[phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /inc_viewtopic.php on line 1494: Undefined variable: sMetaDescription
Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way
Page 5 of 103

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 24, 2013)

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2013 7:10 am
by katetrades
USD

Despite the recent wave of strong U.S. data, the dollar still lost ground to its major counterparts, particularly the yen in yesterday’s trading. Traders took profits off key support levels, such as 0.9600 on AUD/USD, which paved the way for a dollar selloff. In addition, the rally in U.S. equities has sparked a risk rally, which has benefitted the higher-yielding currencies. The U.S. initial jobless claims reading was at 340K, better than the estimated 350K reading and consistent with the recent improvements in the labor market. The flash manufacturing PMI and the new home sales also came in better than consensus. For today, the U.S. is set to print its durable goods orders data and possibly print a 1.5% rebound in its headline figure.

EUR

Euro zone PMI figures came in mixed for April, although most still remained below 50.0 indicating industry contraction. The German and French services PMI both missed expectations while the manufacturing industries showed better than expected results. Overall, euro zone’s services PMI landed at 47.7 up from 46.9 while the manufacturing PMI rose from 46.7 to 47.8. German GDP and German GfK consumer sentiment data are set for release today.

GBP

The British pound was able to stage a nice recovery against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as it bounced above the 1.5100 major psychological level. U.K. GDP came in line with consensus, with no revision to the 0.3% uptick in growth. For today, the BBA mortgage approvals report should set the tone for pound trading during the U.K. session. The report is expected to show an improvement from 31.2 to 32.8.

JPY

The Japanese yen made a strong rally in yesterday’s trading after the Nikkei stock index slumped by 7.3%. This pushed USD/JPY to test the 101.00 major psychological support before rebounding up to 102.50. Analysts attribute the drop to a major correction in the markets and risk aversion, although the uptrend on USD/JPY remains intact. There are no major reports due from Japan today but Governor Kuroda is slated to deliver a speech within the trading day.

CHF

The Swissy had a choppy trading day yesterday as it retreated from its recent gains then made a strong rebound. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today so USD/CHF trading could depend mostly on U.S. data.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies staged a nice rebound against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, boosted in part by risk appetite. Chinese manufacturing PMI came in below consensus and below the 50.0 mark, which weighed on the Australian dollar during the Asian session, but the pair was able to bounce off the .9600 level. New Zealand printed a weaker than expected trade surplus while Canada’s economic schedule remains empty.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 27, 2013)

PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2013 6:51 am
by katetrades
USD

The dollar had a mixed trading day on Friday as it lost ground to the Japanese yen and euro but managed to pocket some gains against its other major counterparts. US durable goods orders data came in better than expected, as both headline and core figures printed rebounds from the previous month’s data. Headline durable goods orders increased by 3.3%, erasing part of the previous 6.9% decline, while core durable goods orders rose by 1.3%. There are no reports from the US today as banks are on a Memorial Day holiday.

EUR

The euro is still struggling to stay above the 1.2900 level against the US dollar, as data from Germany came in stronger than expected on Friday. The German GfK consumer climate figure improved from 6.2 to 6.5 while the German IFO business climate report printed a rise from 104.4 to 105.7, higher than the estimated increase to 104.6. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound continued to climb slowly against the US dollar on Friday, despite weaker than expected BBA mortgage approvals from the UK. The housing loan report showed a 32.2K reading, down from the estimated 32.7K figure but still better than the recent 31.4K reading. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The Swiss franc took advantage of dollar weakness on Friday as USD/CHF slid lower to the .9600 major psychological support. There were no reports released from Switzerland then and none are due today, which suggests that USD/CHF might be stuck in consolidation for the next trading sessions.

JPY

The Japanese yen staged another strong rally on Friday as the Nikkei index chalked up another drop. The selloff in equities is currently supporting the yen as traders are selling stocks in exchange for the yen. However, the USD/JPY pair is likely to rebound as the BOJ has made no changes to its easing policy while the Fed is mulling an exit to its stimulus program. The minutes of the latest BOJ meeting were released in today’s Asian session.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies continue to test key levels (0.9600 for AUD/USD and .8100 for NZD/USD) as markets await further catalysts. There are no major reports from the comdolls this week, except for the BOC rate decision and Canadian monthly GDP release.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Major Forex Currencies Outlook (May 28, 2013)

PostPosted: Tue May 28, 2013 6:51 am
by katetrades
USD

U.S. traders are back in the grind today, after taking a day off in honor of Memorial Day. The U.S. will be printing its CB consumer confidence report for May and possibly show a strong rise in optimism. The reading is slated to increase from 68.1 to 70.7 for the month, which should provide strong support for the dollar and the U.S. economy as well. After all, consumers have been driving most of the country’s economic activity and an improvement in confidence could be indicative of more spending later on.

