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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 9:29 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has again risen
08/05/2017

Current dynamics

The general weakening of the US dollar, observed on Friday, helped the oil prices to adjust at the end of last week. The price of Brent oil after reaching a new local minimum during the Asian session of Friday near the level of 46.70 dollars per barrel could grow by the end of the American trading session to the level of 49.69. The price increase on Friday continued even after the data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes were published. The number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week (by 6 units to 703 units).
The victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election helped to ease concerns about the prospects of the European economy. The investors' mood also improved the information that Saudi Arabia will support the extension of OPEC arrangements with the participation of Russia and other major oil-producing countries on the reduction of production.
Nevertheless, some investors still doubt that a reduction in production will lead to a rapid and significant reduction in world reserves.
The growth in the production of shale oil in the US significantly alleviates OPEC's efforts to create an artificial deficit and stabilize prices in the oil market. Moreover, the US is increasing its oil exports to Asia. Approximately 40% of US oil exports were sent to Asia in February. At the same time, US oil companies have significant reserve capacity.
Last month, the EIA raised its forecast for oil production this year and next year to 9.2 million barrels per day and 9.9 million barrels per day, respectively. Against the backdrop of the growth of active drilling rigs the last three months production in the US remains above 9 million barrels per day.
On Tuesday, a monthly report is expected from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with a short-term forecast on the dynamics of oil production in the US. It is expected that EIA will again raise the forecast for oil production in the US, which could significantly worsen the mood of investors and increase the pressure on prices.
But the main current risks are connected, first of all, with the extension of OPEC agreements on oil production reduction. If the agreement on limiting production is not extended (the OPEC meeting will be held on May 25), the oil market may again rapidly return to the lows of 2016, when the barrel of Brent crude oil was just above $ 27.00.

Support and resistance levels
Since the middle of last month, the price for Brent crude oil has fallen sharply and has lost almost 15% to the current moment. Negative dynamics prevails. The price of Brent crude oil broke through the most important mid-term support levels of 52.45 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the weekly chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% From June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00) and decreases in the descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
In case of repeated testing of the support level of 48.35 (the bottom line of the descending channel on the daily chart), the price reduction may resume.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the monthly, weekly, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a price return above the level of 52.45. So far, there has been a strong negative dynamics.
Support levels: 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20
Levels of resistance: 50.00, 50.70, 51.70, 52.45

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 48.90. Stop-Loss Section 50.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20
Buy Stop 50.10. Stop-Loss 48.90. Take-Profit 50.70, 51.70, 52.45, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed May 10, 2017 10:17 am
by TifiaFX
USD/JPY: US government bond yield growth supports dollar
10/05/2017
Overview and dynamics

As the financial and geopolitical tensions in the world decrease (the elections in France, the election of a new president in South Korea, which prioritizes the establishment of relations with the northern neighbor), the monetary policy of the Fed is again on the forefront, aimed at its gradual tightening.
Increase in the propensity of investors to risk is caused by the sale of assets-shelters, such as gold, yen, as well as US government bonds. On Tuesday, the yield of 10-year US government bonds rose to the highest level in more than a month. The index of the dollar WSJ (reflecting the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies) increased by 0.3%, to 90.52.
Investors again focus their attention on the high probability of an interest rate increase in the US already in June. The probability of such an increase, according to the CME Group, is approximately 88%.
As the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan stated yesterday, the basic scenario of the Fed envisages three higher interest rates this year. According to Kaplan, raising rates should continue "gradually and patiently." The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, also said yesterday that the Fed should not lag behind the schedule for raising interest rates.
With an increase in interest rates, the US dollar becomes more attractive to investors seeking profitability. Now, because of the rapid increase in rates and the possible reduction in the Fed's balance among investors, there is concern that this year there may be a shortage of the US currency.
Concern over Trump's policy and the presidential elections in France is gradually dying out, and strong US macroeconomic data is helping the US dollar recover in the foreign exchange market.
After positive data from the US labor market published on Friday, it is worth paying attention to important data on retail sales and inflation in the US, which are published this Friday at 12:30 (GMT). These data will help the Fed better understand the state of the country's economy. A moderate increase in inflation is expected in April, which will positively affect the US dollar.
Against the backdrop of the strengthening of the "hawkish" position of the Fed on the monetary policy in the US, other major world central banks demonstrate a tendency to pursue a soft monetary policy. In late April, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged. Despite the fact that, according to the bank, the outlook for the economy has improved, inflation still lags behind the forecasts. The bank lowered the inflation forecast for this fiscal year to 1.4% against 1.5% earlier. The forecast for the next financial year remained unchanged at 1.7%.
The Board of the Bank of Japan voted for the preservation of the target level of 10-year government bonds at a zero mark, for maintaining the key rate at the level of -0.1%, and confirmed that the bank will continue to purchase government bonds worth 80 trillion yen per year. The Bank of Japan filed a clear signal that the possibility of raising rates was not yet being considered and that he would continue to pursue an extra soft monetary policy.
Most economists believe that the Bank of Japan will not take any action during the entire fiscal year 2017. The manager of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said today that the weak yen is a plus for capital spending, employment in Japan.
Thus, there is a clear divergence in the direction of the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the Fed, which will be the main driver of the pair USD / JPY for the near future.

