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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Tifia Daily Market Analytics
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:46 am
by TifiaFX
USD/JPY: Bank of Japan did not change monetary policy
20/07/2017
Current dynamics

As expected, the Bank of Japan has upheld its monetary policy, while once again lowering the forecast for inflation. Now, the Bank of Japan expects that inflation will reach 2% around 2019 fiscal year, that is a year later than previously forecast. Last month, the Bank of Japan did not begin to change its monetary policy, retaining the aggressive incentive program, which represents the purchase of government bonds by about 80 trillion yen per year (720 billion US dollars), as well as maintaining the target yield of 10-year Japanese bonds around 0% and maintaining a short-term rate of -0.1%. This decision was expected by the majority of market participants and economists.
The economy of Japan shows growth, albeit at a modest pace. However, inflation fluctuates near zero levels against the central bank's target level of 2%.
During today's press conference, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda called the target level of 2% "world standard". "This level is necessary to maintain a stable exchange rate", Kuroda said and reiterated that the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to this target level.
The lower inflation forecasts indicate the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will not change its monetary policy, although other central banks are inclined to tighten it, in the foreseeable future. The Japanese yen may decline due to tightening of monetary policy in other economically developed countries, which reduces the attractiveness of the yen for investors. The Japanese yen can still be in demand, but only as a safe haven.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Not having reached the key support level 111.50 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the daily chart), the pair USD / JPY has grown today after the publication of the decision of the Bank of Japan. The pair USD / JPY broke through the important short-term resistance level 112.20 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of breakdown of one more important level of resistance 112.60 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the pair USD / JPY growth may continue to the upper boundary of the range between the levels 114.40 and 108.40. If the pair USD / JPY can gain a foothold above 114.40, then its growth may continue with the targets 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (December and January highs), 121.30 (highs in January 2016) against the background of the difference in monetary policy of the Fed and Bank of Japan.
Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the long-term bullish trend of the pair USD / JPY periods of active downward correction are highly probable, when the demand for yen rises in periods of geopolitical and financial instability.
The reverse scenario involves a breakdown of the support level of 111.50 and a further decline in the pair USD / JPY with the target of 110.10 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the correction for the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90), 108.40 (the lower bound of the range).
Support levels: 111.50, 111.00, 110.10, 109.00, 108.40, 108.00, 106.50
Resistance levels: 112.60, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 112.50. Stop Loss 111.90. Take-Profit 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00, 117.00, 118.60
Sell Stop 111.90. Stop Loss 112.50. Take-Profit 111.50, 111.00, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:02 am
by TifiaFX
EUR/USD: The euro rose after the ECB meeting
21/07/2017
Current dynamics

Today the pair EUR / USD continued its growth, started on Thursday after the ECB meeting and press conference, at which ECB President Mario Draghi spoke. He was very careful in his statements and tried not to cause unnecessary emotions for traders who traded the euro.
"We studied the economic situation in the Eurozone and noticed the acceleration of economic growth with still slow inflation", Draghi said. He also noted that the future of the QE program during the two-day ECB meeting was not discussed, and "the discussion of this topic should begin in the fall".
Investors took the words of Draghi as a signal to buy the euro. The pair EUR / USD reached almost 2-year high at 1.1679 in the first half of the European session.
The growth of the pair was also promoted by Bloomberg's announcement that transactions in the companies belonging to the US president will be checked as part of the Trump investigation. This publication has increased the uncertainty surrounding the presidential administration and its plans to accelerate economic growth in the United States.
Meanwhile, investors continue to evaluate ECB President Mario Draghi's comments on Thursday and expect ECB plans to wind down the stimulus program to be released in September.
Meanwhile, according to the results of the poll published on Friday, in the next two years, inflation in the Eurozone will not reach the target level set by the ECB slightly below 2.0%.
Quarterly survey conducted by the ECB among economists showed that this year inflation will be 1.5%, in the next - 1.4%, and in 2019 - 1.6%. According to the latest data, for the year prices rose by only 1.3%. Forecasts for each year were lowered by 0.1 percentage points compared to the results of the previous poll, which was held in April.
Yesterday, Mario Draghi again stressed that the ECB leadership will be extremely cautious approach to the issue of curtailing its stimulus measures, focusing on the growth rate of inflation in the Eurozone.
And the more inflation will be below the target level, the further the ECB will postpone the decision on curtailing the stimulus program and raising the interest rate in the Eurozone. And this is a negative factor for the euro.
Today, at the end of the trading week, some investors will want to record profits in short positions on the US dollar, which may provoke some strengthening. It is likely that this may occur closer to the end of the US trading session.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Yesterday, the pair EUR / USD broke through the key resistance level near the 1.1610 mark (EMA200 on the weekly chart), continuing to trade in the uplink on the daily chart.
The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair remains. In case of consolidation above resistance level 1.1610, the pair EUR / USD growth may continue. In this case, the target will be the resistance level 1.1785 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of the global fall from 1.3900).
The reverse scenario implies a decrease to the zone below the level of 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), which will increase the risks of return to the downtrend.
In the case of a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.1500 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 1-hour chart) and the acceleration of the downward dynamics, this scenario may develop.
Support levels: 1.1610, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1000
Resistance levels: 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1785

