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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Tifia Daily Market Analytics
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:40 am
by TifiaFX
XAU/USD: gold is falling in price
03/08/2017
Current dynamics

The focus of traders today is the meeting of the Bank of England. As expected, the central bank of Great Britain will keep the key interest rate unchanged after the Bank of England lowered the rate to a record low of 0.25% one year ago. Due to weak inflation and modest economic growth, most representatives of the Central Bank are expected to continue to oppose higher rates. The decision on the rates will be published at 11:00 (GMT), and at 11:30 (GMT) a press conference will begin, during which the Bank of England's head Mark Carney will outline the bank's position on the future of monetary policy in the UK, Current economic situation in the country. In the period from 11:00 to 12:00 (GMT), a surge in volatility is expected not only in pound trade, but throughout the financial market.
After this, the attention of traders will shift to tomorrow's publication (12:30 GMT) of data from the labor market in the US for July. The dollar recovered slightly in the foreign exchange market during the Asian session and after the report on the change in the number of employees (from ADP) was published yesterday. This report indicated an improvement in the labor market situation in the US in July (+178,000 new employees in the private sector of the US against growth of 191,000 in June and a forecast of +185,000). The index of the dollar WSJ rose in the morning by 0.1%.
Also today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45 and 14:00 (GMT) of the US data (business activity indices from Markit and ISM in the services sector for July and the level of production orders in June). If the data comes out with positive values, it will be of great importance for the dollar on the eve of tomorrow's publication of data from the labor market in the United States.
It is expected that unemployment fell by 0.1% in July to 4.3%, while the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy increased by 183 000 in July. These are very strong indicators.
As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester stated yesterday, one should adhere to the planned course of monetary policy, The basic fundamental indicators of economic growth remain strong, which speaks in favor of strong economic growth next year. "I think it will be necessary to further curtail soft policy by gradually raising the rates for federal funds", Mester added.
The prospect of raising rates puts pressure on prices for precious metals and stimulates dollar purchases. At the same time, the domestic political uncertainty in the US, connected with the difficulties in implementing President Donald Trump's presidential campaign to stimulate the US economy, contradictory indicators of the US economic indicators put pressure on the dollar and support the gold quotes. Gold does not bring interest income. But in periods of a soft monetary policy, the demand for gold, which has the status of a safe haven during periods of political instability, is growing.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the month on the daily chart of the pair XAU/USD formed "Doge" and 2 more consecutively decreasing candles. The pair XAU / USD could not break the upper boundary of the descending channel on the daily chart near the level of 1273.00 and is deployed inside the channel.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts went to the side of sellers. In case of an increase in negative dynamics and breakdown of support levels of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the wave of decline from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart),
1242.00 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), the pair XAU / USD will again return to the downtrend with immediate targets at support levels 1229.00, 1220.00 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 1205.00 (July lows).
In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1273.00, 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), the pair XAU / USD will go to the level of 1295.00 (highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels 1185.00 and 1295.00).
Support levels: 1260.00, 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1255.00. Stop-Loss 1267.00. Take-Profit 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Buy Stop 1267.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:43 am
by TifiaFX
DJIA: US indices grow on the eve of NFP
04/08/2017

