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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:42 am
by CSFX.Support
Daily Report on September 13, 2016



Asian shares edged up on Tuesday, taking their cue from European and U.S equities last night which shot up on the dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard. In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Brainard – one of six permanent voters on the Fed committee – stated that a labor market which is not-yet-at-full-employment and economic weakness abroad may demand more prudence in the move toward tighter Fed policy.

Brainard’s comments weakened the case for a September rate hike, triggering the recovery in stocks and weakening the U.S dollar.

Large Japanese manufacturers turned optimistic over the country’s business conditions in the third quarter, the joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute showed on Tuesday. The business survey index (BSI) which measures business sentiment among big manufacturers’ during the July-September period, came out at 2.9, beating expectations for a reading of -6.5.

The Australian dollar dipped slightly in early trade following comments from Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Christopher Kent on the need for a weaker currency. The central bank official said that the Aussie had not depreciated as much as expected in response to weaker commodity prices and cuts in interest rates that have brought the cash rate to a record low of 1.5%.

Australia’s biggest trading partner, China, is reporting some signs of recovery after some disappointments in July. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that factory output, investment and retail sales all exceeded forecasts. Industrial production rose by 6.3 percent from a year earlier in August, retail sales climbed 10.6 percent last month, compared to the same period last year while fixed-asset investment increased 8.1 percent year to date.



Technicals

EURJPY



Fig: EURJPY H4 Technical Chart

EURJPY generally has been on a decline from as high as 115.938. The short-term MA has just crossed over the long-term MA from above, consolidating the downtrend. Sellers are still overwhelming the market, suggesting more down moves which may push the pair to as low as 113.930.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 114.400, Take profit at 113.930, Stop loss at 114.430



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

After failed attempts to break above the 50% retracement at 0.74715, NZDUSD not only fell back into the ascending trading channel but also hit a more-than-one-week low at around 0.72898. The pair pulled back from the lower boundary of the channel and is currently facing firm resistance at 0.73420. Weakening bulls have failed to push the price past the MA20. The market remains in bearish territory. With the RSI pointing towards the oversold zone, further declines are expected.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.73370, Take profit at 0.73110, Stop loss at 0.73650



GBPCAD



Fig: GBPCAD H4 Technical Chart

GBPCAD has built upon the bullish formation, after some corrective moves. Buyers have reigned in the market since mid-August and taken the pair considerably higher. The two MAs placed below the price action are fueling the bullish momentum but the resistance at 1.74500 should be watched closely, as the market has reversed from this zone on multiple occasions previously

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop 1.74100, Take profit at 1.74500, Stop loss at 1.73660



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver is struggling around the major resistance level at 19.2000, and the upside currently seems limited as the two MAs placed above the price action, and are casting downward pressure on prices. The last three candles with long upper shadows and almost no lower shadows show strong but careful bulls moving cautiously when the price nears the key resistance level. The %K line has entered the overbought zone, and may cross through the %D line from above, signaling a possible pullback.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 19.100, Take profit at 18.850, Stop loss at 19.400



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S crude prices continued to trade within the triangle formation, and have just pulled back from the upper boundary connecting lower lows since August 19. The 23.6% retracement level is within sight of the oil price. However, recently this level has been broken through quite easily. Therefore, if the bear can sustain its momentum, WTI may trader lower towards the lower boundary of the trading range.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 45.80, Take profit at 45.00, Stop loss at 46.40



EURO50



Fig: EuroStoxx50 H4 Technical Chart

Euro Stoxx 50 index rebounded from below the 38.2% level and broke back into the ascending trading range that has enveloped the recent price action. RSI has rallied from the oversold territory to near the 50 line. The resistance at 3050.00 is currently within sight of the price action. We should wait for the index to surpass this level before an uptrend can be confidently confirmed.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3050.00, Take profit at 3074.30, Stop loss at 3040.00

GBP/USD signal by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:20 pm
by CSFX.Support
GBP/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 12:35 13/09/2016

Till GMT 21:00 13/09/2016

Buy at1.32000

Take profit at1.32500

Stop loss at1.31000

USDJPY Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:31 pm
by CSFX.Support
Image

Japanese Data Surprises Markets – Traders Undecided Ahead Of BOJ/FED


The Japanese Yen was almost unchanged against the U.S dollar in the early European session on Tuesday after having risen to the highest since last Thursday at 101.409. The Yen was powered by upbeat data released earlier today. Meanwhile the greenback nursed losses following the decline on Monday as the case for a September rate increase became “less compelling”.

Adding to Monday’s core machinery orders data that unexpectedly rose by 4.9%, (contrasting considerably with estimates calling for a decline of 2.8%), Japan’s economic data extended the upbeat sentiment today, offering some encouragement to policymakers working towards re-energizing business investment, domestic demand and price growth.

