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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:04 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

The music of Trump leading resulted in investor shock

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Recent history has once again repeated itself, and by this I mean that investors were caught completely off guard by not pricing in the reasonable possibility that Donald Trump could become the President of the United States. This is the exact same thing that happened during the EU referendum vote, when investors sided substantially towards pricing in a remain outcome and they were left in complete shock earlier in trading as a result of Donald Trump gaining momentum.

The beat to the drum of music that Donald Trump could win this election has got louder, resulting in chaos throughout the financial markets as a result of investor uncertainty. The markets crashed earlier in Asia trading with investors transitioning to full-on “risk off” mode as a result of the shock of Trump going into the lead.

So what has happened in the markets?

Investors moved into complete “risk off” mode with major stock markets crashing, including the Dow Jones Index losing over 600 points at one point. A period of “risk off” is bad news for the stock markets and Trump momentum is seen as dangerous news for the stock markets. It must be pointed out to investors that Donald Trump has not won the election at this point and Clinton has now taken the lead in dramatic fashion, although the markets did crash earlier in Asia as a result of investor shock.

“Risk off” basically means investor appetite towards riskier assets is diminished, meaning a massive negative for emerging market currencies. Both the Mexican Peso and Chinese Yuan weakened to record levels against the Dollar during trading so far in Asia. Why the Peso? Donald Trump is clearly anti-Mexico and Trump winning is seen as extremely bad news for the Mexican economy with this resulting in the Peso nosedive as a result of Trump momentum.

While Donald Trump has also displayed some very negative views on China in the past, as he has done with a multitude of other matters to be honest, it is possible that the swing towards Trump did contribute towards the offshore Renminbi hitting another record-low against the Dollar. The USDCNH crashed through 6.80 but suddenly pulled back to 6.76 within minutes, before later consolidating around 6.79.

This move was probably manipulated by election nerves sending investors flying away from riskier assets, but we can’t rule out the possibility that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) might have pushed the buzzer to intervene and protect the Yuan from further losses as it reached 6.80. This is by no means confirmed, but it is one of the options that we can’t rule out of the equation.

The price of Oil has been another loser to the previous sudden twist of momentum towards Donald Trump. While this hasn’t been touched upon very much, Trump winning would have negative consequences on the price of oil. Forget about the ongoing OPEC drama, the threat of growth forecasts being downgraded at least over the short-term due to investor uncertainty in theory weakens demand for commodities like oil.

So who are traders currently favoring?

It has been proven time and time again that when there is uncertainty in the markets that the Japanese Yen proves itself as a best friend to investors and this is happening once again. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be in complete dismay if Trump pulls this off because it is going to send the USDJPY towards gravity, after already pulling back from 105 to just below 102 during trading in Asia this morning.

Safe-haven appeal for Gold is also being driven through the roof with the precious metal rallying from just above $1265 to marginally above $1320 on investor uncertainty.



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By Jameel Ahmad, VP of Corporate Development & Chief Market Analyst

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:54 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Trump triumph sparks global selloff

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Risk aversion swept across the financial markets during early trading on Wednesday after the unexpected Trump presidential victory soured investor risk appetite. Global sentiment was dealt a frightening blow with most major stocks sold off savagely as uncertainty repelled investors from riskier assets. The polls pointing to a Clinton victory were completely wrong, consequently catching participants off guard and this may come at a heavy price moving forward. With risk-off sentiment amid the Trump victory becoming a dominant theme across the board, stock markets could be left depressed for prolonged periods.

The S&P 500 futures have already slumped by as much as 5% following Trump's victory with the bearish contagion dragging European stocks 2% lower on Wednesday. Wall Street may be contaminated by the negativity with further declines expected in the coming days as the toxic combination of uncertainty and sliding oil prices provide a foundation for bears to install repeated rounds of selling. There is a strong possibility that today’s presidential results spark a fresh era of risk aversion with investors turning to safe-haven assets for protection against the pending chaos.

