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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 14, 2017)

PostPosted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:55 am
by katetrades
USD

US CPI figures came in weaker than expected as the headline and core readings came in at 0.1% versus the projected 0.2% pickup, further dampening September rate hike expectations. There are no major reports lined up from the US today so dollar pairs could take their cues from market sentiment, which is mostly being influenced by the North Korea situation.

EUR

Euro zone data came in mixed with German and French final CPI readings coming in line with estimates and the German WPI printing a worse than expected 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.3% uptick. French preliminary non-farm payrolls turned out stronger than expected with a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.4% rise. Euro zone industrial production is due next and a 0.4% drop is eyed.

GBP

There were no major reports out of the UK economy last Friday and none are due today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for this week's top-tier releases. These include the CPI, jobs data, and retail sales readings that might influence BOE policy bias. Apart from that, market sentiment could also determine how pound pairs might behave.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of some risk-off flows but it looks like traders are still wary of SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so risk sentiment might still be the main driver of franc price action.

JPY

The yen raked in more gains on Friday but gave up some ground on profit-taking at the end of the week. Earlier today, Japan printed a stronger 1.0% GDP growth compared to the earlier 0.3% expansion. The price index was down 0.4%, half of the earlier 0.8% slide. Market sentiment could also push yen pairs around, based on headlines regarding North Korea.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to make a bit of a rebound before the week came to a close as traders booked profits to avoid weekend risk. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a 2.0% increase in headline retail sales for Q2 and a 2.1% gain in core retail sales. Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data are lined up next but risk appetite might still be the bigger drivers of comdoll movement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 15, 2017)

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:42 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar recovered from its downbeat performance late last week, thanks to upbeat remarks from Fed official Dudley and a positive close for equities. Although it has been reported that Kim Jong Un has been briefed about the missile strike plan on Guam, he did note that they'll wait and see how the US acts first. US retail sales data are lined up next and rebounds are eyed.

EUR

The euro gave up some ground upon seeing downbeat industrial production data. The report printed a 0.6% drop versus the estimated 0.4% dip while the previous reading was downgraded to 1.2%. German preliminary GDP is due next and a 0.7% growth figure is eyed while French and Italian banks are closed for the holiday.

GBP

The pound tried to hold its ground as traders are pricing in expectations for the upcoming CPI release. The headline reading is projected to rebound from 2.6% to 2.7% while the core reading could tick up from 2.4% to 2.5%. Weaker than expected data, however, could lead to more losses for the UK currency.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its recent gains as risk appetite improved in the markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while the PPI is lined up today. A flat reading is eyed after the report printed a 0.1% dip in the previous period.

JPY

The yen was also weaker against most of its peers as risk-taking appeared to return or traders booked profits from their earlier long positions. Japan's revised industrial production report is lined up but no revisions to the initial 1.6% estimate are eyed. Market sentiment could continue driving yen pairs from here.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were still in a weak spot even with the pickup in risk-taking. WTI crude oil edged down on looming NAFTA renegotiations while downbeat data from China also weighed on the Aussie and Kiwi. Chinese industrial production slipped from 7.6% to 6.4% while retail sales fell from 11% to 10.4%. RBA minutes are due next and New Zealand will have its GDT auction in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 16, 2017)

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:35 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar got a bit of a boost from stronger than expected July retail sales figures, along with positive revisions for the June report. The Empire State manufacturing index also posted a strong rise from 9.8 to 25.2, higher than the projected 10.1 figure. Import prices posted the projected 0.1% uptick. US building permits and housing starts are due today, but the FOMC minutes could have a bigger impact on the dollar. Cautious remarks downplaying the odds of a September hike could be dollar bearish and traders are also anticipating more details on the balance sheet runoff.

EUR

The euro took a few hits in recent trading as the only piece of data turned out below expectations. Germany reported a 0.6% GDP reading for Q2 versus the projected 0.7% expansion. The region's flash GDP is due today and a 0.6% reading is eyed, with weaker than expected results likely to weigh on ECB tapering expectations.