Technical analysis
At the beginning of the month, the pair USD / JPY pushed back from the support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart), and having broken through an important resistance level of 113.00 (Fibonacci level of 50% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90, as well as the upper limit of the downward channel on Day chart), develops an upward trend.
On the weekly chart, a new ascending channel was formed, with the upper boundary passing near the level of 125.65 (highs of June 2015). If the growth continues, the level of 125.65 will be a long-term target for the pair USD / JPY. Medium-term goals within this upward channel are 116.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 118.60 (December and January highs), 121.30 (February and November highs).
The alternative scenario will be associated with the breakdown of the support level 113.00 and the return of the pair USD / JPY in the downward channel on the daily chart. The objectives of the decline are levels 111.70 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In case of breakdown of the support level 110.10 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), the negative dynamics of the pair USD / JPY will increase. The closest targets in this case will be the levels of 108.25 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April lows), 106.50 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6%), the breakdown of which will finally return the pair USD / JPY in a downtrend.
So far, the positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is dominating. Preferred are the long positions.
Support levels: 113.00, 112.60, 111.70, 111.15, 110.90, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50
Resistance levels: 114.00, 115.00, 116.00

Trading recommendations

Buy Stop 114.35. Stop Loss 113.60. Take-Profit 115.00, 116.00, 117.00, 118.60
Sell Stop 113.60. Stop Loss 114.35. Take-Profit 113.00, 112.60, 111.70, 111.15, 110.90, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu May 11, 2017 10:57 am
by TifiaFX
USD/CAD: amid rising oil prices
11/05/2017

Current dynamics

According to data provided yesterday by the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US fell by 5.247 million barrels in the week of April 29-May 5. Oil reserves in the US declined for the fifth week in a row, and this is the largest weekly decline this year. The forecast assumed a drop in inventories of 1.786 million barrels. The prices for oil in response to this message reacted with a sharp increase.
Commodity currencies, and above all, the Canadian dollar, have been supported by rising oil prices. The pair USD / CAD lost 40 points at the time of publication of this data, and the end of yesterday's trading day was already near the mark of 1.3650, which is almost 0.5% lower than the level of yesterday's trading day opening. At the beginning of today's trading day, the pair USD / CAD again rose, largely recouping yesterday's decline.
According to analysts of the oil market, the surplus of oil reserves in the world is still high. As expected, OPEC should extend or agree on a stronger production cut on May 25. If such an agreement is reached, then oil prices, and together with them, commodity currencies (including the Canadian dollar) will receive strong support. The expected OPEC agreement on the extension of agreements to reduce oil production is a strong "bearish" factor for the pair USD / CAD. The expected increase in the June Fed meeting (June 13-14) of the interest rate in the US is a strong “bullish” factor for the pair USD / CAD. As stated yesterday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren, "three increases in rates are justified during the current year, provided that the economy will grow in line with the forecasts".
Thus, the pair USD / CAD is on a kind of "balance of weights", and much will depend both on the decisions of the Fed and OPEC, as well as on accompanying statements. To determine the direction of further movement, the pair needs fundamental drivers.
From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA and Canada. At 12:30 (GMT) will be presented:
• US data - Producer Price Index (PPI), which estimates the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of manufacturing. A high result strengthens the US dollar, low - weakens. Forecast: in April the index rose to 0.2% (against -0.1% in March); A weekly report from the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The result above the expected indicates a weak labor market, which has a negative impact on the US dollar. The forecast is expected to increase to 245,000 versus 238,000 for the previous period, which should negatively affect the dollar;
• data for Canada - the price index for new housing for March. The high value of the indicator is a positive factor for CAD, and a low value is negative. Forecast: prices in March rose by 0.2%. At 14:30 (GMT) the quarterly report from the Bank of Canada is published, containing information on the state of the Canadian economy and the bank's policy.
Thus, during the publication of data (12:30 and 14:30 GMT), volatility in the USD / CAD pair is expected to grow.