What a Trump victory means…

Uncertainty and Donald Trump seem to have a symbiotic relationship and this continues to weigh heavily on global sentiment. Concerns remain elevated over Trump potentially triggering a global and political disruption in a fragile financial landscape that is already entangled in a losing battle with investor anxiety. The persistent threats from Trump to discard major trade agreements have kept participants on edge, while his anti-Mexico rhetoric continues to pressure both the Peso and Mexican economy. Emerging markets may be in store for a nasty surprise moving forward as risk-off encourages another brutal selloff. Many questions remain unanswered in this sensitive period of uncertainty with more explosive movements expected as markets attempt to digest the Trump reality.

Dollar bears rampage

The Dollar experienced heavy losses during early trading on Wednesday with the Dollar Index sinking to the lows of 95.91 following the unexpected Trump presidential victory. Dollar weakness may be a recurrent theme moving forward as the awful combination of uncertainty and heightened concerns over the future of the US economy entices sellers to attack incessantly. In the aftermath of Trump’s victory, expectations have already diminished over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in December with the current odds below 50% which should pressure prices further. Despite the sharp rebound, which has taken the Dollar Index back towards 97.65 as of writing, bears remain in control with the Index sinking towards 96.00 as speculators reduce bets on a US rate hike.

Sterling scheduled for further declines

Sterling bulls received false encouragement on Wednesday with the GBPUSD lurching towards 1.2545 on the back of Dollar weakness. This technical correction simply provided a fresh opportunity for bears to install repeated rounds of selling on a currency that is heavily poisoned by hard Brexit fears. Previous talks of the high court announcing that the Brexit cannot proceed without the vote to Parliament did little to keep Sterling buoyed with further losses expected as investors come to term with the Brexit reality. The GBPUSD could be poised for steeper declines once bears conquer the 1.2350 support. From a technical standpoint, a breakdown below 1.2350 could open a path towards 1.2200.

WTI pressured by risk-off

WTI Oil fell below $44 on Wednesday as Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S presidential election sparked a wave of risk aversion. Oil prices were already pressured by the fading expectations towards OPEC securing a freeze deal in November’s meeting with this period of risk-off ensuring the commodity remains depressed. The amalgamation of oversupply woes and mounting concerns over demand diminishing amid slowing global growth could guide WTI crude back below $43. Some attention may be directed towards the pending crude oil inventories report which could send oil lower if there is a buildup in inventories.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold surged with ferocity on Wednesday as Trump’s victory triggered risk aversion which encouraged investors to frantically pile into safe-haven assets. Markets have been flooded with renewed uncertainty consequently bolstering Gold’s allure. Dollar’s weakness amid dimming US rate hike expectations always played a key part which saw Gold prices clipping the highs of $1337. Buyers could be back in town with further gains expected as the mixture of Dollar weakness and uncertainty attracts investors to safe haven assets. From a technical standpoint, Gold is bullish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A breakout and decisive close above $1308 could encourage a further incline towards $1320.


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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:26 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Markets bounce as investors accept Trump reality

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Global stocks staged an awe-inspiring rebound during late trading on Wednesday as investors came to terms with the shocking Trump presidential victory. Asian shares rallied in the early sessions of Thursday with the Nikkei lurching close to 7% as participants re-evaluated the global impacts of Donald Trump’s severely mispriced election win. European markets may receive a welcome boost from Asia’s bullish momentum and the positive domino effect could support Wall Street later today. Although the short-term gains in stocks are impressive, investors should keep diligent especially when markets have been infected by jitters. Stocks remain depressed in the medium term with steeper declines expected as uncertainty grips risk sentiment.

Dollar bulls relentless…

The Dollar appreciated with aggression on Wednesday afternoon following Donald Trump’s presidential speech which effectively eased some concerns over his economic policies. Pledges of massive U.S fiscal spending have heightened expectations of Trump implementing fiscal stimulus measures, including tax cuts which may bolster profit growth consequently boosting inflation. Dollars resurgence was also complimented by the renewed speculations of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in December that encouraged buyers to attack. This week’s aggressive Dollar rebound may be fully Trump driven with more time needed for the Greenback to find some normality.

Some attention may be directed towards Thursday’s unemployment claims report which may reinforce some expectations of a December rate increase if unemployment claims recede.