Current dynamics

In anticipation of the publication of the monthly report on the US labor market, which will be released today at 12:30 (GMT), there is a sluggish dynamics in the financial markets. Today's data may be key to the dynamics of the dollar and US stock indices. It is expected that in July there were 180,000 new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the economy (in June the increase was 222,000 seats).
Market attention will also be focused on data on wages in the US. It is expected that hourly wages in the US in July increased by 0.3% compared with June.
If the data on the labor market coincides with the forecast or will be better, the stock indexes will grow, despite the fact that the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the US remain.
Yesterday, very positive macro statistics on the United States were published. Production orders in June increased by 3.0% compared to the previous month. According to the report, the growth of new orders was the strongest in two years, which led to the fact that the rate of increase in employment was the strongest this year. The composite index of supply managers (PMI) in July rose to 54.6 against 53.9 in June.
Earlier in the week, ISM presented a report stating that "the conditions for doing business have improved, and new orders, production, employment, outstanding orders and exports increased in July compared to June."
The data presented confirm the stable trend of the recovery of the US economy, and this supports the bullish trend of the American stock market. US indices this year reached new highs supported by good company results and signs of recovery of world economic growth.
Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen to another record level of 22070.0, and its positive dynamics persists.
Nevertheless, at the time of today's publication of data from the US labor market, a surge in volatility is expected across the entire financial market, which must be taken into account when making trade decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The DJIA index is developing the upward trend, being in a bullish trend since February 2016.
For the last 4 months of continuous growth, DJIA has grown by more than 6%, and today has updated the annual and absolute maximum, having risen to 22070.0.
Long positions are still relevant. Only in case of breakdown of the short-term support level of 21880.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) can we again return to consideration of short positions with the aim near the levels 20600.0, 21300.0 (July lows).
And only in case of breakdown of the support level of 20500.0 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after the recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year.The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci 0% level is near the mark of 22000.0) We can talk about the breakdown of the bullish trend. Through the level 20500.0 also passes EMA200 on the daily chart. This level, therefore, is the key.
Support levels: 22000.0, 21880.0, 21600.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20500.0
Resistance levels: 22070.0, 22300.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 22080.0. Stop-Loss 21950.0. Take-Profit 22150.0, 22300.0
Sell Stop 21950.0. Stop-Loss 22080.0. Take-Profit 21880.0, 21600.0, 21300.0, 21000.0, 20500.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:53 am
by TifiaFX
XAU/USD: Dollar grows on positive NFP
07/08/2017
Current dynamics

After the strongest monthly increase recorded on Friday, when favorable macro data on the US labor market came out, the dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market from the opening of the trading day on Monday.
The number of jobs outside of US agriculture increased by 209,000 in July (the forecast was + 180,000 jobs), the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.3%, the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (+2,5% in annual terms). Such data was led on Friday by the US Department of Labor showed that the conditions in the US labor market remain a positive factor in the recovery of the US economy.
Favorable data on employment in the US have eased fears about the probability of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year. Thus, according to the CME Group, the probability of an increase in rates by the end of the year is estimated at about 50% versus 43% before the release of the labor market report.
Prices for asylum assets, such as government bonds, yen, franc and gold, sensitive to higher rates in the US, after the release of data on the labor market declined. Yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, rose to 2.269% compared with the level of 2.230% recorded on Thursday. August gold futures fell by 0.7% to 1258.30 dollars.
The spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 1258.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is slightly lower than the closing price on Friday. The prospect of raising rates puts pressure on prices for precious metals and stimulates dollar purchases. Gold does not bring interest income. In periods of the interest rate increase, the cost of its acquisition and storage is growing.
Also, the dollar quotes reacted positively to the comments of the director of the National Council for Economy under the White House Gary Cohn about the prospects for tax reform in a television interview. According to him, the tax plan of the White House provides for stimulating American companies to repatriate foreign incomes, which will support the national currency.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, monthly charts of the pair XAU / USD went to the side of sellers.
XAU / USD broke the short-term support level of 1261.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and continues to develop a downward trend towards the support levels of 1255.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1250.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 11248.00 (Fibonacci level 50% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016). The breakdown of the support level of 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downward trend.
In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance levels 1273.00, 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), the pair XAU / USD will go to the level of 1295.00 (highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels 1185.00 and 1295.00).
So far, the downward trend is prevailing.
Support levels: 1255.00, 1250.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Resistance levels: 1261.00, 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1255.00. Stop-Loss 1260.00. Take-Profit 1250.00, 1248.00, 1242.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00
Buy Stop 1260.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1273.00, 1277.00, 1295.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:10 am
by TifiaFX
XAG/USD: demand for precious metals has increased
09/08/2017