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1610. Stop-Loss 1.1685. Take-Profit 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1685. Stop-Loss 1.1610. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1785, 1.1800

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:18 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: the plan to reduce the excess supply is not working.
24/07/2017
Current dynamics


On Monday in St. Petersburg is a meeting of some members of OPEC and countries outside the cartel. Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak will chair this meeting. The risk of failure of a deal to reduce oil production is in full swing, although, according to the Saudi Energy Minister, the degree of observance of quotas for oil production in the history of OPEC is a record, and the total degree of compliance with oil production quotas for 6 months was 98%. It was assumed that the agreement would reduce world oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels a day and lead to a reduction in excess supply in the market. In recent days, there has been some recovery in prices against the weakening dollar. However, oil prices remain steadily low due to the continued oversupply.
It seems that the oil cartel still does not know how to deal with the US extraction, which remains outside the control of OPEC. Producers of oil shale in the US took advantage of the situation and, lowering the cost, increased production.
Quotations of Brent crude oil fell 2.5% to $ 48.06 per barrel on Friday, due to doubts about OPEC's ability to restore balance on the market.
According to the report of the oilfield service company Baker Hughes, presented on Friday, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy and significantly affects the quotes of oil prices, the number of active drilling platforms in the US is 764 units. The US increased production by 750,000 barrels a day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the highest since summer 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. According to OPEC representatives, one should not expect that some important actions will be taken Monday, although Nigeria, which, being a member of OPEC, remained outside the framework of the agreement, agreed to limit oil production to the level of 1.8 million barrels a day. Negotiations on limiting production in Libya and Nigeria are still underway.
It is likely that without additional measures, OPEC will not be able to reverse the situation with an excessive supply of oil. And against this background, oil prices will be subject to further decline. As long as the dollar stabilizes in the foreign exchange market, the pressure on oil prices will increase.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude continues, meanwhile, to move in the uplink on the daily chart near the important support level of 48.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to long positions. If the price can consolidate above the short-term resistance level 49.10 (EMA50 on the daily chart), its growth may continue to the resistance level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 Year to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00). Nevertheless, while the price is below the level of 50.70, the negative dynamics prevails. In case of breakdown of the 48.00 support level and renewal of the decline, the targets will be support levels of 47.70, 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), 44.50 (year lows). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
Only in the case of fixing the price above the level of 50.70 can we again consider medium-term long positions.
Support levels: 48.50, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Levels of resistance: 49.10, 49.85, 50.70, 51.00

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 48.40. Stop-Loss 49.20. Take-Profit 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Buy Stop 49.20. Stop-Loss 48.40. Take-Profit 49.60, 50.00, 50.70, 51.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:17 am
by TifiaFX
EUR/USD: The dollar remains weak
25/07/2017
Current dynamics

