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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Signals by Capital Street FX
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:48 pm
by CSFX.Support
SP500 Falls After Non-Farm Report as December Rate Hike Remains On Course

SP500 index tumbled on Friday after the September jobs data proved that the U.S economy is strong enough for a rate hike by the end of this year, even though the results were not as good as expected.

According the Labor Department, there were 156,000 jobs added in September, with unemployment rate rising to 5% from 4.9% as more Americans entered the labour market looking for work.

Commenting on the non-farm report, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said that the economy is at full employment and therefore gradual rate hikes are needed.

With the same point of view as Cleveland Fed President Mester, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that the result was strong enough to reflect an economy that is moving ahead but not too fast to pose risks.

At the time of writing, 10 out of 11 sectors of the SP500 index were trading in the red. Industrials and Materials sectors led the decline, dropping 1.48% and 1.97%, respectively.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2147.00, Stop loss at 2152.00, Take profit at 2140.00

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:22 am
by CSFX.Support
Image
Daily Report on October 10, 2016



Asian stocks were almost unchanged on Monday after the second U.S presidential debate between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump. Financial markets continue to retain their view that Democrat Clinton holds an edge going into presidential election against her Republican rival. With major Asian markets including Tokyo, Hong Kong and Taiwan closed on Monday on account of local holidays, the MSCI Asia Pacific index gained less than 0.1%.

Chinese stocks rallied in the first session after a-week-long break, as the local currency dipped to a six-year low against the U.S dollar. The Chinese Yuan sold off on the back of the central bank's announcement last week that the country’s foreign exchange reserves dropped more than expected in September. This drop in reserves marked a decline for the third month in a row and once again rang alarm bells over capital outflows from the world's second-largest economy.

Downward pressure on the yuan also rose because the U.S. dollar has continued to strengthen on the back of labor market data that has been officially stated by some Fed officials to be strong enough to support a possible U.S. interest rate hike later this year. The US market is also closed on account of the Columbus Day holiday today.

Oil prices are paring early losses stemming from a statement by Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak. Minister Novak expressed his belief in a potential deal this November when OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers gather to discuss details over a new output ceiling, but stated that he was not expecting to reach an agreement with OPEC at the World Energy Conference, which is being held from October 9th to 13th this week in Istanbul.

Elsewhere, USDJPY reversed lower following a gap up on the market open on Monday. Speaking on Saturday, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that the central bank “will not hesitate” on monetary easing if necessary, but based on the moderate recovery witnessed recently, which has been supported by hefty fiscal stimulus, further easing is not warranted for the time being.



Technicals

USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF has trimmed some of the losses from the slide on Friday and looks to be resuming the uptrend and getting back to trade above the 38.2% retracement level at 0.97800. The short-term MA20 continues to play an important role in containing the price fall and forcing the price action to reverse higher. With the RSI index bouncing back from the 50 line, we can observe that the market was restrained from entering into bearish territory. The market is likely to attempt a test of the resistance at 0.98170.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.97900, Take profit at 0.98170, Stop loss at 0.97650



EURJPY



Fig: EURJPY H4 Technical Chart

EURJPY failed to breach the resistance at 116.000, the same level that had prevented the price from surging higher in the first half of September. The price action has penetrated the 20-peiod moving average from above, signaling a reversal into a downtrend. The RSI index has moved past the 50 threshold but we would need the index to fall deeper to confirm the downside as the index is currently swinging back and forth around the average line.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 115.000, Take profit at 114.650, Stop loss at 115.450



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie has pulled back from the resistance at 23.6% level, which has turned into a new zone of resistance after the market fell through this zone towards the end of last week. This zone has served as a firm zone of support through September and therefore the breach becomes significant. The market opened with a gap up today, but gave up the gains in early Asian trade and fell back below the MA20. With downward pressure exerted by the two MAs placed above the price action and bearish sentiment visible in the RSI as well, the pair AUDUSD is expected to extend the down moves.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.75850, Take profit at 0.75550, Stop loss at 0.76170



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H1 Technical Chart

Gold rose back above the 38.2% retracement level at 1249.91 after dropping below this level for the first time since late-May. As can be seen on the H1 chart, the short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from below, indicating an upmove. Other indicators are also confirming the current up-move. While RSI has soared to 59.64, ADX is surging higher in the wake of the widening distance between the +DI line and the –DI line.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1265.00, Take profit at 1275.00, Stop loss at 1255.00



