout is greatly increased but the direction depends mostly on the manufacturing data released by the United Kingdom.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI is released. The indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and also acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The expected value is 55.1 and a higher number is usually beneficial for the Pound.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:27 am

FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION AFFECTED BY PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEXES


EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro climbed yesterday, moving towards 1.3150 but price action lacked momentum as no major economic news came out and the market suffered from low volatility due to the fact that US banks were closed.

Image

Technical Outlook
The bears slowed down their momentum but the downtrend is intact and a touch of 1.3150 is expected before we can see more downside movement. If 1.3150 is surpassed, the next resistance is located at 1.3200 but we might experience slow and ranging movement until the ECB meets this week. The first level of interest to the south is 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day will be the release of the American Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate economic and business conditions; the anticipated value is 57.0 and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback as they suggest that optimism among purchasing managers is increasing.


GBP/USD
The Pound strengthened earlier in the day but the disappointing value of the British Manufacturing PMI stopped further bullish advances and erased some of the Pound’s gains.

Image

Technical Outlook
The current bullish move can be considered just a retracement in a rather strong downtrend so we expect downside movement and another close encounter with 1.6550 support. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the overbought level for the first time in a long while and bearish divergence is present, a fact which favors another move south. If the pair continues upwards, it will encounter the first resistance at 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released and anticipated to drop from last month’s 62.4 to 61.5. Since this is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the construction sector, it acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Pound. As always, the US events will directly affect the pair as well.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Sep 03, 2014 12:10 pm

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND RESUMED, MAJOR SUPPORT AHEAD


EUR/USD
Forex News: Speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates sooner than anticipated boosted the US Dollar and allowed it to climb versus its main counterparts. This affected our pair as well, but the impact was not tremendous and major support was not touched.

Image

Technical Outlook
If 1.3100 support is touched, we expect bullish pullbacks into 1.3150 – 1.3200 resistance. On a Daily chart the trend has been moving straight down for an extended period and the Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory. These factors call for a “breather” in the form of a retracement north but the pair’s direction may be affected by the economic indicators that are released today.

Fundamental Outlook
The European Retail Sales numbers come out at 9:00 am GMT and a negative change is expected from the previous 0.4% to -0.3%. Although Retail Sales are usually a high impact indicator, this release is likely to have a muted impact because Germany and France have already released their consumer spending indicators, but higher than anticipated numbers will most likely add some strength to the Euro.


GBP/USD
The Pound weakened drastically against the US Dollar as a survey showed increased support for Scotland’s independence which will be decided through a referendum later this month. The release of the British Construction PMI was mostly overlooked by market participants.

Image

Technical Outlook
Now that 1.6550 is clearly broken, the first support and target for the pair is located at 1.6460. The downtrend is resumed and the ranging period is hopefully over but we might see moves close to 1.6550 before 1.6460 is touched. If such a scenario occurs and 1.6550 will turn into resistance, the chances of a touch of 1.6460 will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
The UK Services PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and it’s expected to drop from last month’s 59.1 to 58.6, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound. The indicator is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the British Services sector and also acts as a leading indicator of economic health.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:38 am

FOREX NEWS: INTEREST RATES AND AN EARLY LOOK INTO AMERICAN EMPLOYMENT LEVELS SET THE STAGE FOR A WILD DAY


EUR/USD
Forex News: A cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine strengthened the single currency and triggered a move up. Market participants overlooked the disappointing value of the European Retail Sales and the pair experienced a bullish day.

Image

Technical Outlook
From a purely technical point of view, a bounce off of the current level at 1.3150 is very likely. If this bounce occurs, the next destination is 1.3100 support, but Mario Draghi’s speech and the ECB interest rate decision will decide the day’s direction and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will make public their decision regarding the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.15%. A Press Conference will follow at 12:30 pm GMT and during this conference the highest volatility of the day will probably be seen. There has been a lot of talk about additional measures adopted by the ECB to stimulate economic growth and during the press conference ECB President Mario Draghi will probably answer questions on the matter. His attitude will be closely watched by market participants and will trigger sharp moves.

A privately owned company will release an early version of the US Non Farm Employment Change at 12:15 pm GMT. This data tries to mimic the government issued indicator which is released Friday and usually has a hefty impact on the market. The anticipated number is 216K and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar but Friday’s indicator normally has a higher impact.


GBP/USD
The pair retraced higher yesterday with the help of a better than expected value of the Services PMI but bears regained control later in the day and a new low was printed.

Image

Technical Outlook
The pair reached the important support located at 1.6460 but now it shows clear signs of slowing down. We can see multiple candles which suggest indecision and the Relative Strength Index reached oversold territory. This makes it harder for the bears to push the pair further down and increases the chances of bullish retracements but price action will be influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but no change is expected (currently 0.50%). Because a Statement is issued only in the case of a rate change, today we will probably not have any information about the reasons that stood behind the rate decision and this diminishes the impact of the event. However, surprises can happen and we recommend caution if trading at the time. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the day.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Sep 05, 2014 3:16 pm

FOREX NEWS: ECB SURPRISES THE MARKET WITH ANOTHER RATE CUT. FOCUS SHIFTS ON NON FARM PAYROLLS


EUR/USD
Forex News: The ECB unexpectedly decided to cut the interest rate to 0.05% (previously 0.15%) and Mario Draghi announced that a form of Quantitative Easing will be introduced in order to stimulate the economy. He also mentioned that other measures might be implemented if needed.