"Core inflation is still slow and has not yet shown convincing signs of acceleration. Price pressure and wage growth are still restrained, "European Central Bank board member Yves Mersch said today in Singapore.
The rate of price growth in the Eurozone last month slowed to 1.3% per annum, being significantly below the target level of the ECB, which is just under 2%. Because of low inflation, the Eurozone economy still needs "very significant" incentive measures, according to Yves Mersch.
Today, the pair EUR / USD resumed its growth after the release of positive macroeconomic indicators at the beginning of the European session. So, the PMI index in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone in July was 56.8, the PMI index for the services sector - 55.4, the composite PMI - 55.8.
Nevertheless, the growth of the EUR / USD pair was insignificant, as the dollar today stabilized in the foreign exchange market on the eve of the publication of tomorrow results of the Fed meeting. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, slightly increased and amounted to 86.58.
At 18:00 (GMT) on Wednesday will publish the decision of the Fed on the interest rate in the US. It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the same level of 1.25%.
According to the latest data of the CME Group, the probability of an increase in the rate at the December meeting of the Federal Reserve is 48%.
From the US, we continue to receive weak macro data, against which the Fed will be very carefully approaching the issue of further tightening of monetary policy. It is likely that the dollar will remain under pressure until the domestic political situation in the United States normalizes and macroeconomic indicators start to arrive with strong indicators.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. CB Consumer Confidence is published at 14:00 (GMT). This indicator reflects the confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country. A high level indicates an increase in the economy, while a low indicates stagnation. The previous value of the indicator is 118.9. The growth of the indicator will strengthen USD, and a decrease in value will weaken the dollar. It is expected that this indicator will come out with a value of 116.5, which will negatively affect the dollar when the forecast is confirmed.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
The pair EUR / USD continues to trade in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 1.1720. The EUR / USD is trying to gain a foothold above the key support level 1.1610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The positive dynamics of the EUR / USD pair remains. The growth of the EUR / USD pair may continue. In this case, the immediate target will be the resistance level 1.1785 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline from 1.3900).
An alternative scenario for the decline will be related to the breakdown of the support level 1.1610. In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1560 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), the pair EUR / USD may fall to support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), and in case of its breakdown, risks of return to the downtrend will grow.
However, in any case, while the EUR / USD pair is above the level of 1.1030 (EMA200 on the daily chart), a bullish trend remains.
Support levels: 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1030
Levels of resistance: 1.1650, 1.1700, 1.1720, 1.1785

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1590. Stop-Loss 1.1685. Take-Profit 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1685. Stop-Loss 1.1590. Take-Profit 1.1700, 1.1720, 1.1785, 1.1800

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 11:19 am
by TifiaFX
DJIA: US indices rose
26/07/2017

Current dynamics

The main US stock indices remain upward, gaining support from positive companies and soft rhetoric of the Fed representatives regarding plans for further tightening of monetary policy in the US.
By the end of trading on Tuesday, the DJIA index increased by 0.5%, to 21614 points, Nasdaq Composite grew by about 0.1%, S & P500 gained 0.3%. Earlier, the indices were supported by the growth of shares of American banks, which in the last month gained about 6% in the hope that a gradual increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in their loan proceeds.
The growth of the indices was also helped yesterday by the rising oil prices after Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, said it would cut supplies in August.
The cautious rhetoric of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and a restrained assessment of the likelihood of another rate hike this year by a number of representatives of the Fed have contributed to weakening investors' expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US. Given the Fed's concerns about low inflation, rates are also unlikely to be raised at the two next Fed meetings in September and October. Preserving the soft monetary policy of the Fed is beneficially reflected in the US stock market. On the other hand, the negative political situation in the US and the problems in implementing the electoral program to stimulate the US economy by the administration of the US president put pressure on the stock indices.
Today, investors will be focused on the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the Fed's decision on the interest rate. According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting is only 3%, in December - 54%. Investors will carefully study the statement of the Fed and look for signals about further plans to raise interest rates and reduce the balance of the Fed.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
In July, the DJIA index reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21680.0. At the same time, the DJIA index keeps positive dynamics and continues to grow in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
The positive dynamics of the DJIA is maintained as long as the index trades above the key support level 20400.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. Of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21536.0). The long positions in the DJIA index trade are still relevant.
Only in case of breakdown of the support level 21431.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we again return to consideration of short positions on the DJIA index with the aim near the levels 20400.0, 20300.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6%). And only in case of breakdown of the support level of 19380.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
Support levels: 21510.0, 21431.0, 21360.0, 21100.0, 20600.0, 20400.0, 20300.0
Resistance levels: 21680.0, 22000.0

