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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:25 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

USDJPY continues to rally

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The so called Trump rally has been ongoing for USD dollar bulls in recent times, and this can be very clearly seen on the USDJPY, as the market has done an about turn and is currently seeking risk than the previous attempt to hedge its bets. So far the rapid ascent of the USDJPY has been something that the Bank of Japan will be happy with, as the market continues to scrutinise the Japanese economy and its ability to generate inflation. Abenomics might have had a struggle but the recent Trump change in the US economy might be the helping hand it so needs to get ahead. Despite the drop today in Core CPI to 0.1% (0.2% exp) and the Philly fed manufacturing index dipping lower; the market continued to rally on the basis that unemployment claims were better than expected. As the market continues to believe that Trump will look to spend and stimulate the economy, especially around the areas of infrastructure.

For the USDJPY the bull rally has been strong and any admission of running of steam looks off the cards for the time being as it continues to charge forward. The only question is will it pause and there are some strong resistance levels on the horizon. So far 111.843 is likely to be the first major level for the USDJPY as it climbs higher, but I would also look even further to 114.030 for the next level of resistance. Any pull backs on the chart are likely to play of the 20 day moving average which is closely following the bullish movements that we have seen. If we do see a breakthrough of the 20 day moving and an ABC pattern forming I would expect a bounce to occur around support at 109.147 at this stage. Unless we see higher highs over the next few days.

The Australian economy is struggling at present after the recent Reserve Bank of Australia comments it comes a slight surprise, but the unemployment figures were much worse than expected coming in at 9.8k (16k exp). I've voiced concern over Australian unemployment figures as they have shown temporary jobs taking centre stage and this does not equal a strong economy at the end of the day. But for now the unemployment rate has remained static at 5.6% which will be somewhat of a positive sign. However, going forward the AUDUSD will struggle as the USD strengthens and Australia's economy shows signs of weakness.

On the charts the bears are firmly in control of the AUDUSD as it dips down the charts being chased by the 20 and 50 day moving average. Right now with the current speed of movement and the volatility the only stable support level possible is looking like 0.7328 and 0.7226. The question is now how long can the bears take control before the Trump euphoria wears off. But in reality it may be a case of only just getting started as he has not even come to power yet.



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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:54 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Markets consolidate as Trump reality sinks in

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Global stocks were noticeable mixed during trading on Monday as bullish investors took a break from the Trump fueled market rally. Asian shares casually floated between losses and gains, pressured by a resurgent Dollar and rising US rate hike expectations that could spark further outflows from emerging markets. European stocks were contaminated by the lack of direction in Asia with the absence of momentum potentially trickling into Wall Street later today. It is becoming clear that market participants have digested the Trump reality with most waiting for further news relating to Trump's economic team which could provide additional clarity on how he plans to lead the U.S economy.

Dollar bulls unstoppable

The market shaking Dollar appreciation has highlighted how the combination of Trump’s presidential triumph and heightened hopes of a US rate hike in December can provide the foundation needed for bulls to attack incessantly. Sentiment towards the Dollar is extremely bullish and the optimism towards Donald Trump’s presidency bolstering US economic growth has ensured the greenback remains buoyed. With economic data in the States repeatedly pointing to economic stability and Fed officials all singing a similar hawkish chorus, the Dollar has become a buyers dream. Much attention may be directed towards Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes which could provide the final piece of clarity needed to cement expectations of a US rate increase in December.

From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Previous resistance around 100.50 could transform into a solid support which could provide bulls encouragement to send prices back towards 102.00.

Sterling bears here to stay

The ongoing Brexit episode may have irritated traders with the battle of words between financial heavyweights on how to handle the hard Brexit scenario adding to the nasty cocktail of uncertainty. Sterling remains heavily weighed down by this anchor known as Brexit with steeper declines expected if buying sentiment towards the currency continues to deteriorate. With expectations rising over the Fed raising US rates in December, the bearish combination of Sterling weakness and Dollar strength could spark a sharp decline on the GBPUSD. The weekly close below 1.240 on the GBPUSD may have sealed the deal for bears to drag prices lower towards 1.220.