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H1 Technical Chart

Brent crude has been moving within a range between 51.30 and 52.00. The price action created a gap down on the opening today, but is paring earlier losses. A sharp down move on Friday pushed the market below the moving averages. However, considering the Stochastic chart where the %K line has crossed the %D line from below and is running ahead of the %D line, Brent may attempt a test of the upper boundary of the range at 52.00

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 51.60, Take profit at 52.00, Stop loss at 51.20



EURO50



Fig: Euro Stoxx 50 H4 Technical Chart

From the price chart, we can see a rebound in the Euro Stoxx 50 from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 2996.36. The market is struggling with the 50-period moving average and is likely to break through this resistance level as the %K line has crossed over the %D line from below, which indicates a potential up-move coming up.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3010.00, Take profit at 3040.00, Stop loss at 2985.00

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:32 am
by CSFX.Support
NZD/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:15 10/10/2016

Till GMT 21:00 10/10/2016

Sell at0.71400

Take profit at 0.71080

Stop loss at 0.71700

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 11:38 am
by CSFX.Support
Image

Earnings Season Kickstarts In The U.S – Second Clinton-Trump Debate In The Spotlight

U.S stocks closed lower on Friday as a weaker-than-expected jobs report failed to wipe out expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Dow Jones slipped by 0.15 percent, to 18,240.49, the SP500 lost 0.33 percent, to 2,153.74 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.27 percent, to 5,292.41. All three benchmark indexes registered the first weekly drop after three consecutive weeks of gains.

According to the Labor Department’s NFP report released on Friday, there were 156,000 jobs added in the US in September. This result was not only lower than market expectations for 172,000 new jobs added in September, but also indicated a trend towards decreasing numbers over the last four months. The unemployment rate rose to 5% from 4.9% as more Americans entered the labor market looking for work. The number of workers in the labor force surged by 444,000 last month.

Commenting on the jobs report, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said that the economy is at full employment and therefore gradual rate hikes are needed. Echoing the same point of view as Cleveland Fed President Mester, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also stated on Friday that the result was strong enough to reflect an economy that is moving ahead but not too fast to pose risks.

Prior to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls, most of the U.S economic data released earlier in the week posted much-better-than-expected results. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that the purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector rose to 51.5 in September from 49.4 the prior month. The reading pointed to an expansion last month after shrinking in August.
In a separate report on Wednesday, the ISM’s services index was also reported to shoot up to the highest reading in 11 months at 57.1 in September from 51.4 in August. Data on the country’s new orders for factory goods, which was also released on Wednesday by the Commerce Department added further evidence of a healthy US economy. Orders for manufactured goods rose 0.2 percent in August after a downward revision to the July data, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is gradually regaining some steam.

The greenback will remain in focus in the week ahead. The FOMC minutes from the Fed’s September meeting are scheduled to be released on Wednesday. U.S. retail sales and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index are also on the calendar, and due to be released on Friday. Furthermore, U.S. policymakers including FED President Janet Yellen and FOMC Vice Chairman William Dudley are scheduled to speak in the coming week. The main focus will be on Yellen – who is scheduled to speak at the Boston Annual Research Conference on Friday.
Another major source of market guidance for the next four weeks until November 8th, shall be the US quarterly earnings season. This earnings season becomes even more critical given that it is coinciding with the final leg of the US presidential election season. A batch of big names including Alcoa, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase report results in the coming week. Prior to the release of these earnings reports, the second 90-minute-long presidential debate between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump will take place at 9 pm Eastern shall become the focus of attention on Sunday night.

GBPUSD

Over in the UK, the Sterling plunged to around $1.20000 in early Asian trade on Friday after French President Francois Hollande stated that the U.K had to suffer the consequences of a departure from the single market, otherwise, other countries would follow Britain and attempt to leave the EU.

Explaining the free-fall in the market, traders supposed that it was largely due to computer-driven orders that triggered and exacerbated the plunge, especially when the market was in a period of low liquidity. No matter what the cause, sterling recorded the biggest weekly loss versus the U.S dollar, among major currencies, and the steepest one-day decline since the June referendum.
The British Pound had continued to tick lower since the start of last week, following comments by Prime Minister Theresa May that she would begin the two-year period of exit negotiations by the end of March. A fall in the Cable boosted U.K’s FTSE 100 index to surpass the 7000.00 threshold as a weaker currency tends to support exporters which account for a large part of the index.
Under downward pressure from the uncertainty tied to the departure of the U.K from the European Union, the Pound could not find support from encouraging economic data that reflected an expansion in all three core sectors – manufacturing, construction and services. Economists claimed that consequences of the hard “exit” are yet to come, as the U.K is expected to experience a tough negotiation process with the EU vis-a-vis its departure from the bloc. In the week ahead, there is no important data on the U.K economy that could cause any significant data driven moves in the GBP.