EUR

More liquidity for euro pairs is expected today as U.K. and U.S. traders are back on their trading desks. The only report due from the euro zone is the German import prices data, which shouldn’t have such a huge impact on EUR/USD or EUR/JPY. With that, keep close tabs on market sentiment and U.S. data as these could dictate price action across the board.

GBP

U.K. traders are back from their Spring Bank holiday today, which means there could be bigger price movements among pound pairs. There are no economic releases from the U.K. but monetary policy committee member and Deputy Governor Paul Tucker is set to give a testimony. If the central bank official drops hints on the BOE’s future monetary policy moves, it could send the pound rallying or dropping, depending on what he says.

CHF

Swiss employment data is on tap for today and the report is estimated to show a drop from 4.12 million to 4.11 million for the first quarter of the year. If so, that would mark the first drop in employment for the past five quarters, which could be negative for the franc. Otherwise, the franc might have a chance at holding on to its recent levels or even pocketing some gains. Take note that the Swiss trade balance is also up for release today.

JPY

The Nikkei has been able to get back on its feet for today’s Asian session, allowing USD/JPY to climb as well. There are no major reports due from Japan, as yen pairs could take their cue from market sentiment today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies edged slightly lower against the U.S. dollar as commodity prices declined on Monday. AUD/USD is currently testing the key .9600 support while NZD/USD is sitting close to .8000. There are no major reports due from these commodity-dependent economies today, which suggests that they could stay sensitive to commodity price action and market sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 29, 2013)

PostPosted: Wed May 29, 2013 8:45 am
by katetrades
USD

The U.S. dollar was supported by stronger than expected consumer confidence data in yesterday’s New York session. The CB consumer sentiment figure came in higher than the estimate as it jumped from an upwardly revised 69.0 to 76.2, beating the consensus at 70.7. This reflects how consumers have been the backbone of U.S. economic growth, as spending comprises nearly 70% of the GDP. For today, the only event on the U.S. schedule is FOMC member Rosengren’s speech. Watch out for his remarks concerning the Fed’s plan to scale down asset purchases.

EUR

The euro was driven sharply lower in yesterday’s trading when the topic of negative deposit rates came up again. It didn’t help that German import prices fell more than expected, chalking up a 1.4% decline instead of the estimated 0.2% decline. For today, Germany will print its preliminary CPI and employment change report, and these should have a huge impact on euro trading since Germany is seen to be the economy responsible for most of the growth in the euro zone.

GBP

The pound gave way to U.S. dollar strength in yesterday’s trading as GBP/USD fell back to the 1.5050 minor psychological level. MPC member Bean is set to give a testimony today while the U.K. will print its CBI realized sales report. Downbeat remarks, combined with a weak sales figure, could drive the pound even lower. CBI realized sales are projected to improve from -1 to 4, which might provide support for GBP/USD.

CHF

Swiss data was mixed yesterday as the trade balance disappointed but the employment level report came in strong. The level was at 4.15 million for the first quarter of the year, higher than the 4.12 million figure posted for the last quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Swiss trade surplus narrowed from 1.89 billion CHF to 1.73 billion CHF instead of widening to 2.02 billion CHF. For today, the UBS consumption indicator showed an improvement from 1.24 to 1.46. No other reports are due from Switzerland for the rest of the trading day.

JPY

The Japanese yen lost ground to most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, despite the stronger than expected retail sales report. Consumer spending is down by only 0.1% on an annual basis instead of the estimated 0.4% drop. This was also an improvement over the previous 0.3% year-on-year decline. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies lost ground to the Greenback once more, as the U.S. printed strong economic data yesterday. AUD/USD has broken below the key .9600 support while USD/CAD bounced from 1.0350. NZD/USD remains perched above the .8000 mark, waiting for more catalysts. The BOC rate decision is scheduled in today’s New York session and this should spark some volatility for USD/CAD. Take note that this is Carney’s last rate statement as BOC head so no changes are expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (May 30, 2013)

PostPosted: Thu May 30, 2013 8:23 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar continued to slide against its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading sessions as markets seemed to show exhaustion from its recent rallies. Fed official Rosengren’s speech was probably the highlight of the New York session yesterday and even if he did say that he supported a modest reduction of asset purchases in a few months, it wasn’t enough to spark a fresh round of dollar buying. For today, the U.S. will be printing its preliminary GDP reading for the first quarter of the year and no revisions from the advanced reading of 2.5% is expected. Initial jobless claims and housing sector data could also drive dollar action today.