Support and resistance levels
Since the beginning of the month, the pair USD / CAD is trading, basically, in the range between the levels 1.3750, 1.3650. Through the 1.3680 mark, at which the pair USD / CAD is trading in the middle of today's European session, the Fibonacci level is 23.6% (the downward correction for the pair's growth since early July 2014 and the 1.0650 mark) and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts were deployed to short positions.
In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 1.3680, the downside target will be support levels 1.3650, 1.3590 (November highs, December highs).
Nevertheless, there are all the prerequisites of a fundamental nature for the further growth of the US dollar against commodity currencies, including against the Canadian dollar.
The pair USD / CAD remains significantly above the key support level 1.3300 (EMA200 on the daily chart) in the uplink on the daily chart, the upper limit of which is near the 1.3900 level.
Much in the dynamics of the pair USD / CAD in the medium term will depend, first of all, on the dynamics of the US dollar and oil prices.
Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3650, 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3900, 1.3940, 1.4000

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3715. Stop-Loss 1.3670. Take-Profit 1.3750, 1.3800, 1.3850, 1.3900, 1.3940
Sell Stop 1.3670. Stop-Loss 1.3715. Take-Profit 1.3590, 1.3510, 1.3300

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 9:29 am
by TifiaFX
FTSE100: Positive dynamics of the index persists
15/05/2017

Current dynamics

After in April British Prime Minister Theresa May unexpectedly announced early parliamentary elections the British stock market collapsed. The index of the London stock exchange FTSE100 has lost almost 2.9%. It was followed by all European major stock indexes. Early general elections in the UK would allow Prime Minister Theresa May to consolidate the dominant position of the Conservative Party in parliament on the eve of the June elections in order to negotiate with the EU on more favorable conditions for Brexit.
Despite the collapse in April, the FTSE100 index was able not only to recover completely, but to exceed the annual absolute maximum recorded in March near the 7447.0 mark.
At the beginning of today's European session, the FTSE100 index is declining; however, it is still in positive territory, trading near the 7444.0 mark with a rise after more than 1200 points (+ 19%) in the referendum on Brexit at the end of June.
The focus of traders will be today the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May, which will begin at 19:00 (GMT). It is necessary to take into account the possibility of a sharp increase in volatility during the speech of Theresa May.
It is also worthwhile to be careful when opening trading positions tomorrow, when at 08:30 (GMT) inflation data are published in the UK for April. As expected, annual inflation accelerated to 2.6% from 2.3% in the previous month. The sharp increase in inflation in the country, gives grounds to assume that the Bank of England can again return to consideration of the question of raising the interest rate in the UK. And this is a negative factor for the British stock market.
Nevertheless, weak wage growth rates in the UK, which are lagging behind the rate of inflation in the country, can cause the British to cut their spending, which in turn can cause a slowdown in the national economy.
For this reason, the Bank of England will refrain from tightening monetary policy in the country, which is a positive factor for the British stock market. If the inflation data published in the UK tomorrow is below the forecast (+ 0.4% in April and + 2.6% in annual terms), the FTSE100 index will respond with growth.

