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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Signals by Capital Street FX
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 7:49 pm
by CSFX.Support
OPEC Output Report Dilutes Prospects of A Production Deal – Powerful Opportunity For Sellers

WTI crude oil plunged on Wednesday, extending losses after hitting six month highs at around $51.58 per barrel recorded on Monday. Crude prices plummeted after the OPEC published its production data for September. On top of the fact that the cartel’s oil output last month reached eight-year highs, the report sapped investor confidence in a potential production cut/freeze deal by reporting data that conflicts with information provided by individual member countries.

While some members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Venezuela said they pumped more oil last month than what has been reported, Nigeria said its production was lower and Iran declined to report its numbers. Markets are showing concerns over the possibility of any real agreement on a production ceiling, and the details of the specific quota for each member, which will be discussed next month.

The question is how can OPEC reach a consensus on how much each country should pump if the cartel cannot accurately estimate the production of each member?

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 49.95, take profit at 49.10, stop loss at 50.20

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:02 pm
by CSFX.Support
Gold Moves Indecisively Ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes – Will 1250.00 Threshold Be Broken?

Gold rose in the early part of the Asian trading session in the wake of a retreating U.S dollar, but has been edging lower in early European trading hours as the greenback claimed back its strength ahead of the release of the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later today.

The precious metal has lost about 10% compared to the 28 month peak level of $1375.00 per ounce recorded in early July this year. Particularly, since September 28th, gold has dropped more than 6.7% amid signs of improving U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Fed officials that have fueled expectations that the U.S Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the year end.

Minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are scheduled to be released at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. At the last meting, policy makers left the federal funds rate target unchanged and maintained the target range of 0.25% to 0.5%. However, 3 of the 10 voting members of the FOMC including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren had dissented the decision, and voted for a rate increase instead.

Rosengren has been considered as being dovish for a long time, as he has supported ultra-low rates in order to push down unemployment. With the number of new jobs added remaining steady month after month, and the jobless rate at or below 5 percent so far this year, Rosengren urged his colleagues to tighten policy to avoid overheating the labor market and triggering inflation.

The minutes are expected to provide markets with more details about the division within Fed officials. A hawkish leaning within the Fed, may cement the likelihood of a hike in December and consequently push up the U.S dollar. Traders have priced in only an 8.3% probability that the Fed will raise rates at its November meeting, but the chance of such a move by mid-December has risen to nearly 70%, according to the CME’s Fed Watch Tool.

The yellow metal is highly sensitive to U.S. interest rates. Not only will a strengthening greenback reduce gold’s appeal as it makes the dollar-denominated asset more expensive for investors holding other currencies, but higher yields from interest-bearing assets such as bonds will also dampen the metal’s competitiveness.

As stated by the Associated Chambers of Commerce of India, the country’s gold imports declined by 58.96% to 270 tons in the period January to September 2016, from 658 tons that were imported during the same period last year. According to the research report, gold imports declined partly due to a prolonged strike by jewelers in March and April to demand a roll back of the 1% excise duty that was imposed on gold and silver jewelry.

Another reason for the downturn in Indian gold imports is the continuation of the 10% customs duty on import of gold bars, which has spurred smuggling of gold, leading to a decline in official imports and reported numbers.

GOLD technical analysis



Gold has been trading sideways for five trading days in a row above the 38.2% retracement level at around 1250.00. With the cautiousness on the fundamental side, and the fact that the gold market has entered the oversold zone, sellers have restrained the downward push and are simply waiting it out. If the minutes are not in favor of the precious metal, gold can breach the 38.2% level and collapse to as low as the 50.0% level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1249.50, Stop loss at 1265.00, Take profit at 1235.00

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:13 am
by CSFX.Support
Image
Daily Report on October 13, 2016

Asian shares slumped for the fifth trading session in a row, stumbling to three-week lows after an unexpected decline in Chinese exports raised fresh concerns about the health of the world’s second biggest economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1% to the lowest since mid-September. Other Asian stock indices such as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 also fell today.

According to the General Administration Customs - China, the country’s exports diminished by 10% in September from a year earlier while imports also witnessed a decline of 1.9% after a pickup in August. Worse-than-expected data left China with a trade surplus of $41.99 billion for the month – a level that missed the forecast for a surplus of $53.1 billion.

Minutes of the U.S. central bank’s September meeting, released on Wednesday reinforced the case for tighter monetary policy before the end of the year.