EUR

The OECD lowered its global growth forecasts, citing Europe as one of the major drags to overall economic growth. German data came in mixed yesterday, with a stronger than expected inflation figure and a weaker than expected jobs report. German CPI increased by 0.4% while unemployment grew by 21K, much higher than the estimated 4K increase in joblessness. Only medium-tier reports, namely the retail PMI and Italian bond auction outcome, are due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The U.K. printed a weaker than expected CBI realized sales figure as the reading slipped from -1 to -11 instead of improving to 4. However, GBP/USD still managed to rebound off its recent lows and climb back to the 1.5150 area earlier today. Only the Nationwide HPI is due from the UK in today’s London session and this report isn’t expected to have a material effect on pound price action.

JPY

The yen rallied against its counterparts once more, bringing USD/JPY back to the 101.00 region. No reports are due from Japan today, as traders could position themselves ahead of the CPI figures due tomorrow. Both Tokyo and the national level are projected to show declines in price levels but smaller ones compared to the previous period.

CHF

Swiss UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.24 to 1.46, lending strong support to the franc. USD/CHF fell back to the .9600 area as a result. Today’s Swiss GDP release could determine whether this level would hold, as the economy is expected to have grown by another 0.2% in the first quarter of the year.

Commodity Currencies

The commodity currencies were able to recover against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading as most traders took profits off key levels, such as .9600 for AUD/USD. The BOC retained its relatively hawkish bias as it said that some modest withdrawal of stimulus might be needed. Australian building approvals came in strong at 9.1% but private capital expenditure posted a 4.7% quarterly drop.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 4, 2013)

PostPosted: Tue Jun 04, 2013 8:06 am
by katetrades
USD

The U.S. dollar suffered a sharp selloff in yesterday’s trading when the ISM manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected. The actual figure showed a contractionary reading of 49.0, worse than the estimated decline from 50.7 to 50.6. Only the trade balance is due from the U.S. today and a wider deficit is expected, showing that imports outpaced exports for the month.

EUR

The euro landed back above the 1.3000 mark against the dollar yesterday, with the pair even reaching 1.3100. Better than expected manufacturing PMI from Spain and Italy helped boost the euro, but EUR/USD’s strong move came after the US printed a bleak ISM manufacturing PMI figure. For today, only the Spanish unemployment change report is due and it’s expected to show a decline in joblessness.

GBP

The pound chalked up even more gains against the U.S. dollar yesterday, as the UK manufacturing PMI came in much better than estimated. The figure climbed from 50.2 to 51.3, instead of rising to just 50.3. The construction PMI is due from the UK today and it’s estimated to improve from 49.4 to 49.7, with a good chance of an upside surprise.

CHF

USD/CHF tested the broken support at .9600 yesterday and dipped even lower when the US manufacturing figures came out. SVME PMI turned out stronger than expected at 52.2, stronger than the estimated improvement from 50.2 to 50.9. For today, the Swiss calendar is empty, which suggests that USD/CHF could take its cue from U.S. data.

JPY

The Nikkei suffered another strong selloff yesterday, leading USD/JPY to test the 99.50 former support. It didn’t help that US data was weaker than expected. Japanese monetary base increased by 31.6%, which means that there’s much more liquidity in the economy, while the average cash earnings came in short at 0.3% instead of the estimated 0.6% rise. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The commodity currencies recovered against the U.S. dollar in yesterday’s trading, with AUD/USD climbing back above .9700 and NZD/USD recovering above .8000. The RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but said that there’s room for more rate cuts and that the Australian dollar is still overvalued. Canada will release its trade balance today and a deficit of 0.4 billion CAD is expected.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 5, 2013)

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2013 10:38 am
by katetrades
USD

The U.S. dollar had a mixed day in the markets, as it managed to rally against the commodity currencies and the yen but held steady against most European currencies. Only the trade balance was released from the U.S. yesterday and this came out better than expected, as the deficit widened from 37.1 billion USD to 40.3 billion USD instead of 41.1 billion USD. For today, the U.S. is set to print its ADP non-farm employment change figure and its ISM non-manufacturing PMI. The ADP report could show a 171K increase in private payrolls while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is slated to improve from 53.1 to 53.4. However, weaker than expected data could be negative for the dollar, as these might imply that the U.S. recovery isn’t that strong yet.

