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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Forex Analysis by LiteForex
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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:12 pm
by MikhailLF
GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Today the pair rose to the level of 1.3515 after the UK and the EU entered into intermediary agreements. According to them, the UK has to grant special rights to 4 mln EU citizens living in its territory, pay 40 to 60 mln euro for withdrawal, and eliminate excessive control at the border of North Ireland. Now the parties may start discussing the trading agreement, but it promises to be even more complicated. Before that Theresa May pointed out that she would try to enter into a free trade contract with the EU under privileged conditions, but it is still unclear what the UK government is ready to trade for it. The absence of clearance may put pressure on the UK businesses and therefore the pound. During the day GBP was also supported by positive statistics: the volume of industrial output in October grew by 3.5%, and the volume of processing industry – by 3.9%.

Right now the pair is being corrected, but the price may reverse if the data from the US labor market released today is weak. The number of workplaces is expected to drop from 261K to 200K. Similar data by ADP released earlier confirmed the negative trend (the indicator reduced from 235K to 190K).

Support and resistance

Right now the price is testing the level of 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands), and in case it is broken down, may continue to decrease to 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3305 (Murrey [2/8]). In case the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 1.3550 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]). Technical indicators show the continuation of the fall. Stochastic is leaving the overbought ares, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3488, 1.3550, 1.3610.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions may be opened below 1.3427 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.3366, 1.3305 and stop-loss at 1.3465.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.3488 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3610 and stop-loss at 1.3455.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:35 pm
by MikhailLF
EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair opened the week with upward correction continuing to act on the mixed November data from the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls was above expectations (228K) but still reduced compared to the previous value (244K). Moreover, hourly growth of salary failed to reach the forecast levels and made up 0.2%. Generally, these data should not have an impact on the decision of the Fed’s members to increase the interest rate again during its December meeting, but it may be of importance in the long run.
The last Fed’s meeting this year is scheduled for this week and will be interesting for the investors not only because of the long-awaited decision on the interest rate but also due to follow-up statements, a press conference, and inflation and economic growth outlooks. In November the market received a number of negative signals indicating possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy due to insufficient inflation growth in the country. At first it was pointed out by Janet Yellen, and then after the release of the recent Fed’s minutes it turned out that the chairwoman was supported by a number of members as well. If Yellen confirms her negative view of the situation, USD may get considerably cheaper.

Support and resistance

Right now the price is moving to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it and the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]) growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise the fall will resume to 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed upwards, Bollinger Bands are narrowing before considerable movement, and MACD is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions may be opened below the level of 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1810.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1810.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:26 am
by MikhailLF
USD/CAD: Murray analysis

Current trend

Since October on the daily chart the pair is trading above the Ultimate Resistance of Murray ([8/8]) around 1.2695, but cannot break the level of 1.2940 (Murray [+2/8]) and is trading within the horizontal channel. Now the price is trying to reverse into fall to the lover border of the range 1.2695. However, it needs to consolidate below the level of 1.2817 (Murray [+1/8]), as the price is set near it. Stochastic confirms the possibility of the decrease, entering the overbought zone, which reflects the perspective of a reversal. In addition, the price is near the temporal border, where the direction of the movement usually changes. If the price cannot break the level of 1.2817, it can grow to the levels of 1.2940 and 1.3000 (Murray [5/8] for H4).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2940 ([+2/8]), 1.3000 ([5/8] for H4).
Support levels: 1.2817 ([+1/8]), 1.2695 ([8/8]), 1.2573 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 1.2817 with the target at 1.2695 and stop loss at around 1.2860.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2940 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.2840.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:40 pm
by MikhailLF
Brent Crude Oil: oil tries to reclaim positions