Trading scenarios

Buy Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21500.0. Take-Profit 21700.0, 21800.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 21500.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 21360.0, 21100.0, 21000.0, 20600.0

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 11:06 am
by TifiaFX
USD / CHF: the franc is down throughout the market
27/07/2017

Current dynamics

As you know, the Fed did not change its monetary policy at its July meeting and kept the key rate in the range of 1% -1.25%. The decision to keep the current monetary policy unchanged was unanimously adopted and was published yesterday at 18:00 (GMT).
The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the dollar against the basket of 16 currencies, declined immediately after the publication of the Fed decision by 0.3%, to 86.42. The decision of the Fed was expected, however, the US dollar showed a large-scale decline in the foreign exchange market.
With the opening of today's trading day, the dollar continued to decline in the foreign exchange market.
However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that together with the dollar since the beginning of the European session, the Swiss franc also began to decline.
It was a safe haven, although it significantly lost this quality due to the NBS's actions in the foreign exchange market, the franc, along with gold and the yen, was actively bought recently due to the continuing political uncertainty in the US.
The Swiss National Bank has set a negative deposit rate, hoping that this will reduce the attractiveness of Swiss assets for international investors. Frack is usually strengthened during times of economic and political instability, thanks to Switzerland's strong economy, low levels of its debt and the stability of its political system. For the export-oriented Swiss economy, the exchange rate is especially important. A large share of its exports falls on the Eurozone, China, the United States and the rising franc leads to a rise in the price of Swiss goods.
After this week's meeting of the Fed, the dollar significantly weakened in the foreign exchange market, while purchases of assets-shelters, including francs, increased significantly.
The Swiss National Bank has traditionally stated that the Swiss franc is overbought, consistently advocating a soft monetary policy in the country.
As a result of the efforts of the Swiss National Bank aimed at curbing the growth of its currency, its foreign exchange reserves grew to about 700 billion francs (735 billion US dollars). However, investor purchases continue.
At the beginning of today's European session, there is a sharp decline in the franc, and to all major currencies, including against the yen, the dollar.
It is possible that the NBS conducts another currency intervention, which it never announces either before or after.
From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT) a block of important macro data will be published: the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, orders for durable goods excluding transport in the US in June. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to increase to 240,000 versus 233,000 for the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After reaching new annual lows near the 0.9445 mark at the end of last week, the pair USD / CHF rose during the last 4 trading sessions. Today, the pair USD / CHF is also actively growing since the beginning of the European trading session.
At the beginning of the European session, the pair USD / CHF is trying to gain a foothold above the short-term resistance level 0.9540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to long positions.
However, in order to break the bearish trend, the USD / CHF pair needs, first of all, to gain a foothold above the levels of 0.9620 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.9650 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave from December 2016 and from the level 1.0300).
If the price falls below the 0.9540 level, the USD / CHF decline may resume within the descending channel on the daily chart. The lower boundary of this channel passes near the support level 0.9400. This level will become the goal in case of resumption of the pair USD / CHF decline.
The strong negative dynamics prevails. The main dynamics of the pair USD / CHF will still be connected with the dynamics of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. In the meantime, the dollar is weak.
Support levels: 0.9540, 0.9500, 0.9440, 0.9400
Resistance levels: 0.9620, 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9840, 0.9875

