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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Market Outlook by Capital Street FX
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Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:44 pm
by CSFX.Support
Coffee Pares Gains after Strong Rally, Bulls May Come Back Soon

Coffee prices declined in early trading hours on Wednesday, after marching higher for five trading days in a row, as erratic rainfall in Brazil is bringing potentially supply threats to the upcoming crop. Even though coffee prices have rallied for eight out of the last ten sessions, investors betting on coffee are able to bid the commodity up even higher as the already supply shortfall situation is expected to get worse.

Brazil, the world’s second largest robusta coffee producer may have to witness another poor crop as the latest erratic rainfall could hurt they key flowering period which will directly decide yields of coffee beans. While the upcoming crop is being threatened, the last two years of drought in Brazil has damped the top grower’s production significantly.

Bad weather has also impacted the robusta crops in Vietnam – the largest robusta producer. According to market sources, the country’s worst drought in three decades caused its crop to decrease by 11% this year. Drought conditions in Vietnam have led farmer in Central Highlands to switch to grow other crops which are more economic in the use of water.

The International Coffee Organization forecast the coffee market will experience the third consecutive year in which supply has lagged behind demand. ICO on Friday anticipated poorer crops for Colombia, Indonesia, Brazil and Vietnam in the 2016/17 crop year due to unfavorable weather conditions, after estimating a supply deficit of 3.3 million bags for the 2015/16 crop year that has just ended.

Traders will likely pay close attention to the rains in Brazil. If satisfactory rainfall comes in the following weeks, the commodity will be poised for a correction, but continued concerns over dryness would definitely support upside.


Coffee retreated from four-week highs at around 159.40 after a rally that sent the commodity more than 10% higher. The coffee market entered the overbought zone and consequently pulled back as bulls has been exhausted after sustaining the price higher for a long period of time. However, after some corrective moves, coffee prices are expected to resume its uptrend with supports from two MAs placed under the price action.

Trade suggestion

Buy limit at 157.00, Take profit at 159.00, Stop loss at 155.00

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Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2016 6:58 pm
by CSFX.Support
Oil Rallies To Multi-month Peak As U.S Crude Supplies Fall Unexpectedly

Oil prices rallied on Wednesday, after the Energy Information Administration reported a surprise drop in crude stockpiles. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude reached 16-month high at $51.92 per barrel following government data that showed domestic crude supplies dropped by 5.2 million barrels in the week ended October 14th.

This is the sixth decline in the last seven weeks. The large draw in U.S. crude stocks was also supported by a decline in imports. U.S. imports were reported to fall 954,000 barrels a day from a week earlier.

Since the start of September, U.S. crude-oil stocks have dropped 26.5 million barrels.

WTI Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 51.60, Take profit at 51.90, Stop loss at 51.40

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Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:12 pm
by CSFX.Support
Airline and Energy Shares Limit Losses on FTSE 100 – 7000.00 Level Seems A Good Support

U.K shares pared earlier losses in early trade on Thursday after a disappointing reading on domestic retail sales weighed on British Pound. While housebuilders were still under pressures from concerns of a so-called hard Brexit, shares of energy companies continued to rally despite a retreat in oil prices.

The Office for National Statistics reported U.K retail sales were unchanged in September from August, which were below expectations of analyst who had forecast a 0.2% increase last month. After a strong summer, retail sales stagnated as soaring prices and unusual warm weather hit demand for clothing and footwear.

British consumers may come under more price pressures in the coming months as a weak pound is stocking inflation by causing imports goods to be more expensive. According to the ONS on Tuesday, U.K inflation rose 1.0% in September – the highest monthly accelerating pace since November 2014. Limited wage growth is another factor that may limit consumer spending, one of the U.K.’s key engines of growth. Figures on Wednesday showed real wages growth hit its weakest level since the end of 2015.

Oil prices pulled back on Thursday after soaring strongly yesterday owing to an unexpectedly 5.25-million-barrel drop in American stockpiles. However, bullish sentiment remained and fueled shares of London-listed energy companies. Shares of Royal Dutch Shell PLC gained 0.58%, while BP PLC added 0.08%.

Airline shares rose after German Deutsche Lufthansa AG raised its full-year earnings forecast. The Germany’s largest airline said late Wednesday that it forecast adjusted earnings before interest and taxes for 2016 to be roughly on par with last year’s €1.8 billion ($2 billion) level. U.K’s Easyjet added 2.00% and British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group SA gained 2.44%.

Among issues trading in the red, housebuilders among the biggest decliners. Shares of Taylor Wimpey PLC dropped 1.86%, Barratt Developments PLC fell 1.9% and Persimmon PLC PSN, -1.12% shed 1.12%. Building-products supplier Travis Perkins PLC prolonged its slide by giving up another 0.49%, after losing 4.4% on Wednesday as the company issued a profit warning.


FTSE 100 index has been trading in a narrow range since Tuesday, which left RSI moving almost in a horizontal line and ADX dipping below 20 – the level divides a market that has a clear trend (or is forming a trend) from a market that is moving sideways. However, it seems like the index is being supported by two MAs placed below the price action which could be levels for a reversal into uptrend.