Support and resistance levels
By mid-March, the FTSE100 index rose to its maximum near the 7447.0 level. Over the past two months, the FTSE100 index has fallen, adjusting to the support level of 7090.0. Nevertheless, recovering from a sharp fall after the statement of Theresa May about early parliamentary elections, the FTSE100 index is again rising in the uplink on the weekly chart.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts recommend long positions.
While the FTSE100 index is above the short-term support level of 7295.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), positive dynamics remain.
In the event of a breakdown of this level, there may be risks of reducing the FTSE100 index to support levels of 7090.0 (February lows, October highs), 7050.0 (EMA200 and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart).
Breakdown of the level of 7050.0 and further decline will mean a reversal and the end of the upward trend of the FTSE100 index.
Nevertheless, the fundamental background creates the prerequisites for further growth of the index.
While the FTSE100 index is above 7295.0, long positions are more preferable.
The Bank of England maintains an extra soft monetary policy, which is a strong positive factor for the British stock market.
Support levels: 7386.0, 7295.0, 7200.0, 7090.0, 7050.0
Resistance levels: 7450.0, 7500.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 7365.0. Stop-Loss 7460.0. Take-Profit 7350.0, 7295.0, 7200.0, 7100.0, 7050.0
Buy Stop 7460.0. Stop-Loss 7365.0. Take-Profit 7500.0, 7520.0, 7550.0

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue May 16, 2017 10:17 am
by TifiaFX
S&P500: US indices rise against the backdrop of rising commodity prices
16/05/2017
Current dynamics

The recovery of prices for oil and other commodities supports US stock indices. The increase in prices for iron ore and base metals supported the shares of companies in the mining sector. In the oil market, positive dynamics has also been prevailing over the last week. After last Wednesday the Ministry of Energy of the United States presented data that showed a significant drop in oil and petroleum products in the United States, oil prices have appreciated by 8.5% by today. At the same time, investors do not lose hope for an extension of the agreement on the reduction of oil production in the framework of OPEC. So, recently the Saudi oil Minister Khaled Al-Falikh and the Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak expressed support for the extension of the agreement on the reduction of production for another 9 months. The next OPEC meeting will be held on May 25.
As a result, against the background of positive expectations on the oil market, WTI futures for NYMEX closed on Monday with an increase of $ 1.01 (or 2.1%) at $ 48.85 per barrel. The sub-index of the oil and gas sector in the S&P500 grew by 0.6%, which gave a positive momentum to the entire S&P500 index. As a result of yesterday's trading day, the S&P500 grew by 0.5%, Nasdaq Composite - by 0.5%, Dow Jones Industrial Average - by 0.4%.
From the US continue to receive positive macroeconomic data. Despite some deviation from the forecasted values in the smaller direction, in general, the indicators of inflation and the labor market of the USA point to the growth of the economy in the country. As long as the economy is growing, investors will prefer stocks and other asset-safe havens and other risky instruments.
Nevertheless, investors still believe that the Fed will raise interest rates in June. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate hike next month is estimated at 74% (last week the probability was at 83%). The likelihood of an early increase in the interest rate is holding back from more active purchases on the US stock market, which, nevertheless, is dominated by a positive trend.
From the news for today we are waiting for the data from the USA. At 12:30 (GMT), a report on the dynamics of new permits for the construction of houses in the US for April, which is an important indicator of the housing market, will be presented. The higher the value, the more positive the effect is on the stock indices. Forecast: 1.27 million new permits (against 1.26 million permits last month). If the data prove to be better than the forecast, then the US indices will grow. At 13:15 (GMT) the report of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve on the volume of industrial production and use of production capacities for April is published. A high result may indicate the existence of inflationary expectations and, consequently, a rapid rate increase, so a high figure strengthens the US dollar.
But at the same time, strong macro data contribute to the growth of investor confidence in the stability and growth of the US economy. And this is a positive fundamental factor for the US stock market. In general, the positive background for stock indices remains.

