[phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /inc_viewtopic.php on line 1494: Undefined variable: sMetaDescription
Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX
Page 3 of 80

EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:06 am
by CSFX.Support
EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX


From GMT 10:15 06/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 06/09/2016

Buy at 1.09315
Take profit at 1.09450
Stop loss at 1.09200

Gold Signal by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:35 pm
by CSFX.Support
Go Longs on Gold as Fed May Need To Stand Pat on Rates This September

Gold retested over one-week high at 1342.11 after a couple of data released on Tuesday that were not only far beyond earlier expectations but also completely dislodged any thought of a U.S economy that is “healthy enough” to withstand a rate hike as soon as later this month.

Report from the Institute for Supply Management showed that America’s service industries expanded in August at the weakest pace in six years. The ISM non-manufacturing index nose-dived to the lowest since February 2010 to 51.4, from 55.5 in July, while economists forecast the figure to come out at 55.4.

In a separate report, the Federal Reserve’s labor-market conditions index also swung back into negative territory last month after a positive reading in July, marking the seventh negative reading in the past eight months. The Fed’s gauge, which combines 19 labor market indicators, fell to minus 0.7 in August from 1.3 in one month earlier.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1340.50, Stop loss at 1333.00, Take profit at 1345.90

Copper Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:36 pm
by CSFX.Support
Copper Picks Up On Signs of Rising Demand – Traders Advised To Be Cautious As Market May Not Easily Re-Balance

Copper opened Tuesday’s trading session with a small gap down but quickly covered the gap to extend bullish momentum to a second consecutive trading day despite swelling inventories, as demand is showing signs of pick-up while cross currents in supply reduced pressure cast by worries over a market surplus.

Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose by 10,025 tons to 328,525 tons, causing stocks of copper held at LME approved warehouses to rise by more than 60 percent since Aug. 11. However, stocks held by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 152,404 tons as of September 2, down eight percent compared to the previous week.

The decline in SHFE may be the result of a marginal rise in demand in Europe and Asia after the summer vacation has ended. “Feedback from fabricators onshore points to a pick-up in orders from the construction sector in recent weeks”, said Standard Chartered.

Elsewhere, striking workers at Codelco’s small Salvador mine (producing 49,000 tons per year) and Anglo American’s Los Bronces mine (producing 437,800 tons per year) following failed wage negotiations in Chile – the world’s top copper producing nation – could cause production to fall further in the coming months.

Meanwhile, also on the supply side, Vedanta – India’s second largest copper producer with current output of 400,000 tons a year – is harboring the ambition to dethrone its rival Hindalco (500,000 tons) from first place in terms of output. Vedanta is reported to be restarting a cooper mine on Tasmania’s west coast in 2017, three years after the mine’s operations were suspended due to the death of two workers in 2014 and another in 2013. The mine is estimated to possess 200 million tons of reserves with an annual output of 100,000 tons

Previously, CEO of Vedanta’s Copper business R Ramnath stated that the conglomerate is planning to invest up to Rs. 3,000 crore ($450 million) in its Indian copper operations to double the capacity to 800,000 tons by 2019, making the firm India’s largest producer of the metal.

In a recent meeting with the government, India’s top copper producers — Hindalco, Vedanta and Hindustan Copper — have demanded that import duty on finished copper products be raised to 7.5% from 5% now as the country’s imports are growing at an alarming rate of over 20% for the last five years. These domestic producers are afraid that copper from Asean countries and Japan which is benefitting from export incentives could take over their market share that is about 80% at around 1 million tons a year in total.

Copper has been trading sideways in a thin range between 2.0900 and 2.0695 for nearly two weeks, after stabilizing post the sharp down move between mid/late July and August 24. The metal continues to remain in the downward sloping trading channel. Bears currently seem exhausted after having continuously pushed prices lower and held the market near oversold zone. Some bullish interest has come back into the market at the lows, but bulls are facing strong resistance at 2.0900. Bears are expected to get back into the market, after a period of short-covering inspired bounce-backs, and may push copper prices back down again.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2.0900, take profit at 2.0680, Stop loss at 2.1140

Daily Report on September 07, 2016 by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 6:23 am
by CSFX.Support
Image
Daily Report on September 07, 2016



Asian shares rose to one-year highs on Wednesday, carrying forward the bullish momentum from the US equity markets after Wall Street had finished yesterday’s session in the green. A spate of weaker-than-anticipated data released on Tuesday has nudged investors to bet against any U.S rate hike this month and created some doubts over an interest rate increase by the end of 2016.