Against the background of weak Chinese reports suggesting tepid domestic and foreign demand, increasing expectations of a U.S. interest-rate hike and uncertainties spurred by Britain’s efforts to leave the European Union, the Japanese Yen has been rising in a knee-jerk reaction. A fall in equities gave a lift to the yen – one of the safe haven currencies which investors seek in times of market stress.

Oil extended losses following the report by the American Petroleum Institute that U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels to 470.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7. This would be the first rise in oil stocks following five straight weeks of declines. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to publish official inventory data later on Thursday.



Technical

AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical chart

The Aussie is following a steady downtrend that has pushed AUDUSD to break below the 38.2% retracement level at 0.75255. The currency pair pulled back yesterday after encountering the resistance zone between two moving averages. These two MAs are expected to cast downward pressure on the pair for the near future and may send AUDUSD to as low as the 50.0% level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.75000, Take profit at 0.74550, Stop loss at 0.75300



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD D4 Technical chart

NZDUSD dropped below the 38.2% level on Monday and continues to head southwards through this week. After some correction yesterday, the Kiwi resumed the down moves today and is anticipated to find support at around 0.69600. The RSI index has neared the oversold zone and the ADX has soared as high as 51.83. Therefore after hitting this level, a pullback could come about.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.70400, Take profit at 0.69600, Stop loss at 0.71000.



EURJPY



Fig: EURJPY H4 Technical chart

As can be seen from the chart, EURJPY has re-entered the trading range between a lower boundary at 114.000 and the upper boundary at 116.000, where it had been trapped from late-August to mid-September. The pair is heading towards the support at 114.000 and may break through this level as the bearish signals are quite strong. The two MAs are very likely to converge and are placed above the price action, the RSI index is pointing downwards, and there is wide divergence between the %K line and the %D line in the stochastic charts. All of this combines to suggest a powerful downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 113.900, Take profit at 113.000, Stop loss at 114.500



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H1 Technical chart

As can be observed from the hourly chart, the gold market has received a signal suggesting a reversal into an up-move as the 20-period MA has penetrated the 50-period MA from below. With the RSI indicator surging above the 50 line yesterday and heading upwards to the overbought zone, the yellow metal can soar as high as 1265.00.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1260.00, Take profit at 1265.00, Stop loss at 1253.00



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H1 Technical chart

Sugar had to give up its strength after coming up against a couple of moving averages which are placed above the price action. The sugar market has been floating in bearish territory, as indicated by the RSI index that has inched down to as low as 44.36. The support at 22.50 can be where we take profit.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 22.90, Take profit at 22.50, Stop loss at 23.20



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical chart

The NASDAQ 100 index created a gap down at the market open on Wednesday. The index has fallen back into the trading range between 4840.00 and 4750.00 and might pay a visit to the lower boundary at 4750.00 as the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from above, indicating bears overshadowing the market.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4780.00, Take profit at 4750.00, Stop loss at 4800.00

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 10:18 am
by CSFX.Support
EUR/GBP signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:30 13/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 13/10/2016

Buy at 0.90500
Take profit at 0.91300
Stop loss at 0.90000

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:55 pm
by CSFX.Support
Cost Cutting Helps CSX Third-Quarter Results beat Expectations – Sells Suggested

Shares of CSX Corporation rose more than 3% in after hours trading on Wednesday after the transportation services company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings after the closing bell.

CSX’s third-quarter earnings fell to $455 million, or 48 cents a share, from $507 million, or 52 cents a share, a year earlier. Net profit for the railroad operator was hurt by the drop in revenue and freight volumes. During the three-month period through September, CSX’s revenue shrank 8% to $2.71 billion compared to the same quarter one year ago. Still, the results came in above market expectations of 45 cents EPS, on revenue of $2.69 billion.

The U.S’s third largest railroad transportation company observed a total decline of 8% in shipping volume across most of its goods categories including metals, equipment business and coal. Among decliners, coal shipments posted the worst performance, slipping 21% as a result of oversupply in the world market and a stronger U.S. dollar that made U.S. exports more expensive overseas.

Additionally, plunging fuel prices and increasing use of natural gas that is being encouraged by the government are putting pressure on coal demand and coal shipments. As natural gas produces less carbon dioxide than coal when burned, the U.S government has planned to get off coal used by power plants, to reduce emissions.