WTI bears eye $44.00

WTI Oil lurched towards $45.92 during late trading on Wednesday as markets embraced the Trump reality. This feeling was short lived on Thursday when prices sunk back towards $45 following the ongoing oversupply fears that haunted investor attraction. Oil continues to be dogged by persistent oversupply concerns while fears over slowing global growth have sparked discussions of a potential decline in demand. This terrible combination of oversupply anxieties and tepid demand concerns may be the ingredients needed for sellers to send WTI back below $40. Investors have clearly maintained a cautious stance ahead of the November 30th pending OPEC meeting with expectations periodically diminishing over a successful freeze deal. From a technical standpoint bears need to conquer $44 for a further decline towards $43.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The EURUSD was explosively volatile on Wednesday with prices whipsawing within a near 400 pip trading range and the culprit was a chaotic Dollar. With the Greenback potentially strengthening further amid renewed US rate hike expectations, the EURUSD could be exposed to steeper losses as bears install repeated rounds of selling. From a technical standpoint, prices have turned extremely bearish on the daily timeframe as the candlesticks are trading below both the 20 and 200 SMA. A decisive breakdown below 1.0900 could encourage a further selloff towards 1.0850 and potentially lower.[/SIZE]


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Commodity spotlight – Gold

The erratic movements Gold dished out on Wednesday was out of character with most investors left bewildered as the precious metal surged over $60 before crashing back down. Risk aversion amid the uncertainty should clearly support Gold but market sensitivity continues to direct investors to riskier assets consequently leaving the zero-yielding metal vulnerable to losses. Gold may maintain ground in the new trading week as participants reassess the conditions of the global financial landscape. From a technical standpoint, bulls must break back above $1285 for a further incline towards $1308.


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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:16 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Emerging market currency sell-off accelerates

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The emerging market currency sell-off has accelerated throughout trading in Asia on Friday, including the Indonesian Rupiah sinking to levels that prompted the Bank Indonesia (BI) to intervene and stabilise the market. While the Indonesian Rupiah has so far led the headlines after a plunge in currency value, the Malaysian Ringgit has also suffered from an extreme round of weakness and the offshore Chinese Yuan looks set to continue its course of hitting further historic lows against the Dollar.

While the declines seen in Asian currencies are being linked to the impact of trade throughout the continent if Donald Trump enforces protectionist trade policies, the return of expectations that the Federal Reserve will still raise US interest rates in December is strengthening the Dollar and also pressuring the emerging market currencies. If the Federal Reserve do not raise US interest rates in December as they have been preparing the markets towards for months following such a spectacular rebound in stocks after the victory by Trump, it will raise questions over credibility and concerns that they are worried about Donald Trump taking over office in January.

There is also a prolonged threat to emerging market currencies that once Donald Trump completes his inauguration early next year that he will publically encourage higher US interest rates during the course of his presidential term. While the Federal Reserve is independent to any political party or government, the expectations that Trump will encourage faster monetary policy normalization is a real threat to the emerging markets.

Overall the combination between the initial response that fiscal stimulus encouraged by Trump should provide a boost to the US economy and also encourage increased interest rates in the United States should in theory result in projections that the Dollar Index could break the psychological level at 100.


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By Jameel Ahmad, VP of Corporate Development & Chief Market Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:58 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Markets to continue adjusting to Trump’s Triumph

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Undoubtedly, last week is one to remember for years to come, not only because of Trump’s surprising victory, but the market's reaction to the new president. Instead of equity markets plummeting and bonds surging due to a new chapter of political uncertainty, stocks rallied to new records and U.S. treasury bonds declined to levels last seen in January. Investors decided not to waste time and were very fast to adjust their portfolios based on Trump’s promises of fiscal spending, cutting taxes, trade relations, and less regulations.

Here’s a summary of last week’s markets biggest moves on Trump’s Triumph

S&P 500 financial sector was up 11.33% to become the third best performing sector for the year, as steepening yield curves and anticipated regulatory relief made it investors best choice.
Industrials and health care were the second and third best performing sectors gaining 7.95% and 5.82% respectively.
Utilities “bond proxies” lost 4.08% as U.S. 10-year treasury surged from 1.83% to 2.11%.
The dollar strengthened across the board, especially against emerging markets currencies which fell the most in 5 years. The Mexican peso traded at new record low shedding 13.16% of its value since Wednesday.
Trump’s transition will remain a big factor influencing financial markets the weeks ahead especially as he starts revealing the names of people who will serve in his administration. We also have a busy economic calendar and speeches from top central bankers.