EUR

The euro managed to stay above the 1.3000 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading as Spain’s unemployment change figure came in better than expected. Euro zone’s third largest economy chalked up a 98.3K drop in joblessness for May. For today, the euro zone will be releasing services PMI from Spain and Italy. Both countries printed better than expected results for their manufacturing sector earlier this week so there’s a chance that services data could beat expectations as well.

GBP

Despite the better than expected construction PMI figure, the pound’s gains were limited below the 1.5300 handle against the dollar yesterday. Construction PMI climbed from 49.4 to 50.8 for May, showing that the sector returned to growth after months of consecutive contractions. Services PMI is up for release from the U.K. today and a better than expected reading could give the pound a stronger boost above 1.5300. The reading is projected to climb from 52.9 to 53.1.

CHF

USD/CHF moved sideways in yesterday’s trading because of the lack of market catalysts from both the US and Switzerland. The pair cruised around the .9475 handle for almost the entire trading day. There are no major reports from Switzerland today so USD/CHF is likely to take its cues from U.S. data, which are the ADP non-farm employment change and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

Commodity currencies lost against the dollar in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD fell back below the .9700 handle and NZD/USD dipped to .7900. The Australian economy printed weaker than expected growth of 0.6% versus the estimated 0.8% expansion, causing AUD/USD to weaken in the Asian session. Canada is set to print its building permits today and possibly show a 2.3% decline.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Forex Major CurrenMajor Currencies Outlook (June 26, 2

PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:44 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar had some trouble sustaining its gains recently, despite stronger than expected data from the US. This may have been a result of an improvement in risk sentiment, which helped lift the higher-yielding currencies against the Greenback. The CB consumer confidence figure posted another record high, as it climbed from 74.3 to 81.4, higher than the estimated 75.2 reading. Meanwhile, new home sales improved from 466K to 476K, higher than the consensus at 462K. Durable goods orders were up by 3.6% and the core version of the report printed a 0.7% uptick instead of staying flat for the month. Today, only the US final GDP figure for the first quarter of the year is set for release, and no revisions are expected from the 2.4% reading.

EUR

The euro was barely able to benefit from ECB head Draghi’s speech, as the central bank governor focused on the existing challenges in the euro zone region. German GfK consumer confidence data is on tap for today and a small improvement from 6.5 to 6.6 is expected. A weaker than expected reading could push EUR/USD deeper below the 1.3100 major psychological level.

GBP

Cable managed to keep its head above the 1.5400 mark in yesterday’s trading, as UK data didn’t disappoint. BBA mortgage approvals rose by 36.1K while the CBI realized sales climbed from -11 to 1, as expected. The events on today’s schedule include BOE Governor King’s speech, the BOE financial stability review, and the government spending review. Given the recent improvement in public sector borrowing, upbeat remarks could be in the cards. If that’s the case, the pound could have a chance at holding on to its recent gains.

CHF

There have been no major reports on Switzerland’s calendar recently, which explains why USD/CHF has been slowly climbing up the charts. The UBS consumption indicator has just been released and it showed an improvement from 1.43 to 1.46, revealing that consumer-based indicators were better in May. No other reports are due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The Japanese yen rebounded against most of its major counterparts recently, as USD/JPY tested 97.00 while EUR/JPY found resistance around 128.00. There have been no major releases from Japan over the past 24 hours and none are due for the next trading sessions, suggesting that yen pairs could move to the tune of risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar recovered slightly against the Greenback yesterday when the People’s Bank of China tried to reassure markets that a credit crunch won’t take place in China. AUD/USD climbed to the 0.9300 area while NZD/USD held on to the .7750 mark. As for USD/CAD, the pair continued to rally to the 1.0500 mark. No reports are due from the comdoll economies, other than the New Zealand trade balance in the next Asian session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 27, 2013)

PostPosted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:27 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar lost ground to some of its major counterparts in yesterday’s trading as the US Q1 2013 final GDP figure suffered a huge downward revision from 2.4% to just 1.8%. This led market participants to worry that the US economy would do even worse when the stimulus measures are reduced. Up ahead, the core PCE price index and personal income and spending data are due. The Fed is watching inflation closely and it is rumored that the core PCE price index is their preferred measure. Meanwhile, the consumer sector is seen to be the backbone of growth in the US so improved personal spending and income figures could provide support for the dollar.