The Federal Reserve was handed some reasons to delay increasing rates after the Institute for Supply Management published its non-manufacturing PMI for August. The August PMI fell to 51.4. The result was far short of expectations, marking the largest one-month drop since November 2008 and the lowest PMI reading since February 2010. The Fed’s labor-market conditions index also swung back into negative territory last month after a positive reading in July, slipping to -0.7 from 1.3 one month earlier.

In response, the U.S dollar fell sharply against most of its peers. The Japanese Yen strengthened on the back of a softening greenback and was also bolstered further by a reported split between Bank of Japan officials ahead of the BOJ meeting on September 20-21. According to a report in the Sankei newspaper, BOJ policymakers are currently divided into three groups. One supports negative interest rates, another advocates more government bond purchases, while the third group opposes further stimulus.

The Australian dollar edged down 0.1 percent to $0.7681 after rising more than 1 percent on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady at 1.5 percent. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter decelerated to 0.5%, indicating a cooling off in growth compared to the January-March period.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

GBPUSD broke above the ascending trading channel that has formed since early August, after a steep up move from the key support level at 1.33000. The market has pulled back for some consolidation after bulls pushed the prices into overbought territory. However the upper boundary of the trading recent trading channel is now acting as support after the breakout from the channel, and has kept the market from falling back into the price range. This support zone is expected to push the price higher from the current levels

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.34400, Take profit at 1.34800, Stop loss at 1.34000.



EURCHF



Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical Chart

EURCHF has breached below the 50.0% retracement at 1.09090 after decisively dropping from the 61.8% level at 1.09774. A brief correction was seen yesterday but weak bulls failed to retain the bullish momentum and had to reverse lower after coming up against the short-term MA. The MA20 has just converged with the MA50 from above, signaling more declines for the pair.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.09000, Take profit at 1.08800, Stop loss at 1.09230



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has been on a precipitous down move which helped the pair easily move past both the long-term and short-term MAs. In general, the U.S dollar has been trading in a shrinking range against the JPY and is currently moving towards the lower boundary of the trading range. As the market has entered the oversold zone, we may witness a period of consolidation moves. More declines in USDJPY are expected since two MAs placed above the price action are casting downward pressure on the price.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 101.300, Take profit at 100.850, Stop loss at 101.700



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Having surged more than 9.5 percent from two-month lows at 18.371 created on August 29, the grey metal retreated after the market entered a state of overblown volatility. Nonetheless, silver is forecast to extend the up wave as the two moving averages placed below the price action are exerting upward pressure which could send the price higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 20.100, Take profit at 20.300, Stop loss at 19.910



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI crude prices are continuously forming lower highs and higher lows causing the commodity to move in a narrowing range. The market has failed to define a clear direction for itself and reversed regularly every time it hits the upper or lower trend lines that have marked the recent trading range, and no clear breakout or resolution of the trend has been observed. At the moment, crude prices are moving towards the 23.6% retracement at 45.55 and anticipated to reverse lower below this resistance.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 45.55, Take profit at 44.50, Stop loss at 46.00



SP500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

The SP500 has recorded a crossover by the MA20 through the MA50 from below, suggesting further up moves on the index after the price action broke above the 2184.00 resistance. RSI (14) that has soared to 59.74 is also supportive for the prices to retest the recent high at 2193.00 reached on August 15.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2186.00, Take profit at 2193.00, Stop loss at 2177.50

USD/CHF Signal by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:57 am
by CSFX.Support
USD/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 11:00 07/09/2016

Till GMT 21:00 07/09/2016

Sell at 0.96850

Take profit at 0.96400

Stop loss at 0.97650

GBPAUD Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:57 pm
by CSFX.Support
Comfortable Aussie Pressuring Wobbly Sterling – Selling GBPAUD Suggested

The GBP and the AUD both trimmed their streak of gains versus the greenback on Wednesday. The Sterling has witnessed relatively larger declines after a report showed that U.K manufacturing output slumped at the fastest pace in a year.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicated a sharp month-on-month contraction in the UK manufacturing sector in July, with activity falling by 0.9%, as factories restricted production in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote. Prior to today’s data, economists had forecast a 0.3 per cent decline in manufacturing production for July, on a month on month basis

Among 13 manufacturing sub-sectors, only six recorded an output increase. Transport equipment manufacturers led the gainers with a 5.7% rate of growth(monthly basis), while the largest fall was recorded in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, which decreased by 5.3%.

The report also confirmed overall industrial production output rose 0.1% on a monthly basis in July, which defied expectations for a contraction, as the sharp decline in the manufacturing was offset by growth in the other three sectors, especially mining and quarrying with an increase of 4.7%.

