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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed May 24, 2017 10:30 am
by TifiaFX
S&P500: US indices recovered after falling
24/05/2017

Current dynamics

The US stock markets recovered completely after a sharp fall in the middle of last week, which arose amid growing political tensions in the US, which could become an obstacle to the implementation of President Donald Trump's program. However, strong corporate reports and positive fundamental macroeconomic indicators of the US helped keep the stock indices from a deeper fall. An additional positive factor for the US stock markets was yesterday the decline in political confrontation in the US after US President Donald Trump presented the draft budget for 4.1 trillion dollars. According to the budget, which provides for major changes in the social security system, the amount of US government spending in the next 10 years will be reduced by 4.5 trillion dollars. Tax cuts will also help increase economic growth. All together will help to cover the budget deficit, as it is supposed, for 10 years.
Yesterday's hearings in the US Congress, which did not reveal the links of President Donald Trump's campaign headquarters with Russia, also contributed to a reduction in domestic political tension in the United States.
The growth of shares of financial companies and oil and gas companies contributed to the increase in US stock indices for the fourth consecutive session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 20937.00 points yesterday, the S & P500 rose 0.2% to 2398.00 points, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.1% to 6138.00 points.
Today investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed (18:00 GMT), which will look for hints on the timing of the next rate hikes and on plans to reduce the balance of 4.5 trillion dollars.
As the head of the Fed-Philadelphia Patrick Harker said yesterday, "raising rates in June is quite possible". He considers it appropriate to raise interest rates this year two more times.
In itself, an increase in the interest rate will not be able to break the bullish trend of the US stock market, despite the fact that the dollar will receive strong support. As the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, stated more than once, "a rate hike speaks about the strength of the American economy".
From the US continue to receive positive macroeconomic data. Despite some deviation from the forecasted values in the smaller direction, in general, the indicators of inflation and the labor market of the USA point to the growth of the economy in the country. As long as the economy is growing, investors will prefer stocks and other asset-seekers shares and other high-risk risky instruments.
In general, the positive background for the main US stock indices remains.

Support and resistance levels
As a result of the four-day growth, the S & P500 index fully recovered losses suffered earlier amid renewed hype around the US president. With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index is trading in a narrow range, pending the publication of the minutes from the May meeting of the Fed. The positive dynamics of the S & P500 index is preserved. Since February 2016, the S & P500 index has been growing steadily and is in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
At the moment, the S & P500 again tests the resistance level of 2400.0, reached in early March, for breakdown.
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily chart again turned to long positions. In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be level 2415.0 (the upper limit of the uplink on the daily chart).
The reverse scenario will be associated with breakdown of the short-term support level 2386.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decrease with the nearest targets near the levels 2355.0 (bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 2326.0 (April lows). Only the breakdown of support levels of 2275.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2265.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Support levels: 2386.0, 2375.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2305.0, 2275.0, 2265.0
Resistance levels: 2400.0, 2415.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2385.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2375.0, 2355.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0
Buy Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2385.0. Objectives 2415.0, 2450.0, 2500.00


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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 10:30 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: in the focus of OPEC
25/05/2017

Current dynamics

As the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia, OPEC and countries outside the cartel stated in Vienna today, they will probably leave the amount of reduction unchanged under the 9-month extension of the deal. According to the minister, if necessary, OPEC may increase the volume of production reduction, but so far it is not necessary. After the Saudi oil minister's speech, oil prices fell sharply.
Meanwhile, the increase in oil production in the US and other major oil-producing countries, largely offset the efforts of OPE to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this, apart other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.
In the US there is an active increase in oil production. So, according to the data provided by American oil service company Baker Hughes on Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States again rose to 720 units in the previous week.
The number of drilling in the US has been steadily increasing since the summer of last year. American investment companies continue to invest in shale companies. At the same time, American drilling companies have developed a number of financial protection tools that insure against losses in the event of a fall in prices. Innovations in the oil industry of the US economy make it possible to achieve all the best results in oil production. The increase in efficiency makes it possible to reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014. There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of supply of oil in the US will increasingly increase, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC.
If, at the OPEC meeting, it is announced that it is possible to expand the volume of cuts and further extend after the expiration of the next 9-month period, the price of oil will be a powerful stimulus for growth.
In general, the extension of the deal to reduce production in the same volumes was expected by market participants, and it is mostly already taken into account in prices. It is possible that after a small increase in oil prices will return to a downward trend.

