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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
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Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2013 6:32 am
by katetrades
USD/CAD: Trading the Ivey PMI Release (May 6, 2013)

After last week’s strong selloff, USD/CAD is currently stalling around the 1.0075 resistance turned support level. This is in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour time frame.

During the previous release, the Ivey PMI came in much stronger than expected at 61.6. For the month of April, the Ivey PMI is projected to dip to 58.3, reflecting a slight slowdown in the manufacturing industry.

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A weaker than expected reading could trigger a bounce from USD/CAD’s current levels back above 1.0100 while another strong reading might push USD/CAD to the next support level near 1.0020. Take not that this is in line with a former resistance area and is the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Stochastic is pointing down, indicating a potential move south, but the oscillator could turn as USD/CAD finds support at any of the Fib levels. A stop below parity with a target around 1.0100 to 1.0150 would yield a decent reward-to-risk ratio.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Tue May 07, 2013 7:43 am
by katetrades
AUD/USD: RBA Interest Rate Cut Setup (May 7, 2013)

The RBA just cut interest rates by 25 basis points from 3.00% to 2.75% earlier in today’s Asian session. This pushed AUD/USD below the support level around 1.0230 to a low of 1.0178 right after the statement.

In past rate decisions where the RBA cut interest rates, the pair usually makes a strong break to the downside then makes a small retracement prior to the European session. The pair could still pull up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level before heading any lower in the later trading sessions.

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A good entry point could be the 1.0230 mark, which is in line with the 38.2% Fib and the former support level. Stochastic is already heading lower on the 15-minute chart though, which suggests a further move down. After all, European and American traders have yet to react to the surprise rate cut earlier today.

A stop above the highest Fib level or at 1.0300 with a target of 100 pips or more would yield a good reward-to-risk ratio for a day trade.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

EUR/USD Descending Triangle (May 8, 2013)

PostPosted: Wed May 08, 2013 7:49 am
by katetrades
EUR/USD is slowly edging closer and closer to the 1.3000 major psychological support again as the pair has formed lower highs on its 1-hour chart. In fact, it has created a descending triangle pattern on the same time frame.

For now, there are no major reports due from the euro zone, which explains why the pair is currently stuck in a consolidation pattern. The lack of data could keep the pair inside the triangle, with some opportunities to scalp off the top or the bottom of the formation.

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Only the medium-tier German industrial production report is due from the region today and this report is projected to print a 0.1% decline, which is a disappointment compared to the previous 0.5% uptick. A weaker than expected reading could push EUR/USD to test the bottom of the descending triangle or even make a breakdown, depending on the actual result.

Stochastic, however, is suggesting a potential bounce back up as it is currently pointing north. Aim for the top of the triangle for a day trade or the previous highs around 1.3100 for a longer-term setup.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Thu May 09, 2013 6:57 am
by katetrades
NZD/USD: Break and Retest Scenario (May 9, 2013)

NZD/USD just broke below the .8500 major psychological support level recently, mostly because of the downturn in risk appetite. The recent speech by RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler also revealed that the central bank actually secretly intervened in the currency market last month after NZD/USD topped at around .8675.

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The RBNZ’s willingness to intervene could keep the Kiwi’s rallies at bay as traders might be more cautious about another potential intervention. Price did pull up to the 61.8% Fib, which is just below the former support at .8500 when New Zealand printed a strong employment report.

On the 1-hour time frame, stochastic has already reached the overbought region, showing that a selloff could follow soon. If the support turned resistance area continues to hold, NZD/USD could test its former lows just below the .8400 handle.

A stop above the .8500 level and a target at .8400 yields a good reward-to-risk ratio for a day trade.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2013 4:56 am
by katetrades
AUD/USD Breaks Key 1.0200 Support (May 10, 2013)

After several failed attempts in the past few months, AUD/USD finally made a convincing break below the 1.0200 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading.

The recent RBA interest rate cut may have been one of the major factors driving the selloff, although the pair did draw a bit of support from strong Australian jobs data released this week. However, the rally didn’t last and AUD/USD soon found itself below 1.0200 and even 1.0100 in today’s Asian session.

