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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Aug 04, 2014 11:49 am

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENED BY EMPLOYMENT FIGURES. POUND AFFECTED BY CONSTRUCTION DATA


EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s main event was without a doubt the disappointing number shown by the US Non Farm Payrolls (actual 209K; expected 231K). As a result, the US Dollar weakened and the pair moved above resistance.

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Technical Outlook
Today we expect a quiet day, with mostly ranging price action as the pair will probably take a “breather” after Friday’s strong move. However, the latest momentum favors the bulls and the first barrier in front of rising prices is located at 1.3445; support sits at 1.3400 but we don’t expect this level to be broken today.

Fundamental Outlook
The fundamental scene lacks major economic indicators today and this fact adds to our belief that price will not make any spectacular advances.


GBP/USD
The Pound was weakened Friday by a worse than anticipated Manufacturing PMI and that’s why the bulls couldn’t capitalize on the disappointing value of the US Non Farm Payrolls. The day belonged to the bears as price closed lower than the opening of the day.

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Technical Outlook
Pound weakness continues to be seen and the bears continue to dominate although the US economy shows signs of contraction and the Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time. First potential support is represented by Friday’s low (1.6809) but today’s price action will be mainly influenced by the value of the Construction PMI.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the day’s only notable indicator of the day is released: United Kingdom’s Construction PMI. This is a survey derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Construction sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The anticipated value is 62.1 which is a decrease from the previous 62.6 and lower than expected numbers will most likely weaken the Pound further.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Aug 05, 2014 12:24 pm

FOREX NEWS: ECONOMIC DATA BRINGS PRICE OUT OF MONDAY’S TIGHT RANGE


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session lacked volatility almost completely as the market took a “breather” after Friday’s stronger than usual movement. No economic indicators were released and this contributed to the ranging price action.

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Technical Outlook
The minor resistance created at 1.3445 wasn’t threatened yesterday but this will be the first barrier which the bulls need to break in order to weaken last month’s downtrend. Support is located at 1.3400 and until either one of the mentioned levels is broken, the market will remain in a ranging phase. For the time being our bias is neutral, expecting a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Retail Sales change percentage is released today at 9:00 am GMT and expected o increase to 0.4% from the previous 0.0%. Higher numbers suggest increased economic activity and usually strengthen the Euro as the retail sector is a major part of the European economy.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Non Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers outside of the manufacturing sector about economic and business conditions. The expected value is 56.6, an increase from the previous 56.0 and under normal circumstances, higher than anticipated values are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Construction PMI showed yesterday a slightly better than anticipated reading and as a result the Pound climbed but overall we had a slow trading day.

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Technical Outlook
For the time being the bulls lack the strength needed to reverse the medium term downtrend and we are likely to see another encounter with the support located at 1.6809. If this potential encounter will occur, and support will hold, price is likely to shoot up, considering the fact that the pair needs a bullish correction after such an extended drop as the one seen during the last month.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Services PMI is announced today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to increase from the previous 57.7 to 58.1. The indicator is an index derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector regarding current and future business conditions and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Readings above 50 indicate optimism and numbers above estimates usually strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Aug 06, 2014 11:22 am

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS ADVANCE. EURO BULLS FIGHT BACK


EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar gained against most of its counterparts as yesterday’s reports showed improvements for the US economy and traders’ interest for the American currency was renewed.

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Technical Outlook
The pair fell for almost the entire day and the downtrend has new found strength as 1.3400 support was clearly broken. The next important support level is located at 1.3295 but the current level of 1.3365 is very likely to stop short term movement as we will probably see price stall here. The day ahead lacks major economic releases thus ranging price action might be in order.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Factory Orders are announced at 6:00 am GMT and expected to increase from -1.7% to 0.5%, a fact which would benefit the Euro; later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Trade Balance is released, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The expected figure is -44.2B and values closer to zero will most likely strengthen the greenback. Both indicators usually have a medium-impact on the market but surprising numbers can increase their importance.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Services PMI posted a better than expected value and momentarily strengthened the Pound; however, the rally couldn’t be continued and the Dollar erased some of the Pound’s early gains.

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Technical Outlook
The first logical place where downwards motion can be resumed is the resistance located at 1.6920, but considering the way the pair has been moving lately, we might see this resumption occur before the level is hit. The US Dollar is strong at the moment and bullish moves should be regarded as corrections, not reversals of the medium term downtrend. The first level of interest to the downside is 1.6809.

Fundamental Outlook
The main Pound-affecting event of the day is the release of the UK Manufacturing Production which is expected to change to 0.7% from last month’s -1.3%. The indicator measures change in the output produced by the manufacturing sector and is considered a high-impact indicator; the time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and better values will most likely strengthen the Pound.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Aug 07, 2014 12:21 pm

FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE: THE DAY’S MOST INFLUENTIAL EVENT


EUR/USD
Forex News: The Euro dropped yesterday as the German Factory Orders showed an extremely disappointing figure, while demand for the US Dollar increased on the back of a better than expected value of the American Trade Balance.

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Technical Outlook
After a brief stall at 1.3365 minor support, the pair resumed bearish price action and broke the level with relative ease. If this previous minor support will turn into resistance today (after a test from below, followed by a potential bounce lower), the next target will become the key level at 1.3295, but today price direction will be heavily influenced by Mario Draghi’s speech at the ECB Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:45 am GMT the ECB will announce their decision regarding the Interest Rate (no change is anticipated) but the real market mover will probably be the Press Conference held 45 minutes later. ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and afterwards, he will answer journalists’ questions about monetary policy, rate changes and economic recovery plans. This second part of the Press Conference is usually the one that creates the highest volatility as traders around the world try to interpret Draghi’s attitude and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time because price action can be erratic during the Conference.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Manufacturing output showed a figure of 0.3%, lower than the anticipated 0.7%, a fact which weakened the Pound and allowed the US Dollar to resume the pair’s downwards movement.

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Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance around 1.6885 and the first support is located at 1.6809. The medium term downtrend seems to be resumed but as a confirmation, the level at 1.6809 must be broken today. Bearish pressure is present and the Pound is weakened by the latest disappointing figures but a major role will be played today by the BOE decision regarding the interest rate.

Fundamental Outlook
At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate and although no changes are anticipated (currently the rate is set at 0.50%), the event is likely to generate some volatility. The outcome of the rate decision is somewhat known as almost all analysts expect it to remain unchanged but caution is recommended nonetheless.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:22 pm

FOREX NEWS: THE WEEK FINISHES WITH THE GREENBACK IN CONTROL


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s ECB Press Conference generated mixed movement as the pair reversed direction several times. ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that rates in Europe will remain lower for a longer period than they will in the United States.

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Technical Outlook
The Euro was weakened by Mario Draghi’s comments and this bearish momentum is likely to continue throughout today’s session. First support and barrier in front of falling prices is located in the zone around 1.3330 and a break would open the door for a move into the more important support located at 1.3295; first resistance is represented by the level at 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a calm day ahead as far as economic news releases are concerned. Price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.

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GBP/USD
The Bank of England maintained the interest rate value unchanged and as a result the event didn’t create volatility or strong directional movement.

Technical Outlook
The pair remained confined between 1.6885 resistance and 1.6809 support. Today we are likely to see a breakout which will probably favor the bears, considering the fact that the medium term trend is down. The next major support is located at 1.6700 but we don’t expect such a distance to be traveled in one day even if 1.6809 is broken decisively; first resistance is represented by the top created around 1.6885.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Trade Balance is released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the difference between imported and exported goods. The indicator is considered to have a mild impact but higher numbers than the anticipated -8.9B will most likely strengthen the Pound, driving the pair higher.
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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Aug 11, 2014 11:55 am

FOREX NEWS: IRAQ TENSIONS MAKE THEIR MARK ON THE CURRENCY MARKET


EUR/USD
US planes bombed several military targets in Iraq as tensions escalated and the Americans intervened in order to prevent a massacre of religious minorities. The Dollar was negatively affected by these events and the pair climbed Friday for the entire day.

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Technical Outlook
At the moment market participants are moving to safe-haven assets as the UD Dollar is considered too volatile and risky. The current rally is likely to continue thru 1.3445 resistance if the political situation doesn’t calm down; the Dollar’s movement will be highly affected by this new tension and S/R levels might be broken with ease so we recommend caution for the next days.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic indicators and we expect slow movement but a lot depends on the developments in Iraq.


GBP/USD
Minor support was broken and the Pound weakened Friday against the greenback although the latter was affected by the Iraq crisis.

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Technical Outlook
The bearish move is overextended as the Relative Strength Index is again trading in oversold territory. Today we are likely to see a move higher which can find resistance at the recently broken level of 1.6809 but, as mentioned above, price will be prone to sudden changes of direction, depending on Iraq developments. First support is located at 1.6700 but this level is not likely to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases today but we recommend caution, considering the political environment.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Aug 12, 2014 12:46 pm

FOREX NEWS: GERMANY’S ZEW SURVEY IN THE FOCUS


EUR/USD
Yesterday the pair grinded lower but movement was very sluggish as the day didn’t have any major news releases and tensions in Iraq and Ukraine eased.

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Technical Outlook
Price returned below 1.3400, a fact which shows that bulls lack the strength needed to stage a full scale reversal. Lately the pair is confined between 1.3445 resistance and 1.3330 support but we slightly favor a move into the mentioned support, especially if the bears can maintain price below the current level of 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s only major event is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey based on the opinions of German analysts and institutional investors and it’s focused on their opinions regarding a 6 month outlook. The nature of their jobs keeps them highly informed on the economic situation and at the same time, increases the importance of this survey. The expected number is 18.2, a significant decrease from the previous 27.1 and lower numbers will most likely weaken the Euro.


GBP/USD
The pair had an extremely slow day yesterday and no major developments took place on either the fundamental or the technical scene.

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Technical Outlook
We expect a touch of 1.6809 resistance before downside movement can resume and it is important to note that price is printing lower lows while the Relative Strength Index is showing higher lows, a behavior known as regular bullish divergence. Often times this divergence results in moves north but the medium term downtrend is strong so we are likely to see bearish movement after an upside correction.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important indicators for the day thus the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:20 pm

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY RETAIL SALES FIGURES, POUND INFLUENCED BY CARNEY’S SPEECH


EUR/USD
The German ZEW survey disappointed drastically by posting a reading of 8.6, while the anticipated number was 18.2 and as a result the Euro lost ground in front of the greenback for almost the entire day.

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Technical Outlook
As soon as price came in close vicinity of 1.3330 support, a bullish reaction could be seen and this indicates that price may stall or even reverse at this level. The medium term downtrend is bearish but a new low couldn’t be established since last week and the pair is at a crossroad: a break of 1.3330 will most likely take price into 1.3295 key support while a bounce would suggest that 1.3400 will be revisited.

Fundamental Outlook
The US Retail Sales will be the day’s main event for the pair. Higher values suggest a thriving economy where people are comfortable spending and this fuels further economic activity. The scheduled time of the release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2%, same as last month; better than anticipated values usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
As expected the Pound bounced higher yesterday, completing a bullish retracement which took price into the first minor resistance. No major economic indicators were released and the move was mostly generated by technical factors.

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Technical Outlook
We are faced with a bounce-or-break scenario at the current level of 1.6809 and from a technical point of view a drop would be in order since yesterday’s move was just a correction to the downtrend. A bullish break of the current level will make 1.6885 the next target while a bounce lower will probably take the pair close to the major support at 1.6700.

Fundamental Outlook
Price direction will be heavily influenced today by UK’s Claimant Count Change, an indicator which tracks changes in the number of unemployed people compared to the last month. It will be released at 8:30 am GMT with an anticipated change of -29.7 (previous -36.3) and higher numbers will most likely weaken the Pound. An hour later the BOE will release the Inflation Report and Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech regarding its contents. This is likely to be the main event of the day for the Pound, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:13 pm

FOREX NEWS: EURO BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT FOR THE RELEASE OF THE GERMAN GDP


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar weakened on the back of a disappointing figure shown by the Retail Sales and this allowed the pair to climb above 1.3400 support.

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Technical Outlook
As we saw, even if 1.3400 was pierced yesterday, the bulls couldn’t maintain price above this level and this suggests that we might see more of the ranging movement experienced lately. Another encounter with 1.3330 is very possible now that we’ve seen price rejected by resistance. If 1.3330 is broken, the pair is likely to visit 1.3295, while 1.3400 still remains the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event will be the release of the German Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is scheduled for release at 6:00 am GMT and is expected to decrease from the previous 0.8% to -0.1%. The GDP is considered to be an economy’s main performance gauge and since Germany accounts for the major part of Europe’s economy, lower numbers will most likely have a negative impact on the single currency.


GBP/USD
As revealed by the Inflation Report, the Bank of England cut their expectations for economic growth and also, BOE Governor Carney mentioned that interest rates will not be increased in the near future. The pound weakened significantly as a result and major support was touched.

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Technical Outlook
The key support level at 1.6700 was touched as the pair traveled substantially lower. This huge drop is likely to continue throughout today but it’s also very possible to see a stall before the level will be clearly broken. The Relative Strength Index has reached oversold territory again and we are likely to see some sort of bullish movement. The next support is located at 1.6550, a level visible on a Daily chart.

Fundamental Outlook
There are no major economic releases scheduled for the Pound today and price action will be influenced mostly by the technical aspect.
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Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:55 pm

FOREX NEWS: BOTH PAIRS BELOW RESISTANCE. RETESTS ANTICIPATED


EUR/USD
Forex News: Germany’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product showed a lower than expected value, but despite this, the Euro strengthened throughout the day. However, resistance couldn’t be broken and the pair shows signs of indecision.

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Technical Outlook
The resistance at 1.3400 was pierced again yesterday but, similar to a day before, price returned almost immediately below the level. This shows underlying bearish pressure and warns about a potential drop below the support located at 1.3300. However, if during the day the bulls manage to close a significant candle above 1.3400, we are likely to see a move in close vicinity of 1.3445.

Fundamental Outlook
French and Italian banks will be closed today, celebrating Assumption Day and no major news comes out for the Euro. The US Dollar will be affected by the Producer Price Index which is released at 12:30 pm GMT and is expected to post a change of 0.1% compared with last month’s 0.4%. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by producers will be eventually transmitted to the consumer.

At 1:55 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release the Consumer Sentiment survey based on the opinions of about 500 consumers. The expected figure is 82.7, an increase from the prior 81.8 and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because confidence among consumers is often a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD
The pair had a slow trading session but we saw a new low followed by a bullish retracement which didn’t manage to take price above 1.6700.

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Technical Outlook
Today we expect a test of the level at 1.6700 and this test will decide whether the pair can continue lower towards 1.6550 or a stronger move north is in order. The Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory and this favors bullish moves but the bears control the market at the moment so all moves to the upside should be considered just corrections.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s second estimate of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT. The expected change is 0.8%, same as last month and under normal circumstances, higher numbers benefit the Pound as the GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance.
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