Support and resistance levels
The price of Brent crude oil could not gain a foothold above the level of resistance at 54.30 (the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and in the course of today's European session is declining.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers. On the daily chart, indicators also unfold to short positions.
After the speech of Saudi Arabia's oil minister, the price dropped sharply, reaching a short-term support level of 53.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). If the price roll is repeated downward, and support levels of 53.00, 52.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart) will be broken, it is likely that the price will decline further to support level 51.90 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In the event of a breakthrough in the support level of 50.70 (the Fibonacci level of 61.8% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) the price will go deeper into the descending channel on the daily chart and to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In case of consolidation below level 46.20 (the Fibonacci level of 50% and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level at 54.30 and further growth in the uplink channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.

Support levels: 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20
Resistance levels: 54.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.50

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 53.80. Stop-Loss 54.30. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70
Buy Stop 54.30. Stop-Loss 53.80. Take-Profit 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri May 26, 2017 11:05 am
by TifiaFX
GBP/USD: pound is under pressure
26/05/2017

Current dynamics

Several fundamental factors that occurred this week contributed to the pound's weakening in the foreign exchange market. According to polls conducted on the eve of June 8, when early parliamentary elections will be held in Great Britain, the support of the ruling Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Teresa May, declined.
In the middle of last month Teresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections. The purpose of these elections is to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in the parliament on the eve of the June elections, in order to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If the Conservative Party has more seats in the parliament, this will neutralize the influence of the supporters of the tough scenario Brexit.
However, among investors, there is growing doubt about the development of this scenario.
Another negative factor for the pound was the terrorist attacks in Britain, where explosions during the concert were blown up this week at the stadium in Manchester. Theresa May raised the level of the terrorist threat to a critical one.
From the side of the macro data, a portion of the negative also arrived. According to the data published yesterday, UK GDP growth for the first quarter was revised downward (+ 0.2% instead of 0.3%, + 2.0% instead of + 2.1% in annual terms, as reported in the first GDP estimate).
Thus, the pound was among the leaders of the fall this week. The GBP / USD pair seems to be closing this week with a decline of almost 1.0% or about 130 points.
From the news for today, we are waiting for data on the United States. At 12:30 (GMT) important macroeconomic indicators will be published: the adjusted value of the GDP index for the first quarter, orders for durable goods for April. If the value of GDP (the second estimate) is revised upward, the dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market, including in the GBP / USD pair. This will be another argument in favor of raising the interest rate in the US at a meeting of the Fed on June 13-14.
Conversely, if the indicators come out weaker than expected, this will lead to a decrease in the dollar. Today is Friday, the end of the last full trading week of the month. At the end of the US trading session, it is possible to fix short positions on the dollar, which can cause the dollar to rise and decline against it other major currencies, including the pound.

Support and resistance levels
The pair GBP / USD broke through the short-term support level of 1.2950 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and falls to support level 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). A little lower, at 1.2800 there is another strong support level of 1.2800 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In the case of an increase in negative dynamics and breakdown of support levels of 1.2700 (bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart), 1.2680 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the upward trend of the pair, which began in January 2017, could grow into a downtrend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour and daily charts went to the side of sellers.
On the weekly chart, the indicators also unfold to short positions.
You can return to consideration of long positions for the GBP / USD pair after its return to the zone above the level of 1.2950. In case of breakdown of the local maximum near the 1.3050 mark, the GBP / USD pair growth will resume within the upward channel on the daily chart. The closest target will then be the level of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the decline in the GBP / USD pair in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Support levels: 1.2790, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2955. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340
Buy Stop 1.2955. Stop-Loss 1.2890. Take-Profit 1.2990, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 10:07 am
by TifiaFX
GBP/NZD: at a strong support level
29/05/2017