Image

Technical Outlook
The surprise offered by the ECB drastically weakened the Euro and the effect was a massive drop of almost 200 pips. The selloff broke 1.3100 and brought the pair into the psychological support at 1.3000, solidifying the control of the bears and renewing the downtrend. Today’s direction will be heavily affected by the US Non Farm Payrolls but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a small bounce followed by a trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event will be the release of the Non Farm Payrolls which is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT; the expected number is 226K, an increase from last month’s 209K. Higher numbers show that more jobs were created and usually this strengthens the greenback because employment is closely correlated with consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the economy. The NFP release is known to be a huge market mover thus caution is recommended if trading at the time.


GBP/USD
The Bank of England left the rate unchanged and the event didn’t have a huge impact on the pair’s movement but US Dollar strength generated a clear break of 1.6460 support.

Image

Technical Outlook
The downtrend is resumed and 1.6460 is clearly broken. This level will probably turn into resistance and will reject any bullish moves that may come close to it. The first major support is now located at 1.6250 (visible on a Daily chart) and the Relative Strength Index continues to move in oversold territory, a fact which favors moves to the north in the form of small retracements. The day’s direction will be heavily influenced by the American NFP release which will overshadow the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release major economic indicators today and all eyes will be turned towards the American employment report.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Sep 08, 2014 11:55 am

FOREX NEWS: THE CALM AFTER THE STORM. THE MARKET SLOWS DOWN


EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s price action was heavily influenced by the worse than expected value posted by the American Non Farm Payrolls, a fact which allowed the pair to climb. However, the Euro bulls weren’t strong enough to sustain the move and some of the gains were erased.

Image

Technical Outlook
The last two days of last week were heavily influenced by the fundamental environment and the moves generated were huge. Such movement is often followed by sideways price action and we believe the pair will range between the low at 1.2920 and the potential resistance at 1.3000. Usually Mondays are slow days unless major news comes out and today the schedule is pretty light.

Fundamental Outlook
The only noteworthy indicator released today is the German Trade Balance which shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is 17.3B compared with last month’s 16.2B and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Euro but the indicator has a mild impact on price action unless surprising values are posted. The time of the release is 6:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD
Similar to the Euro, the Pound briefly gained on the back of the worse than expected value of the US employment report but overall Friday was slow compared to the previous days.

Image

Technical Outlook
First major support is located at 1.6250 and will probably attract price like a magnet since it is very close and it is considered a key level for medium term price action. The first lower barrier is represented by Friday’s low located at 1.6280 which is considered minor support. We expect a rather slow day based on the fact that no important economic or financial indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook
As mentioned above, the fundamental scene is calm and price action will be governed by the technical aspect.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:54 am

FOREX NEWS: THE POUND DROPS AS SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE BECOMES A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY


EUR/USD
Forex News: The German Trade Balance showed improved numbers but overall the day lacked strong movement and the pair traded inside a 30 pip range for almost the entire duration of the day.

Image

Technical Outlook
The day ahead is likely to be characterized by ranging movement, similar to the one experienced yesterday. The pair is capped to the downside by the low located at 1.2920 and we might see another attempt to break it but the Relative Strength Index is making its way up, coming from oversold territory and this suggests that price may revisit the zone around 1.3000 as a stronger bullish retracement is still anticipated. However, keep in mind that control belongs to the bears and a break of the low can easily occur.

Fundamental Outlook
The French Trade Balance is announced at 6:45 am GMT. The indicator shows the difference in value between imported and exported goods but it is known to have a mild impact on price action. The expected value is -5.0B while the previous was -5.4B and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.


GBP/USD
A poll regarding a potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom showed that for the first time the number of people who are pro-independence exceeded the number of people who still want to be a part of the United Kingdom.

Image

Technical Outlook
The poll result triggered a massive downside gap which made the pair open below the key level at 1.6250. A potential separation of Scotland from the United Kingdom will severely damage the Pound and until the 18th of September (the day when Scottish people will express their view through a referendum), we are likely to see irregular and hard to predict price action. For now the first minor support is located at 1.6100 while potential resistance sits in the 1.6250 zone.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech in Liverpool. Considering the latest developments, this speech is likely to have a higher impact than usual but it all depends on his attitude and matters discussed. At the same time the British Manufacturing Production change is announced and the expected value is 0.3%, same as last month. Because Manufacturing is an important part of the entire British Industrial Production, today’s release is considered a high-impact one and higher values will most likely strengthen the Pound.