Support and resistance levels
Since the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index has slightly decreased. Nevertheless, the positive dynamics of the S & P500 index remains. Since February 2016, the S & P500 index has been steadily growing and is in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
At the moment, the S & P500 again tests the resistance level of 2400.0, reached in early March, for breakdown.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily, weekly, monthly charts went to the side of buyers. In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be level 2412.0 (the upper limit of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
The reverse scenario will be related to the breakdown of the short-term support level 2392.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and the decrease with the nearest targets near the levels 2360.0 (the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart), 2326.0 (April lows). The breakdown of support levels of 2275.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2265.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Support levels: 2392.0, 2375.0, 2360.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0
Resistance levels: 2400.0, 2412.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2390.0. Stop-Loss 2405.0. Objectives 2375.0, 2360.0, 2326.0, 2275.0, 2265.0
Buy Stop 2405.0. Stop-Loss 2390.0. Objectives 2412.0, 2420.0

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Wed May 17, 2017 10:50 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: Middle of the range and key level 51.70
17/05/2017

Current dynamics

Interrupted by a series of non-stop 4-day growth, the price for Brent crude oil finished yesterday's trading day with a decrease of 1% or $ 0.6 per barrel. Published at the end of yesterday's trading day, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was the final chord of yesterday's decline in the price of oil. According to the API, oil reserves in the US increased by 882,000 barrels in the week of May 6-12. The presented data again revived fears of investors that the growth of oil production in the US is negating the efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to restore the balance in the market.
Oil prices in different directions are pulling information on the growth of oil reserves and production outside the cartel and the expectation that OPEC and countries outside the cartel are supporting the extension of the deal to cut production. On Monday, it was reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia expressed a propensity to extend the agreement to reduce production for another 9 months. The OPEC meeting on this issue will be held next week (May 25).
The skepticism about the efficiency of the OPEC deal returned to the oil market after the International Energy Agency (IEA) published data on Tuesday that according to which in the 1st quarter commercial oil reserves in developed countries increased by 24.1 million barrels. IEA data also indicate the growth of stocks in oil storage facilities and in April.
According to analysts of the oil market, OPEC will be able to achieve the goal, and world oil reserves in the storage facilities will drop to an average of 5-year level provided that in the next year the supply of oil is reduced by 1 million barrels per day. Some of the economists are of the opinion that the OPEC reduction deal should be extended for 2018 as well.
The increase in the number of drilling rigs and the increase in production in the United States go faster and larger than expected, offsetting the efforts of OPEC. This could lead to the fact that production in the US will continue to grow, and support from OPEC in 2018 will end. In this case, the risks of a sharp drop in oil prices rise significantly against the backdrop of a growing surplus of oil supply.
Today at 14:30 (GMT) will be a report from the US Department of Energy on the change in oil and petroleum products in the US over the past week. It is expected that oil and petroleum products in the US fell by another 2.283 million barrels (after a recent weekly reduction of 5.247 million barrels). When confirming the forecast, the price of oil should rise.
Closer to the end of the US trading session (18:00 GMT) on Friday a report will be published from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the US. It is expected that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States has again increased (in the previous week their number was 712 units). The next growth will negatively affect oil prices.

Support and resistance levels
After a sharp decline at the beginning of the month to 47.00, the price of Brent crude oil was able to significantly adjust to today's expectations on the expectation that OPEC will be able to agree on an extension of the agreement to reduce oil production.
Today, Brent crude trades near the key resistance level at 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart). This level is also a kind of middle line of the range formed between the levels 52.35 (EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart) and 50.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).
The price for Brent crude oil remains within the descending channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which is near the support level of 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level).
If the support level breaks through 50.70, the price will go down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In the case of consolidation below 46.20 (50% Fibonacci level), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
An alternative scenario for growth is associated with a return of the price above the level of 52.35. Long-term goals in the case of this scenario are near 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 56.70 (April highs), 57.50, 58.40 (highs of the year).
Support levels: 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20
Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.35

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 51.25. Stop-Loss 51.85. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.00, 48.35, 48.00, 47.10, 46.20
Buy Stop 51.85. Stop-Loss 51.25. Take-Profit 52.35, 54.00, 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 10:38 am
by TifiaFX
EUR/USD: short-term downward correction is likely
18/05/2017

Current dynamics

Aggravated in the US political uncertainty caused sales in global stock markets, especially American ones. Investors once again fear that the Trump administration will face difficulties in carrying out tax reform and budget incentives.
The dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The ICE dollar index, estimating its rate to the basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.4% to 97,685, being near the minimum mark since November 4. Yesterday was also associated with an increase in demand for asylum assets, such as the yen, gold, US government bonds. So, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell yesterday to 2.247% from 2.329%.
We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast: 240 000 (against 236 000 the previous week), which should negatively affect the dollar.
Also at the same time published an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in May. The result is higher than expected (19.5 against 22.0 in April) will strengthen the US dollar.