Current dynamics

The escalation of geopolitical tensions, provoked by North Korea's threats against the United States, caused a sharp increase in demand for safe haven assets - yen, franc and precious metals. In recent days, North Korea has threatened to use nuclear weapons against the US in the event of a military provocation. Yesterday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. If the plan is implemented, "the United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons", the DPRK said.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and fury that the world has not seen so far".
At the end of yesterday's trading session and with the opening of today's trading day, prices for precious metals soared. The troy ounce of gold has risen today by 7 dollars to 1267.00 dollars, silver - by 0.2 dollars to 16.60 dollars.
The investors' withdrawal from risks in connection with the increased geopolitical tension provoked also a decline in world stock indices and a rise in prices for government bonds.
As long as the situation around North Korea does not calm down, the demand for safe haven assets will continue. The dollar will also remain under pressure, despite strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, which increases the likelihood of further interest rate increases in the US this year.
Precious metals do not bring investment income. However, in the context of increasing economic or political uncertainty, the demand for precious metals as a safe haven is growing. Under conditions of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the price of precious metals is falling, as the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.
Today, investors will follow the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of data on labor costs and labor productivity in the US (excluding the agricultural sector) for the 2nd quarter. Positive data will support the dollar. Expected to grow by 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively.
Investors also expect the release of inflation data in the US (on Friday 12:30 GMT) to assess the pace of inflation acceleration after its recent slowdown. The growth of inflation indices can strengthen expectations regarding the increase in interest rates of the Fed, and this is a negative factor for the precious metals market. The probability of another increase in interest rates in the US this year is estimated today at about 46%, according to the CME Group.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of April, the pair XAG / USD is declining in the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of the channel passes near the 14.30 mark (July lows), and the upper one - near the level of 16.80. A little higher, near the 17.00 mark, the resistance level passes (EMA200 on the daily chart). While XAG / USD is below these levels, the downward trend prevails, despite the current upward correction associated with the escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea.
In case of breakdown of the support level of 16.45 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts), the descending dynamics will return, and after the breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downlink on the daily chart with targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (the minimum of the global wave of decline in the pair XAG / USD since September 2012).
Support levels: 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 16.43. Stop-Loss 16.68. Take-Profit 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.68. Stop-Loss 16.43. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:33 am
by TifiaFX
NZD / USD: monetary policy has not changed
10/08/2017
Current dynamics

As expected, the RBNZ kept the current interest rate in New Zealand at the same level of 1.75%. The RBNZ stated that against the backdrop of "many uncertainties," monetary policy "will remain soft in the foreseeable future," but "can be adjusted accordingly." For a stable recovery of the New Zealand economy and rising inflation of the value of traded goods, "a lower New Zealand dollar rate is needed."
In response to the publication of the decision on the rate of the pair, the New Zealand dollar / dollar briefly jumped to 0.7370 from 0.7340, but then declined during the Asian session, and at the beginning of the European session it was already trading near the 0.7270 mark.
Commodity currencies, including the New Zealand dollar, continue to decline in the foreign exchange market amid the continuing geopolitical tensions in the Asian region. The second day in a row, North Korea is threatening the United States. On Tuesday, the media reported that the North Korean army is "carefully studying" the operational plan for a missile strike on Guam. "The United States will be the first to experience the power of strategic weapons," the DPRK declared. US President Donald Trump demanded that North Korea "stop further threats" against the US, saying that the answer would be "the fire and the rage that the world has not seen so far." This time, North Korea threatened to "shell out from all sides" the territory of Guam in the coming weeks.
As a result of its 10-day decline, the pair NZD / USD completely leveled its July growth. According to economists, "the current rate is more appropriate to short-term fundamental factors" and "approached its average value over the past year."
As the geopolitical situation in the Asian region stabilizes, the New Zealand dollar will be able to maintain its position in the foreign exchange market due to rising commodity prices, also receiving support from long-term investors who prefer safe long-term investments. Preservation of the current interest rate at 1.75% in the long term will also contribute to this.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair NZD / USD broke through an important short-term support level of 0.7350 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and remains under pressure. Today, the NZD / USD pair has reached an important support level of 0.7285 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) and is developing a downward movement to the level of support
0.7240 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers, signaling a strong negative impulse.
While NZD / USD is trading above the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the upward dynamics is maintained. In the case of breakdown at the level of 0.7150, a further decline to support levels of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and a lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860) is possible. At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017. A break at the level of 0.6860 will mean the end of the upward correction, which began in September 2015, and a return to the downward trend.
The alternative scenario is to return to the zone above the level of 0.7350 and resume growth towards the annual maximum and the resistance level of 0.7550 (50% Fibonacci level). Meanwhile, it is too early to talk about long positions on the NZD / USD pair. Only a breakdown at 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend.
Support levels: 0.7240, 0.7150
Resistance levels: 0.7285, 0.7350, 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7250. Stop-Loss 0.7310. Take-Profit 0.7200, 0.7150
Buy Stop 0.7310. Stop-Loss 0.7250. Take-Profit 0.7418, 0.7455, 0.7500, 0.7550, 0.7600
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:34 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: World oil supply grows
11/08/2017
Overview and dynamics

