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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:55 am

FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE BRINGS A SLOW MONDAY


EUR/USD
United States’ Producer Price Index released Friday posted a value which was anticipated and the event didn’t have a huge impact on the US Dollar. The day lacked major developments and price action was mostly ranging.

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Technical Outlook
The pair remained confined between 1.3400 resistance and 1.3330 support but another attempt to break resistance was made; however, this attempt didn’t succeed and the week finished very close to the mentioned level. For the time being, the bulls lack the strength needed to shift the balance in their favor and another encounter with 1.3330 support is a high probability scenario, especially if today resistance is not clearly broken

Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event of the day is the release of the German Bundesbank Monthly Report which usually contains notes about economic conditions and an economic outlook. The release is scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and has a higher impact if the point of view expressed differs from the one of the European Central Bank.


GBP/USD
The second estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product released Friday didn’t surprise in any way and the pair had a slow day, without major direction changes.

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Technical Outlook
The pair is trading close to 1.6700, a level which acts like a magnet for price for the time being. For today we anticipate more of the ranging movement experienced Friday but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory on a four-hour chart and on a Daily chart it still shows an oversold condition. This favors bullish action for the day and increases the chances of a move above 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any high-impact releases for the day, thus price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Aug 19, 2014 11:51 am

FOREX NEWS: INFLATION INDICATORS IN THE SPOTLIGHT


EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro had a tough first day of the week against the Dollar and we saw the pair travel south after a slow start of the session; however, major support is still intact.

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Technical Outlook
It is clearer now that 1.3400 resistance cannot be broken for the time being and that 1.3330 support is the next target of the pair. We can see several four-hour candles with long upper wicks, a fact that indicates rejection and on top of that, once price started to move south, it did so with strong momentum (full bearish candles). The day’s direction will be also affected by the fundamental scene which becomes busier today.

Fundamental Outlook
An important inflation gauge is released today by the United States: the Consumer Price index. This indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods they purchase and basically shows the buying power of the US Dollar. The event is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and a drop is anticipated, from the previous 0.3% to 0.1%; if this comes true, the greenback will most likely weaken against its counterparts.


GBP/USD
The week opened with a gap to the upside, a fact generated by a Sunday Times interview with Mark Carney who reignited speculation of a rate hike.

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Technical Outlook
More often than not, weekly gaps tend to be filled, thus another move below 1.6700 might be in order. However, the time factor is not known, meaning that even if the gap will be closed, we cannot know when this is going to happen. For the time being, 1.6700 is not clearly broken and at least a touch of this level will probably occur today.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index will also be released today, at 8:30 am GMT. Inflation in the UK is close to BOE’s targeted range but the indicator is important nonetheless because it is taken into consideration when the interest rate decision is made. Today’s expected change is 1.8% while last month’s was 1.9% and lower numbers usually weaken the Pound.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Aug 20, 2014 11:47 am

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AND POUND PRONE TO SHARP MOVES. MEETING MINUTES HOLD CENTER STAGE


EUR/USD
Forex News: Positive data released yesterday by the American economy allowed the US Dollar to continue to gain ground against its counterparts and yesterday we saw a clear break of support.

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Technical Outlook
The recent break of 1.3330 support is likely a true one but before price can travel south, we need to see a retest of the recently broken level. Adding to this short term bullish view is the oversold condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index on the four hour chart above. If the retest results in a bounce lower, the first target is represented by 1.3295 key level.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day will be the release of FOMC’s Meeting Minutes which will offer insights into the reasons which affected their latest decision regarding the interest rate and will possibly contain hints about future monetary policy direction. The release is scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT and a high impact is anticipated.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising drop and as a result the Pound weakened substantially against the greenback, taking the pair below support.

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Technical Outlook
Similar to the EUR/USD, we anticipate a bullish retracement before the downside momentum will resume; however, the control clearly belongs to the bears so any moves north should be considered simple pullbacks for the time being. The Relative Strength Index is below 30 again, favoring short term retracements into the first potential resistance located around 1.6660.