EURUSD

Out on the mainland, the Euro ended higher against the dollar on Friday, but finished the week in the red. Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the ECB will probably gradually taper down the asset-buying program before the conclusion of its quantitative easing program. That triggered a jump in EURUSD but the effect did not last long as the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was quick to deny the statement. Draghi said that there had not been such discussion within the ECB. The next policy meeting of the ECB is scheduled to be held on September 20th.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment for October is the highlight of the upcoming week. Economists expect a rebound to 4.2 point after three months in a row that the number has disappointed markets.

USDCAD

Moving onto Canada, the USDCAD rose strongly in the past week despite rising oil prices and strong Canadian jobs data. According to Statistics Canada, more than 67k jobs were created in September, the largest increase since April 2012. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.0%, as more people participated in the labor market, boosting the participation rate to 65.7%.

As stated by the Richard Ivey School of Business’s report, manufacturing activity also accelerated with the IVEY PMI index jumping to 58.4 from 52.3, the highest level since January. Considering these reports, the weakness in the Canadian dollar is considered to have resulted partly from the fall in oil prices on Friday, but was mostly due to the strength of the U.S dollar even after the weaker than expected payrolls report. With no Canadian economic reports scheduled for release next week, CAD flows will dictated by oil.

AUDUSD

Out in Australia, The RBA, led by new Governor Philip Lowe, maintained the benchmark rate at an unchanged level, at a record-low of 1.5 percent at its monetary policy meeting in the early part of last week. The bank cited an unexpected rebound in commodity prices as a boost to the economy, helping it grow at an above-average pace. Additionally, the housing boom in Australia is an area of rising concern and the real estate sector is in a situation that may not be suitable for further cuts, especially when the unemployment rate is falling and international trading conditions are favorable for Australia.

Next week is expected to be a quiet one for the AUD as there is no important data release scheduled, except the NAB Business Confidence Index on Tuesday. AUD/USD will be taking its cue from general risk appetite and the moves in the U.S dollar, as well as an increase in trading volumes as the Chinese markets reopen after a week of holiday. China’s trade balance will be out on Thursday and may have a significant impact on the AUD – given the size and significance of China-Australia trade flows.

NZDUSD

To round up on the markets, the New Zealand dollar reversed lower in the past week, as stumbling dairy prices added pressure on the commodity dependent currency. Composite Dairy Prices fell for the first time since July at the Global Dairy Trade auction on Wednesday. The GDT price index declined by 3 percent to US$2,880, down from US$2,975 at the previous auction two weeks ago. In the coming week, the New Zealand Business manufacturing index is scheduled for release on Thursday. NZD/USD is currently forecast to remain under downward pressure.

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:24 pm
by CSFX.Support
Nasdaq 100 Hits New Peak – Mylan And Crude Oil Power Market – Buying Looks Promising

In an interesting and rare coincidence today, U.S Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton and Incumbent Russian President Vladimir Putin came together to support Wall Street higher. U.S stocks including Nasdaq 100 index registered gains today as bulls were powered by the rally in oil prices and brightening prospects of Hillary Clinton becoming the 45th president of the U.S.

Crude prices took off after president Putin, delivered a speech at the energy conference in Istanbul, pledging Russia’s participation in international efforts to limit oil production to stabilize the market and prop up prices.

The Nasdaq 100 index recorded a new record high at 4905.17, led by a 9% increase in Mylan N.V shares. The pharmaceuticals company stated that its subsidiary Mylan Inc. had reached a $465 million settlement with the Justice Department and other government agencies in the case related to its mis-classification and mis-pricing of anti-allergy treatment EpiPen.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining issues by 70 to 30. Maxim Integrated Products Inc topped the list of worst performers, losing over 3%.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4897.50, Take profit at 4907.00, Stop loss at 4885.00


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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:45 am
by CSFX.Support
GBP/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:45 11/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 11/10/2016

Sell at 127.950
Take profit at 126.800
Stop loss at 129.000

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:20 pm
by CSFX.Support
Alcoa Earnings Fall Short of Estimates – Shorts Favored On Weak Results And Company Break Up

Shares of Alcoa Inc. dropped more than 10% on Tuesday after the metals manufacturer disappointed markets by reporting a worse-than-anticipated quarterly earnings result.