Current dynamics

Last week, the US dollar strengthened strongly against the pound and about the same weakened against the New Zealand dollar (+ 1.8% and -1.9%, respectively).
The reason for this behavior of the dollar against the pound was associated with a massive decline in the pound in the foreign exchange market after the weak macro data on the UK came out and it became known that the gap between the Labor Party and the Conservative parties had significantly reduced before the elections to the country's parliament.
New Zealand's same currency strengthened after last week the New Zealand government has submitted a budget for 2017-2018. According to this document, a budget surplus is expected, strong GDP growth and tax cuts. The budget indicates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may soon begin to consider raising the interest rate in the country, which is currently one of the highest among the advanced economies (1.75%). The New Zealand dollar became the leader of growth last week.
Proceeding from the above, the fall of the pound against the New Zealand dollar is especially strong.
Today in the UK is a bank holiday. Important economic news in the calendar is also not contained.
Arguments for the growth of the NZD / USD pair:
• The GBP / NZD pair has reached an important support level of 1.8190 (200-period moving average on the daily chart). Even if there is a breakdown of this level and further reduction of the NZD / USD pair, before the further decline, a rebound from the level of support and corrective growth is possible.
• The GBP/NZD has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year.
• After a strong multidirectional movement last week against the US dollar, some correction is expected this week in NZD / USD, GBP / USD pairs.

Tomorrow (20:00 GMT) RBNZ will publish a semi-annual report on financial stability. If the report contains information about the difficulties and problems of the effectiveness of the financial system of New Zealand, the New Zealand currency after strong growth last week could significantly adjust, including in the pair GBP / NZD.

Support and resistance levels
The pair GBP / NZD broke through the short-term support level 1.8460 (EMA200 on 1-hour and 4-hour charts) and fell to the key support level 1.8190 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Near the level of 1.8460 also passes the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart.
Despite the fact that OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily and weekly charts recommend sales, on short-term periods (1-hour and 4-hour) the indicators turned to long positions, signaling an upward correction. If the NZD / USD pair returns to a zone above 1.8460, its further growth may resume. The closest target will be the recent May highs near the level of 1.8490. More distant targets will be the levels of 1.9300, near which there is an upper bound of the rising channel on the daily chart, 1.9750 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).
The key date in the further dynamics of the GBP / NZD pair will be June 8, when extraordinary elections to the British Parliament will be held. If the Conservatives win at the head of Prime Minister Theresa May, the pound may sharply strengthen in the currency market, including in the GBP / NZD pair.
The reverse scenario will be connected with the breakdown of the support level 1.8050 (EMA144 on the daily chart) and further decrease towards annual lows near the level of 1.6850.
Support levels: 1.8050, 1.7800, 1.7500, 1.7200, 1.6850
Resistance levels: 1.8460, 1.8940, 1.9300, 1.9750

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.8130. Stop-Loss 1.8210. Take-Profit 1.8050, 1.7800, 1.7500, 1.7200, 1.6850
Buy Stop 1.8210. Stop-Loss 1.8130. Take-Profit 1.8460, 1.8940, 1.9300, 1.9750

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue May 30, 2017 10:30 am
by TifiaFX
AUD/USD: attention to retail sales data
30/05/2017

Current dynamics

The Australian dollar has recently remained one of the weakest against the US dollar. Despite the fact that earlier in the month the RBA retained the interest rate in Australia at 1.5%, among market participants the opinion is growing that the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to a record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak market Labor. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.
From the protocol published at the beginning of the month since the last meeting of the RBA, it follows that the bank as a whole is still optimistic about the situation in the Australian economy. However, according to the bank, "an increase in the interest rate will complicate the correction of the economy."
On Thursday, important macro data for Australia will be published, including retail sales for April and companies' investments for the first quarter. A slight, almost zero growth in the level of retail sales is expected in April (+ 0.3%). Another weak data on sales will strengthen the opinion of market participants that the interest rate in Australia will soon be lowered.
The RBA's restrained position on the rate in Australia and, conversely, the Fed's positive view on the process of raising the interest rate in the US strengthen the position of sellers of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.
The negative medium-term dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains.