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WTI commences the week positively

WTI Crude staged a miraculous rebound during trading on Monday with prices rallying to $47 as expectations were revived over OPEC members securing a freeze deal at the November 30th formal meeting. Comments from Iran’s oil ministers and Russian President Vladimir Putin on their optimism of OPEC agreeing to a proposed supply cut coupled with the Trump effect has renewed some investor attraction towards oil. While the abrupt short-term gains are undeniably impressive, WTI still remains dogged by the overwhelming oversupply woes. The current technical bounce could act as an opportunity for sellers to pounce if OPEC repeats the events of Doha at the formal November meeting.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The EURUSD descended deeper into the abyss last week with prices closing below 1.060 as a dovish Draghi coupled with concerns revolving around political instability in Europe swiftly haunted investor attraction towards the Euro. Expectations remain elevated over the ECB extending its monetary policy amid the uncertainty while a strengthening Dollar from rising US rate hike expectations continues to enforce downside pressures on the EURUSD. Mario Draghi is due to testify before the European Parliament in Strasbourg today with any further dovish hints potentially leaving the Euro vulnerable to further losses. From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD is heavily bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Previous support around 1.075 could transform into a dynamic resistance which could re-open a path back below 1.060.


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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:48 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Trump hawks help push equities

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The US political shake up has been polarising markets as of late, and none more so that in the Federal Reserve as there are 3 governors seats up for grabs on the FED board this year and it looks extremely likely that Trump will look to fill them all with hawks. The question will be how big will the impact be, many believe they will look to spend up heavily in infrastructure in the United States which will in turn lead to the US market rallying further and the USD jumping higher. The trade issues though are the black mark for many, and with Trump threatening them the flow over effects in to the FX and equity markets are likely to be great. For the equity markets though it's certainly a boost as many expect that US based companies will be the greatest benefactor as Trump is pro business and looking to stimulate the economy. So far the S&P 500 has seen some strong rallying and it was further helped by the news out of OPEC today, and during the last part of the year we traditionally see some further buying before the new year rolls over.

The S&P 500 has so far struggled to maintain momentum past 2200, as it represents a psychological barrier for the market. For the next level of resistance I would expect the market to look for another level and this would be likely found at 2250. Support would likely be found at 2200 as well in the event it breaks out and looks to find some safety, with 2168 the next level of support. I would also be watching the 20 day moving average as this has previously been a key area for dynamic support for past movements.

It's easy to forget the other parts of the world with the current market climate that we have today, but for the Australian dollar it has been a bumpy ride, and this even comes in the face of commodity prices rising recently. The Australian dollar had been causing headaches for the Reserve Bank of Australia given how high it has been in recent times and the recent rate cuts were meant to remedy that. However, as ever the case the markets have not agreed and the AUD had remained quite high. The recent political moves have in turn caused the USD to rise and the AUD to slip lower on the charts, and many are expecting further slips with the hawks likely to come to power in the FED in the USA.

For the AUDUSD it's likely looking a little bearish despite the fixed interest rates being attractive to overseas investors. The recent bounce on support at 0.7328 has shown that the bulls are still in the market, but only at certain opportunities. Any larger drops will likely be to 0.7226 where it would struggle to find any further movements unless there was a strong sell-off in the AUD.


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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 4:00 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

NZ economy lifts on better than expected trade balance data

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The New Zealand economy has been positive so far today after the recent trade balance data came out and was stronger than expected at -846M (-950M) this was lead in part by stronger than exported exports coming in at 3.90B (3.75B). It's likely that after the recent natural disaster that the New Zealand economy will see some GDP growth as spending picks up sharply in the wake of it all to repair everything over the next few years. It will be interesting to see how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reacts in the coming months, and if inflation picks up in line with all the spending that is predicted.

So far the NZDUSD on the chart continues to find heavy pressure by the bears as they look to push it lower on the back of USD strength. So far the NZDUSD has managed to find strong support at 0.6994 and the market is continuing to see if it can find itself below the psychological barrier level at 0.70. Further support levels lower are likely to be found at 0.6948 and 0.6888 as the market looks to drift lower. However, if the market were to turn upwards they would find resistance at 0.7030 and 0.7060, but given the current market sentiment which is bearish towards all commodity currencies it seems less likely to happen than the bears clawing their way down further.

The Canadian dollar has also been one of the radar of traders with the recent movements in the oil markets and the likelihood that OPEC may in fact sign a deal in the short term. However with Iran and Iraq not agreed and American oil drillers likely to keep pumping at full capacity, it could be some time off before we actually see a rise in oil, and in turn a rise in oil prices which many have been predicting. For the Canadian dollar this means it's unlikely to fight back against the USD movements that we have been seeing lately.