Support and resistance levels
Despite today's decline, the positive dynamics of the pair EUR / USD persists. On a strong positive momentum, the EUR / USD pair broke the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart near 1.1100. In case of resumption of growth and renewal of the local and annual maximum near the 1.1170 level, the targets will be levels 1.1280 (Fibonacci level 23.8% corrective growth from the minimums reached in February 2015 in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900), 1.1340 (EMA144 on a weekly basis Chart).
In case the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone below the support level 1.1100 (the upper line of the rising channel on the daily chart), the fall in the EUR / USD pair may accelerate into the channel. Strong levels of support are also levels 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950. Breakdown of support levels 1.0820 (EMA200), 1.0780 (EMA144 on the daily chart) will cancel the uptrend.
Support levels: 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780
Resistance levels: 1.1156, 1.1170, 1.1200, 1.1280, 1.1340

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1115. Stop-Loss 1.1175. Objectives 1.1100, 1.1080, 1.1035, 1.1000, 1.0950, 1.0900, 1.0875, 1.0820, 1.0800, 1.0780
Buy Stop 1.1175. Stop-Loss 1.1115. Objectives 1.1200, 1.1280. 1.1340

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 10:52 am
by TifiaFX
DJIA: American stock market rebounds
19/05/2017
Current dynamics

World and, above all, American stock markets are recovering after a serious fall two days ago. The fall of the dollar and US stock indices on Wednesday was caused by reports in the media that Trump allegedly asked former FBI director James Komi, who was dismissed from his post a few days earlier, to stop the investigation against Michael Flynn, who previously held the position of adviser President for national security. The news came after reports that Trump handed classified information to Russian authorities, which could harm the US national security. Against this background, talk of possible impeachment of Trump increased.
Nevertheless, since yesterday, there has been a recovery of the dollar and US indices. Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, hastened to reassure investors.
Stephen Mnuchin said that "President Trump is determined to carry out the tax reform as quickly as possible". Loretta Mester, who is also a member of the FOMC of the Fed, gave a positive assessment to the US economy and said that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates to "avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability that may arise if the economy overheats".
The dollar and US indices received yesterday also support from published data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US, which declined for the third consecutive week, indicating a steady increase in the number of jobs. The index of business activity for May, published by the Fed-Philadelphia, significantly exceeded the expectations of economists, which also gave confidence to investors (38.8 against the forecast of 19.5 and 22.0 in April).
Today, the economic calendar for the United States is empty; however, it is worth paying attention to the speech of FOMC member and head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard (starts at 13:15 GMT). It is likely that Bullard, also following Mester, will point to a high probability of an early interest rate increase in the United States. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve on this issue will be held on June 13-14, and many investors are already laying a price hike on prices in this meeting.
According to the CME Group, the probability of an increase in rates next month is again estimated at 74%. On the one hand, the probability of an early increase in the interest rate is holding back from more active purchases on the American stock market, raising the rate makes the dollar more expensive. On the other hand, as the head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, pointed out more often, the rate increase speaks about the strength of the American economy, and this is a positive factor for the dollar and the US stock market, which, nevertheless, is dominated by positive dynamics.