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9610. Stop-Loss 0.9560. Take-Profit 0.9650, 0.9670, 0.9690, 0.9730, 0.9840, 0.9875
Sell Stop 0.9560. Stop-Loss 0.9610. Take-Profit 0.9540, 0.9500, 0.9440, 0.9400
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:32 am
by TifiaFX
S&P500: Shares of Technology Sector Decreased
28/07/2017

Current dynamics

After the active growth the day before against the backdrop of a number of positive reports of companies about profits today
The main US stock indexes are declining. Yesterday, the S & P500 and Nasdaq 100, which became the leaders in growth this year, held their worst day in three weeks.
The sale of shares in technology companies pulled down not only the US, but also European and Asian stock indices. The European StoxxEurope600 Index dropped 0.9% at the beginning of trading. Shares of the US Company Amazon.com Inc., for example, yesterday fell significantly as the company reported a 77% drop in quarterly profits. Korean Kospi lost 1.7% during the Asian session, while the Australian S&P/ASX200 fell 1.4%.
Also, the dynamics of US indices were affected by the next setbacks of the US presidential administration. Attempts by the US Republican Party to repeal the Law on Affordable Medical Services have failed: a package of proposals to refuse part of the provisions of this law from 2010 was not supported in the Senate.
The US Department of Commerce today (12:30 GMT) will publish a preliminary estimate of GDP for the 2-nd quarter. It is expected that GDP in the US grew by 2.6% in the second quarter. If the data coincides with the forecast, they will confirm the economic recovery after the deterioration of the situation in the first three months of this year. This will support the stock indices. And vice versa. If the GDP data and the inflation indicators published simultaneously for the 2nd quarter are weaker than the forecast values, the stock indices will receive another portion of the negative and are likely to continue their decline.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index declined, continuing to develop short-term downward dynamics.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour charts turned to short positions, indicating a downward correction after many days of growth.
The price broke through the short-term support level 2467.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).
If the negative dynamics will increase, then an additional reduction of the index to the support levels 2452.0 (EMA144), 2445.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart) is possible. Deeper decline in the index is - to the support levels of 2405.0 (June and July lows), 2390.0, 2355.0, near which the bottom line of the rising channel passes on the weekly chart.
In general, the medium-term positive dynamics of the index remains. The index is growing, starting from February 2016 and trading in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts.
While the price is above 2338.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2325.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016), the positive dynamics of the index remains. In the case of the breakdown of the resistance level of 2481.0 (the highs of July and the year), the growth of the index will resume.
Support levels: 2452.0, 2445.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2338.0, 2325.0
Resistance levels: 2467.0, 2481.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2461.0. Stop-Loss 2474.0. Objectives 2452.0, 2445.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2338.0, 2325.0
Buy Stop 2474.0. Stop-Loss 2461.0. Objectives 2481.0, 2490.0, 2500.00

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:29 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: the price of oil is growing for the sixth day in a row
31/07/2017
Current dynamics