Fundamental Outlook
The Bank of England will release today at 8:30 am GMT the details of their latest votes on interest rate and Asset Purchase Facility. If all 9 members voted to keep the rate unchanged, it could mean that an increase will not be seen in the immediate future. If the members’ opinions start to diverge, the release will have a higher impact that usual. The FOMC Meeting Minutes will also have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Aug 21, 2014 11:35 am

FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR CAPITALIZES ON A HAWKISH FED ATTITUDE


EUR/USD
The pair continued to slide lower during the day, before the FOMC Minutes which further strengthened the US Dollar as the Fed showed optimism regarding the job market and inflation.

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Technical Outlook
We saw a new low of the year reached by the pair and for the time being the bears are dominating the market. The key support at 1.3295 was clearly broken and if price returns to it for a retest and successfully bounces lower, we might see a touch of 1.3200 in the near future. Keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is deep in oversold territory, a fact which favors a touch from below of 1.3295.

Fundamental Outlook
The French Manufacturing PMI is released early at 7:00 am GMT and expected to climb slightly from 47.8 to 47.9. It will be followed half an hour later by the German indicator with the same name, which is expected to drop from the previous 52.4 to 51.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health for two of the most important countries in the Euro Zone and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey will be announced at 2:00 pm GMT and a hefty drop is anticipated, from the previous 23.9 to 19.7. The survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and usually, its importance is increased if the actual numbers differ a lot from the anticipated ones.

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GBP/USD
Bank of England’s Minutes released yesterday showed that 2 out of 9 members voted for a rate increase, a fact which boosted the Pound higher but the hawkish attitude of the FOMC Meeting Minutes allowed the pair to move lower.

Technical Outlook
The zone around 1.6660 is now confirmed resistance since yesterday we saw clear rejection off that level and the Dollar run might extend into the support located at 1.6550. A lot depends on the Retail Sales numbers and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Retail Sales numbers come out today at 8:30 am GMT with a positive change expected, from the previous 0.1% to 0.4%. Such an increase will further strengthen the Pound as sales made at a retail level represent the major part of economic activity.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Aug 22, 2014 11:19 am

FOREX NEWS: THE SECOND DAY OF THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM BRINGS US TWO IMPORTANT SPEECHES


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the bulls although Philadelphia Manufacturing data was better than anticipated, a fact which would normally benefit the US Dollar. However, major levels were not threatened.

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Technical Outlook
The current bullish move is likely to continue until 1.3295 is touched. The next potential turning point is 1.3330 but this move is considered just a retracement to the downtrend which was overextended and in need of a breather. The low at 1.3240 will act as potential support if the downtrend resumes and the next key level is located at 1.3200.

Fundamental Outlook
Today is the second day of the Jackson Hole Symposium and probably the most important one because both Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver speeches at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Yellen’s speech is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT while Draghi’s will follow at 6:30 pm GMT; the main topic for both speeches will be the labor market, which is always a delicate subject that can strongly influence the market so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD
The pair ranged for almost the entire day, with a slightly bullish bias despite the fact that Retail Sales dropped during the previous month.

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Technical Outlook
There is still room for the pair to move to the upside as no major resistance is near current price, but on the other hand, 1.6550 support is very close and it will most likely act as a magnet for price. A lot depends on Janet Yellen’s speech, which will probably influence heavily the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for the day and market participants will focus on the two important speeches mentioned above.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:16 pm

FOREX NEWS: THE POUND EXPERIENCES IRREGULAR VOLATILITY AS UK BANKS ARE CLOSED


EUR/USD
Forex News: During her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen mentioned improvements in the US labor market and suggested that the economy is healing while ECB President Mario Draghi signaled that the European economy is still not back on track.

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Technical Outlook
The comments of the two bankers generated a sharp drop for the pair, after an almost perfect bounce off of 1.3295 level which was previous support, now turned resistance. The first lower target and support is located at 1.3200 but at the moment the pair is diverging from the Relative Strength Index as we can notice a lower low printed by price and a higher low made by the indicator. This is known as regular divergence and in this case is indicative of a potential bullish retracement. However, two important economic indicators come out today and price movement will be affected by their readings.