Support and resistance levels
As a result of the recent fall, the DJIA index has lost all the achievements of recent weeks, falling below the opening level of the previous month near the mark 20650.0. The DJIA index broke through the support level of 20620.0 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart), falling to the level of 20500.0.
With the opening of today's trading day and the beginning of the European session, the DJIA index continues to recover, once again returning to the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which passes above the level of 21170.0 (absolute and annual highs).
To confirm the upward dynamics, the DJIA index needs to gain a foothold above the level 20825.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts turned to long positions.
Positive dynamics of the index can fully recover already above the level of 20820.0. Long positions can be opened already in the zone above the resistance level 20750.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
In an alternative scenario, the index should drop below the local and May low near the 20500.0 mark
If the downward trend is to increase, the decline in the index may continue to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (December highs), 19850.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery In February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% is near the mark of 21170.0).
The change in the bullish trend for the bearish will occur only after the DJIA index falls below the level of 19850.0. So far, the bullish trend prevails.
Support levels: 20620.0. 20500.0, 20360.0, 20110.0, 19990.0, 19850.0
Resistance levels: 20750.0, 20820.0, 20885.0, 20980.0, 21170.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 20610.0. Take-Profit 20750.0, 20820.0, 20885.0, 20980.0, 21170.0
Sell Stop 20610.0. Stop-Loss 20760.0. Take-Profit 20500.0, 20360.0, 20110.0, 19990.0, 19850.0


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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 10:24 am
by TifiaFX
Brent: Investors' optimism is growing
22/05/2017

Current dynamics

The previous week, oil prices continued to rise. Optimism of investors was caused by media reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favor of a 9-month extension of the agreement. Other OPEC member countries support the extension of the deal to reduce production for 9 months, said Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih. According to Al-Falih, the extension of the deal until March 2018 will allow OPEC to achieve its goal and reduce world reserves to an average of 5-year level, and restore the balance in the oil market. As is known, at the end of last year, 13 OPEC countries and 11 countries outside the cartel agreed on a total reduction of oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels a day until June.
However, this was not enough to restore the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. Other major oil-producing countries, such as the United States and Canada, have been actively increasing production, while the countries participating in the agreement have reduced production.
Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published data according to which in the 1st quarter commercial oil reserves in developed countries increased by 24.1 million barrels. IEA data also indicate the growth of stocks in oil storage facilities and in April.
The US continues to increase oil production, which largely neutralizes the efforts of OPEC. So, according to the data provided by American oil service company Baker Hughes on Friday, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States again rose to 720 units in the previous week.
Some economists doubt that the OPEC deal will have the desired effect on the supply surplus. The increase in the number of drilling rigs and the increase in production in the United States go faster and larger than expected. This could lead to the fact that production in the US will continue to grow, and support from OPEC in 2018 will end. In this case, the risks of a sharp drop in oil prices rise significantly against the backdrop of a growing surplus of oil supply.
Nevertheless, the oil market is on the rise. The next OPEC meeting will be held on May 25 in Vienna, and much in the future dynamics of oil prices will depend on the decisions taken at this meeting. If it is indeed decided to extend the agreement for another 9 months, and also expressed the intention to continue to actively influence the balance of the oil market in the direction of reducing the level of oil supply, then oil prices will be a powerful incentive for further growth.

Support and resistance levels
The previous week the price for Brent crude oil has significantly strengthened. The growth was almost 6%. The price has added 3 dollars per barrel, having risen to the level of 53.86 dollars.
Today's trading day began for oil with a small gap in price. However, in the future the momentum faded and the price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 54.00 (today's opening price).
Given that today the dollar is strengthening in the foreign exchange market, partially restoring its positions after a strong fall last week, it is also likely to reduce oil prices. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts went to the side of sellers, signaling an overdue downward correction.
The price is on the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart (level 54.00).
Withdrawal from this level will create prerequisites for further price reduction inside the channel to support levels of 52.35 (EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart), 52.05, 51.70 (EMA200 on the daily chart). A stronger correction is possible to support level 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark).
If the support level breaks through 50.70, the price will go down to levels 48.35, 47.10, 46.20. In case of consolidation below level 46.20 (the Fibonacci level of 50% and the lower border of the descending channel on the daily chart), the upward trend in the price of Brent crude oil will be canceled.
The scenario for price growth is connected with the breakdown of the level of 54.00 and further strengthening to the levels of 55.60 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 56.70 (April highs), 57.50, 58.40 (highs of the year).
On the daily and weekly charts, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators recommend long positions, and the price on the weekly chart is in the middle of the rising channel, the upper limit of which runs near the level of 62.00.
Support levels: 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70, 48.35, 47.00, 46.20
Resistance levels: 54.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.50