Support and resistance levels
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics at different time intervals show mixed dynamics.
Nevertheless, the pair AUD / USD continues to remain within the downward channel on the daily chart, trading below the important resistance levels 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014), 0.7470 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.
The nearest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November minima and the bottom line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).
Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the pair AUD / USD prevails.

Support levels: 0.7420, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7460, 0.7470, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7410. Stop-Loss 0.7465. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7465. Stop-Loss 0.7410. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed May 31, 2017 10:40 am
by TifiaFX
EuroStoxx50: decline in the fifth consecutive session
31/05/2017
Current dynamics

It seems that the main European stock indexes can finish this week in a negative territory. The election of the president of France is already behind, and the positive momentum begins to fade as weak macro statistics from the Eurozone arrive.
ECB President Mario Draghi earlier this week confirmed that economic recovery is accelerating, but core inflation is still too weak to change the monetary policy of the bank. Here and today in the Eurozone came some macro statistics, which confirm the words of Mario Draghi. So, the preliminary index of consumer prices (CPI) of the Eurozone in May grew by 1.4% (against the forecast of + 1.5% and + 1.9% in April). Unemployment in the Eurozone in April fell by 0.1%, but still remains high (9.3%).
Decrease in indices is observed throughout the world. So, the US stock indexes on Tuesday fell under the pressure of shares of oil and gas and financial companies. The oil and gas subindex in the S & P500 showed the worst results for the day, falling by 1.3%. The European StoxxEurope600 index lost another 0.3% on Tuesday, with banks and insurance companies leading the decline. The EuroStoxx50 index was down yesterday for the fifth consecutive session.
At the beginning of today's European trading session, the EuroStoxx50 index is trading in a narrow range near the mark of 3554.0, however, is under pressure from incoming weak macro statistics for the Eurozone.
As has been repeatedly announced by the leaders, the ECB is unlikely to go on winding up the extra soft monetary policy at the moment. The ECB management believes that the growth of the Eurozone economy is still weak enough to begin curtailing the QE program in the Eurozone. So far, this supports European indices. And still, among investors, there is talk that the ECB may announce the curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone. The ECB's next meeting on monetary policy will be held on June 8. As ECB leaders said earlier, the rate hike will not begin earlier than the quantitative easing program, at which the European Central Bank will buy European assets worth 60 billion euros a month, will be completed.

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the month against the backdrop of the election of the new French president, the EuroStoxx50 index reached a new annual maximum near the mark of 3680.0. After that, a gradual decline in the index started, and at the moment the EuroStoxx50 index is traded at the short-term support level of 3550.0 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
If the EuroStoxx50 index falls further, the next target will be the support level of 3525.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).
The level is strong enough. In general, the positive dynamics of the EuroStoxx50 index remains. In case of rebound from the level of 3525.0, the growth of the EuroStoxx50 index may resume. At least, the ECB's propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy contributes to this.
Medium-term short positions will become relevant only after the EuroStoxx50 index falls below the level of 3500.0 (March and April highs on the eve of the first round of presidential elections in France). The reduction targets will be support levels 3435.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the wave of growth since June 2016), 3380.0 (EMA144), 3325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 3525.0, 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0
Resistance levels: 3580.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 3520.0 Stop-Loss 3590.0. Take-Profit 3500.0, 3435.0, 3380.0, 3325.0
Buy Stop 3590.0. Stop-Loss 3520.0. Take-Profit 3600.0, 3680.0, 3700.0