As reported today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world oil supply in July increased by 520,000 barrels a day, even despite the arrangements in OPEC. Growth in the supply of oil has been observed for 3 consecutive months. The supply of oil in the world increased in July to 98.16 million barrels per day, which is by 500,000 barrels per day more than in the same period last year. OPEC oil production in July increased by 230,000 barrels per day and reached 32.84 million barrels per day, the high of 2017. The increase in OPEC production of the cartel is primarily due to the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from participation in the transaction.
The investors' skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC measures is maintained due to poor compliance with the agreements on the reduction of oil production. All this imposes a negative imprint on the dynamics of oil prices.
Prices fell on Thursday, despite the earlier data from the US Energy Ministry on oil reserves in the US (Wednesday 14:30 GMT). According to the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the United States, US oil inventories fell 6.451 million barrels last week, which was the sixth consecutive week.
Today we are waiting for the publication at 17:00 (GMT) of the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices.
The US successfully used the situation with a rise in prices against OPEC actions last year and increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels per day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset.
At the moment, there are 765 active drilling rigs in the USA. If the number of installations increases again, this will negatively affect oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude oil was unable to develop an upward trend above the resistance level of 52.90 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) on Thursday and the second day is going down.
While the price is below the short-term resistance level of 51.85 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the downside dynamics will increase, and the downside correction target will be the support level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, as well as Fibonacci 61, 8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
If the price breaks through the key support level of 50.70, then the decline will accelerate, risking again moving into a bearish trend. The targets then will be support levels 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
The scenario for growth implies breakdown of the resistance level of 52.90 and an increase to the resistance level of 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs). The signal to growth will be the fixing of the price above the level of 51.85.
Support levels: 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 51.85, 52.90, 54.00, 54.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 51.10. Stop-Loss 52.10. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20, 44.50
Buy Stop 52.10. Stop-Loss 51.10. Take-Profit 52.90, 54.00, 54.75

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:13 am
by TifiaFX
XAU/USD: the dollar regains positions
14/08/2017
Current dynamics

Friday's weak inflation data in the US, as well as an escalation in tensions between the US and North Korea, caused the dollar to fall on Friday and the demand for safe haven assets was growing.
As reported by the US Labor Department, in July, consumer prices rose by 0.1% (the forecast was + 0.2%). The index pointed to a worsening of the outlook for price growth in the US, which weakened expectations of an increase in interest rates by the Fed this year.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that his previously voiced threats to reply North Korea with "fire and fury" apparently sounded "not tough enough." And on Saturday Donald Trump said that the United States is ready to strike North Korea, if it does not stop threatening the United States.
As a result, on Friday, demand for gold continued to remain at high levels.
On Friday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that the current level of interest rates is acceptable. Another Fed spokesman, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, said that the Fed should wait with higher rates until inflation approaches the target of 2%. "We still can not reach the target level of inflation, and the growth of wages remains slow," Kashkari said.
Now investors expect a rate hike in December with a probability of 38% (on Friday the probability was estimated at 47%), according to the CME Group.
Gold, as you know, does not bring interest income. But it is growing in price in periods of low interest rates and political or economic instability in the world.
So far, the demand for it is supported, mainly against the backdrop of domestic political instability in the United States and the tension in relations with the DPRK. As the geopolitical tensions decrease, investors' attention will again shift to economic indicators.
Still, the risk of an increase in the US interest rate in December, despite the low level of inflation, exists. Strong labor market in the US indicates a stable state of the economy in the country.
Tomorrow, investors will focus on the publication of inflation indicators for the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) are published retail sales indices for July, which are a leading indicator, and indices of export-import prices. Forecast: retail sales increased by 0.3% (against -0.2% in June), which should support the dollar quotes.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar is recovering its positions in the foreign exchange market, and gold is getting cheaper.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts of the pair XAU / USD turned to short positions.
Probably further decline to support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1273.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
In the case of breakdown of these levels and the development of a downward correction, it is likely that the support level of 1260.00 (the bottom line of the uplink and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) will decrease to the support level.
The breakdown of support levels 1248.00 (Fibonacci 50.0%), 1244.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will provoke further decline of the pair XAU / USD and its return to the downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the breakdown of the resistance level of 1295.00 (the highs of June and the year and the upper line of the range located between the levels of 1185.00 and 1295.00) and further growth.
So far, against the background of the dollar's recovery, the downward short-term dynamics is dominating.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00, 1229.00, 1220.00, 1205.00, 1185.00
Levels of resistance: 1295.00

Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1285.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1260.00, 1248.00, 1244.00
Buy Stop 1285.00. Stop-Loss 1279.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1295.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:11 am
by TifiaFX
GBP/USD: producer price growth slowed
15/08/2017
Current dynamics

The consumer price index (CPI) of the UK in July compared with July last year increased by 2.6% (the forecast was + 2.7%). Thus, according to the data presented today, in July the annual rate of consumer inflation did not change with respect to June. But the annual growth rate of purchasing prices of producers in July slowed sharply - to 6.5% from 10% in June.
As a result of the sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit in May, consumer price inflation accelerated to a maximum of 2.9% in mid-2013. Against the background of the weakening of the pound, the purchasing power of the British sharply decreased, which sharply limited their spending.
Retail sales are one of the main "fillers" of British GDP. The slowdown in inflation favorably influences the British economy, which is oriented primarily toward the domestic market. Improving the situation in the service sector for consumers, which has recovered due to strong retail sales, contributes to GDP growth in the UK. So, according to official data released last Wednesday, in the second quarter, the British economy grew by 0.3% after rising 0.2% in the 1st quarter.
The pound declined after the publication of today's data on inflation, but the British stock index FTSE rose, indicating the favorable impact of slowing inflation on the growth of the British economy. Yet the main risk for the UK economy remains Brexit.
For today (at 12:30 GMT) it is planned to publish important data from the US - inflation indicators for July (retail sales), as well as import-export price indices.
High level of retail sales will strengthen the US dollar. Forecast: + 0.4% (against -0.2% in June).
The weak values of the indicators will put pressure on the dollar, which is now recovering in the foreign exchange market after it became known that the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un decided not to attack Guam after consulting with the military command. This was also facilitated by China's decision to support the sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair GBP / USD broke through the important short-term support levels of 1.3000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2960 (EMA50 on the daily chart, the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart) and is rapidly declining to the key support level 1.2860 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Break of this level will speak about the completion of the upward correction and will strengthen the risks of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
The alternative scenario is connected with the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.3000 and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next target.
So far, the downward trend is dominating, as evidenced by the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts turned to short positions.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:35 am
by TifiaFX
XAG / USD: demand for precious metals declined
16/08/2017