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 53.80. Stop-Loss 54.30. Take-Profit 53.00, 52.35, 52.05, 51.70, 51.40, 50.70
Buy Stop 54.30. Stop-Loss 53.80. Take-Profit 55.00, 55.60, 56.70, 57.00, 57.50

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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 10:36 am
by TifiaFX
NZD/USD: commodity prices rose
23/05/2017

Current dynamics

Against the background of the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in commodity prices, the NZD / USD pair has significantly increased over the past 1.5 weeks. Despite the growth of expectations of an increase in the interest rate in the US, the US dollar demonstrates a large-scale decline in the foreign exchange market. According to the CME Group, investors are expecting an increase in the Fed's key rate at a meeting scheduled for June 13-14 at 78.5% against 59% in mid-April. The probability of an increase in the rate in July is 80.0%, in September 86%. Nevertheless, the US dollar is losing all acquisitions since November 8, when the new US president was elected. The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, decreased by 0.1% to 88.60.
The NZD / USD pair also rose on the eve of the publication of forecasts for milk powder prices for the New Zealand company Fonterra, the largest dairy producer in the country. As you know, milk powder is the main export item of New Zealand. It is expected that the forecast of Fonterra for milk powder prices will rise to 6.75 US dollars per kilogram.
In addition, on Thursday (02:00 GMT), the budget of the New Zealand government is published for the fiscal year 2017-2018. It is expected that the budget will show a moderate surplus and reflect the good state of the national economy. The growth of the budget surplus and the New Zealand economy leads to an increase in expectations about the increase in the key interest rate of the central bank of New Zealand, which will positively affect the New Zealand dollar.
Nevertheless, the RBNZ stated that it will keep its stake on the same level due to the uncertainty surrounding the US economic and foreign trade policy up to Q3 2018.
If the Fed starts a gradual increase in the rate in the US, then the hours of the balance will be steadily and gradually tilt in favor of the US dollar. The difference between the monetary policies of RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next few months.
From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the US, which are published between 12:55 and 14:00 (GMT). Business activity indices (PMI) in the US manufacturing and service sectors for May (preliminary release) should show a slight increase (53.0 and 53.1, respectively). Also today, comments Fed representatives - Neil Kashkari and FOMC member Patrick Harker, at 13:00, 19:00 and 21:00, respectively.
At 22:45 (GMT), the main articles of New Zealand's foreign trade balance for April will be published, which is expected with a decrease in surplus (NZ $ 268 million versus NZ $ 332 million in the previous month). In this case, the New Zealand dollar may decline.
Tomorrow, the attention of traders will be focused on the publication (18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the last meeting of the committee on open market operations of the Fed ("FOMC minutes"), which may contain indications of the future of US monetary policy. Volatility, as always, is expected at this time high for all dollar pairs.

Technical analysis
As a result of growth during the last three trading sessions, the NZD / USD pair came close to the resistance level 0.7030 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart, the upper limit of the descending channel on the weekly chart). A little below this level, near the mark of 0.7000, the upper limit of the descending channel passes on the daily chart. It's not easy to pass this level to NZD / USD pair.
Only in case of fastening above the resistance level 0.7070 (EMA200 on the monthly chart) can consideration of long medium-term positions in the NZD / USD pair.
The most likely rebound from the current level of 0.7030. As the political tension in the US decreases, the US dollar will begin to recover in the foreign exchange market. In this case, the high probability of a rapid increase in the interest rate in the United States will again come to the fore, and this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar.
The return of the pair NZD / USD under the support level 0.6945 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, March, April highs) will return the downward dynamics to the pair NZD / USD.
The targets will be the levels of 0.6885 (March lows), 0.6860 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of the upward correction to the global wave of decline of the pair from the level of 0.8800, which began in July 2014, the low of December 2016), 0.6818 (May minima and the bottom line of the downward channel on Day chart).
In case of breakdown of the support level of 0.6818, the global downtrend of the NZD / USD pair, which began in July 2014, will resume. The minima of the wave of this trend are close to the level of 0.6260, which were reached in September 2015, and from which the current upward correction began.
Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818, 0.6800, 0.6680
Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070


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*) Actual and detailed analytics can be found on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics