Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Share and discuss your analysis, opinions or simply the gut feeling about the possible market direction, trends and/or possibilities for any reversals in this forum.
Image

Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jul 21, 2014 12:13 pm

FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE TRANSLATES INTO A SLOW MONDAY


EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday’s trading session was characterized by a major reversal of what seemed to be a clear break of support. The US Consumer Sentiment survey showed a small decrease but the release didn’t have major impact on the pair.

Image

Technical Outlook
Once price entered the zone created between 1.3520 and 1.3480 it was immediately rejected higher. This fact shows that bulls still have underlying strength and that a break of support is a low probability occurrence. The Relative Strength Index continues to move upwards, coming from an oversold condition and for today, we expect higher prices but a slow, ranging day is also a distinct possibility since no major economic indicators are released.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Bundesbank will release their Monthly Report at 10:00 am GMT, containing statistical data and analysis of current and future financial conditions. The event tends to have a higher impact if Bundesbank’s viewpoint differs from the one shown by the ECB.


GBP/USD
The pair had mixed direction Friday as the bears controlled the first part of the day but the Pound erased almost all losses during the second part. Support was tested but price was price higher after a brief dip below.

Image

Technical Outlook
The fact that price was rejected after trying to break 1.7063 may very well be a sign that bulls are ready to resume upwards movement and to take the pair into 1.7180 once again. Even if such a move occurs, we don’t believe the entire distance will be traveled in one day and at the moment 1.7095 sits in front of rising prices. We anticipate a ranging day, with price moving above and below the level which was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today, thus price action will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Jul 22, 2014 12:49 pm

FOREX NEWS: MARKET PICKS UP DIRECTION AHEAD OF US INFLATION DATA


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly characterized by indecision and we saw the pair move higher just to drop immediately to touch support again. Overall the direction was mixed and price had ranging behavior.

Image

Technical Outlook
For today we expect a more directional price action as the pair will probably break away from the current level of 1.3520. However, the direction of the move will be mostly influenced by the US economic data due to be released today, because the technical side of the market doesn’t hold any special clues. Yesterday’s high (1.3550) will potentially act as resistance while 1.3520 – 1.3500 zone still acts as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s main event is the release of the US Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. A small change is expected from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would suggest that inflation has slowed down and could potentially weaken the US Dollar. AT 2:00 pm GMT the US Existing Home Sales numbers are released, showing the change in the annualized number of houses sold during the last month. If the number of houses sold increases, this often means that the buyers will spend additional money for furniture, house appliances, electronic devices, etc., thus spurring consumer spending. It also indicates that people are confident in economic conditions since a house is purchased usually when the economy is thriving. Today’s expected number is 4.98M, an increase from last month’s 4.89M.


GBP/USD
The lack of major economic releases generated a ranging day for the GBP/USD as well. Price moved between 1.7095 and 1.7063 without being able to break free for the entire day.

Image

Technical Outlook
If the bears can take price below 1.7063 and at least one four-hour candle will close below this level, we are likely to see a touch of 1.7010 support next. A move above 1.7095 will open the door for uptrend resumption and possibly a touch of 1.7080 resistance zone (even if this comes true, the distance is too big to be traveled in a single day).

Fundamental Outlook
AT 10:00 am GMT the Confederation of British Industry will announce the Industrial Orders Expectations. This is a survey based on the opinions of about 550 manufacturers which shows the expectations of order volume for the next 3 months. Analysts’ forecast is a decrease from the previous 11 to 9, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound if it were to come true.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Jul 23, 2014 1:32 pm

FOREX NEWS: BEARS BREAK SUPPORT. SOME CORRECTION EXPECTED


EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday against the Euro as speculation of Fed increasing interest rates took over the market. The American Consumer Price Index came out as anticipated, at 0.3%.

Image

Technical Outlook
The pair finally broke the support zone created around 1.3500 and is now headed for the next important level of 1.3400 seen on the daily chart above. However, from a four hour chart perspective, the Relative Strength Index has passed the 30 level to the downside once again, suggesting an oversold condition of the market. This indicates that upside corrections are likely to happen today and we expect moves above 1.3480 before price can resume bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
Today price action will be dictated mainly by the technical factors since no major economic indicators are released by either the United States or Europe.


GBP/USD
Price moved below 1.7063 yesterday on the back of US Dollar strength but the gains weren’t as significant as the ones seen against the Euro. The pair continues to lack clear direction but the long term uptrend is severely weakened.

Image

Technical Outlook
The first barrier in front of the bears is located at 1.7010 but for the time being the support at 1.7063 is still not clearly surpassed. The four hour candle has long upper and lower wicks, a fact which indicates indecision and shows that control doesn’t belong to either side completely. The pair’s direction will be decided today by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the votes on the latest BOE interest rate will be made public, showing how many MPC members voted for a rate change and how many voted to keep the rate unchanged. Analysts predict that all 9 members voted to keep rates unchanged and if this forecast comes true, the impact of the release will be mild.

At 11:45 am GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will speak in Glasgow at the Commonwealth Games Trade and Investment conference. As always, his speeches can be accompanied by increased volatility and sudden moves, thus caution is recommended.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:31 pm

FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING DATA BRINGS THE EURO OUT OF CONSOLIDATION PHASE


EUR/USD
Forex News: Price moved sideways for the entire day yesterday as no major economic indicators were released by either the United States or Europe. The trading session was extremely slow and no important levels were broken.

Image

Technical Outlook
The pair almost paused yesterday, consolidating below 1.3480 and moving in a 20 pip range for almost the entire day, making trading very difficult. Also, yesterday’s price action doesn’t add any clues to the pair’s next direction so we maintain our belief that price will correct slightly to the north before dropping further. On a four hour chart the Relative Strength Index is coming out of oversold territory, a fact which adds to the bias showed above.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro will be influenced today by two releases: at 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is scheduled and at 7:30 am GMT, the same indicator for the German economy comes out. The French PMI is expected to increase from 48.2 to 48.5 while the German PMI is anticipated to change from 52.0 to 52.2. These are surveys derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and better readings show optimism, usually strengthening the single currency.


GBP/USD
All members of BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates unchanged but the Minutes of their latest meeting were a bit more dovish than market participants anticipated and the Pound weakened throughout the day as a result.

Image

Technical Outlook
We expect the current direction to continue until 1.7010 is touched as this is the first level of support and it is likely to act as a magnet for price. Yesterday price moved north to touch 1.7095 and immediately bounced lower, showing that this level is now resistance. If the Relative Strength Index will indicate oversold conditions once support is touched, the probability of a move north will increase.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event for the Pound will be the release of UK’s Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Sales made at a retail level represent a major part of the economy and thus hold a great importance for the Pound’s strength. The anticipated change is 0.2%, compared with last month’s -0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound if it were to come true.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Jul 25, 2014 12:31 pm

FOREX NEWS: BEARS IN CONTROL BUT BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the Euro was strongly affected by a German survey which showed that optimism among purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector has increased. The better than expected value reversed a previous drop generated by the French counterpart of the same indicator.

Image

Technical Outlook
At the moment price is re-testing the recently broken level of 1.3480 and if this results in a bounce lower, the level will turn into resistance and the door will be open for a move towards 1.3400 which is the next support. If 1.3480 doesn’t become resistance, the next level that can stop bullish movement is located at 1.3500.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released and expected to show a value of 109.6. The survey draws its importance from the large sample of about 7,000 businesses which are asked to rate the current economic conditions and to give a 6-month outlook. Under normal circumstances, better than anticipated numbers strengthen the Euro and push the pair higher.

The US Durable Goods Orders come out at 12:30 pm GMT and a hefty increase is expected: 0.4% from the previous -0.9%. This is a leading indicator of production since more orders suggest that producers will have to increase their activity in order to fill them.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Retail Sales disappointed as the value was lower than forecast and this fact triggered Pound weakness which took the pair below support.