According to a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, large Japanese manufacturers turned optimistic over the country’s business conditions in the third quarter. The business survey index (BSI) which measures business sentiment among big manufacturers’ for the July-September period, came out at 2.9, beating expectations for a reading of -6.5.

In other notable data readings, the Japanese economy grew at a pace greater than initially reported. Data released on Thursday indicated that the reading for the annualized growth rate was revised upwards to 0.7% in the second quarter (on a year on year basis). The preliminary reading had reported a 0.2% rate of expansion. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the world’s third biggest economy expanded by 0.2%, largely due to upbeat capital expenditure and inventories, which outpaced the decline in domestic and overseas demand caused by a strong yen.

The Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on September 20-21, where it will assess the effectiveness of stimulus measures deployed recently within the economy. On the same day that BoJ policymakers announce the results of their comprehensive assessment, the Federal Open Market Committee will gather in Washington to discuss the next steps within their monetary policy, and any possibility of a rate hike at the meeting.

Fed officials are expected to go into the meeting divided. Besides some governors claiming that the U.S labor market has come close to full employment and urging a rate hike sooner, rather than later, Fed voter Lael Brainard has opined that the Fed should be patient and wait for more evidence of stronger consumer spending and rising inflation. In a speech to the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Brainard maintained her dovish stance on rate policy, and referring to potential weakness at home and risks of an economic downturn abroad, as potential risk factors.


The Japanese Yen has generally been on a rise against the USD, but is trading sideways around the key level at 102.000. While the RSI is swinging back and forth around the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory, the ADX index has turned lower to 24.95 from the high at 42.57, suggesting no clear opinion being formed in the market. With no data releases scheduled till the end of the day, neutral sentiment is expected to reign in the pair.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 102.500, Take profit at 102.000, Stop loss at 103.050

Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:18 pm
by CSFX.Support
Note 7’s Troubles Spell Boom For Iphone7 – Apple Defying Global Stock Sell Off

Against the backdrop of the global selloff in stocks, Apple was the only component of the Dow Jones gaining ground on Tuesday, and it was just one among the very few constituents of the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index, that were trading in the green.

Apple shares surged nearly 3% after T-Mobile US. Inc. reported that advance orders for the iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus during the Friday-Monday period last week were nearly four times that of the previous record over similar time frames.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 108.20, take profit at 108.80, Stop loss at 107.50

Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:25 am
by CSFX.Support
Daily Report on September 14, 2016



Asian shares dropped on Wednesday as investors were questioning whether the stimulus programs being run by major central banks’ have reached their limits. Meanwhile, the U.S dollar retreated against most of its peers after jumping 0.6% on Tuesday amid rising Treasury yields and a selloff in stock markets worldwide.

Wall Street fell to its lowest since early July, led by losses in the energy sector as oil prices tumbled following reports that the global supply glut will extend into next year. The IEA sparked an oil rout by cutting oil demand forecasts by 100,000 barrels a day for this year and 200,000 barrels in 2017, given the economic fatigue in China, India, Europe and the U.S.

Having plunged as much as 3% in the previous session, crude prices re-gained lost ground in the Asian trading session today, as data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a buildup of 1.4 million barrels in crude oil stocks last week, lower than a 3.8 million-barrel increase expected by economists. Official oil inventory data will be issued by the U.S. government later today.

In a video message aired at a seminar in Tokyo organized by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that downside risks to the global economic outlook are rising, but expressed optimism that recent monetary policy changes by the Bank of Japan are gradually feeding through to the real economy.

According to the Nikkei newspaper, the BOJ is considering further cuts to its interest rates, and is likely to make its negative rate policy the centerpiece of future monetary easing in order to reach the 2% inflation target, as the asset buying programs have neared their limits.



Technicals

AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie has witnessed its steepest downfall since June 24 which helped the pair AUDUSD to break through two important supports at the 23.6% and 38.2% levels easily. The price attempted to breach the 50.0% retracement as well but unfortunately, profit taking caused the pair to pull back. Suppressed by the two MAs placed above the price action, the current up moves are expected to lose their strength once the price hits the resistance at 0.74900.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 0.74900, Take profit at 0.74530, Stop loss at0.75255



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been experiencing some corrective moves after soaring strongly to the solid resistance at 1.31900. The pair even surpassed the high at 1.31470 reached on September 01. As can be seen from the RSI chart, the market has cooled down after a sharp rally that pushed the price into the overbought zone. Still, ADX is pointing upwards, suggesting underlying bullish momentum.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 1.31470, Take profit at 1.31470, Stop loss at 1.31130



EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP is moving sideways above the support level at 0.84950 after the pair successfully broke above this level yesterday. This consolidation period is the result of a market that has entered the overbought state. Further advances are anticipated as the MA20 has already penetrated the MA50 from below. Both MA's are placed below the price action.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 0.84950, Take profit at 0.95620, Stop loss at 0.84440



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold is off a one and a half week low at 1313.45 as bulls stepped in and supported the a bounce-back from the support at 1315.00. The short-term MA has penetrated the long-term MA from above, and both MA's are currently placed above the price action, casting downward pressure on gold prices. Looking back at previous consolidations, the resistance at 1325.00 may be a point from which the precious metal may again reverse lower.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 1325.00, Take profit at 1315.00, Stop loss at 1330.00



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural gas continued to extend the bullish momentum, extending the up-move from the low at the 23.6% retracement (at 2.668) recorded on September 07. The price has broken above the ascending trendline connecting higher lows but the solid resistance at 2.940 is within sight and a pullback at this level may be expected as market has been overextended for a while.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 2.940, Take profit at 2.900, Stop loss at 2.965.



DAX30



Fig: DAX 30 H4 Technical Chart

The DAX 30 index opened the European session with a gap up today. Even though the index is under the spell of the two moving averages placed above the price action, the %K line has pulled back and is likely to cross over the %D line, suggesting a reversal in market direction. Traders may need to wait for a clear confirmation of an uptrend before placing a trade.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 10400.00, Take profit at 10350.00, Stop loss at 10472.50

Copper Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:41 pm
by CSFX.Support
Copper Rallies on More Signs of Rising Demand And Falling Supply

Copper rose considerably on Wednesday, surging to over three-week highs at $2.1278/lb. The rally was driven by positive economic data in the United States and China recently, and the covering of short positions in China ahead of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival in China.

Data from the Census Bureau on Tuesday indicated that U.S household income registered a record growth rate in 2015 after years of stagnation. The median household income adjusted for inflation increased by 5.2%, or $2,798, to $56,516, from a year earlier, indicating the effects of sustained job growth in lifting the living standards of ordinary citizens who had been largely left behind by the recovery in the economy.

According to the report, the unemployment rate has declined from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009 to 4.9 percent last month, while income advanced by 4.4% to $57,200 in native-born households. The number of people living in poverty fell by 3.5 million to 43.1 million last year, pushing the poverty rate down to 13.5% in 2015 from 14.8% in 2014.

In China, a raft of economic data published this week contributed to signs of improvement in the world’s top copper importing country. Factory output, investment and retail sales all grew faster than expected in August, bolstering speculation of strengthening demand for the red metal.

On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, total positions in all copper contracts fell by 19,324 to 470,000 with trading volumes at 300,000 lots. Positions were closed by shorts while longs took no action due to the upcoming holiday between September 15-17. The Chinese market will be closed tomorrow and Friday for the mid-autumn festival.

Copper demand at the Multi Commodity Exchange (India) advanced by 0.19% for delivery in November and by 0.23% for delivery in February 2017 contracts. India ranks number 9 in the list of top 10 copper importers in 2015. The country signed an agreement with Chile last week to expand the India- Chile Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA), in which India has offered a concession to copper imported from Chile with a margin of preference of 50%. As copper is an important input for many sectors of India’s economy, the country expected the demand for this metal will soon grow beyond current domestic capabilities.

On the supply side, more mining firms in the Phillipine face potential mine suspensions under an environmental standard audit backed by President Rodrigo Duterte. The audit’s outcome will be issued on Thursday.

Copper bounced off the support at 2.09000 after more than 2 weeks of trading around this level. The metal has broken out of the descending trading channel and also moved past the MA20 at 2.1005, having broken through it from below. The RSI index finally surpassed the 50-line after spending a long period of time under this threshold, confirming the current uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2.1280, Take profit at 2.1400, Stop loss at 2.1100

Crude Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:46 pm
by CSFX.Support
Unexpected Buildup in U.S Distillate Inventories Offsets Crude Draw Down

U.S crude prices failed to register a rebound from one-week lows at below $45 per barrel even after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude oil supplies fell by 600,000 barrels last week. The number came in well below expectations of a 4 million-barrel increase in the week through September 9, 2016.

The surprise drawdown in U.S crude stockpiles was outweighed by the large buildup in inventories of petroleum products, which rose by 4.6 million barrels compared to one week ago. Analysts had only expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 43.80, take profit at 43.30, stop loss at 44.50

AUD/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2016 5:51 pm
by CSFX.Support
AUD/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 11:50 13/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 14/09/2016

Buy at 1.02600
Take profit at 1.03000
Stop loss at 1.02400

Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:07 am
by CSFX.Support
Daily Report on September 15, 2016



Global equities extended their rout in Asian trading hours on Thursday as a tumble in crude oil sapped investor appetite for risky assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.5%, prolonging the retreat to a sixth consecutive day, and marking the longest losing streak in four months. Japan’s Topix index also posted losses, sliding for a seventh day.