However, the Florida-based company’s third quarter’s data still bettered forecasts thanks to strong cost performance and productivity measures. The bottom line was helped by 6.8% cut in expenses, driven by $112 million of efficiency gains and $53 million of volume-related cost reductions.


Shares of CSX Corp have been on a decline after reaching 15-month highs at around 31.28. In general, the shares are trading above the 20-day and 50-day MAs and the market is still in favor of buyers, as indicated by the RSI chart. Share prices are expected to reverse today, partly due to fundamental factors, but also because the price action has neared the short-term DMA20.

CSX Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 31.00, Take profit at 30.50, Stop loss at 30.00

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Oct 13, 2016 6:12 pm
by CSFX.Support
Natural Gas Screams to Record Highs On Smaller-than-expected Rise in U.S. Stocks– Buy Call Options

Natural gas prices turned sharply higher Thursday following a two-day slide. The commodity hit the highest since December 2014 at $3.347 per million British thermal units after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas supplies rose 79 billion cubic feet for the week ending Oct.7th.

The increase in stocks was below analyst estimates that had called for a rise of 87 billion cubic feet.

According to the report, total stocks now stand at 3.759 trillion cubic feet, up 56 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 192 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.350, Take profit at 3.380, Stop loss at 3.320

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:42 pm
by CSFX.Support
NZD/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:05 14/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 14/10/2016

Sell at 0.70900
Take profit at 0.70400
Stop loss at 0.71300

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:48 pm
by CSFX.Support
Copper Plunges As Demand Falls, Risk Of Supply Glut Rises – Short Positions Encouraged

Copper has been slumped for the most part of the week, collapsing nearly 4% after reaching intra-week high at $2.2018 per pound on Monday. The commodity market is forecast to witness more decline as it is going to confront with significant supply glut and dropping demand in the coming months.

Copper witnessed the biggest one-day loss on Thursday since June 07th, after the Chinese General Administration Customs reported worse-than-expected exports and imports data for September. According to the report, China’ exports diminished by 10% in September from a year earlier while imports also witnessed a decline of 1.9%, which spurred concerns over weak demand for goods both in China and many other parts of the world such as the U.S., Europe and much of Asia.

Demand for copper imports of China was also reported to decelerate last month to the lowest in more than a year. China’s imports of the red medal fell by 26 percent from a year ago to 340,000 tons in September, which is the lowest since at least August 2015. On a monthly basis, imports to the world’s leading copper consumer dropped by 2.9%.

On the supply side, commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs said that considering the rise of supply, copper prices would be under downward pressure over the next three to six months.

In a separate report by BMI Research, the research firm forecast Iran’s mining industry will resurge after years of Western sanctions. According to BMI, foreign investment will help accelerate Iran’s mining sector as the Middle-Eastern nation possesses vast underdeveloped reserves but is still looking for modernization and new technology.

Iran’s copper output is expected to outperform in the coming years and reach the growth rate of 13% each year top 500,000 tons by the end of the decade.


In a week, copper has breached through two important Fibonacci levels - the 38.2% and 50.0% , to fall as low as 2.1120. The price action also has also crossed below both the long-term DMA50 and short-term DMA20 from above. The market is under pressure from two MAs placed overhead, and the overwhelming strength of sellers in the market. Copper prices are approaching the 61.8% handle at 2.0860. The RSI is also heading towards bearish territory, providing further confirmation for the down-move.

Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 2.1120, Take profit at 2.0860, Stop loss at 2.1400

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 2:01 pm
by CSFX.Support
Image
Daily Report on October 14, 2016

Asian stocks bounced back on Friday, but were still heading for the biggest weekly decline in almost a month. Shares erased some losses from the start of this week, thanks to the rally in oil prices that boosted energy sector stocks, and stronger-than-expected Chinese inflation data which helped ease concerns about the health of world's second-biggest economy.

After triggering chaos in global stock markets by reporting a steep drop in exports and imports in data released yesterday, China once again set the tone for the markets, but in the opposite direction. Chinese producer prices unexpectedly rose in September for the first time in nearly five years, thanks to stronger commodity prices.

Meanwhile, China’s consumer inflation also beat expectations, accelerating more than expected to 1.9 percent in September compared to the same month last year. The price rise was mainly due to higher food prices. On a yearly basis, Chinese food prices added 3.2 percent in September, topping a 1.3 percent gain (year-on-year) in August.