At 2:00 pm GMT an unofficial estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product is released. This estimated value is calculated using statistical projection techniques and has an impact similar to the one of the official release. The previous estimate was 0.6% and higher numbers will most likely strengthen the Pound.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Sep 10, 2014 12:41 pm

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AS RETRACEMENTS ARE STILL EXPECTED


EUR/USD
Forex News: The economic scene lacked major developments and the pair moved lower just to return higher later in the day. Yesterday’s low was broken before the bullish move and a new yearly low was printed.

Image

Technical Outlook
Currently the pair is testing the recently broken level of 1.2920 but the downtrend doesn’t show signs of slowing down thus there’s a high probability that price will bounce lower, turning the previous support into resistance. The next major support is located at 1.2750 (better seen on a Daily chart) and the first resistance sits at 1.3000.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead has a lackluster news scene for the Euro and US Dollar and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD
Mark Carney’s speech was postponed for a few hours yesterday but the bullish effect created by the Governor’s attitude was soon dampened by the sellers’ pressure.

Image

Technical Outlook
The pair moved above and below the level at 1.6100 and the day was pretty volatile but neither side made any major advances. The Relative Strength Index continues to trade deep into oversold territory and the possibility of bullish moves has increased but the Pound cannot seem to recover, mostly due to the Scottish independence issue which continues to be a major influence. Minor support sits at 1.6060 while first resistance is located at 1.6160.

Fundamental Outlook
Bank of England Governor alongside members of the Monetary Policy Committee will testify on economic outlook and inflation today at 1:45 pm GMT, before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. Their speeches will most likely have a strong impact on the Pound but the direction will be determined by their answers and attitude. Volatility will probably be high and caution is recommended.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Sep 11, 2014 11:19 am

FOREX NEWS: SHORT TERM RESISTANCE HOLDS. THE PROBABILITY OF NEW LOWS INCREASES


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair showed mixed price action with both the bulls and the bears battling for control. No major indicators were released and price couldn’t break minor resistance but the sellers didn’t manage to threaten support either.

Image

Technical Outlook
Price action established the zone around 1.2960 as short term resistance and this will be the first barrier in front of higher prices. Yesterday we saw another rejection off of this level but further bullish movement is not out of the question and a break of the mentioned level will most likely bring in additional buyers. To the downside, the first level of interest sits at 1.2860 and a break would show that bears still have some steam left and that price will continue to move south, towards 1.2750.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s direction will be influenced by Mario Draghi’s speech scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. The ECB President will speak in Milan at the Eurofi Financial Forum 2014 and any reference regarding the current Euro Zone situation will most likely trigger a response in the market. Keep in mind that the relatively late hour of the speech may be a reason why impact could be mild; however, if Draghi’s position will be straightforward, the market impact will be strong so we recommend caution.


GBP/USD
After a touch of support, the pair headed north yesterday on the back of a hawkish attitude shown by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney during the Inflation Report Hearings.

Image

Technical Outlook
Although we had some bullish action yesterday, the pair didn’t manage to break the short term resistance located at 1.6160. This might be a sign that downside movement is next, aiming for 1.6060 support, but we must note the position of the Relative Strength Index which is now coming out of oversold territory for the first time in a long period, a fact which favors the bulls. However, bearish price action is anticipated, considering the strong downtrend the pair is in.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for the day so price direction will be influenced by the technical factors.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Sep 12, 2014 4:56 pm

FOREX NEWS: TODAY’S HEADLINE – THE AMERICAN RETAIL SALES


EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro had a bullish day yesterday but price remained between support and resistance for almost the entire duration of the trading session.

Image

Technical Outlook
Today we expect a break of either the resistance at 1.2960 or the support at 1.2860 but the direction will be mainly influenced by the outcome of the American Retail Sales which will have a strong impact on the greenback. Major support sits at 1.2750 and we expect this level to be touched in the near future but not necessarily today.

Fundamental Outlook
As mentioned above, the American Retail Sales are released today and the outcome could influence the US Dollar heavily. The scheduled time is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.3%, better than last month’s 0.0%. Sales made at a retail level represent the major part of the economy and the release is considered a major market mover; at the same time, the Core version of this indicator (which excludes automobiles from calculation) is released. For both versions, higher values normally strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The Pound continues to be heavily influenced by speculation regarding Scottish independence and yesterday we saw bullish movement on the back of a new poll which showed that more people wish that Scotland remains a part of the United Kingdom.

Image

Technical Outlook
Lately the technical aspect was overshadowed by the Scottish independence issue and this is likely to be a reason for speculation until the referendum result will be posted next week. For the time being, we can see some sort of rejection off of the resistance at 1.6750 and bearish divergence is present, so we anticipate a move lower which will probably find support at 1.6160 but a break of the current level could generate additional movement north.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major news releases for the Pound today, thus price direction will be influenced by the US events and the technical aspect.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 2064
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

PreviousNext

Return to What Do You Think? Your 2 Cents...

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Yahoo [Bot]