Investors are pricing in 81% chance for a rate hike in December, and Fed presidents who spoke after the election seems to be in line with the market expectations. Vice Chair, Stanley Fischer welcomed the prospect of expansionary fiscal policies and believes that the case for removing accommodation is quite strong. I think what’s more interesting than a Fed rate hike in December is to see whether the dots “which shows the interest rate projections of the 16 members of the Federal Open Market Committee” starts climbing after falling for several years.

On Thursday, we will hear from Chair Janet Yellen who will testify to the Senate’s Joint Committee. She’s likely to keep December rate hike alive as Trump’s Christmas gift.

Cable traders will also be interested in what BoE’s Mark Carney has to deliver on Tuesday when he releases the latest inflation report, economic forecast and outlook policy. On the data front inflation, employment and retail sales are key figures to determine whether Sterling can continue moving higher.

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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA)
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 4:22 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Dollar bulls are back in town for Trump

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Dollar bullish investors stole the show during trading on Monday with the Dollar Index surging to eleven-month highs at 100.00 as expectations intensified over the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in December. The Dollar’s appreciation was complimented with optimism towards Trump’s administration bolstering spending and reviving inflation, a move seen as supporting economic growth in the States.

With recent comments from Vice Chair Fischer, Lacker and Williams adding to the hawkish chorus of Fed officials signaling a December rate hike, the Dollar could be a buyers dream moving forward. Sentiment is heavily bullish towards the Greenback and the 81% probability of a rate hike before year-end could keep the currency buoyed. Much attention may be directed towards Tuesday’s retail sales figures which if exceeds expectations may add to the pool of economic data that continue to display signs of economic stability in the States.

The Dollar Index is bullish on the daily timeframe as prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. A decisive breakout and daily close above 100.00 could open the doors towards 100.50 and potentially higher.

Japan’s Q3 GDP a pleasant surprise

Optimism towards Japan’s economic recovery received a boost during early trading on Monday following the nation’s impressive third quarter GDP figure of 0.5% which quelled some fears over faltering economic growth. The unexpected expansion eased anxieties over the ineffectiveness of Abenomics while also providing some support to Japanese Prime minister Shinzo Abe as he faces a potential economic repercussion from the shocking U.S presidential victory.

With Japan’s third quarter economic growth heavily driven by exports rather than consumption, concerns still remain elevated over the sustainability of the current recovery. It should be kept in mind that consumption in the world’s third-largest economy remains weak while fears of Donald Trump’s protectionist views on trade have kept Japanese government officials on edge. The overall outlook for Japan continues to look fragile with risk aversion amid the ongoing uncertainty pressuring the nation further as the Yen appreciates.

The USDJPY is heavily bullish on the Daily timeframe as the combination of Dollars strength and temporary Yen weakness amid the risk-on trading environment encourages bullish investors to attack. Prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the upside. A breakout above 108.00 could trigger a further incline towards 111.00.

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WTI bears on the offense

WTI oil was shaky on Monday as the heightened fears over the persistent oversupply of oil in the global markets haunted investor attraction. Recent reports of Iran pumping incessantly in a self-fulfilling quest to reclaiming lost market share continues to attract sellers while optimism has faded over November’s pending OPEC meeting concluding with an effective freeze deal. The Dollar resurgence amid rising US rate hike expectations simply pressured oil prices further with concerns that demand may be waning from slowing global growth capping oils upside gains. The bearish combination of Dollar strength, oversupply concerns, and fears of slowing demand have made WTI Oil fundamental bearish. Steeper depreciations could be expected in the medium term once bears conquer the $43 support.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The EURUSD commenced the week under tremendous pressure with prices cutting below 1.0800 as a resurgent Dollar enticed bears to install heavy rounds of selling. Donald Trump’s shock victory swiftly sparked speculations of the European Central Bank extending its QE program at December’s meeting, consequently leaving the Euro vulnerable to losses. The mixture of Euro weakness and Dollar strength has made this pair attractive to sellers with further declines expected as expectations heighten over the Fed raising US rates before year end. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has also crossed to the downside. Previous support around 1.0800 could transform into a dynamic resistance which may open a path lower towards 1.0600.


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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst


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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:16 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Is Trump's rally over?