Today’s report is among the first official statistics offering a broad-based view of the economy for a full month after the Brexit vote. While recent data have delivered the message that the economy has so far held up better than expected, this negative report comes at a time when hopes were building, that a softening GBP (post Brexit) would support manufacturers by making British goods more attractive to overseas buyers.

Investors are now turning their attention to Prime Minister Theresa May, who is preparing to begin negotiations with European Union leaders over the terms of the U.K.’s exit from the trading bloc. Theresa May is determined to begin EU exit negotiations early in 2017 in spite of warnings from a senior Tory MP that she should wait until French and German elections are concluded.

On the other hand, the Australian dollar was not hit much versus sterling following the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ report that the rate of GDP growth in the second quarter decelerated to 0.5%. The Aussie has been trading quite comfortable since the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to stand pat on interest rates on Tuesday.

GBPAUD had to retreat from the resistance at 1.76700 as the pair could not stand the double trouble caused by the descending trend line connecting the lower highs from the period between May 26 to date, and the MA50, which is placed above the price action. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the %K line is falling rapidly ahead of the %D line, after having crossed it recently from above, with a large distance between two lines. The currency pair is expected to decline further.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.73800, Take profit at 1.71000, Stop loss at 1.76700

USDCAD Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:47 pm
by CSFX.Support
Image

USDCAD Pares Losses After Weak Ivey PMI Data

USDCAD reversed into an uptrend after the Bank of Canada decided to maintain the Overnight Rate on hold at 0.50% but stated that second-quarter gross domestic product was affected by a drop in exports that was “larger and more broad-based than expected.”

Although in general, the central bank delivered an optimistic attitude towards its economy, analysts claimed that weak exports would demand the BOC unleash more monetary easing to drive stronger growth.

The Loonie today was also hit by the Canadian Ivey PMI. The indicator released by the Richard Ivey School of Business, decreased from 57.0 points to 52.3 points, missing consensus estimate of 55.5 and signaling an aggressively decelerated expansion.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.29000, Take profit at 1.29250, Stop loss at 1.28840

Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:45 am
by CSFX.Support
Image

Daily Report on September 08, 2016



Crude prices extended their winning streak in early trading on Thursday after data from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday indicated that U.S crude stocks unexpectedly dropped by 12.1 million barrels last week. Oil hit one-week highs as the report was starkly contrasting with expectations of an increase of 200,000 barrels. Official data from the U.S government will be out later today. Should the data from the EIA confirm the drawdown, it will be the largest weekly decline since April 1985.

Also on Wednesday, the U.S Labor Department published its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, which pointed to tightening conditions in the labour market. U.S. job openings were reported to have surged to a record high in July. However, employers were having difficulty in filling vacancies with appropriately qualified workers.

The number for worker demand increased by 228,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.9 million – the highest level since the survey was started. In theory, this situation could spur faster wage growth. But according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book report, “expectations of wage growth for the coming months were modest” as a strong labor market failed to create much upward pressure on wages and prices.

Data from Japan reported on Thursday that the Japanese economy grew by 0.7% in the second quarter compared with the same quarter last year. The reading for the annualized growth rate was revised upwards, from a preliminary reading of a 0.2% expansion. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the world’s third biggest economy expanded by 0.2%, largely due to upbeat capital expenditure and inventories, which outpaced the decline in domestic and overseas demand caused by a strong yen.

Official data from the Customs General Administration of China reported that the country’s trade surplus in August was slightly below July’s $52.31 billion at $52.05 billion and missed estimates for a reading of $58 billion. Weakening exports continued to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy. Exports slid by 2.8 percent on a year-on-year basis, following July's 4.4 percent drop.

Investors are shifting their attention to the meeting of the European Central Bank where all main rates are expected to be left unchanged. President Mario Draghi will update growth and inflation projections in the Press Conference due after the rate decision.



Technicals

NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has broken above the ascending channel but has currently been trading sideways below the 50.0% retracement at 0.74709. The pair is currently locked between the upwards sloping trendline, marking the boundary of the ascending channel, which is acting as a support and the resistance at the 50.0% Fibonacci level. A breakout is expected as the trading range is becoming narrower. The ADX is still pointing upwards, suggesting a continual uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.74750, Take profit at 0.75200, Stop loss at 0.74400



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY has been moving sideways within the price range from 78.750 to 79.175. The pair is currently in a phase of consolidation, after a sharp decline from a more than one month high at 80.298. The pair is under the downward pressure heaped by the two MAs placed above the price action. The short term MA20 has been an especially strong level of resistance so far, and has forced the price to reverse lower every time CADJPY has hit this resistance. Further declines are expected.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 78.750, Take profit at 78.500, Stop loss at 79.200