Data by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday reported a rise in the number of people leaving the labor force, which helped reduce the unemployment rate to the lowest level since September 2013. Australia’s jobless rate fell to the lowest in almost three years in August, coming in at 5.6% from 5.7% in July. Fewer people sought work, dampening the participation rate lower to 64.7% from 64.9%. Specifically, in contrast to economists’ forecast of a 15,000 gain in the number of people employed, employment actually dropped significantly, with the number of people employed falling by 3,900 from July.



Elsewhere, Statistics New Zealand announced that the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product increased by only 0.9 percent from the previous three months, missing the 1.1 percent expansion forecast by economists. The New Zealand Dollar was down 0.2 percent after the report.



Today, investor attention will be on the two central bank meetings at the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. The BOE’s assessment of how the economy has performed since its last gathering on Aug. 4 will be in the spotlight. The central bank is forecast to maintain an unchanged policy, after easing rates last month, after data released recently , indicated that projections for a sharp slowdown in Britain's economy after June's Brexit vote, could be overestimating the potential damage.



Technicals

CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY is falling further, having already lost more than 300 pips (3.6%) from the highs around 80.300. The downtrend does show signs of weakening with shorter bodies in the recent candles. However, the two MAs placed above the price action, continue to fuel the bearish momentum in the pair. The RSI is pointing downwards and heading down from the neutral threshold. CADJPY is expected to slide further.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 77.400, take profit at 77.000, stop loss at 77.620



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The slide in NZDUSD resumed after a period of correction yesterday. NZDUSD has fallen out of the upward slopping range and is struggling with the support at 0.72640. The lower boundary of the trading channel which has just been breached has now turned into a resistance which suppressed the pair’s attempt to break back into the channel. The pair may fall deeper to the zone of support at 0.72070 should the current support levels be broken as the bear is overshadowing the market and casting downward pressure on the pair.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.72600, take profit at 0.72070, stop loss at 0.73000



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD D1 Technical Chart

EURCAD has been registering a strong rally which helped the pair break out of the shrinking trading range formed during the April-August period. After a sharp increase, bulls seem to be getting weaker. As can be seen in the stochastic chart, the +DI line is heading downwards. Still, the ADX index is soaring higher, combined with a rising RSI, suggesting further advances.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.48600, take profit at 1.49260, stop loss at 1.47785



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has been restrained below the MA20 for a while, and is forming lower highs after failed attempts to break through this flexible resistance. The %K line and %D line on the stochastic chart are pointing down towards the oversold area, indicating a market in favor of the bears. Nonetheless, as the support at 18.765 is within sight, the current decline may be limited.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 18.875, take profit at 18.765, stop loss at 19.000



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude pulled back to above 46.00 from nearly two-week lows at 45.69. The rebound came in as a result of an oversold market. Recent up candles with short bodies suggest that the slump is expected to resume soon as sellers are overwhelming. The two MA's are placed above the price action and the price has not been able to cross over the MA's despite some recent attempts to do so. Key support at 45.30 is anticipated to be retested.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 46.10, take profit at 45.30, stop loss at 46.50



FTSE



Fig: FSTE H4 Technical Chart

The FTSE has hit the low at 6660.00 three times in the last three days but failed to break this major technical level on every attempt. Lower highs are being formed on the stochastic chart, indicating an underlying bear that is gaining strength. Any uptrend at this moment seems to be limited as the downward pressure is coming from both MAs placed above the price action as well as the upper boundary of the downward sloping trading range, that the prices are currently trading within.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 6660.00, take profit at 6610.70, stop loss at 6720.00

Uncertain Acquisition Deal Clouds Oracle’s Future Outlook– S

PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2016 2:01 pm
by CSFX.Support
Image
Oracle Corporation is scheduled to release its first-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2017 after the market closes on Thursday. The company is expected to report an EPS of 58 cents per share on adjusted earnings and revenues of $ 8.7 billion, compared to $8.5 billion last year.

Oracle has been on a path of progress towards transitioning to cloud based products and services. The company is focusing on a deal to acquire San Mateo- based software company NetSuite at the price of $9.3 billion. The acquisition is needed for Oracle to bolster sales of cloud-based tools to compensate for declining traditional hardware and software license revenues.

Oracle has reported five straight quarters of declining sales and is being left behind in the competition with cloud software vendors such as Salesforce.com and Workday.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 40.20, Take profit at 40.00, Stop loss at 40.50