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The financial markets’ reaction to Trump’s victory seems to be abating early Tuesday with the dollar index retreating for the first time in six days after approaching its highest levels in nearly 13-years. Global bonds sell-off also took a break after wiping out almost $1.5 trillion from its value.

More interestingly, yields on Japan’s 10-year JGB’s rose above zero for the first time since September 21 and if they settle above zero, it will be for the first time since February 23, leaving only its Swiss rival in negative territory, suggesting that we’re approaching an end to the negative interest rate world.

Fixed income portfolio managers are challenged by Trump’s expected economic policies of more fiscal spending and borrowing to boost growth and inflation levels. However, it’s still not clear yet if the Fed will start responding to these policies by accelerating rate hikes expectations and whether a conservative republican Congress will pass an aggressive fiscal stimulus plan.

Sectors in U.S. equity markets diverged substantially. Financials and industrials continued to lead, sending the Dow Jones to a new record high while the technology sector was left behind weighing on heavy tech Nasdaq index. If the divergence continues within these major sectors it could send a warning signs to investors that the rally is not sustainable, especially since long term fixed income maturities have started to look attractive.

Investors will turn their attention to economic data with a busy calendar ahead for today. Growth figures and inflation data from around the Eurozone and UK will attract attention away from Trump. UK’s consumer prices are expected to show prices edged up again in October albeit slightly from September’s reading, meanwhile the retail price index is forecasted to exceed the 2% benchmark for the first time since 2014. Of course, UK’s rising inflation has a lot to do with the pound’s slump, but another factor to consider going forward is oil prices which will start losing their influence on inflation as they stand on the same levels they were a year ago. The same applies to the Eurozone where ECB plans of extending QE program seems to be challenged when inflation returns.


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By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA)
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2016 3:29 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

US retail sales lead to strong rallies

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So far the US markets have continued to be a massive market driver in the recent weeks, as the recent political events and the volatility surrounding the race for the presidency caused markets to create large opportunities for traders. With all the passing euphoria now over the Donald Trump victory the markets are looking forward and at the possibility of Trump fulfilling promises to ‘make America great again’ and the expectations thus far are that he will spend up to 1 trillion USD in order to boost infrastructure spending and help bolster the economy. For the economy this will have a very large effect and the flow is expected to see an increase in inflation rates and the possibility of further rate rises to match the inflation rate. This was bolstered with retail sales m/m coming in at 0.8% (0.6% exp) which represents the economy being stronger than expected, and with the US economy consumption orientated it’s likely to have large flow on effects for the economy. It will now be quite interesting to see the reaction of the FED and how it anticipates inflation rising in the near term and if they look to still increase interest rates before December is out. There is still hope amongst a few economists that this may come true and the dollar bulls are likely to be ready.

The flow on effects are likely to be felt for some time in the US market and none more so than the S&P 500 which continues to be a catalyst for the growth that is expected. So far the S&P 500 has rallied strongly on the back of trumps win and today touched a key resistance level at 2183. For me this level for some time has remained strong, but the current prognoses is that it could break and markets will be looking to test this level over the coming days. Anything above this would be psychological levels at 2200 and 2250 for resistance.

Once again oil continues to find itself under pressure. The idea of the economy increasing in the USA has so far been positive for oil markets, and there are even reports of OPEC leaders flying between the various oil producing states in an effort to discuss the flagging prices. However, what can’t go unnoticed is the current surpluses that we are seeing in the long run, and if they are going to continue to hamper the prospect of oil prices continuing to go higher.

So far Oil has moved higher on the charts, but it’s unlikely to remain that way if the surplus build up does come true and well above expectations. Resistance at 46.19 was slowly missed and the market is looking slightly down as a result. Expectations though around the surplus could lead to a push back lower and support could possibly be found at 44.90 on the charts. Regardless of the surplus though OPEC continues to be the wild card element for oil traders and could lead to further volatility.



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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst

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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Wed Nov 16, 2016 9:22 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Sterling and Oil’s rebound in focus

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The explosive Trump fueled market rally displayed signs of exhaustion on Tuesday with global stocks trading in a modest range as investors redirected their focus back to global fundamentals. Asian shares were noticeably higher during early trading on Wednesday, following the firm finish on Wall Street and oil’s sharp rebound which renewed risk appetite. European stocks may be in line to open higher from Asia’s bullish domino with Sterling weakness from the persistent Brexit anxieties potentially propelling London’s FTSE100 higher. With sentiment towards the US economy turning bullish amid the rising optimism of higher economic growth under Trump’s presidency, Wall Street could be poised for further gains moving forward.