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This could be a signal that a longer-term downtrend is set to take place for AUD/USD. Remember that the previous range was roughly 400 pips in height as the pair found resistance at 1.0600 and support at 1.0200 in the past. This suggests that the breakdown could be of the same height, taking the pair below parity later on.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Mon May 13, 2013 6:29 am
by katetrades
GBP/USD Rising Channel Still Intact (May 13, 2013)

GBP/USD had a strong selloff towards the end of the previous week when the U.S. Federal Reserve talked about their concrete plans to exit from their ongoing open-ended asset purchase program. However, the pair has found support at the bottom of the rising channel on the 4-hour time frame.

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This channel support could be a key area for the week, as it is in line with the 1.5350 minor psychological support level. A breakdown from this area would confirm the start of a downtrend for GBP/USD.

On the other hand, a bounce from this area, which could be triggered by a strong UK claimant count change release or upbeat remarks from BOE Governor King midweek, could push GBP/USD back to the top of the channel around 1.5600.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Tue May 14, 2013 9:14 am
by katetrades
NZD/USD Retracement to Former Support (May 14, 2013)

NZD/USD suffered a sharp selloff last week when RBNZ head Graeme Wheeler admitted intervening in the forex market. This was followed by the Fed’s release of their plans to exit monetary policy easing by gradually reducing their bond purchases, triggering a sharp dollar rally.

The drop has taken NZD/USD below the .8400 major psychological level, which has acted as strong support in the past. A potential retracement might still take place this week if New Zealand data provides enough support for the Kiwi.

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Earlier today, the New Zealand quarterly retail sales report came in slightly weaker than expected, with the headline figure posting a 0.5% increase instead of the estimated 0.9% rise and the core figure showing a mere 0.6% uptick, lower than the previous 1.2% increase.

If NZD/USD’s rally does have legs or if a major correction will take place, the pair could find resistance at the 38.2% Fib, which is in line with previous support level. A stop above the .8400 mark would yield a good reward-to-risk ratio if the target is around the previous lows near .8250.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

GBP/USD Trend Line Break and Retest (May 17, 2013)

PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 6:13 am
by katetrades
GBP/USD already broke below the rising trend line on the 4-hour time frame earlier this week, but it appears that the pair has found support around the 1.5200 major psychological level for now.

This was spurred by an upgrade in growth and inflation forecasts by the BOE, as well as stronger than expected jobs data from the United Kingdom. The economy’s jobless rate fell from 7.9% to 7.8% in April, as there were fewer individuals filing for unemployment claims in the month.

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Weak U.S. data, namely inflation reports and manufacturing indices, also contributed to GBP/USD’s recent rally. However, the climb could last only until the Fibonacci retracement levels. Note that the 1.5400 major psychological resistance is between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

The broken trend line is also within this range, which suggests that it could act as strong resistance moving forward. Stochastic has yet to reach the overbought region so wait for a crossover and a move down before shorting.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Re: Daily Technical Analysis by Kate Curtis from Trader's Wa

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 6:55 am
by katetrades
AUD/USD Short-Term Falling Trend Line (May 20, 2013)

Ever since AUD/USD breached the 1.0200 major psychological level, it has been on a very strong selloff, even breaking below parity. The trend remains very bearish for the pair and there could be shallow retracements for the week.

On the 1-hour time frame, there’s a falling trend line connecting the pair’s recent highs. Using the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is close to the .9800 major psychological level. This level has acted as support last week and could act as resistance from now on.

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Stochastic is still moving up, which suggests that the pair could still pull up to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is closer to the falling trend line. Set your stops above this area or the .9850 minor resistance if you’re shorting.

The only major release from Australia this week is the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. The U.S. dollar could continue to draw support from talks that the Fed is already mapping out plans to exit its bond purchases.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

USD/CAD Short-Term Rising Trend Line (May 21, 2013)

PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 7:11 am
by katetrades
The dollar seems to have retreated from its rallies at the start of this week, as traders may have booked profits off key inflection points for the major pairs. USD/CAD, in particular, has found resistance at the 1.0300 major psychological level.

From there, the pair has pulled back to the rising trend line on the 1-hour time frame. Stochastic, however, is making its way out of the oversold region. This suggests that the pair’s rallies could resume soon if sentiment for the dollar remains bullish.

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The pair could test its former highs around the 1.0300 area and even make a strong break to the upside later on this week, depending on the outcome of the FOMC meeting minutes release and Fed head Bernanke’s testimony. Indications that the Fed is really considering reducing its bond purchases as early as June could trigger another strong dollar rally.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way