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD retreated after failing to break back above the support trendline underlying the price action created since August 18. After having violated the uptrend on Monday, the pair bounced back from the support at 1.28300 but could not cross back over the support trendline at around 1.29126, and was further pressured by the MA20 hovering above the price action. The market has remained in bearish territory but the near-term support at 1.28570 should be monitored carefully.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.28570, Take profit at 1.28300, Stop loss at 1.29050



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver resumed the uptrend after retreating from the high at 20.100. While the %K line reversed higher to penetrate the %D line from below, RSI remains in the bullish zone, indicating an overwhelming bull. With two MAs placed below the price action, silver is on course to soar higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 19.900, Take profit at 20.100, Stop loss at 19.700



COPPER



Fig: Copper H4 Technical Chart

Copper has breached the solid resistance at 2.0900 which restrained the metal for two weeks until yesterday. The RSI index has surged above the 50 line, and the MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from below, preparing the stage for further advances in copper. Nonetheless, the up-move could be limited as prices are moving in an upward sloping channel and the upper boundary of the channel is foreseen to be a firm handle, where prices could be contained.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2.1050, Take profit at 2.1170, Stop loss at 2.0900



NASDAQ



Fig: NASDAQ100 H4 Technical Chart

The Nasdaq failed to surpass major resistance at 4837.00, yet again, yesterday. Bulls are overshadowing the market but also taking cautious steps when facing this key level. The two MAs placed below the price action, are continuously fueling bullish momentum in the index but a chance for a break out is still even. Any considerable force that could help the index one way or the other, would need to come from the fundamental side. Therefore traders should be patient ahead of the crude oil inventory data due later today.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 4837.00, Take profit at 4811.50, Stop loss at 4851.50

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:50 am
by CSFX.Support
AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 11:15 08/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 08/09/2016

Sell at 0.99525
Take profit at 0.99000
Stop loss at 0.99970

USDZAR Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:10 pm
by CSFX.Support
Image

Blockbuster Economic Dominates Political Uncertainty – USDZAR Set To Crash

USDZAR continued to drop on Thursday after a sole winning session in the month-to-date on Wednesday. News about a rebound in South Africa’s economy came at the same time as weaker-than-anticipated economic data from the the U.S. Prospects of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September worsened significantly after the weaker than expected data reading, which helped boost demand for higher-yielding emerging-market assets and in particular, helped power the Rand to rally nearly 6% in September against the background of political uncertainty.

South Africa reaped the benefits of a weak rand in the second quarter, posting an 18.5% surge in exports and a 5.1% decline in imports. The country managed to avoid a recession in the April-June period, as mining and factory output rebounded. A report from the national statistics agency on Tuesday reported that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 3.3 percent on-year, recovering from a 1.2% contraction in the first quarter.

Manufacturing, which accounts for the largest share in South Africa’s GDP at 13%, reported growth of 8.1% compared with the previous quarter, reaching the highest rate of quarterly growth in three years. Meanwhile, mining output recovered from an 18.1% decline in the first quarter to increase by 11.8% in the three months through June.

Given the positive figures released a day earlier, The South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago stated on Wednesday that “the Monetary Policy Committee will be able to revise upwards its annual economic performance estimates at the September meeting”. South Africa’s Central Bank is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on September 22.

The Rand added to its recent gains earlier today after an unexpected rise in Chinese imports. China’s imports rose for the first time in nearly two years in August, suggesting a pick-up in domestic demand and buoying commodity-linked currencies such as the Rand, as China is one of the biggest markets for all commodity producing countries(if not the biggest market).

However, data from Statistics South Africa indicated that manufacturing output expanded only by 0.4% year-on-year in July, well below expectations of 3% advance after rising by a revised 4.7% in June. Factory production was also down 1.5% on a monthly basis last month. The results of the nation’s Q3 business confidence survey on Friday will round up the week for the Rand. Forecasts point to a dip from a reading of 32 points to 30.

The currency has recently been under pressure due to political uncertainty after its respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was summoned by a special unit of the police, in relation to an investigation over the activities of a surveillance unit set up during his time as head of South Africa’s tax agency. Gordhan has not been arrested but his case has put the country in danger of a ratings downgrade to junk level by rating agencies, as he is widely considered to be a progressive policy maker.

USDZAR penetrated both the short-term and long-term Mas from above, heading back towards the nearly one-year low at 13.19334 after a sharp spike in the second half of August. Obviously bears have taken over the market. The –DI line has already crossed over the +DI from above while the RSI has retreated to 32.14 from the high of 42.52 reached during the recent rally. A short correction yesterday has balanced the market a little and prevented a move into the oversold territory. The RSI is indicating that there is room for the pair to fall further.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 13.88000, Take profit at 13.64845, Stop loss at 14.08500