FTSE Trade suggestion
Buy Limit at 7010.00, Take profit at 7035.00, Stop loss at 6995.00

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2016 6:29 pm
by CSFX.Support
Silver Signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 17:45 20/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 20/10/2016

Sell at 17.500
Take profit at 17.420
Stop loss at 17.540

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:18 pm
by CSFX.Support
AUD/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 06:20 20/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 21/10/2016

Sell at 0.75930
Take profit at 0.75800
Stop loss at 0.76100

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:32 pm
by CSFX.Support
Microsoft Jumps On Upbeat Earnings Results – But Be Careful Traders

Shares of Microsoft rallied to the level they have not seen since the heyday in 1999 in after-hours trading on Thursday. The stock soared about 6% after the software giant reported quarterly revenue that beat Wall Street’s expectations by more than 12%.

Microsoft posted $22.33 billion in revenue for its first quarter in fiscal 2017, up 3.1% from the same quarter last year. The result topped analysts’ consensus of $21.69 billion.

Revenue generated from the Windows products was flat as the PC market continued to stagnate, while Lumia smartphone sales also declined. Total revenue of the unit that includes Windows software and mobile business dropped 1.8% to $9.29 billion. According to market sources, Microsoft’s worldwide PC shipments fell 3.9 percent in the quarter ended Sept. 30.

Nonetheless, the technology company’s bottom line was supported strongly by the Office 365 and Azure cloud-computing services that grew at a good clip. Sales from Microsoft’s flagship cloud product Azure, which businesses can use to host their websites and data, rose 116% to $6.4 billion. Revenue from its broader “Intelligent Cloud” business also witnessed an increase of 8.3% to $6.38 billion.

While cloud technology is setting Microsoft apart from smaller rivals, it was not the only secret that stood behind Microsoft’s big profit beat. Last month, Microsoft said its board had approved a stock buyback plan of up to $40 billion. By lowering the overall outstanding share count to 7.88 billion from 8.08 billion a year ago only, Microsoft’s earnings per share were effectively boosted by 2 cents. That is the reason why the Redmond, WA-based company still registered net income of $0.76 per share, which is 6 cents higher than that in the same quarter a year ago, while its revenue did not gain considerably.


Microsoft’s shares have been trading in a range between the support at 56.08 and the resistance at 58.62 for three months. ADX index has been moving under 20 level, indicating no clear trend in the market. The prices are moving back and forth a couple of moving averages that has twisted for a while. With the rise in extended-hour trading, Microsoft stocks are going to create a wide gap up.

Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 60.40, Take profit at 58.70, Stop loss at 61.10

Start Trading Forex, Indices, Commodities And Hundreds of Other Markets With Capital Street FX Now!

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:31 am
by CSFX.Support
Image
Daily Report on October 24, 2016

The U.S dollar edged up versus all of its major peers, reaching a fresh eight-month high against a basket of six currencies on Monday. Expectations that the U.S Federal Reserve will raise interest rate by the end of this year were further buoyed by San Francisco Fed President John Williams, whose remarks pointed to a hawkish tone. Speaking on Friday at a mortgage conference, President Williams stated that the Fed should increase rates gradually, “preferably sooner rather than later”.

According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday, speculators increased their net long position on the dollar to $18.44 billion in the week ended Oct. 18, from $14.72 billion the previous week. That was the fourth consecutive week that investors have raised their bets on the greenback, which sent the currency’s net long positions to the highest since late January.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported on Monday that Japanese exports fell 6.9% in September from a year earlier. The rally in the Yen undermined export prices and extended the export decline for a 12th straight month. However, exports rose 4.7% in terms of volume in the year to September, thanks to Asian demand for iPhone-related parts, and car sales in Europe.

Also in Japan, Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI for October was reported to tick up to a seasonally adjusted 51.7 – the fastest pace in nine months, led by mounting new orders. The Bank of Japan will hold its policy meeting on November 1st, and is expected to make no changes to its current stimulus program.

Crude oil prices fell at the start of the new week after Iraq’s oil minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi said on Sunday that the nation should be exempted from production cuts proposed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Citing the war with Islamic militants that Iraq is struggling with, as the reason, Luaibi claimed the same exemption as other OPEC-members Nigeria and Libya.



Technicals

EURAUD



Fig: EURAUD H4 Technical chart

After having swung back and forth around the 38.2% level at 1.46850 for two weeks, EURAUD eventually breached below this handle on October 10 and has been under downward pressure from the two MAs placed above the price action since then. Staying in a bearish market as indicated by the RSI chart, the pair is approaching the 50.0% retracement at 1.40994.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.42500, Take profit at 1.40100, Stop loss at 1.43200



AUDJPY



Fig: AUDJPY H4 Technical chart

As can be observed from the chart, AUDJPY has been on a rise for almost a month. After a correction that sent the pair from three-month highs at 80.000 to as low as 78.710, the Aussie pulled back against the Japanese Yen from the upward sloping trendline that connects higher lows since September 27. The resistance at the 23.6% retracement level is within sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 79.250, Take profit at 79.600, Stop loss at 79.000



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical chart

USDCAD retreated from over-six-month highs at 1.33550 after surging sharply from as low as 1.30048 logged last Wednesday. The pair has broken the 38.2% level at 1.33111 and may turn this major Fibonacci retracement into its new support level, as the recent decline is expected to be a short correction after the market entered into the overbought zone.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 1.33111, Take profit at 1.33550, Stop loss at 1.32950



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical chart

Gold has been trading in a thin range around the 23.6% handle at 1264.73. The precious metal attempted to break below the 23.6% level but the short-term MA20 is fueling bullish momentum in the gold market. The RSI has also failed to move past the 50 line, suggesting strong bulls in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1267.50, Take profit at 1275.00, Stop loss at 1262.00.