Current dynamics

After the tension in relations between North Korea and the United States declined and against the background of positive data on retail sales received from the US, the dollar regains its positions in the foreign exchange market, and the demand for safe haven assets, including precious metals, is declining.
A few hours after China supported sanctions against Pyongyang imposed by the United States, North Korea refused to threaten to attack the United States.
As reported yesterday by the US Department of Commerce, July data on retail sales exceeded expectations, an increase of 0.6% against the forecast (0.4%). Data on retail sales supported the further strengthening of the dollar and encouraged the buyers of the dollar, putting on its further growth.
Today, the focus of traders will be the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the July Fed meeting to understand the prospects for monetary policy in the US.
In recent weeks, Fed officials have talked about the weakness of inflation and uncertainty in fiscal policy. Published on Friday, inflation data increased fears that the price dynamics did not meet the expectations of the Fed. The consumer price index (CPI) in July rose by 0.1% compared to June, and by 1.7% compared to July of the previous year (the target level of annual inflation established by the Federal Reserve is 2%).
The protocols, apparently, will also contain information on the continuation of the discussion on inflation, which remains weak and, in the opinion of some leaders of the Fed, may become a hindrance to further tightening of monetary policy in the US.
This year, the Fed will hold three more meetings devoted to monetary policy: September 19 - 20, October 31 - November 1, and December 12 - 13. After the September and December meetings, the Fed will publish its new economic forecasts, while Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will hold a press conference.
According to the CME Group, investors are taking into account the 53% chance of raising the Fed's interest rates in the price this year. Before the release of data on retail sales, they estimated such a probability of 37%.
As is known, in the conditions of increase in the rate the price for precious metals, including silver, falls, as the cost of its acquisition and storage is growing.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD was unable to develop an uptrend above the resistance level of 17.22 (August highs and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). Having broken the key level 17.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), XAG / USD is falling deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart.
At the moment, XAG / USD is trading at the support level of 16.58 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart). A break of this level will signal the continuation of the downward movement.
While XAG / USD is below the level of 17.00, the downside dynamics prevails.
In case of breakdown of the local support level of 16.12 (August lows), the pair XAG / USD will go into the downward channel on the daily chart towards its lower boundary with the targets of 15.60, 14.90, 14.30 (July lows), 13.65 (minimum of the global wave of the pair XAG / USD decline September 2012).
Support levels: 16.58, 16.45, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Levels of resistance: 16.80, 17.00, 17.22

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 16.55. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.45, 16.38, 16.12, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.55. Take-Profit 16.80, 17.00, 17.22
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:56 am
by TifiaFX
GBP/USD: revenue growth lags behind inflation
17/08/2017
Current dynamics


As follows from yesterday's July minutes of the Fed meeting, there is no consensus among US central bank executives about further interest rate hikes. Slowing inflation forced some Fed officials to propose to refrain from further raising rates. "In the current conditions, the Fed can show patience", the protocols say. Earlier, the Fed planned to raise rates three times this year, but the protocols published on Wednesday make it doubtful.
After the publication of the minutes, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The index of the US dollar, WSJ, estimating the value of the dollar against 16 other major world currencies, fell by 0.4%, to 86.33.
Nevertheless, today the dollar is recovering its positions during the European trading session. This applies to the pair GBP / USD, which is declining after the publication of data on retail sales in the UK for July. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS), presented today at the beginning of the European session, retail sales growth in the UK in July was modest (+ 0.3% vs. +0.2 forecast). The estimation of sales growth for June was reduced to 0.3% from 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was also modest (+ 1.3% vs. + 1.4%, according to the forecast).
The British economy, largely dependent on domestic consumption, grew by just 0.3% in the second quarter (+ 0.2% in the first quarter).
According to data published earlier this week, real British salaries in June declined for the fourth consecutive month. Because of the sharp increase in inflation against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the pound after the referendum on Brexit, the real income growth of the British lags behind inflation, which is confirmed by the almost zero increase in personal expenses of the British and the level of retail sales.
Sales in all categories, except for food and household goods, in comparison with the previous month decreased.
In July, inflation was 2.6% against a nearly four-year high of 2.9% in May, well above the Bank of England's target of 2%.
We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decline to 240,000 versus 244,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the dollar. If the data is confirmed or better, the dollar will receive additional support.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of August, the GBP / USD pair is actively declining. On the daily chart, GBP / USD fell back to the key support level of 1.2860 (EMA200). Downward dynamics prevails. Breakdown of this level will strengthen the risk of GBP / USD returning to a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic daily, weekly, monthly charts were deployed to short positions.
An alternative scenario relates to the return of GBP / USD to the zone above the level of 1.2980 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and the resumption of growth. The closest target in this case will be the resistance level 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200). Levels of 1.3300 (the upper limit of the channel on the weekly chart), 1.3460 (July and September highs) will be the next growth target.
Support levels: 1.2860, 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2850. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2815, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2850. Take-Profit 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3400, 1.3460

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com