The USDCAD has been pushing up the charts on the back of the USD strength and the 50 day moving average has so far been acting as dynamic support. The market has seen some brief volatility and consolidation around the major support level of 1.3402 and this has so far held up against any bearish movements. I would anticipate that this area will likely see some further movement before the bulls look to continue on their recent run, especially as oil markets continue to show a lack of general momentum higher.



More Info @ http://www.forextime.com/market-analysis

By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:54 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Sterling shivers ahead of UK Q3 GDP

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The ongoing Brexit saga has exposed Sterling to prolonged periods of pain this year with uncertainty effectively damaging buying sentiment towards the currency. It has become quite clear that Brexit fears have left a painful scar on the Pound, with weakness becoming the new norm as anxiety repels investor attraction. Much attention may be directed towards the latest third quarter GDP revision which most expect to come in unchanged at 0.5% on a quarterly basis and 2.3% annually. While the unchanged GPD figures could point to some economic stability, concerns still remain elevated over the Brexit outcome diminishing business investment and consequently pressuring the vulnerable Sterling further.

Sterling/Dollar has been a major loser this year with the pair closing negative every month post Brexit. This pair remains heavily bearish on the daily timeframe with a resurgent Dollar reviving the parity dream. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the downside. A decisive breakdown below 1.240 could trigger a steeper decline lower towards 1.220.

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EURUSD parity dream…

The heightened fears over diminishing Eurozone growth coupled with ongoing political instability in Europe have left the Euro extremely vulnerable to losses. Sentiment remains firmly bearish towards the EUR with steeper declines expected as speculators bet over the European Central Bank extending its QE program at December’s policy meeting. The bearish combination of Euro weakness and a resurgent Dollar could ensure the parity dream on the EURUSD becomes a reality in the medium to longer term. From a technical standpoint, prices are bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Previous support around 1.065 could transform into a dynamic resistance which encourages a steeper decline lower towards 1.050.


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Oil under pressure again

WTI Crude edged lower on Friday with prices sinking towards $47.40 as expectations fluctuated over OPEC securing a meaningful freeze deal at next week’s formal meeting in Vienna. The persistent discussions over major oil producers cooperating to fight the oversupply woes have provided oil a temporary lifeline but fear still linger over the success of any OPEC deal. Many investors will be paying attention to how the cartel solves this classical prisoner’s dilemma which may dictate where oil concludes this year. The overall sentiment towards Oil still remains bearish with another OPEC let down sparking a sharp selloff towards $40.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Dollars resurgence has made Gold a sellers dream while the mounting US rate hike expectations continue to sabotage any upside gains. This metal remains under noticeable pressure with prices hovering around 9-month lows of $1170.80 as of writing. Bears remain in firm control which should encourage steeper declines in the coming weeks. Previous resistance around $1200 could transform into a dynamic resistance which encourages a steeper decline lower back below $1170.

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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:39 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Japanese data sets the tone for week

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There has been no major moves economically speaking in the market, but there is plenty on the horizon and markets will shortly be focused on data out of Japan with household spending likely to be the main focus. Japan's ability to spend has been sharply in the microscope under Abenomics as he tries to break the culture of saving and push Japanese to be more consumer friendly with their cash to boost GDP but also to help increase tax revenue. It's likely that the market will be looking for weaker numbers here and expecting the market to rally further against the Yen, which has recently clawed back some ground against the USD.

Technically speaking the USDJPY ran out of steam at resistance at 114, as the market started to unwind some of its positions to take profit. Since then we have also seen it push down to support at 111.843 before failing to find any further legs for the bears, this is a bullish signal for the most part and the market may look to restart further moves higher as a result. If we did see further drops I would expect the 20 day moving average to finally play catch up and act as dynamic support for the USDJPY. Expectations around the bulls breaking higher will find the next level of resistance at 116.591.

On Thursday I spoke about the Canadian dollar and it continues to struggle to find any ground other than through the current OPEC meetings. There is however a number of Canadian economic events on the horizon which will have some impact, and I am expecting this to flow onto the market. It will be hard to beat the current USD strength though without some sort of major data boost or an OPEC deal (a struggle at this time). Certainly with the Trump dollar in full force and markets looking forward not backwards the USDCAD could certainly still remain in the territory of the bulls for the time being.