Fundamental Outlook
The first release of the day is the German IFO Business Climate, a confidence survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses. This large sample makes the survey a well respected one and increases its importance. The release is scheduled at 8:00 am GMT and the anticipated number is 107.1, a small decrease from the previous 108.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales numbers come out, with an anticipated change to 426K from the previous 406K. Better than expected numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar as they indicate that consumers are confident in economic conditions and they can afford a house.


GBP/USD
The pair was also affected by Yellen’s comments but not as much as the EUR/USD and overall we had a slow Friday, with mostly ranging price action.

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Technical Outlook
We expect the pair to touch the level at 1.6550 today but we don’t anticipate a lot of movement as banks in the United Kingdom will be closed, celebrating Summer Bank Holiday. The first level of interest to the upside is 1.6600 but we might experience irregular volatility and low liquidity, making price action hard to predict.

Fundamental Outlook
As mentioned above, banks in the United Kingdom will be closed and no economic indicators will be released today but the pair will be affected by the US New Home Sales release.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:25 am

FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND’S “FATE” RESTS ON AMERICAN CONFIDENCE INDICATORS


EUR/USD
Forex News: The indicators released yesterday for both the European and American economies posted worse than expected values but not much action was seen and the pair ranged almost the entire day.

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Technical Outlook
The week opened with a gap to the downside and more often than not, these gaps tend to be filled (price climbs to the point where the gap originated) so we might see a move into 1.3220. The regular divergence is still present as price is showing a lower low while the Relative Price Index is making higher lows and we have an oversold condition of the pair. These factors, combined with the strength of 1.3200 support will probably generate a bullish day.

Fundamental Outlook
The Dollar will be affected today by the release of the Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to increase substantially from last month’s 1.7% to 7.4%. An increased number of such orders shows that producers will have to speed up their activity to fill those orders and also that consumers are confident enough to buy long lasting goods.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence is released, showing the state of the public opinion regarding current and future economic conditions. Increased or high confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending because usually people tend to spend more when they are confident about their economic situation. The anticipated value is 89.1 while the previous was 90.9.


GBP/USD
Despite the fact that banks in the United Kingdom were closed yesterday, the Pound managed to retrace higher after a failed break of 1.6550 support.

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Technical Outlook
The week opened with a downside gap which was quickly filled after a bounce off of 1.6550 support zone but 1.6600 resistance stopped the upwards momentum. A stronger bullish move is still anticipated but if today the pair cannot break decisively the level at 1.6600, the downtrend might resume. The first lower barrier is of course 1.6550.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Bankers’ Association will announce today at 8:30 am GMT the Mortgage Approvals numbers. Lately the house market has been closely watched by the Bank of England and Mortgage Approvals are in close relation with house purchases because usually a mortgage is often used for such a purchase. More mortgages suggest that people are willing to buy houses and that loans can be obtained, facts which are beneficial for the British economy and hence for the Pound. Today’s expected number is 44.2K, a small increase from the previous 43.3.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Aug 27, 2014 2:17 pm

FOREX NEWS: MARKET IN CONSOLIDATION PHASE. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED


EUR/USD
Forex News: The Durable Goods Orders showed a much better than anticipated value yesterday but the Core version of the same indicator, which excludes transportation items, posted a surprising drop and all this generated mostly sideways price action.

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Technical Outlook
The bullish divergence is still present and the level at 1.3200 seems strong as the pair couldn’t break it decisively. On top of that, the weekly gap is still not closed so bullish moves are still expected but yesterday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints about future direction so for the time being we are neutral on the pair, expecting a break of the consolidation pattern created around 1.3200.

Fundamental Outlook
The day ahead is very slow in terms of economic releases and the only notable indicator is the GFK German Consumer Climate scheduled at 6:00 am GMT. Its value is expected to drop slightly from the precious 9.0 to 8.9 and better than expected figures are usually beneficial for the Euro but the indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market.


GBP/USD
The British Bankers’ Association Mortgage Approvals were fewer than anticipated but the figure didn’t differ much from analysts’ expectations and it didn’t create a huge impact as a result.

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Technical Outlook
The bulls failed to take price above 1.6600 minor resistance but on the other hand, the bears didn’t succeed to break 1.6550 and this shows that indecision is currently governing the pair. These two levels will be important for today’s price action and a break of either one will probably generate an extended move in that direction. A conservative approach would be to expect the retest after the initial break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic indicator releases for the day, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:13 pm

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION AND AMERICAN GDP – CATALYSTS FOR A BREAKOUT


EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro managed to recover yesterday from an almost one-year low on the back of comments made by German finance minister who said that Mario Draghi’s latest speech was “over-interpreted”. This spurred interest for the single currency and took the pair into 1.3200 resistance.\

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Technical Outlook
Yesterday we saw a bearish break of 1.3200 support zone but developments during the day took price back into the mentioned zone for a retest. After a breakout, a retest of the recently broken level is common and usually, this retest shows if the break is sustainable or if it was just a fake. The bullish divergence is still present and the weekly gap is still not closed, so if price moves above 1.3200, we might see it climb at least until the gap is closed.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Consumer Price Index is released today at 12:00 pm GMT and analysts expect it to remain unchanged at 0.8%. German inflation contributes to overall Euro Zone inflation and lately it has been one of ECB’s major concerns; the Euro would benefit from higher values of the German CPI.

The United States will announce their Preliminary Gross Domestic Product today at 12:30 pm GMT and a minor decrease from 4.0% to 3.9% is expected. Since the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge, better than expected values have the potential to strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD
The pair failed to break out of the tight range and instead bounced between support and resistance for the entire day as no major news affected either of the two currencies.

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Technical Outlook
For today, a breakout is a high probability scenario but the direction will probably be determined by the US Gross Domestic Product. Yesterday we saw that price touched 1.6550 support and immediately moved up to test 1.6600 but failed to break this level as well. This shows indecision and the fact that price needs some sort of catalyst which will generate a break of either one of the levels mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important news for today thus market participants will focus on the American events which are likely to trigger strong moves.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:04 pm

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA LIKELY TO PUT AN END TO THE CONSOLIDATION PHASE


EUR/USD
Forex News: German inflation stalled, just as analysts expected but the American Gross Domestic Product showed a surprising increase, spurring demand for the greenback and taking the pair below 1.3200 support.

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Technical Outlook
The move above 1.3200 couldn’t be sustained by the bulls and price soon dropped below the level but the weekly gap is still not closed so we might see further upside movement. For the time being price is confined between 1.3150 and 1.3220, without clear direction, thus market participants will probably focus on the fundamental aspect which will most likely dictate the next direction.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the main gauge of European inflation is released: the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index. For quite a long time inflation has been lower than ECB’s target of just below 2.0% and if it continues to drop we are likely to see more stimulus added by the ECB, a thing considered bearish for the Euro. Today’s anticipated change is 0.3% while last month’s value was 0.4% and the time of the release is 9:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD
Surprisingly, the positive change of the American Gross Domestic Product didn’t do much for the pair and the US Dollar couldn’t gain substantially against the Pound.

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Technical Outlook
A breakout is still anticipated but for the time being price movement is still caped by 1.6600 resistance and 1.6550 support. The Relative Strength Index is moving close to the 50 level and doesn’t show an extreme condition of the market, thus it doesn’t offer a lot of hints about the next move and we maintain our view that a clear breakout, followed by a retest of the broken level, will generate an extended move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook
The Nationwide Building Society will announce today the change in the selling price of UK homes purchased with mortgages provided by this Society. The indicator acts as a measure of house market inflation and it’s a leading gauge of health for the housing industry. The release is scheduled at 6:00 am GMT, with an anticipated change of 0.0% while the previous was 0.1%; higher values usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
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