Kicking off the third-quarter earnings season, Alcoa reported net profit of $166 million, or 33 cents per share. Profits were up from $44 million, or 6 cents per share in the same period one year ago, but missed expectations calling for earnings per share of 35 cents.

Alcoa’s revenue fell to $5.21 billion from $5.57 billion in the same quarter a year ago, as a result of lower production in its traditional smelting operation. The advance in profits at the New York-based company resulted from cost-cutting measures and lower income tax provisions.

This is Alcoa’s last quarterly report before it splits into two separate entities – one focussing on the traditional smelting business, and the other on higher-end aluminum and titanium alloys.

Alcoa Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 28.25, Take profit at 26.00, Stop loss at 30.00

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:28 pm
by CSFX.Support
FTSE100 to Set a New Record – Buying Looks Attractive As Pound Continues To Weaken

U.K stocks swing between gains and losses on Tuesday morning as multinationals continued to benefit from a continuing slide in the pound, but energy companies were weighed down by lower oil prices.

The British Pound extended its slide versus the U.S dollar for the fourth consecutive trading day amidst concerns over the potentially tough negotiation between the U.K and the European Union regarding the UK’s exit from the single market. According to Treasury documents, which were leaked to The Times, Britain will lose up to £66 billion a year if it goes for a hard Brexit.

The cost of leaving the single market and the EU customs union, and to switch to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules will be between £38bn and £66bn per year after 15 years, the documents said. The country’s GDP is also forecast to fall by as much as 9.5% compared to the GDP numbers the UK economy would register, were it to remain in the EU. This projection is based on the scenario where Britain leaves the EU without a successor arrangement.

GBPUSD broke through the $1.23000 threshold today and has played a critical role in cheering most of the FTSE 100’s constituents as these companies generate the bulk of their revenues overseas.

Among top movers, fashion brand Burberry Group PLC added 2.10%, reveling in the positive sentiment towards European luxury brands, after French luxury giant LVMH reported that its nine-month revenue rose by 4% compared with the same period last year.

Other retailers including Travis Perkins PLC and Next PLC also witnessed a rise. Shares of Travis Perkins PLC – the builders’ merchant and home improvement company – gained 2.24% after its “outperform” rating was maintained by Credit Suisse Group AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. Meanwhile, Leicester-based apparel and accessories seller Next PLC topped the market – jumping 3.64%.

Hospitality and hotel group Whitbread PLC added to the upside, rising 2.73%.

On the downside, Informa PLC led the list of worst performers. Shares of the publishing and events company dropped around 8% due to the dilution effect of the admission of nil-paid rights on the stock. The rights were tendered due to the acquisition of U.S based Penton Information Services.

With a decrease of 3.34%, insurance, and banking group Old Mutual Wealth became the runner-up on the list of losers. Old Mutual Wealth reported net client cash flows fall in the third quarter by 0.9 billion pounds ($1.12 billion). Cash flow fell from 2.3 billion pounds a year earlier, due to pension reforms that prompted clients to withdraw cash.

Energy stocks drifted lower as oil ticked down after the International Energy Agency, in its monthly report, said that OPEC’s total crude production rose by 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 33.64 million bpd in September. This implies that OPEC needs to slash its current output by between 640,000 and 1.14 m bpd, to reach the ceiling range agreed by the cartel in Algiers which is from 32.5 million to 33 million bpd.

Oil major BP PLC inched 0.18% lower while Royal Dutch Shell pared earlier gains as oil prices headed lower.

FTSE 100 Technical Analysis


FTSE 100 retested the record high logged last week at 7126.95. The steady rally, which has continued since June 27th, has pushed the market into the overbought zone, as indicated by the RSI chart. The bullish momentum seems to be maintaining its strength with a large divergence between +DI and –DI line created in the ADX indicator window. The Index is expected to attempt creation of new all-time highs.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 7130.00, Take profit at 7150.00, Stop loss at 7110.00

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:32 am
by CSFX.Support
Image
Daily Report on October 12, 2016



Asian shares declined for a fourth day after a Wall Street’s sell-off on Tuesday. Not only did a stronger dollar weigh on multinational companies, but a gloomy start of the earnings session knocked down investor confidence in stock markets. The Dow Jones fell 1.09%, to 18,128.66, the S&P 500 lost 1.24%, to 2,136.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.54%, to 5,246.79, led by 11.4% decline in Alcoa’s shares.