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical chart

U.S crude prices are moving sideways under the 20-period moving average. The two MAs have turned into dynamic resistance after the price action crossed below them from above. As can be seen from the Stochastic chart, the %K line has penetrated the %D line from north to south, indicating a reversal into downtrend. In the event of continual downward pressure being exerted by the two MAs, WTI prices may stumble to as low as 49.35 - the lowest since October 13th.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 50.55, Take profit at 49.35, Stop loss at 51.00



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical chart

The Nasdaq 100 index created a gap up on the market open on Monday and looks set to retest the highest level since October 18th at 4861.00. The price action has crossed through the two moving averages from below, suggesting an uptrend. With the confirmation from the RSI index that has soared to as high as 57.98, the Nasdaq 100 may face resistance at 4880.00

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4861.00, Take profit at 4880.00, Stop loss at 4840.00

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:45 am
by CSFX.Support
EURUSD Crawls Back from Multi-month Lows – Will the Slide Resume?

The euro rose against the U.S dollar on Monday. EURUSD snapped a four-day losing streak to pull back from the lowest level in the last six and a half months at $1.08584, logged on Friday. The recovery in the euro today came after a string of upbeat data from key Eurozone countries and composite data fro the EU as a whole.

Research group Markit on Monday reported Eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index for October accelerated at the fastest pace since the beginning of 2016. The gauge which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors, took off to a ten-month high at 53.7 in the current month, from September’s reading of 52.6.

Particularly, manufacturing PMI for the region rose to a 30-month high at 53.3, while the services PMI jumped to the highest level since April 2016 at 53.5. All data releases beat expectations by analysts.

Earlier Monday, Markit reported that its manufacturing PMI reading for Germany – Europe’s largest economy – rose to 55.1 in October from 54.3 the previous month, beating forecasts which called for an unchanged reading. Not only did the manufacturing index hit a 33-month high, the German services PMI also climbed to a 3-month high at 54.1 this month, which topped expectations for an uptick to 51.5.

Markit also reported that France’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in October from 49.7 in the month before. However, the French services PMI was an exception and it slipped to 52.1 this month from 53.3.

In general, the Eurozone economy continued to prove to be resilient, which dampened the possibility that the European Central Bank will extend its stimulus program in December – three months before quantitative easing is currently set to expire.

The single currency fell to near seven-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday based on perceptions of a potential divergence between monetary policies of the ECB and the U.S Federal Reserve. While the Fed is highly expected to raise its rate by the end of this year, investors expect that the ECB’s buying-asset program will not end before its scheduled expiry. President Mario Draghi indicated last week that the mentioned program would not be ended abruptly without being tapered first and the bank has not discussed any tapering plan in its October meeting.

Draghi will be speaking at the German Institute for Economic Research, in Berlin on Tuesday, but before that, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley and Federal Bank of St. Louis’s James Bullard will deliver separate speeches later today.

EURUSD breached another key Fibonacci retracement level after breaking below the 38.2% and 50.0% levels. The pair broke through the 61.8% handle at 1.09250 on Friday and the market entered the oversold zone. Therefore, a rally fueled by upbeat data today may be considered as a correction. With the two MAs hovering above the price action, the pair may reverse lower to test the key support at 1.08000.

EURUSD Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.08600, Take profit at 1.08000, Stop loss at 1.08900

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:29 pm
by CSFX.Support
USD /CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 16:00 24/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 24/10/2016

Sell at 0.99290
Take profit at 0.99080
Stop loss at 0.99550

Re: Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:34 pm
by CSFX.Support
USDCAD Rallies As Markets Bet On December Fed Rate Hike

USDCAD rose to the highest level since March 16th at 1.33958 on Monday, extending the rally to a fourth straight trading day.

The Canadian dollar lost the support extended via the oil price, as oil stumbled following the Iraqi oil minister’s comments on Sunday that the nation should be exempted from production cuts proposed by the OPEC. The U.S dollar strengthened after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard’s hawkish remarks on interest rates.

Speaking on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a conference on Monday, Bullard reinforced his previous comments by reiterating the necessity of a U.S rate hike this year.

The case for raising interest rates was strengthened as a report from Markit indicated that U.S. Manufacturing activity hit the highest level in a year this month with the index at 53.2, beating forecasts of a slight increase to 51.6.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.34000, Take profit at 1.34430, Stop loss at 1.33550