Oil turned higher even though the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday reported that U.S. crude stocks rose for the first time in six weeks. Crude stockpiles in the U.S swelled by 4.9 million barrels in the week to Oct. 7th .Total inventories rose to 474 million barrels, but distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, dropped by 3.7 million barrels and gasoline fell by 1.9 million barrels.

Also in the U.S, filings for unemployment benefits were reported to be at a four-decade low over the past two weeks. According to the weekly report by the U.S Department of Labor, jobless claims were 246,000 in the week ended October 8th, remaining below 300,000 for 84 straight weeks and indicating a healthy labor market.



Technicals

EURCHF



Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical chart

EURCHF pulled back from two-week lows at 1.08687 on Thursday but failed to surpass the 50.0% retracement level at 1.09093. The currency pair crawled back to the downside as it is still under the downward pressure of the two moving averages placed above the price action. Down moves are being supported by indicators. As can be observed from indicator windows, while stochastic lines are pointing downwards, the RSI index has also retreated to as low as 38.42.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.08900, take profit at 1.08520, stop loss at 1.09100



EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical chart

EURUSD broke out of the recent trading range on Tuesday and fell below the 50.0% retracement at 1.10573 on the same day. The pair plummeted to as low as 1.09847 yesterday, before buyers stepped in and liberated it from the oversold zone. However, a brief correction was not enough to support the pair back above the 50.0% level again. In the event of a continual downtrend, the pair may find support at the 61.8% handle.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.10200, take profit at 1.09800, stop loss at 1.10600



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical chart

We have seen a strong rally in the Aussie that lifted the market from the 38.2 level to near the 23.6% level. Nonetheless, those rapid up moves also sent AUDUSD into the overbought territory and prompted bears to jump in and push the pair down back below the long-term MA50. The %K line has reversed lower to penetrate the %D line from north to south, but we may need to wait for a confirmation from the RSI index which has reached but not surpassed the 50 line yet.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.75650, take profit at 0.75250, stop loss at 0.76000



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical chart

Silver has been trading sideways to lower above the 50.0% Fibonacci level since the start of this week. The metal has consistently been pressurized by the short-term MA20 placed above the price action. However, bears have failed to make a breakout below the 50.0% retracement level at 17.416. With U.S data coming out later today, the silver market is anticipated to escape out of the thin trading range it has been in recently. Better-than-expected numbers may push silver to retest last-week's lows at 17.090

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 17.390, take profit at 17.090, stop loss at 17.500



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical chart

U.S crude prices have still remained within an overall uptrend, after having suffered losses earlier this week. Having bounced back from the lower band of the Bollinger range, the price action has moved towards the middle band and has just crossed over the middle band (which is also the 20-period MA20). WTI is expected to keep moving upwards since the market continues to enjoy bullish momentum, as indicated by the RSI chart. The upside may be contained by the 0.0% level which is very close to the upper band of the Bollinger range.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 50.85, take profit at 51.55, stop loss at 50.30



FTSE 100



Fig: FTSE 100 H4 Technical chart

U.K’s FTSE 100 index surged above 7000.00 again following a drop below this level yesterday. The index extended Thursday’s gains and looks set to trade above the short-term MA20 after crossing over the long-term MA 50 from below, on Thursday. As can be observed from the stochastic chart, the %K line is moving far ahead of the %D line, suggesting further upside moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 7020.00, take profit at 7075.00, stop loss at 6975.00

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:50 pm
by CSFX.Support
JP Morgan Chase Kickstarts Banking Earnings Season With Upbeat Data

Shares of JP Morgan Chase & Co rose to as high as $69.03 per share after the largest U.S bank by assets reported third-quarter results that beat market’s estimates.

JP Morgan announced a profit of $6.29 billion, or $1.58 a share for three-month period through September. Last quarter profit fell 7.6% compared to that in the same period of 2015 as the bank continues to operate in a low-interest-rate environment. However, the readings still crushed expectations of earnings of $1.39 a share.

The bank’s revenue registered at $25.51 billion, also topping analysts’ forecast of $24 billion.

JPMorgan was the first big U.S. bank to report third-quarter earnings and its better-than-expected performance gave Wall Street certain confidence.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 68.10, take profit at 68.50, stop loss at 67.70

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