Lower oil prices were also one of factors dragging down equity markets yesterday. Crude oil finished lower on Tuesday amidst concerns that Russia will not be fully committed to an OPEC deal to curb oil output, even after Russian President Putin had pledged to join the cartel to re-stabilize the oil market.

Topping up to comments by Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak that his country is currently only considering output freeze option, not production cut, Igor Sechin - the Executive Chairman of oil giant Rosneft - said his company will not trim or freeze output as part of a possible agreement with OPEC.

All major Asian benchmarks ticked lower today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Shanghai Composite Index declined 1.1% and 0.3%, respectively. The British Pound bounced back 1.5% against the greenback on the news reported by Bloomberg that Prime Minister Theresa May had accepted the participation of Parliament in the decision on when to trigger the two-year period of negotiation with the EU regarding the departure of the U.K.

Britain’s Parliament will debate on Wednesday to gain the right to “properly scrutinize” the government’s plan for leaving the EU before PM May begins formal talks. If it wins, the triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which starts the exit process, may be delayed compared to May’s initial plan as most parliamentarians are in favor of remaining within the EU.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

As can be observed from the chart, the pair USDJPY has resumed its uptrend after crawling back from near 104.100 handle. Recent candles have long lower shadows and nearly no upper shadows, which suggested that the pair may have bottomed out. Bulls which are still dominating the market, have stepped in to support the pair from lows. The fact that %K line has crossed over the %D line from below has consolidated upbeat moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 103.650, Take profit at 104.100, Stop loss at 103.300.



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie pulled back from near 38.2% retracement but the upside seem limited as the pair is struggling with two MAs lingering above the price action. Lower lows since the end of September and consistent reversals upon coming up against the moving averages have indicated strengthening bears. RSI is close to the 50 line and is likely to pull back like it did on Monday. The support at 38.2% level is within sight.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.75750, Take profit at 0.75300, Stop loss at 0.76100



GBPNZD



Fig: GBPNZD H4 Technical Chart

GBPNZD has been under heavy downward pressure exerted by the two MAs placed above the price action. The short-term MA20 that forced the pair to reverse lower yesterday, continued to push the pair lower today. With the RSI remaining in bearish territory and pointing towards the oversold zone, GBPNZD is expected to test the low at 1.71400 again.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.73050, Take profit at 1.71400, Stop loss at 1.74000



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude extended its rally after the price fell from one-year highs at around 53.72. Thanks to the dynamic support from the MA20, the market pulled back again and is heading upwards to re-attempt the resistance at 53.36 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level where it had to give up its strength and reverse lower. Along with the stochastic chart that has shown the convergence of the %K line and %D line, the ADX chart where ADX index surged above 20 are factors consolidating the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 52.70, Take profit at 53.35, Stop loss at 52.00



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Having soared above the 38.2% retracement at 3.187 to as high as 3.300, Natural gas trimmed its rally as the one way move may have exhausted bulls for now. Too many buyers created an overblown market vulnerable to reversals, as everyone who wanted to buy may have already bought. Sellers, therefore, jumped in and pushed the price back down. But as can be seen from the chart, all of the recent candles have closed at the same/similar levels, which suggested that bears could not dampen the price lower. Hence, this may be a possibility for a reversal back into an uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.230, Take profit at 3.300, Stop loss at 3.200



EURO50



Fig: Euro Stoxx 50 H4 Technical Chart

Euro Stoxx 50 has generally been following an uptrend supported by a couple of moving averages hovering below the price action. The index has reversed consistently after hitting highs, but we can observe higher highs and higher lows, which suggests that buyers are the overwhelming force currently. As the RSI index has bounced back from the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory, Euro Stoxx 50 may re-attempt the high at 3061.00 logged on September 22nd.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3030.00, Take profit at 3061.00, Stop loss at 3010.00

Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Oct 12, 2016 10:47 am
by CSFX.Support
CAD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:25 12/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 12/10/2016

Buy at 78.360
Take profit at 78.860
Stop loss at 78.000