The report of the oil service company Baker Hughes, released on Friday, according to which the number of active drilling platforms in the US amounted to 766 units (against 764 last week), did not prevent the growth of oil prices. Brent oil was traded at the end of the trading day on Friday at a price of $ 52.21 per barrel, $ 0.7 higher than the opening price of Friday. In total, over the past week, the price for Brent crude rose $ 4 from $ 48.00 per barrel. A sharp decline in oil and oil products in the US last week (7.2 million barrels), as well as a large dollar weakening, contributes to the growth of oil prices.
The meeting of some OPEC members and countries outside the cartel last week in St. Petersburg also left an imprint on the dynamics of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih said at the meeting that Saudi Arabia, the world leader in oil exports, intends to reduce oil exports in August to 6.6 million barrels per day from 7.46 million barrels a day recorded in 2016. Nigeria, a member of the cartel, but exempt from participation in the deal, also expressed its intention to limit production at 1.8 million barrels per day.
If Saudi Arabia really further reduces oil exports, and other OPEC member countries follow its example, oil prices can restore the upward trend. This statement is also valid against the background of the weakness of the dollar. As long as the dollar stabilizes in the foreign exchange market, commodity prices, including oil, may again be under pressure.
Some skepticism about the effectiveness of OPEC's actions to reduce oil production is still valid, because within OPEC there may be a split among the countries participating in the agreement.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day and at the beginning of today's European session, the price for Brent crude is close to $ 52.30 per barrel, trading in a narrow range.
In the foreign exchange market there is a correction of the dollar after its strong decline last week. There is no important news on the oil market today, and an upward correction in the dollar may affect oil prices.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts recommend long positions. However, on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts, the indicators turned to short positions, signaling an overdue downward correction after a strong six-day price increase.
The price broke through an important level of 50.70 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, EMA50 on the weekly chart, and the Fibonacci level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute lows of 2016 near the 27.00 mark), above which a positive dynamics. Preferred long positions with a target at 54.75 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and May highs).
In the case of the breakdown of the support level of 50.70 and the resumption of the decline, the targets will be support levels of 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant goal is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 52.00, 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00, 47.70, 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Levels of resistance: 53.00, 54.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 51.90. Stop-Loss 52.60. Take-Profit 51.00, 50.70, 50.00, 49.70, 48.75, 48.00
Buy Stop 52.60. Stop-Loss 51.90. Take-Profit 53.00, 54.00, 54.75
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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue Aug 01, 2017 11:03 am
by TifiaFX
NZD/USD: unemployment in New Zealand remains relatively low
01/08/2017
Current dynamics

Today at 21:45 (GMT) will be published data from the labor market of New Zealand. It is expected that unemployment in New Zealand declined in the second quarter by 0.1% to 4.8%.
At levels below 5% unemployment in the country was in the period from 2003 to 2008. Nevertheless, unemployment of 4.9% is a significant improvement compared to the peak of 6.7% achieved after the financial crisis. The decrease in the unemployment rate and the increase in the labor force share in the total population (70.7% in the second quarter versus 70.6% in the first quarter) indicate a decrease in available resources in the labor market, which may finally lead to an increase in the level of salaries in the country, Stimulating domestic demand and GDP growth. If the data is confirmed, this will have a positive effect on the New Zealand currency.
Also worth paying attention to the publication at 14:00 (GMT) of the price index for dairy products. The milk auction that was held two weeks ago indicated another growth in world prices for dairy products. The price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of + 0.2%. The main export item of the country is dry milk. The next increase in prices will support the New Zealand currency. The New Zealand dollar in the NZD / USD pair also receives support from the declining US currency and positive data coming from China. China is the largest trade and economic partner of New Zealand and a buyer of its primary commodities, including dairy products. Strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive effect on the quotations of the New Zealand currency.
Today, investors will also monitor the publication during the period 12:30 - 14:00 (GMT) of the important US inflation figures for June (personal income and personal consumption expenditure), as well as the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector of the US economy, which is an important An indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. The result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, below 50 - as negative for the US dollar. Forecast: 56.5 in July (against 57.8 in June). If the indices come out with better indicators than the forecast, the US dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
As a result of the three-month rally, the NZD / USD pair reached a new annual maximum and a resistance level of 0.7550 last week (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016). The pair NZD / USD very technically rebounded in mid-May from the support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%). So what next?
The NZD / USD pair is in a global downtrend since July 2014. A break of 0.7550 would mean the end of the global bearish trend. Nevertheless, the current growth of the NZD / USD pair is largely due to the general weakening of the US dollar.
Back in June, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, RBNZ Governor Graham Wheeler noted that "monetary policy will remain soft for a significant period". Now investors assess the prospects for the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBNZ. If the Fed still confirms the intention to raise the rate in December, and the US will begin to receive positive macroeconomic data and the internal political crisis subsides, the US dollar will quickly regain its lost positions.
Despite the fact that the indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly and monthly charts recommend long positions, on the daily, 4-hour charts, the indicators moved to the side of sellers, signaling an overdue downward correction.
While the NZD / USD pair is above the key support levels of 0.7275 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 0.7240 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%), its positive dynamics persists. In case of a breakdown at the level of 0.7240, the NZD / USD pair will accelerate its decline to the support level of 0.7150 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The more distant target of the decline is the support level of 0.6860 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% and the lower limit of the range located between the levels of 0.7550 and 0.6860). At the level of 0.6860 are also the minimums of December 2016 and May 2017.
Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7240, 0.7150, 0.7100
Resistance levels: 0.7550