The obvious correlation between oil and the CAD has so far helped it not further erode anymore ground to the USD and support at 1.3402 continues to be a major level which has prevented further drops on the charts. One thing that is worth noticing is the 50 day moving average which is creeping up the charts and looking very imposing as a possible catalyst for dynamic support, after future touches on the daily chart were met with strong buying. In the even the bulls do manage to regain control the market is likely to jump back up to 1.3542, but with the USDCAD long term horizons always need to be careful as the pair is known to range.


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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:57 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Moment of Truth for OPEC, be ready for volatility ahead

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Everybody wants a deal, but not everyone is willing to participate in making one. This is how it currently feels with just 24 hours before ministers from OPEC meet to reveal their strategy for ending a 3-year global supply glut. Iran and Iraq remain to be the major obstacle to any meaningful production cut, and Saudi’s energy minister comments on Sunday that the market would balance itself in 2017 even if producers did not intervene brings more pessimism and doubts than hopefulness over the long-term outlook.

Although it might be true that markets will rebalance in 2017 whether a production cut is reached or not, oil bears are just waiting for a signal to push the sell button, and 15% decline towards $40 looks very reasonable incase no significant deal was reached. However, markets still believe that a production cut of 500,000 to 1 million barrel per day is achievable tomorrow and this explains Monday’s price action where both major benchmarks rose by more than 2%.

A meaningful deal is required more than ever as GCC economies fiscal deficits continues to widen and lower public spending is weighing heavily on growth, but given the political differences between OPEC members there’s a high chance we’ll end up with only a face saver deal.

Traders should be prepared for a volatile session ahead with many headlines to hit the wires in the next 24 hours and this volatility will spread beyond oil to equities and fixed income markets.

The dollar rally coming to an end?

Profit taking and mild declines in U.S. treasury yields pulled back the U.S. dollar slightly from its 13-year highs. Most of the sell-off was seen against the Japanese Yen which recovered almost 1.5% from its lowest levels since February. Monday brought the question on whether the rally on the U.S. dollar was over, or it’s only a slight correction before it resumes the uptrend? To answer this question, we need to know what is the Fed thinking of. Will they raise rates in December and wait longer for a second hike? Or a series of hikes will be projected for 2017? A couple of Fed presidents are scheduled to speak this week, and if they indicate that tighter monetary policy is needed in 2017 the dollar rally will likely resume, if no guidance is given then traders should rely on economic data, specifically Friday’s non-farms payroll. However, any declines in U.S. dollar are likely to be minor especially against the Euro and the Pound given that many political tensions are likely to hit the Euro Area in the next couple of weeks.



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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA)

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:48 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

OPEC talks look set to falter

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OPEC has dominated headlines today and with good cause, as the once former oil monopoly continues to struggle with internal politics in an effort to alter the current price of oil by cutting production and supply all together. There is only one problem... the rest of the world continues to pump oil outside of OPEC, and the various OPEC members are suffering from low prices so much that cutting production may not actually support them at all. It has so far got to the point where some pundits are calling the odds of an OPEC deal even happening at 50/50, my guess would be to put this figure much lower given the politics at play and how unlikely Iran is to enable any production freeze at all. So where to for oil markets from here? It's likely that markets will shift their focus back on US oil inventories data again as the main catalyst for movement and also focusing on global growth as a sign of a pick-up in the market.

So where to now if the OPEC talks break down on the charts. My focus would likely be on the key support level of $42.00 at this stage, given that the market has rushed down to that level before and will look for some sort of land in the sand, failing that the next support level down could be found just below this around the $40.00 psychological level. While it's easy to play levels it's important to realise this is politically driven so the patterns will only support movements that depend on the OPEC deal and right now the market is predicting the talks might indeed fail, and cause Saudi Arabia to flood the market in any case.

The US markets however continue to find strength from the economic data with recent figures out today on consumer confidence lifting to 107.1 (exp 101.2), this was a strong result when you compare the previous months reading of 98.6 and shows that consumers are looking to spend in the build up to Christmas. Preliminary GDP q/q also lifted to 3.2% (3.0% exp), and this is in-line with the expectations around Trump and the infrastructure building that is expected to take place over the next 4 years of his term to boost the American economy.

The S&P 500 has benefited the most from the recent movements and its lift up the charts should come as no surprise as the hawks are back in play, but also there is a look for government to spend. At present the S&P 500 has pushed through the 2200 market and at present using this level as support before looking to push higher. Market expectations are that 2250 is likely to be on the cards in the short term given the optimism from a business standpoint in the US economy, but also based on the fact the USD continues to strengthen making it cheaper for US businesses to operate. Any further drops on the chart are likely to find support though on the 20 day moving average and I would expect this to play a big part if we do find any bears still present.