Current trend

On Tuesday, the Brent price underwent significant fluctuations. First, it reached two-year highs, outpacing the mark of $65.00 per barrel, but then adjusted to the area of 62.60. The growth of quotes was caused by reports on the suspension of the operation of the largest North Sea pipeline, Forties Pipeline System, which transported 40% of region’s oil from 85 fields. However, the enthusiasm of investors quickly dried up, giving way to fears that the physical restriction of the supply of the North Sea blend could lead to its ousting from the Asian markets by other types of oil from the Middle East.
At the moment oil prices are making a new attempt at growth, taking advantage of a significant reduction in commercial oil reserves in the United States. According to the API, it amounted to 7.382 million barrels. In addition, prices were supported by OPEC chairman Mohamed Barkindo, who said that the surplus of world oil reserves fell to 130 million barrels, while last month it was 154 million barrels. This fact indicates the gradual return of the oil market to stability. Probably, these data will be reflected in OPEC's monthly report on the oil market that is coming out today. Also we should note the evening release of data on oil reserves in the US from the EIA, which are also expected to show reduction (by 3.78 million barrels). Finally, one can not discount the factor of the Fed meeting.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is in the region of the upper boundary of the Murrey channel ([5/8]) at 63.28, further price growth is hampered by the middle Bollinger Bands’ line. The potential for further recovery of quotes to the levels of 64.05 (Murrey [6/8]) and 65.84 (Murrey [7/8]) is available, as turned up Stochastic shows. However, fixing the price below the 63.28 mark will give the prospect of resuming the decline to 62.50 (Murrey [4/8]), 61.72 (Murrey [3/8]), and 60.93 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72, 60.93.
Resistance levels: 64.05, 64.84, 65.62.

Trading tips

In the current situation, short positions may be opened below the level of 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.60. Long positions should be opened from the level of 63.70, with targets at 64.00, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.30.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:17 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex: XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

Current trend

On the 4-hour chart the price is growing after the reversal around 1240.00. Now the “bullish” targets are the level of 1260.05 (correction 38.2%) and 1267.50 (correction 50.0%), approximately coinciding with the lower border of the sideways channel for D1 chart and being a key level for the further growth. If the price is set below the level of 1250.90 (correction 23.6%, the price can return to 6 months lows at the area of 1240.00.

On the daily chart the price оrebounded from the correction cluster 1242.00 (50.0% for W1, 76.4% for D1) and is now trying to grow through the upward upcoming fan. Key “bullish” level is the correction cluster around 1265.00 (38.2% for W1 and 61.8% for D1) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands behind it. After the breakout of the levels the price can return to the long term horizontal channel and can grow to the levels of 1279.50 (correction 50.0%) and 1297.00 (correction cluster 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). However, the possibility of the reversal of the price 1265.00, which is the strong “mirror” resistance and return of the price to the area of 1242.00 is high.

Main scenario

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1250.00 or after the rebound at the level of 1265.00 with the target at 1242.00 and stop loss 1256.00 and 1268.00.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1267.50 with the targets at 1279.50, 1297.00 and stop loss around 1264.00.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:41 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex: EUR/USD: the pair remains in the downward channel

Current trend

The European currency against USD dollar remains in the side consolidation stage in the long term despite its wide channel. Euro had been consolidating against USD until the end of November due to the fall of demand for the US currency. However, dollar was strengthened by positive data on the main sectors of the US economy, namely strong December releases on the labor market, inflation, key indexes, and industrial output.

Right now the pair is trading in the wide downward channel. Today it received support from positive data on key Eurozone indexes. The upward impulse is likely to remain today due to the absence of key released from the USA. A set of data is expected from Germany on Tuesday and Wednesday and may give the pair dynamics. The main macroeconomic releases for the USA (final GDP and labor market data) are due at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

The downward trend is likely to remain until the end of the year in view of growing demand for USD after the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate and in view of positive fundamental background. The pair may gradually go down to 1.1600, but before that it should break through the strong support level of 1.1690.
Technically, the pair remain in the medium term downward channel increasing pressure on the European currency. Indicators fail to show direction: MACD in the D1 chart is near the zero mark, and Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. Therefore, an alternative scenario will be the consolidation of the pair within the wide side channel.

Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1690, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1530, 1.1500, 1.1470.
Resistance levels: 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.1980, 1.2030.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1870.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:43 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: Murrey analysis

Current trend

In the H4 chart the price has been trading within the range of 63.28 ([5/8])-62.50 ([4/8]) for the third session in a row. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 63.28. In case of its breakthrough growth may continue to 64.06 ([6/8]) and 64.84 ([7/8]). However, the drivers on the week before Christmas may be insufficient, and it will remain within the said trading range.

Generally, technical indicators show the possibility of growth: Bollinger Bands start to rise, and Stochastic is also directed upwards. One may speak about considerable reduction to 61.72 ([3/8]) and 60.93 ([2/8]) only after the price consolidates below 62.50 ([4/8]) which seems unlikely in the short term.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 62.50 ([4/8], central line of Murrey range), 61.72 ([3/8], bottom of the channel), 60.93 ([2/8])
Resistance levels: 63.28 ([5/8], top of the channel), 64.06 ([6/8]), 64.84 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

In this situation buy positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 63.28 with targets at 64.06, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.00.
Short positions should be opened if the price moves away from 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.45.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:44 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the 4-hour chart the price has been growing for the third week and it has reached the level of 0.7770.
In case of reversal of the price, the downward correction to the level of 0.7705 (correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. If the price is set above the level of 0.7770, the further growth is possible, but its potential seems restricted, as Stochastic is in the overbought area and can form a sell signal in the nearest future.
On the daily chart the price is tending to the corrections cluster at the area of 0.7780 (50.0% and 38.2%); in addition, in this area the downward correctional fan line 38.2% goes. All the facts, supported by Stochastic, which has entered the overbought area, shows the possibility of the fall to the levels of 0.7700 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7615 (correction 61.8%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price is set above the level of 0.7780 the further growth to the levels of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%) and 0.7885 (correction 23.6%) is possible, but the price should break through the downward fan.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7780 with the targets at 0.7700, 0.7615 and stop loss at 0.7820.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.7800 with the targets at 0.7845, 0.7885 and stop loss around 0.7870.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:42 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the 4-hour chart the price has been growing for the third week and it has reached the level of 0.7770.
In case of reversal of the price, the downward correction to the level of 0.7705 (correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. If the price is set above the level of 0.7770, the further growth is possible, but its potential seems restricted, as Stochastic is in the overbought area and can form a sell signal in the nearest future.
On the daily chart the price is tending to the corrections cluster at the area of 0.7780 (50.0% and 38.2%); in addition, in this area the downward correctional fan line 38.2% goes. All the facts, supported by Stochastic, which has entered the overbought area, shows the possibility of the fall to the levels of 0.7700 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7615 (correction 61.8%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price is set above the level of 0.7780 the further growth to the levels of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%) and 0.7885 (correction 23.6%) is possible, but the price should break through the downward fan.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7780 with the targets at 0.7700, 0.7615 and stop loss at 0.7820.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.7800 with the targets at 0.7845, 0.7885 and stop loss around 0.7870.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:53 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex: USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

US dollar continues to reduce against the majors due to low trading volumes. Market players are cautious waiting for the release of the minuted of the Fed’s December meeting. No important macroeconomic releases are expected from Japan until the end of the week. At the same time, US currency is under pressure from central banks of other countries, as the growth of the global economy in 2017 catalyzes the tightening of the monetary policy in a number of key states leading to the reduction of differences between the rates.

The main event of today is the release of the minutes of December Fed’s meeting. Investors hope to receive new data on further rates of the US fiscal policy. Moreover, market volatility may be caused by simultaneous release of gradual inflation build-up index and industrial PMI, as well as the data on construction expenses in the USA. The pair is extremely sensitive to inflation indicators, as its low level in the USA prevents the Fed from implementing its monetary policy plans.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart the instrument has been corrected to 112.25. A strong support level is 112.00. Breaking through it will be a strong signal for the opening of short positions. Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the price range has slightly reduced. A key resistance level is 112.40. MACD histogram has reached its minimal level in the negative zone, and the strong sell signal is still valid. Stochastic fails to give a clear signal for entering the market.
Support levels: 111.60, 111.80, 112.00, 112.25.
Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.60, 112.80, 113.15, 113.35.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 112.25 with targets at 111.80, 111.60 and stop-loss at 112.50. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 112.45 with targets at 112.85 and stop-loss at 112.25. The period of implementation is 1 day.