Image

Technical Outlook
The level at 1.7010 was broken decisively and lower prices may follow, but before that can happen, a pullback to the upside is very probable; the Relative Strength Index has already passed the 30 level, reaching oversold territory, a fact which increases bullish pressure. The first potential resistance is now located at 1.7010 while support sits at 1.6950 followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s most important gauge of economic performance is announced today at 8:30 am GMT: the Gross Domestic Product. No change is expected from last month’s value of 0.8% but any fluctuations will most likely have a big impact.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jul 28, 2014 4:30 pm

FOREX NEWS: MIXED PRICE ACTION AHEAD OF US HOUSE-MARKET DATA


[b]EUR/USD[/b]
Forex News: Friday’s entire trading session was controlled by the bears as the US Dollar benefited from a better than expected value of the Durable Goods Orders and the Euro was weakened by a disappointing German

Image

Technical Outlook
The current direction is likely to remain unchanged until price reaches 1.3400 which is the next support. The Relative Strength Index shows an oversold condition of the pair, a fact which increases the possibility of bullish corrections. If this will be the case, the first place where price can resume downwards motion is the resistance located at 1.3480. It is also possible to see ranging price action, considering the fact that Monday’s are usually slow days and that Friday price moved pretty strong compared to its latest behavior.

Fundamental Outlook
The only notable event of the day is the release of the US Pending Home Sales numbers scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the change in the number of houses under contract to be sold upon the completion of a final transaction and usually a higher value is beneficial to the US Dollar; today’s expected change is -0.2%, a major drop from the previous 6.1%.


GBP/USD
The pair exhibited ranging price action Friday as the release of the American Durable Goods Orders didn’t seem to affect the Pound too much.

Image

Technical Outlook
Price is likely to hit 1.6950 before retracing higher, but if the level will be broken to the downside, the next support is located at 1.6920 and we don’t expect it to be broken today. To the upside the first target is 1.7010 and we might see moves in close vicinity of this level depending on the outcome of the US Pending Home Sales release.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so price will be mainly affected by technical factors and the US house data.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Tue Jul 29, 2014 12:39 pm

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY CONFIDENCE AMONG AMERICAN CONSUMERS


EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s price action was slow and lacked clear direction as both the US Dollar and the Euro were little affected by news and economic indicators. The bulls were slightly more active but price traded in a narrow range.

Image

Technical Outlook
Price is moving upwards, coming from oversold territory and this behavior is likely to continue until the Relative Strength Index will reach its 50 level. The medium term trend is bearish and moves north should be considered just corrections, not a change of trend; resistance is located at 1.3480 and support at 1.3400.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro will not be affected by major news releases today and the US Consumer Confidence will be the main market mover for the Dollar. The survey is scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT and the anticipated value is 85.5, a small increase from the previous 85.2. Confidence among consumers is a leading indicator of consumer spending, thus higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
US Dollar weakness was seen throughout yesterday and the pair moved slowly upwards for almost the entire day. The disappointing value of the US Pending Home Sales also played a role in this bullish move.

Image

Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s price action cleared the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and this opens the door for short term downtrend resumption. The first target to the south is 1.6950, followed by 1.6920 while potential resistance sits at 1.7010. We must keep in mind that from a long term perspective the pair is in a clear uptrend, a fact which increases the chances of bullish moves.

Fundamental Outlook
The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Net Lending to Individuals. This indicator shows the change in the total value of loans granted to consumers and is also a leading indicator of consumer spending. A higher value suggests that consumers are willing to spend money and banks are comfortable granting loans, a fact which usually strengthens the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.6B, a slight decrease from last month’s 2.7B.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Wed Jul 30, 2014 11:33 am

FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A MARKET STORM ARE PRESENT. MAJOR US EVENTS SCHEDULED


EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday on the back of improved American consumer confidence as shown by a report which came out with a reading of 90.9 compared with the anticipated value of 85.5. Sellers controlled the day but the distance traveled wasn’t spectacular.

Image

Technical Outlook
Price is close to the support located at 1.3400 and we consider that today this level will be touched. The technical aspect of the market will be greatly overshadowed by the fundamentals but keep in mind that the Relative Strength Index is moving again below the 30 level, a fact which indicates an oversold market and favors bullish moves. Support is still located at 1.3400 while resistance sits at 1.3480.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to decrease slightly from the previous 0f 0.3% to 0.2%. Such a decrease would be detrimental for the Euro as German inflation accounts for the major part of Euro Zone’s inflation.

The ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released at 12:15 pm GMT, showing the change in the number of jobs created during the last month. The report is put together by a privately owned company and tries to mimic the more important Government issued data which comes out 2 days later. The expected number is 234K and better numbers usually
strengthen the greenback.

At 12:30 pm GMT the American Advance Gross Domestic Product is announced with a hefty increase expected: 3.1% while last month’s value was -2.9%. Such a big change would benefit the Dollar as the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and this is the earliest version which usually has the highest impact.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the American interest rate is announced but no change is anticipated and the FOMC Statement which accompanies the rate decision will be a more important market mover as it outlines possible future rate changes and the pace of the bond-buying program.


GBP/USD
The Pound was little affected by economic releases yesterday and Dollar strength took the pair below minor support.

Image

Technical Outlook
A strong support level is ahead: 1.6920; price is likely to stall or even reverse here, considering also the position of the Relative Strength Index, but as we mentioned above, the US Dollar will be highly affected today by economic data and the technical aspect will be secondary. The next strong and confirmed support (if 1.6920 is broken) is located at 1.6700 while first resistance sits at 1.7010.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases and all eyes will be focused on the United States.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Thu Jul 31, 2014 11:00 am

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT TURNS RESISTANCE? PRICE ACTION WILL TELL


EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar gained on the back of a value of the American Gross Domestic Product which surpassed analysts’ expectations. During the Fed announcements the greenback initially added to previous gains but it soon started to weaken, given the dovish attitude of the Statement.

Image

Technical Outlook
Support at 1.3400 was broken during the day but price immediately returned to test it from below. The cluster of data released yesterday didn’t create unidirectional movement and this brings us to a crossroad: if previous support will turn into resistance, price will likely continue downwards into the next major support which is located at 1.3295, but otherwise, the break of support will prove to be a false one and the pair will be headed north. For the time being, yesterday’s low located at 1.3366 might act as minor support.

Fundamental Outlook
The fundamental scene calms down a bit today as the only major event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. ECB’s target for inflation is just below 2.0% and the current value is considered too low, thus an even lower number would be detrimental for the Euro and would most likely drive the pair south.


GBP/USD
US Dollar strength seen throughout the day allowed the bears to break the major support located at 1.6290 but once the FOMC Statement was released, the Pound managed to erase some of the previous losses.

Image

Technical Outlook
If the break of 1.6920 wasn’t a false one and it can be sustained, it means that a major victory was scored by the bears and the medium term balance shifts in their favor. Note that the Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and tries to move out of it, a fact which favors bullish moves and if these types of moves occur, the first resistance and target is located at 1.6950.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

Re: Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Fri Aug 01, 2014 2:12 pm

FOREX NEWS: NON FARM PAYROLLS – THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER


[color=#000080]EUR/USD[/color]
Forex News: The pair had mixed direction yesterday as the Euro was weakened by a disappointing value of the Consumer Price Index, but apparently the US Dollar wasn’t strong enough to take the pair significantly lower.

Image

Technical Outlook
From a four-hour chart perspective the pair is in a clear downtrend but signs of weakness are present although the support at 1.3400 was broken and was tested from below several times (visible on the lower time frames). A sign of weakness is the fact that bears failed to break the low at 1.3366 even if 1.3400 turned into resistance; also, the Relative Strength Index spent a lot of time hugging the 30 level which suggests an oversold market. However, today’s direction will be decided by the fundamental rather than the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The day’s market moving event is the release of the US Non Farm Payrolls which is the most important jobs-related data for the US economy and tracks changes in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming sector. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 230K while last month’s number was 288K. Such a decrease would weaken the greenback and drive the pair higher.


GBP/USD
The Pound continued to lose ground to the US Dollar yesterday and we saw the bears in control for the most part of the day. Broken support was successfully re-tested from below and price bounced lower.

Image

Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is trading below the 30 level for an extended period of time and the short term downtrend is in need of a retracement higher. Yesterday’s low will most likely act as minor support and if today the bears don’t manage to break it, we will most likely see higher prices. The US Dollar will be highly affected by the NFP release and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to drop slightly from the previous 57.5 to 57.2. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health so better than expected numbers will probably strengthen the Pound.
User avatar
GDMFX
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:02 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand

PreviousNext

Return to What Do You Think? Your 2 Cents...

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], FOREXBROKERINC, GDMFX, Google [Bot], HFblogNews, Husam, Yahoo [Bot]

cron