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:53 am
by TifiaFX
AUD/USD: Against the background of weak macro data from China
01/06/2017

Current dynamics

After extremely volatile trading, the Australian dollar fell sharply during the Asian session today. After the release of optimistic data on retail sales in Australia in April (+ 1.0% vs. the forecast + 0.3%), the Australian currency strengthened. This is the largest monthly increase in more than two and a half years. However, soon the Australian dollar fell sharply after China's production report, which turned out to be weak, was published. The index of supply managers (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector from Caixin Media Co. In May, it fell to 49.6 (against 50.3 in April).
China is Australia's largest trade and economic partner and a consumer of Australian iron ore and coal. The growth of the Australian economy still depends heavily on the commodity sector. And the decline in commodity prices, as well as the slowdown in the economy of the Australian partner countries, have a strong impact on the Australian dollar, undervaluing its value.
At the same time, despite the unexpected growth in retail sales in April, other statistics still indicate a limited increase in consumer spending. Domestic consumption makes a big contribution to GDP growth. In view of the weak growth in consumption in Australia, some economists forecast zero or insignificant GDP growth for the first quarter.
The consumer confidence index is weak, salaries are growing slowly, and purchasing power is limited. House prices also began to decline, which unleashes the hands of the RBA in the matter of lowering the interest rate.
Earlier this month, the RBA retained its interest rate in Australia at 1.5%. However, the RBA can go on reducing the interest rate in the country due to record household debt, a record low salary growth and a weak labor market.
At the same time, the US dollar is showing growth today in the foreign exchange market.
Despite the problems that have arisen with the administration of the US President in implementing the plans for a new economic policy, investors focus on positive macro statistics coming from the United States.
President of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today expressed confidence that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.
Thus, the difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA is the main driver for reducing the pair AUD / USD.
Today we are waiting for data from the USA. Between 12:15 and 14:00 (GMT) a whole block of important macroeconomic indicators is published. Among the data - the index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector (in May) and the index of gradual acceleration of inflation. We expect weaker indicators than in the previous month, which could negatively affect the dollar. Nevertheless, in absolute terms, the figures look very positive. Also worth paying attention to the report of ADP on the level of employment in the private sector of the US for May. Investors often consider it a harbinger of the NFP, although no direct correlation with Non-Farm Payrolls is usually noted. Strong data positively affects the dollar. Here the growth is expected (185,000 versus 177,000 in April), which will support the US dollar. In general, macro statistics are expected to be very positive, which will have a positive impact on the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD.

Support and resistance levels
Since mid-March, the AUD / USD pair is actively declining in the downlink on the daily chart. The pair AUD / USD is below the important resistance levels 0.7510 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014, as well as the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour Chart).
The negative dynamics prevails.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November, May minima and the bottom line of the rising channel on the weekly chart). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
The alternative scenario is related to the return of the pair AUD / USD to the zone above the level of 0.7510 and further growth to the resistance levels of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760, 0.7840 (Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% correction to the fall wave from July 2014).
Fundamental factors create the prerequisites for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7380. Stop-Loss 0.7420. Take-Profit 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7420. Stop-Loss 0.7380. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7510, 0.7535, 0.7545, 0.7570, 0.7600

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:20 am
by TifiaFX
XAG/USD: pending publication of data from the labor market
02/06/2017
Current dynamics