GBP

The pound continued to slump against its peers upon seeing weaker than expected CPI. The headline reading was unchanged at 2.6% instead of rising to the estimated 2.7% figure while the core figure also held steady at 2.4%. Jobs data is due next and the claimant count could come in at 3.2K, lower than the earlier 5.9K rise in joblessness. The average earnings index is projected to hold steady at 1.8%.

CHF

The franc continued to lose ground as risk appetite improved in the markets on easing concerns about North Korea. Swiss PPI posted a flat reading as expected and there are no major reports due from Switzerland today, leaving market sentiment in charge of franc movements.

JPY

The yen was also on the back foot as improvements in risk appetite forced the lower-yielding currency to retreat. Japan's industrial production reading was upgraded from 1.6% to 2.2% instead of staying unchanged as expected. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi took a hit from the GDT auction which yielded a 0.4% drop in dairy prices. In Australia, new motor vehicle sales slipped by 2.0% while the wage price index posted another 0.5% gain for Q2 as expected. The API reported another larger than expected draw in crude oil stockpiles while the EIA is expected to print a reduction of 3 million barrels. New Zealand has its quarterly PPI report lined up as well.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 17, 2017)

PostPosted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:28 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar was weighed down heavily by downbeat housing starts and building permits, followed by the FOMC minutes and the fallout in Washington. Building permits fell from 1.28M to 1.22M while housing starts declined from 1.21M to 1.16M. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers are still reluctant to commit to a balance sheet runoff date and the fallout from Trump's handling of Charlottesville has weighed on fiscal policy speculations. Initial jobless claims, industrial production, and the Philly Fed index are lined up next.

EUR

Euro zone economic data simply came in line with expectations as Italy reported a 0.4% growth figure while the region chalked up a 0.6% expansion. Final CPI readings are due today but traders might be more interested to read the ECB minutes as many are hoping to see more clues on tapering.

GBP

The pound took a break from its slide upon seeing upbeat UK jobs data. The claimant count fell by 4.2K instead of indicating a 3.2K rise in joblessness for July while the June figure saw an upgrade. The average earnings index climbed to 2.1% while the earlier reading was upgraded to 1.9% and the jobless rate declined from 4.5% to 4.4%. Retail sales is due next and a 0.2% uptick is eyed.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to country-specific events. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could still push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness but was still in a weak spot against its higher-yielding counterparts. Earlier today, Japan printed a stronger than expected trade surplus of 0.34T JPY versus the projected 0.20T JPY and the earlier 0.09T JPY reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to rake in more gains, especially the Kiwi which got a boost from upbeat PPI data. Input prices surged 1.4% versus the 0.9% consensus while output prices rose 1.3% versus the projected 0.7% gain. Crude oil inventories fell by 8.9 million barrels, larger than the estimated draw of 3 million barrels to ease oversupply concerns. Australia also printed a stronger than expected 27.9K increase in hiring for July.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 18, 2017)

PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:18 am
by katetrades
USD

The dollar remained in a weak spot due to the fallout from Trump's response to the violence in Charlottesville. Economic data also turned out mixed, leaving some doubts on the Fed's ability to hike again in September. This was emphasized by FOMC member Kaplan who spoke about the slack in the labor market and the need to exercise more patience in waiting for stronger inflation before tightening. Another speech by Kaplan is scheduled, along with the release of the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index.

EUR

The euro tumbled against its peers after the ECB minutes were released as these didn't contain much conviction on tapering as many expected. To add to that, the terror attack in Barcelona weighed heavily on risk-taking and investor sentiment. In terms of data, final CPI readings from the region were unchanged at 1.3% for the headline figure and 1.2% for the core version.

GBP

The pound resumed its drop against some of its rivals even after the UK reported stronger than expected retail sales. Consumer spending ticked 0.3% higher versus the projected 0.2% increase. There are no reports due from the UK for the rest of the week.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of risk aversion as traders were hesitant to buy up the dollar anyway. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy and none are due today so market sentiment could continue to prop the Swiss currency up or profit-taking could ensue.