Sterling ranges ahead of UK labor report

Sterling remains dogged by the ongoing Brexit saga with uncertainty weathering buying sentiment towards the currency. Tuesday’s unexpected decline in consumer price growth for October was the invitation needed for bearish investors to attack the vulnerable GBPUSD back towards 1.2400. Sentiment is clearly bearish towards the Sterling with further declines expected on the GBPUSD as a rising Dollar caps upside gains. From a technical standpoint, bears can attack below 1.2400 or above 1.2700 with targets stretching towards 1.2200.

Investors may direct their attention towards the pending UK labor report which could provide some clarity on how the UK economy is faring in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. The number of new claimants for unemployment has been predicted to edge higher in October, and if such becomes a reality then concerns could elevate over the Brexit woes contaminating the UK labor markets. Another batch of soft domestic economic releases from the UK could be the catalyst bears need to install another heavy round of selling on the GBPUSD during Wednesday’s trading session.

WTI Oil rebounds to $46

WTI Crude staged an incredible rebound on Tuesday evening with prices charging towards $46 as expectations heightened over OPEC securing a production freeze deal at the November 30th meeting. Talks of the cartel general secretary and Saudi Energy minister having informal discussions with Russia ahead of the formal meeting have also enticed speculators to add bets on a potential freeze deal. Although OPEC may be repeatedly commended on their ability to exploit the oil prices sensitivity to create speculative boosts, this could come at a cost if investors are disappointed again. The lingering oversupply concerns still weigh on sentiment while growing fears of a potential decline in demand amid slowing global growth may stop bulls in their tracks.

Participants may direct their attention towards Wednesday’s Crude oil inventories report which if displays a buildup could spark a selloff in oil. From a technical standpoint, bears could reclaim control if WTI slides back below $45.00.


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By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst
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Re: Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:40 am
by FXTM Official
Forextime.com Daily Market Analysis

Oil weakens on inventory surplus

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Oil market as predicted yesterday continue to show signs of weakness, as US Crude Oil Inventories continued to show surpluses in the marketplace. This has been a target squarely on the back of oil bulls who have been looking to finally drive oil higher. It feels that the only way we are going to see a deficit of oil is if OPEC actually intervenes and is able to push down the production levels of oil. Russia also continues to be a strong voice in the oil market, how much can be believed is slightly debatable as they are not an official member of OPEC but have been working with OPEC to get some benefits. Regardless of today I would expect markets to continue to remain bullish in the long given the recent boost from Trump that is expected when he announces his promise to get America working again.

Chart wise, oil continues to be a slightly mixed bag with the markets playing off news, but also the movements around oil surpluses and deficits in the US. This will continue to be the main theme for some time, but the technical patterns continue to remain strong. Resistance can be found at 46.19 and has been very strong as of late, with today's movements failing to close out above this key area. Support levels on the way down can be found at 44.90 and 43.47 and are likely to come under further pressure in the coming days, especially if the US dollar continues to strengthen.

The New Zealand economy has been going through some rocky times at present (no pun intended), but the employment situation has been improving to say the least as ANZ job advertisements were slightly up to +0.6% on the previous month, showing that there was still room for growth in the labour market. For the most part there is a lot uncertainty around the New Zealand economy after the recent earth quakes and this might put more pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates sooner and faster than previously expected to help businesses and home owners who are struggling. Even though banks have not been carrying over the most recent cut on their own interest rates.

The NZDUSD is looking very bearish at present as the USD bulls have so far been quite strong, but also the NZD has come under immense pressure in the wake of recent natural events. So far the NZDUSD has dipped sharply and the 0.70 psychological level is ever present in traders' minds and has been holding back further lows. Support at 0.7032 lead to some buying today, but it's unlikely to be sustained given the bleak outlook in the face of what has happened. Any pull back higher on the charts is likely to find resistance at 0.7113, which has been acting as a strong level in recent times.



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By Alex Gurr, Guest Analyst

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