The focus of attention of all participants of financial markets today is the publication of data from the US labor market, which is scheduled for 12:30 (GMT). Very positive data are expected. Thus, according to the forecast it is expected that the growth of the average hourly wage will be 0.2% (against 0.3% in April), unemployment will not grow (4.4% against 4.4% in April).
But perhaps the main focus will be on Non-Farm Payrolls (the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy).
Yesterday Automatic Data Processing Inc. And Moody's Analytics reported data that in May the number of jobs in the private sector in the US increased by 253,000, which is significantly better than the forecast (185,000 and 174,000 in the previous month). This is the highest growth in the number of jobs since 2014.
Recent positive macro data from the US significantly strengthened investors' opinion that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25% on June 13-14. So, positive ADP data on employment contributed to the growth of the dollar and the yield of treasury bonds. The index of the dollar WSJ rose by 0.2%, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.225% from 2.198% recorded on Wednesday.
Investors are not so much worried about slipping into plans to reform the tax system and stimulate budget spending in the US, focusing on macroeconomic indicators. So, the index of business activity ISM published in the manufacturing sector (for May) released yesterday with a value of 54.9 (the forecast was 54.5 and 54.8 in April). The index of business activity ISM in the manufacturing sector of the US economy is an important indicator of the state of the American economy as a whole. Along with the data from ADP, the publication of the ISM index further stimulated the closing of short positions in the dollar on the eve of today's NFP publication.
The Fed pays particular attention to data on the number of jobs, and by many investors they are perceived as the most important indicator of the state of the American economy. Now, many investors expect the Fed to raise rates more rapidly.
That's the president of the Fed-San Francisco and FOMC member John Williams today, that the strengthening of the US economy justifies "three or four rate hikes" this year.
If the data from the labor market, which are published today, really "do not disappoint", then the dollar will receive a powerful positive impulse before the Fed meeting on June 13-14. Then the market participants will have no doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors. Precious metals, which do not bring interest income, become cheaper in the conditions of the rate increase; the cost of their acquisition and storage is growing.
With disappointing data on the US labor market, the dollar may weaken significantly in the foreign exchange market, and demand for precious metals, particularly silver, with the continuing political tension in the US around President Donald Trump will grow again.

Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD could not gain a foothold above the key resistance level of 17.35 (EMA200 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart) and the third day is falling.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The pair XAG / USD is in the zone of short-term support levels 17.18 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 17.14 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). If the NFP data prove to be strong, the pair XAG / USD will break through the levels of 17.18, 17.14 and go to the support level of 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to fall in the pair since August 2016 and level 20.59) with the prospect of a downward movement - 15.72 (low of 2016).
You can return to consideration of long positions after fixing a pair above the level of 17.35.
Support levels: 17.18, 17.14, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Resistance levels: 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.10. Stop-Loss 17.28. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Buy Stop 17.28. Stop-Loss 17.10. Take-Profit 17.35, 17.58, 18.17, 18.55, 18.75

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:23 am
by TifiaFX
GBP/USD: on the eve of parliamentary elections
05/06/2017

Current dynamics

The PMI index (or the index of business activity) for the UK services sector in May was 53.8 (the forecast was 55.0, which is lower than the April index of the index 55.8). This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the service sector of Great Britain. The PMI of the UK service sector does not have such a strong impact on GDP as PMI in the manufacturing sector or the level of retail sales and consumer activity in the UK. At the same time, the decline in the PMI index for the service sector negatively affects the British currency. After the publication (08:00 GMT) of this index, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market.
Nevertheless, the GBP / USD pair closed its sharp decline (with a gap of 30 points after the next terrorist act in Great Britain last weekend) during today's European session at the opening of today's trading day.
Against the backdrop of the weakening dollar, the GBP / USD pair remains positive ahead of the June 8 elections to the UK Parliament.
As you know, in mid-April, British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections to ensure the dominant position of the Conservative Party in Parliament.
It is likely that in these 3 days before the election to the UK Parliament the frequency of various sociological polls of the country's population will increase, which will cause an increase in the volatility in the pound trades.
The elections, which will be held in the UK on June 8, attract the attention of investors. In the case of a significant advantage of conservatives in parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May will probably be able to agree with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit. If this happens, then the pound may significantly strengthen in the foreign exchange market.
This Thursday also will be a meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and next week will be a meeting of the Fed. It is widely expected that the Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. Nevertheless, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. Probably, all the same, that the risks associated with the implementation of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump, as well as his statements about the desirability of a cheaper dollar, outweigh the sellers of the dollar.
Thus, if conservatives manage to get a convincing majority in the June 8 elections, then the GBP / USD pair can significantly strengthen. Otherwise, the pound and GBP / USD pair are expected to weaken in the foreign exchange market.
In any case, this week, especially on the eve of June 8, the pound is expected to have increased volatility with sharp movements in both directions.