JPY

The yen was able to rake in plenty of gains on the BOJ's JGB trimming and the pickup in risk-taking. Japan's trade balance also turned out stronger than expected at a surplus of 0.34 trillion JPY. CPI readings are due next and a strong batch could fuel expectations of another reduction in purchases of bonds by the central bank.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were badly hit by the return in risk aversion in the past sessions, spurred by a terror attack in Barcelona and political risks in the US. Australia reported a higher than expected 27.9K rise in employment versus the projected 19.8K gain while the earlier figure was upgraded to 20K. Canada is set to print its CPI figures next and strong readings could keep traders expecting another BOC hike.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 22, 2017)

PostPosted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 3:12 am
by katetrades
USD

The dollar edged slightly lower at the start of the week as trader reacted to Bannon's resignation. This reminded market watchers of the internal conflict in Washington and how this could derail the fiscal reform agenda. Also, resurfacing tensions with North Korea dampened the dollar's gains upon the start of the joint military drills between the US and South Korea. There were no reports out of the US yesterday while today has HPI and the Richmond manufacturing index.

EUR

The euro was able to advance against some of its peers as traders are pricing in taper remarks from Draghi in the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. There were no major reports out of the region yesterday while today has the German ZEW economic sentiment figure lined up. Analysts are expecting to see a dip from 17.5 to 14.8. The region's index could fall from 35.6 to 34.2.

GBP

The pound struggled to hold its ground on the lack of top-tier UK data. The Rightmove HPI showed a 0.9% drop in house prices versus the earlier 0.1% uptick. The CBI industrial order expectations index is due next and a fall from 10 to 8 is eyed.

CHF

The franc was able to rake in some gains on returning risk aversion due to the start of the military exercises between the US and South Korea. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance on the docket. Analysts are expecting to see a wider surplus of 2.88 billion CHF compared to the earlier 2.81 billion CHF.

JPY

The yen also caught some wins on weakening dollar demand and a pickup in risk aversion. Japan's all industries activity index logged in a 0.4% uptick versus the projected 0.5% gain. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in a weak spot due to the return in risk aversion, although it has been reported that OPEC output likely dropped while compliance reached 94%. Canadian wholesale sales saw a 0.5% drop versus the projected 0.6% gain.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 23, 2017)

PostPosted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 4:37 am
by katetrades
USD

The dollar regained some ground on the return of risk aversion stemming from North Korea jitters. The US and South Korea have started their joint military exercises this week and a North Korean diplomat has been quoted saying that this could be an act of provocation. The Richmond manufacturing index was unchanged at 14 while US HPI posted a meager 0.1% uptick. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due next, along with new home sales data.

EUR

The euro tried to hold its ground even with downbeat economic data. Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index fell from 17.5 to 10 versus the 14.8 consensus while the region's index dropped from 35.6 to 29.3. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due and strong reports could allow the shared currency to rebound.

GBP

UK public sector net borrowing was at a deficit of 0.8 billion GBP, which means that the government was able to collect more than it spent for the period. There are no major reports lined up from the UK economy today but the pound remains under pressure on Brexit risks.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific events, managing to draw a bit of a bid on risk aversion. The Swiss trade balance showed a larger than expected surplus of 3.51 billion CHF versus the projected 2.88 billion CHF, easing the pressure on the SNB to intervene to keep the currency weak.

JPY

The yen was also able to benefit from risk-off flows as the revival of North Korean concerns prompted a flight to safety. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.8, higher than the projected 52.3 figure. Risk appetite could continue to push yen pairs around from here.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Canada's retail sales reports came in mixed but the Loonie was able to rake in some gains. The core reading showed a 0.7% gain instead of staying flat but the headline figure was up only 0.1% instead of the 0.2% consensus on weaker auto and gasoline sales. Crude oil inventories data is lined up next, along with New Zealand's trade balance.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 24, 2017)

PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:15 am
by katetrades
USD

The dollar gave up some ground on speculations of a government shutdown as Trump threatened to trigger one unless he gets the funds to build the wall along the Mexican border. There have also been whispers of conflict among lawmakers that refuse to support this agenda but Senate majority leader McConnell assured that their team is working closely with the President. Data turned out mixed, with the manufacturing PMI posting a surprise dip in activity and the services component surprising to the upside. New home sales disappointed due to rising prices making homes less affordable to potential buyers. The attention turns to the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium next and Yellen's speech.

EUR

The euro dipped after Draghi's testimony barely contained any strong hints on monetary policy moves but the shared currency soon recovered on expectations of taper-related remarks in his upcoming Jackson Hole Speech. Euro zone PMI readings were mostly stronger than expected while consumer confidence held steady at -2.

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to its counterparts instead of establishing its own direction. There were no major reports out of the UK economy in previous trading sessions and traders are turning to the second GDP estimate next. Analysts are expecting to see another 0.3% expansion but project that business investment would slow to 0.2% from the earlier 0.6% gain.

CHF

The franc was able to benefit from a continuation of risk-off and anti-dollar moves stemming from threats of a government shutdown from Trump. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy recently and none are due today so the franc could take its cue from euro action and Draghi's remarks.

JPY

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness stemming from government shutdown concerns and persistent risks from North Korea. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI was stronger than expected at 52.8 versus the consensus at 52.3 and the earlier 52.1 figure. There are no reports due from Japan today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for the CPI data due on Friday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was the weakest of the bunch as it got bogged down by GDP downgrades in the Treasury's pre-election fiscal update. Meanwhile, the Loonie stayed supported after crude oil advanced on the EIA report, which indicated that stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels as expected. New Zealand's trade balance is due next and a smaller deficit of 200 million NZD from the earlier 242 million NZD shortfall is eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 25, 2017)

PostPosted: Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:55 am
by katetrades
USD

The dollar traded mostly sideways as traders are taking it easy ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech. Medium-tier reports turned out weaker than expected, with existing home sales falling in line with the downbeat trend of earlier housing reports and initial jobless claims showing a slight uptick in unemployment. US durable goods orders data is also due today but the attention is likely fixed on Yellen's remarks.

EUR

The shared currency also traded carefully as Draghi's Jackson Hole speech is also one of the more anticipated parts of the event. Some expect the central bank to drop taper clues while others think that the speech might disappoint. German Ifo business climate index is also due, along with the country's final GDP reading.

GBP

The UK second GDP estimate came in line with estimates of no changes from the earlier 0.3% figure. However, the preliminary business investment reading for the quarter showed a flat reading, slower than the estimated 0.2% uptick and the earlier 0.6% increase. Also, the CBI realized sales index slumped from 22 to -10 instead of dipping to 15. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc traded sideways for the most part but gave up some gains when risk-taking returned. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver or the franc could simply react to country-specific events.

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent gains as risk appetite kicked in and profit-taking took place ahead of the Jackson Hole speeches. Japan is set to print its CPI readings next, with both the national and Tokyo core CPI readings expected to show a slightly faster increase in price levels.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was able to rake in gains against its peers even as crude oil dipped on a likely increase in output ahead of Hurricane Harvey's landfall in Texas. Meanwhile, the Kiwi continued to slide across the board following the downbeat forecasts in the Treasury's pre-election fiscal update. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day so market sentiment could push these pairs around.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 28, 2017)

PostPosted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 2:53 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar took a hit after the Jackson Hole speeches as Yellen expressed some concerns about inflation, downplaying hopes of a Fed rate hike in September. Headline durable goods orders came in weaker than expected at a 6.8% loss versus the projected 6.0% drop but the core reading came in slightly better than expected at 0.5%. Goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories are due next.

EUR

The euro surged across the board after Draghi refrained from dropping cautious remarks during his Jackson Hole speech. German final GDP and import prices also came in line with expectations. Data on private loans and M3 money supply are due today but these aren't likely to have a strong impact on euro action.

GBP

The pound was once again weighed down by Brexit concerns are talks are set to resume this week. There were no reports out of the UK economy on Friday while today has an empty docket again since banks are closed for the holiday.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events rather than establishing its own direction. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around or consolidation could be in play.

JPY

The yen regained some ground as it took advantage of dollar weakness after the Jackson Hole Symposium. Data from Japan turned out mixed, with the national core CPI coming in line with estimates of 0.5% and the Tokyo core CPI beating expectations at 0.4%. There are no reports due from Japan today so quiet trading could be in order.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed run as the gang was able to benefit from dollar weakness but were still vulnerable to euro strength and risk aversion. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies then and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver of price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way