EUR

The euro weakened again in yesterday’s trading, as ECB President Draghi reiterated that the ECB is ready to adjust monetary policy if necessary. However, the GfK consumer climate did show an improvement from 6.5 to 6.8, showing that consumer confidence is still doing well in euro zone’s largest economy. For today, the biggest mover on euro zone’s schedule is the German unemployment change report which could show a 7K increase in joblessness. This is lower than the previous 21K rise in unemployment, suggesting that there is some recovery in the German labor market.

GBP

The pound sold off heavily against its counterparts when the BOE financial stability report showed that there is a huge danger posed by the volatility in bond yields. Apparently, the central bank believes that this points to a potential increase in borrowing costs, which would make mortgages more expensive. In addition, the UK government announced a fresh batch of spending cuts in its recent spending review. An additional 11.5 billion GBP in austerity measures, which includes the removal of the automatic annual salary increase for public sector workers and caps on welfare spending, would be implemented starting 2015. Current account and final GDP figures are due from the UK today.

CHF

The Swiss franc continued to weaken against the Greenback, as USD/CHF broke above the .9400 handle. Only the SNB quarterly bulletin is on tap from Switzerland today and it isn’t likely to cause a huge move among franc pairs.

JPY

The yen regained strength against most of its major counterparts as risk aversion came into play yesterday. However, USD/JPY managed to hold on to the 97.80 area while GBP/JPY is currently trading below 150.00. There are no major reports due from Japan today as traders await the release of Japanese inflation reports for tomorrow.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed to sneak in some gains yesterday, as AUD/USD tested the .9300 area while USD/CAD retreated from 1.0500. This recovery was spurred by a drop in Chinese interbank lending rates, squashing fears that a credit crunch is taking place. In Australia, Prime Minister Julia Gillard was ousted by rival Kevin Rudd. No major reports are due from these economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 28, 2013)

PostPosted: Fri Jun 28, 2013 5:44 am
by katetrades
USD

The US dollar dominated the day’s price action once more, as strong economic data boosted the currency against its counterparts. The initial jobless claims printed better than expected results while the core PCE price index, which is considered to be the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed a 0.1% increase. In addition, personal income and spending both posted gains. Speeches by Fed officials showed that they support the central bank’s plans to taper stimulus at the end of the year but reiterated that this is still dependent on data. For today, the Chicago PMI and the revised UoM consumer sentiment index are due. Strong figures could continue to lift the US dollar.

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady above the 1.3000 major psychological level in yesterday’s trading sessions. German unemployment declined by 12,000 effectively bringing the unemployment rate from 6.9% to 6.8%. This was better than the estimated increase of 8,000 in joblessness. For today, German retail sales are due and an upside surprise could be likely, given the improvement in its labor market. German preliminary inflation is also on tap and an increase of 1.7% is expected.

GBP

GBP/USD edged close to the 1.5200 major psychological support in yesterday’s trading, before bouncing back above 1.5250. The UK current account was weaker than expected as it showed a larger deficit of 14.5 billion GBP instead of the estimated 11.9 billion GBP deficit. Only the Nationwide HPI is set for release from the UK and an increase of 0.4% in house prices is expected.

CHF

The Swiss franc posted huge losses against the euro while it struggled to hold steady against the dollar around .9450. The SNB quarterly bulletin emphasized the points made during the central bank’s monetary policy decision earlier during the month. For today, the KOF economic barometer is due and it is expected to improve from 1.10 to 1.21, indicating a better economic outlook for the next six months.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its major counterparts during the European and US sessions, although it did show signs of strength during the Asian session. There were mixed reports released from Japan earlier today, as the Tokyo CPI came in line with expectations while retail sales beat expectations. However, unemployment ticked higher for the month to 4.1%. No other reports are due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies fought hard to stay afloat against the US dollar, as AUD/USD climbed back above the .9300 handle briefly while NZD/USD moved sideways. Canada is set to print its monthly GDP report and show a 0.1% economic expansion for May. A weaker than expected report could push USD/CAD higher up the charts.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way