Support and resistance levels
The GBP / USD pair is currently trading near the balance line and the level of 1.2885, through which the 200-period moving average passes on the 1-hour chart. The GBP / USD pair keeps positive dynamics, trading in the uplink on the daily chart, above the key support levels of 1.2840 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 1.2800 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of buyers.
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.2925, the pair GBP / USD growth will resume, and the GBP / USD pair will go to the resistance levels 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
In the case of breakdown of the support level 1.2800 and further reduction in support, the level will be 1.2700 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Further GBP / USD dynamics will in many respects be determined by the dynamics of the dollar and the comments of the Fed, which will be sounded on June 14, after the decision on the interest rate in the US is made.
Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.2840, 1.2800, 1.2760, 1.2700, 1.2680, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2925, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 9:51 am
by TifiaFX
XAU/USD: investors prefer safe havens
06/06/2017
Current dynamics

The dollar continues to be under pressure following Friday's disappointing US labor market data for May. As you know, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the US fell by 0.1% to a level of 4.3%, the NFP was significantly below the forecast. The number of jobs outside of US agriculture in May increased by 138,000 compared with April (the forecast was +184,000).
Against the backdrop of a number of political and economic events that have recently occurred and are expected this week, investors prefer to withdraw their savings into safe haven assets - government bonds, yen, precious metals.
Strengthening tensions in the Middle East around Qatar, a number of recent terrorist attacks in Britain, lower expectations of budget stimulation of the US economy, the expectation of the speech of former FBI director James Komi before the US Congress on Thursday, as well as parliamentary elections in the UK and the ECB meeting also scheduled for Thursday - here are the main geopolitical risks that increase the demand for gold and other safe assets.
Gold enjoys strong demand even though the probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of gold. This precious metal does not bring interest income and can not compete with assets that generate such income, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the cost of acquiring gold and its storage is growing.
And, nevertheless, the increased geopolitical risks promote active purchases of gold.
So, at the beginning of today's European session, gold is trading near the level of 1288.00 dollars per troy ounce, which is $ 20 or 1.5% higher than the opening price of the current month.
At the same time, the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, fell to a value of 88.16, approaching the levels where it was before the victory of Donald Trump in the November 8 elections.
It is likely that before June 8, when the elections to the British Parliament and the ECB meeting on monetary policy are held, the pair XAU / USD will maintain a positive trend with a propensity for further growth.

Support and resistance levels
Having rebounded from the support level of 1220.00 (the lower border of the rising channel on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), since the middle of last month the pair XAU / USD continues to grow actively within the upward channel on the daily chart.
The nearest target and resistance level of 1292.00 (Year and April highs) can be passed to the nearest trading session. A more distant goal is the resistance level of 1305.00, just above which the upper limit of the ascending channel passes on the daily chart. The highs of the previous wave of growth of the pair XAU / USD are near the level of 1370.00.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
The reverse scenario is related to the return of the pair XAU / USD to support level 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) and further decrease to support levels 1257.00 (EMA200 on 4-hour chart), 1248.00 (Fibonacci level 50%). Breakdown of the key support level of 1240.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will increase the risks of a return to the downtrend.
Support levels: 1277.00, 1261.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00, 1220.00, 1200.00, 1185.00
Resistance levels: 1292.00, 1305.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1278.00. Stop-Loss 1293.00. Take-Profit 1270.00, 1257.00, 1248.00, 1240.00
Buy Stop 1293.00. Stop-Loss 1278.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1400.00

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics