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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart (Fundamentals}
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Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: September 13, 2016

PostPosted: Tue Sep 13, 2016 8:49 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/CAD increased by 28 points after a decrease in oil prices caused by a positive US production data and an easing in gold prices. The Canadian dollar is currently trading at 1.3077 points after an increase in international commodity prices, with the USD rallying on Friday after speculations that the Fed might consider an increase in its interest rates within the month.

The USD is increasing in relation to the CAD after a relatively positive US jobless claims data and negative Canadian building permits report data. According to the US Department of Labor, the jobless claims data up until September 3 decreased by 4,000, going down from 263,000 to 259,000. However, market analysts are still expecting the jobless claims data to go up by 2,000 within the week.

Canadian building permits data meanwhile went up by 0.8% in July, exceeding initial expectations for an increase of only 0.3%. The housing price index data also saw an improvement, rising to 0.4% from last month’s 0.1%, while the annual score also increased 2.5% to 2.8%. Investors are refraining from buying into the CAD due to the appeal of other riskier currencies.


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Fundamental Analysis for NZD/USD: September 14, 2016

PostPosted: Wed Sep 14, 2016 10:42 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The NZD/USD pair went lower during the last trading session, going down 12 points to trade at 0.7341 in the light of an impending interest rate increase by the Fed and confusions brought about by a decision from the Bank of Japan. On the other hand, China’s industrial production data went well above the expected range but did not seem to bring much support to the commodity currency. The Chinese industrial data increased by 6.3% in August as compared to last year, while retail sales data also exceeded expectations from market speculators.

Traders are now monitoring data from New Zealand, with the account balance due on Wednesday, economic data results scheduled to come out on Thursday, and the results of the consumer confidence survey set to be released on Friday. The NZD was also supported by an increase in food prices, which can cause inflation rates to ease a little bit. Bond prices from New Zealand also decreased, with yield points at 1.5 basis points, going higher towards the end of the yield curve.


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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: September 15, 2016

PostPosted: Thu Sep 15, 2016 6:48 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The EUR weakened while the GBP further increased, causing the EUR/GBP pair to trade at 8.499 points, going down at .0003 or -0.035%. The pair movement has caused a technical reversal top, which signals that investor sentiments are about to drop. Eurostat has also reported on Wednesday’s economic news that the industrial production data decreased by 1.1% in June, with a 0.8% increase in May.

On the other hand, the UK employment data is showing a resiliency in the UK jobs market, even after the Brexit vote. The Office of National Statistics has reported an increase in employment rates, going up by 174,000 to 31.77 million in just three months since July. These employment rates are the highest in 40 years, with the increase in the number going above the expected range by economists. The unemployment rates also remained at a stagnant range of 4.9% in July. Meanwhile, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits went up by 2,400 to 771,000 last August.

However, wage growth data also experienced a gradual slowdown, causing economists and speculators to have unsteady opinions with the set of data released. However, this strengthening of British employment and jobs data may cause the Bank of England to pay less attention to interest rates and maintain its current stimulus once the bank announces it decisions regarding monetary policies on Thursday.


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Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 16, 2016

PostPosted: Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:40 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/JPY pair dropped 14 points to trade at 102.29 points, well within its recent trading range of between 101.90 and 102.50. The strength of the USD was offset by an impending meeting of the Bank of Japan next week, as well as a renewed demand for the safe haven currency. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Japanese subzero-rates policy had a significant impact in putting downward pressure on interest rates.

There are also signs that the BoJ will be attempting to sharpen its yield curve by increasing long-term rates and suppressing short-term rates. The Bank of Japan has already purchased more short-term government bonds, shifted its bonds and is currently buying lesser bonds. The percentage of long-term bonds went up by half of a percentage since July. However, in spite of the steepening of the Japanese yield curve, the difference between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds is still half of its value before the effect of negative rates.

Japanese government bonds had their worst selloff in 20 years, especially since the BoJ will be planning to implement adjustments on the maturity range, causing yields to rise on longer-duration bonds.


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Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 20, 2016

PostPosted: Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:45 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/JPY traded at 101.866, dropping by 0.390 points or -0.38% as traders and investors are preparing for the announcements of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan regarding their respective monetary policies on Wednesday.

Although the Federal Reserve’s announcement on its interest rate policies will be announced in the same period as that of BoJ’s announcement, analysts are speculating that the BoJ’s announcement on its monetary policies will have a greater impact on the market’s volatility and movement than that of the Fed’s announcement. However, this announcement might give cues regarding an imminent interest rate hike in December, which can strengthen the USD and cause the JPY to lose some of its value.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to discuss an extensive review of its monetary policy framework, which includes a combination of its asset-buying program with its negative interest rates.

Speculators are having difficulties with regards to predicting the BoJ’s movement. Some speculators are saying that the Japanese central bank will be changing its mechanism in exchange of a policy which will be combining an increased stimulus while giving protection to banks which are struggling with dealing with the negative effects of interest rates on their respective deposits.

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Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: September 21, 2016

PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:37 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/JPY pair went down by 0.169 0r -0.17% to trade at 101.744 points. The US dollar is currently in a tight trading range against the JPY during the last trading session as various market players are waiting for the Bank of Japan’s announcement regarding its monetary policies, as well as the Federal Reserve’s announcement on Tuesday.

The USD/JPY slightly weakened after the release of the US housing data, which turned out to be a disappointment for traders and investors. The housing data came out at a yearly rate of 1.14 million units last August, going way below the expected range of 1.19 million units. Construction permits also dropped by 0.4% to go down at 1.14 million units in August.

Speculators are saying that the Bank of Japan would have to implement programs with significant monetary policy easing and interest rate cuts in order to further weaken the JPY in the long-term frame. The Federal Reserve must also release a hawkish statement which can indicate a possible rate hike in December. The USD/JPY is also expected to appreciate especially if the BoJ releases a more aggressive monetary strategy combined with an expected 12% interest rate raise by the Fed prior to the central bank’s announcement. However, if the Fed remains cautious on its policies and refuses to raise its rates, then the USD might weaken and the BoJ would be unable to decrease the value of the Japanese currency.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis - September 21, 2016

PostPosted: Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:58 am
by Andrea ForexMart
Yesterday, Governor Poloz of the Bank of Canada discussed about the need of the monetary stimulus for the country in order to bolster its economy, however the US and Canadian dollar seems impassive as it performed a steady-going movement.

As it was stated in the yesterday's forecast, the USDCAD traded within a high range near the 200 SMA and possibly to become a firm resistance for the pair and the forecast were already proven right. Buyers attempted to drove the price beyond the resistance level which resulted a fall back to its previous range.

The 200 SMA breaks through the 1.3253, the high is positioned around the 1.3242. Due to a sharp decline of the high, the price settled down at 1.3176 and further changes down to 1.3100 is still anticipated. Moreover, the FOMC announcement will determine if the pair could make an increase within the level of 1.2850.

The USD and CAD appeared to be bearish within a short and medium term. There is also a prediction regarding the oil prices consolidation subsequent to the recession happened few months ago. Part of the forecast is the continuous ranging of the pair between 400-500 daily pip range.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22 2016

PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:49 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The activity of GBPUSD yesterday resulted the pair to be considered as volatile currency pair in the market.The pound and dollar trades in a tight range with a firm support set in the level of 1.2950. The resistance level maintained 1.3000 even after the Fed announcement regarding the retain the price of current rates, however, they did not issued a specific date for the rate hike.

The vague announcement from Fed rendered an uncertain state of volatility and subsequent to this statement, other pair related to USD have been affected also. The concerned pairs concluded a moderate upward trend followed by the GBPUSD as well.

The USD established a weak position because the market were a little disappointed since Fed did not presented anything hawkish. The pair fluctuated with a resistance level of 1.300 but the movement continued on an advanced level of 1.3035.
In view of the instability of the USD that is expected to prevail until the succeeding session but with a conforming and secure target ranges from 1.3140 to 1.3170.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 23 2016

PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2016 8:49 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The EUR/USD persist an upward grind movement since the trading day yesterday. The said activity started subsequent to the FOMC's announcement.

Bearish investors tried to pass through the support level of 1.1145 but failed to accomplish their plan. When the announcement were already made, bullish investors are able to manage the price actions that moved in an ascending manner. They are capable to broke the yesterday's forecast with a level of 1.1250.

The European market look forward for the announcement of the ECB president, Mr. Mario Draghi regarding the Euro economy. This is why the economy had experienced a price delay in selling. Consequent to the major announcements made by the BoJ, Fed and other central banks, Draghi did not disclose any special information because he does not want to aggravate them.

After the grind and FOMC statement, the USD moderately increased and started to acquire strength together with the its related pairs. This development negatively affected the Euro and demonstrated a decreasing grind that last in one night.

The grind of EUR gained a support towards 1.1200. In case that the dollar stick on its actions, the EURUSD has the tendency to draw back a main support in the 1.1200 level.


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Fundamental Analysis USD/JPY: September 26, 2016

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2016 4:57 am
by Andrea ForexMart
Investors in the Japanese yen were disappointed with the Bank of Japan’s plans to reexamine its monetary policies. The reaction to the central bank’s announcement caused an initial double-sided volatility. Investors have since decided that this particular decision will have no bearing on the economy and on the Japanese currency.

The BoJ’s announcement caused the JPY to increase significantly on September 21, but the USD had already started bouncing back by September 23. The USD/JPY closed Friday’s trading session at 100.971 points, going up by 0.211 points or +0.21%. The pair however still closed the week lower by 1.26%.

The USD/JPY pair was also further weakened by the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy statement, which turned out to be less hawkish than expected. The Federal Reserve did not increase its interest rates this month, but there is still a possibility of an interest rate hike in December.

The USD experienced a downward pressure.due to the Fed’s lowered expectations and the decreased possibility of future rate hikes, which can lead to a lowered appreciation of the USD since the central bank’s decision indicates a slow-moving US economy.

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