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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:15 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

It’s all about OPEC

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A strong feeling of anxiety has gripped the financial markets this week with investor jitters rising as uncertainty over OPEC securing a meaningful freeze deal in today’s Vienna meeting weighs heavily on global sentiment. The many anomalies revolving around the deal continues to send ominous warnings while repeatedly conflicting reports of major oil producers cooperating and debating have left most market participants on edge. With the cartels credibility hanging on a thin line and the oversupply concerns intensifying by the day, OPEC has more to lose than gain from failing to secure a deal but can major producers decipher this logic? While there still remains a thick layer of uncertainty over today’s OPEC outcome, it may be certain that Oil is exposed to explosive levels of volatility as investors systematically offload and reload positions to be in the winning trade.

WTI Crude is heavily pressured on the daily time frame and a breakdown below $45 could open a path lower towards $43. A failure to secure an effective deal today could ensure oil remains depressed for prolonged periods with price levels below $35 becoming a reality in the medium to longer term.

US ADP report in focus

The Greenback edged slightly lower on Tuesday with the Dollar Index hovering above 101.00 as investors took profit ahead of Wednesday’s heavily anticipated OPEC meeting. With expectations cemented over the Federal Reserve raising US rates in December, bullish investors still remain in control with the Dollar expected to remain buoyed. Some attention may be directed towards the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which should act as an appetizer ahead of Friday’s NFP report. A strong ADP may encourage bulls to propel the Greenback higher during trading today.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The Euro continues to be battered by the painful combination of Eurozone growth concerns and fears of political instability in Italy. Tuesday’s positive stance from the ECB pledging to buy more Italian bonds post Italian referendum did little to quell the downside pressures on the EURUSD with bears exploiting this opportunity to send prices lower. Mario Draghi is due to speak about the future of the European economy in Madrid today with any dovish hints of extending QE in December enticing bears to attack. A resurgent Dollar amid the heightened US rate hike expectations could ensure the EURUSD concludes the year in losses.

From a technical standpoint, prices are bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. A breakdown back below 1.060 could open a path lower towards 1.050.


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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2016 3:35 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

NZD dips on trade index data

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In recent days the NZD has managed to find itself in a bit of resurgence up the charts against the USD as positioned were unwound and people were looking for some positives out of the NZ economy. The bulls today have suffered a minor set-back as they look to climb they charts with the NZ trade index coming in much weaker than anticipated at -1.8% q/q (0.0% exp). This drop in the trade index has been lead by lower commodity prices at the farm gate and continues the trend in the last five quarters of a drop. The flow on effects to the economy at this stage are estimated to be substantial especially with the fixed income traders who have instead turned their attention back at the USD as it looks likely the NZ economy will have to sustain low interest rates for some time.

The NZDUSD managed to fight back today but stalled briefly at the 100 day moving average, however it managed to quickly jump higher before the bears took a big swipe and have since pushed it back down aggressively on the chart. It has so far stopped just short of the 0.7061 support level as the market is once again frets with the idea of looking to push lower and take on the 70 cent psychological barrier. The hard level of support and floor that seems to be appearing is likely to be found flat on 0.6994, with multiple tests coming at this level. At present the 200 day moving average is also acting as dynamic resistance and I would expect it to continue to hold out against movements higher in the marketplace.

Lastly oil has certainly made its mark today as OPEC stunned the vast majority of investors by actually coming to some sort of agreement. In the process though it did kick out Indonesia and then redistribute its supply amongst the members, which in turn has lead to this large rush, but not as big as one might expect. The next thing many are looking for is if the non OPEC countries like Russia look to actually play ball and cut back production as well in an effort to bolster prices further. Certainly there is still a glut of oil in the world, and something does need to happen for it disappear.

Chart wise WTI oil has so far been looking strong with the bulls and rushed up to the $50 dollar a barrel mark before retreating slightly. Resistance for going higher is likely to be found at 49.80 and I would expect the market to struggle past this point unless the non OPEC countries come into line with the agreement. Any falls for oil are likely to be found at 47.88 which is acting as a hard level of support in the marketplace and with the 50 day moving average hovering around this area it will be tough for traders to push past with the current situation.


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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst

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