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7450. Stop-Loss 0.7520. Take-Profit 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7240, 0.7150, 0.7100
Buy Stop 0.7520. Stop-Loss 0.7450. Take-Profit 0.7550, 0.7600

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:57 am
by TifiaFX
EUR/USD: Inflationary pressure in the Eurozone remains weak
02/08/2017
Current dynamics

According to the data published yesterday, the Eurozone's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.6% (+ 2.1% in annual terms against + 1.9% in the previous quarter). Quarterly growth rates have become the highest since March 2015. This GDP growth indicates that the Eurozone has overcome the consequences of the financial crises of the last decade. The euro reacted rather weakly to the publication of data, and during the yesterday's trading day, the EUR / USD fell.
Today, the dollar continues to recover in the foreign exchange market. However, against the euro, the dollar declined during today's Asian session. According to official data published today, the producer price index (PPI) of the Eurozone in June compared with May fell by 0.1%. The decline in producer prices in the Eurozone was noted following the results of three of the last four months. Compared to June last year, the index rose by 2.5%, but this was the weakest growth in 2017.
In response to the publication, the pair EUR / USD declined, but remains positive. Suddenly, the strong recovery of the Eurozone economy in the first half of the year strengthened expectations of the curtailment of the QE program. In July, ECB President Mario Draghi called the restoration of the region's economy "strong" and promised that in the autumn the central bank's leaders would decide the fate of the bond purchase program, which ends in December. It is expected that the program will be extended for 2018, but its volumes will be reduced.
At the same time, Draghi once again reminded that the level of inflation will be the basis for making a decision to reduce the stimulus program for the economy. It is necessary to be "consistent and patient", so that inflation grows to a target level of just below 2%, according to Draghi. Strengthening the same inflationary pressure in the coming months seems unlikely.
Today we are waiting for the publication (12:15 GMT) of the employment report from ADP, which reflects the change in the number of employees in the US in July. Reducing the result weakens the US dollar. The growth is expected to reach 185 000 (against 158 000 in June), which should support the dollar.
Also today (16:00 and 19:30 GMT) are key representatives of the Fed, members of the FOMC Loretta Meister and John Williams. Probably, they will again pay attention to the low level of inflation and will express their opinion that the Fed should be delayed with another increase in the interest rate in the US.
Nevertheless, the Fed can still raise the rate again in December, despite the low level of inflation. As long as a strong labor market supports moderate wage growth, prospects for further tightening of monetary policy remain. In this regard, data on US employment on Friday may be very important.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
Today the pair EUR / USD has reached a new annual maximum near the level of 1.1865. The pair EUR / USD maintains positive momentum above support levels 1.1785 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the corrective growth from the lows reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from 1.3900 level), 1.1610 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
In case of further growth and breakdown of resistance level 1.1865, the pair EUR / USD may go to the long-term target 1.2180 (50% Fibonacci level). In fact, this will mean the cancellation of the global downward trend, which began in May 2014.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts still recommend long positions.
In the alternative scenario and in case of breakdown of the support level 1.1610, the decline may accelerate inside the uplink on the daily chart, up to the level of 1.1490 (the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart and EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 1.1285 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%), risks of return to the downtrend will grow significantly.
Support levels: 1.1785, 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1490, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120, 1.1050
Resistance levels: 1.1865, 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2180

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1790. Stop-Loss 1.1870. Take-Profit 1.1715, 1.1685, 1.1650, 1.1610, 1.1560, 1.1500, 1.14400, 1.1370, 1.1285, 1.1240, 1.1120
Buy Stop 1.1870. Stop-Loss 1.1790. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2180

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*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia company website tifia.com