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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Forex Analysis by LiteForex
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Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:56 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. NI225: technical analysis

NI225, D1

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support region.

NI225, H4

On the hourly chart, the instrument is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is falling as well.
Key levels
Support levels: 19889.00 (local lows), 19865.00 (July lows), 19670.00 (March highs).
Resistance levels: 20198.00 (July highs), 20288.00 (June highs), 20550.00 (May 2015 highs).

Trading tips

The price is forming a “contraction triangle” pattern. Positions can be opened after a breakout of either of its borders.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 20198.00 with targets at 20288.00, 20550.00 and stop-loss at 20090.00. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 19865.00 with the target at 19670.00 and stop-loss at 19963.00. Validity – 3-5 days.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Fri Aug 04, 2017 2:32 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. XAU/USD: general review
 
Current trend

After yesterday's fall gold price has restored lost positions and is currently trading at the level of 1268.00. The price of the metal as a safe haven asset is growing, while US dollar is weak after the Fed's refusal to increase the rates this year due to low inflation.

On Friday the market is waiting for a report on the number of non-farm payrolls. NFPR will gain 183K in July against 222K in June. The level of unemployment will drop to 4.3% from 4.4%, and average hourly salary will slightly grow from 0.2% to 0.3% in June, as expected.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart XAU/USD is consolidating near the 1268.00 mark. The price has returned to the upward channel after a false break-through.  MACD indicator is below the signal line with its volumes reducing, Stochastic lines are in the overbought area and directed to the side.

Resistance levels: 1273.70, 1280.00, 1288.00.
Support levels: 1256.00, 1250.00, 1242.00.

Trading tips

The pair may be bought if the price breaks through 1274.00 with target at 1280.00 and stop-loss at 1272.00.
Short positions should become relevant below the level of 1263.00 with targets at 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1266.00.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 2:35 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Today the price for WTI continues to move within the narrow side range 48.50-49.70.

During the Friday trading the price of oil was supported by the data on the reduction of the number of oil rigs in the USA. Within the week that ended on August 4 it was reduced by 1 to 765.

On the other hand, despite that the production of oil in the USA reached 9.43mln barrels a day which is the highest indicator since August 2015. Moreover, according to last week's release by Thompson Reuters Oil Research, the export of oil in OPEC states in July reached the record-setting level of 26.11 barrels a day.
In the beginning of the current week the members of OPEC+ technical committee will meet in Abu Dhabi to discuss the fulfillment of obligation to reduce oil production by certain parties to the agreement.

Support and resistance


The price of WTI is trading around MA(200) at the level of 49.50 and is still unable to break through it. MACD indicator is located above zero and signal lines, and Stochastic is in the neutral zone with its lines pointing downwards. Indicators give uncertain signals.

Resistance levels: 46. 60, 47.40, 48.20.
Support levels: 45.80, 45.20, 44.40

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 48.40 with target at 47.30 and stop-loss at 49.00.
Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 50.40 with targets at 51.90 and stop-loss at 50.00.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Tue Aug 08, 2017 2:24 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. SX5E: technical analysis

SX5E, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is about to test its strong resistance. The Composite is growing as well.

SX5E, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is growing towards the border of the overbought zone. The Composite turned up as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 3462.0 (local lows), 3430.0 (July lows), 3399.0 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 3515.0 (local highs), 3533.0 (July highs), 3552.0 (May lows).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating above its previous descending trendline. The growth is likely to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3515.0 with targets at 3533.0, 3552.0 and stop-loss at 3502.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3462.0 with targets at 3430.0, 3399.0 and stop-loss at 3480.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:11 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair is moving within the narrow range, waiting for significant fundamental or economical releases, which can determine the further dynamics. The growth of the pair slowed after significant growth in the end of the last week. The market split into two parts, one considers the strengthening of USD against CAD reflects the decrease of oil prices in the nearest future, the other believes that the pair is in the correction of the strong downward trend, and soon the pair will fall again.

Today traders should pay attention to Q2 Unit Labor Costs publication and Nonfarm Productivity statistics in the USA. In Canada Housing Starts data will be released, which reflect the strength of Canadian housing market and shows the economy state. The decrease against the previous values is expected, which can affect Canadian currency negatively.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is moving within the narrow range, formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD is in the positive zone, keeping a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.2660, 1.2635, 1.2600, 1.2550.
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2750.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.2730 and stop loss at 1.2635. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2600 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.2635.
Implementation period: 2-5 days.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:30 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

XAU/USD is strengthening due to the poor macroeconomic statistic publication in the USA and political tense between USA and North Korea.

Yesterday the Initial Jobless Claims data were published, which were worse than expected: the index grew from 241 to 244K, as the experts supposed the fall to 240K. In addition, the July Producer Price Index unexpectedly falls by 0.1%, which resulted in the decrease of the YoY indicator. The USD is also under the pressure due to New York Fed’s president William Dudley’s statement, who expressed the fear of the low inflation. In the current situation gold is an attractive asset for the investors in the short term.

Today’s key release is Consumer Price Index publication in the USA. If the indicator is worse than expected, the pair will too likely to renew the year highs.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is trying to consolidate above the level of 1290.00. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards; the price range stays the same, reflecting the high possibility of the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping buy signal. Stochastic is ready to enter the overbought area.

Support levels: 1265.00, 1270.40, 1274.75, 1280.75.
Resistance levels: 1289.00, 1296.20, 1307.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1289.50 with the target at 1300.00 and stop loss at 1286.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1280.00 with the target at 1270.25 and stop loss at 1284.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:23 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex. GBP/USD: pound is under the pressure of high inflation

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair was rapidly corrected to the level of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). US dollar was supported by strong July Retail Sales data (in July the index grew by 0.6%) and new rumors upon the soon Fed’s interest rate rise. On the other hand, pound is under the pressure of June UK Consumer Price Index, which stayed at the same high level of 2.6%, as the fall of fuel prices was balance by the growth of food prices.

The long term maintenance of the high level of inflation raises concerns of market, as the earning index in the UK don’t keep pace with the Consumer Price Index growth, which leads to the impoverishing of the households, fall of retail sales and pressure on the GDP.

Today the Average Earnings data will be published in the UK, the index including bonus is expected to stay on the same level of 2.0% and index excluding bonus — on the level of 1.8% In this case the pair can decrease further. In addition, investors are waiting for the employment market data in the UK, which are expected to be more positive. The decrease of unemployment level from 5.9K to 3.7K is expected in June.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the narrow sideways range of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%) and 1.2880 (Murray ), waiting for the employment and earnings data. In case of breakout of the upper border of the range the price can grow to the levels of 1.2930 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3005 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murray ). The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2845 can let it go down to the area of 1.2800 and 1.2750 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2750.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930, 1.3005.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2930, 1.3005 and stop loss around 1.2840.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2845 with the targets at 1.2800, 1.2750 and stop loss at 1.2880.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:43 am
by FrankByMonster
That was informative

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:22 pm
by MikhailLF
LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: price consolidates

Current trend

Today the price of WTI is trading near the level of 47.60, to where it corrected after the publication of the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

The report demonstrated another decline in reserves though smaller than in the previous two weeks (only for 3.6 million barrels). The instrument is not able to begin its growth even though there are supply disruptions from the Sharara oil field in Libya and a decision of one of the world’s largest miners BHP Billiton to sell its US shale assets due to their underperformance. Markets have paused as investors are waiting for the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Stock Change tonight that could also show a smaller decline in reserves, which might still pressure the instrument.

Support and resistance

The price fell below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands and could continue falling towards 47.10 (38.2% Fibonacci correction) and 46.15 (50% correction). Crucial for Bulls seems to be the level of 47.80 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), a breakout of which would lead to a growth towards a cluster of 23.6% corrections (48.40 and 49.00). Technical indicators do not give a clear signal representing an uncertainty of the market before the news release. The Stochastic is directed down, Bollinger bands up while MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are insignificant.

Support levels: 47.10, 46.15, 45.20.
Resistance levels: 47.80, 48.40, 49.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 47.10 with the target at 46.15 and stop-loss at 47.50.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 47.80 with targets at 48.40, 49.00 and stop-loss at 47.40.

Re: Forex Analysis by LiteForex

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:06 am
by MikhailLF
LiteForex USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair was under the pressure of US New Home Sales statistics fall. In addition, the PMI Markit decreased to 52.5 basis points, which is by 0.8 points lower than expected. Today in Japan Foreign bond investment data were published. The volume of investments into debt obligations decreased, which let USD restore part of yesterday’s loss.

Today 3-day Economic Policy Symposium starts in Jackson Hole. Tomorrow Janet Yellen speech is expected. Her commentaries upon inflation, terms and volumes of balance-sheet reduction of the US regulator will greatly affect the dynamics of the price in the short term. Today the Initial Jobless Claims publication is worth traders’ attention. The expected growth of index will let the USD/JPY pair fall further.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair began to grow from the support level of 108.85. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards; the price range is stable, which reflects the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone; its volumes are decreasing, keeping a strong signal to open short positions. Stochastic doesn’t give clear signals to enter the market.

Support levels: 108.85, 108.60, 108.20.
Resistance levels: 109.40, 109.90, 110.35, 111.10.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 109.40 with the target around 110.30 and stop loss at 109.10. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 109.00 with the target around 108.60, 108.40 and stop loss at 109.20. Implementation period: 1–2 days.