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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart (Fundamentals}
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 3, 2017

PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:44 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The GBP/USD pair has been nursing its wounds during the past trading session as the currency pair is still at a loss on what it needs to do in order to propel its value higher up the chart. The sterling pound has been experience a lot of pressure this week, with the shadows of the ongoing Brexit process hanging over the currency, especially since it is still uncertain whether the impending talks between EU and UK leaders would go smoothly or otherwise. The invocation of Article 50 is drawing nearer and once the line is drawn, there will be no returning for both the European Union and the UK.

In addition to the pressure brought about by the Brexit, there have been also additional concerns that Scotland is planning to relieve itself from the UK, and though this has been nothing more than a rumor, it does not look like it’s going to die down any soon, and the USD is also undergoing a consistent rallying streak, another cause of trouble for the GBP/USD pair. The main reason behind the dollar strength is that the market is slowly getting used to Trump’s various eccentricities, and the Federal Reserve has also become increasingly hawkish, thereby cementing speculations that an interest rate hike is in the works.

The GBP/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure during today’s session. The UK is scheduled to release its services PMI data today but the market’s main focus would be Yellen’s speech at the New York session. The market will be monitoring whether Yellen will be giving out indications of a March rate hike, and if this is the case, then the dollar would possibly continue rallying and send the GBP/USD pair towards 1.2200 points.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 10:07 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The EUR/USD pair continued with its ranging and consolidation movement for the second consecutive day, with this current trend expected to continue for the subsequent trading session as well. There are no major economic news releases happening within the international market which might influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair, and this is why the market has been incessantly seeing this ranging and consolidation.

However, this particular movement coming from the currency pair is also part of the pair’s preparation for the onslaught of important economic data which are expected to be released in the middle of this week, especially since these economic data would most likely induce a lot of unprecedented volatility in the EUR/USD pair. So until these data gets released in the market, it is highly likely that the currency pair would continue consolidating. The USD experienced some minor corrections throughout the course of yesterday’s trading session, and this has become evident in the state of the EUR/USD pair after the currency pair dropped slightly in value and is now trading at just over 1.0550 points. The pair is expected to maintain its hold on this particular barrier as more buys are expected to come in at this region. This could also cause the currency pair to move towards 1.0600 points and will continue consolidating for the rest of the trading session.

There are no major news releases expected from the European Union for today but the US will be releasing its ADP employment data later today. This employment data is usually touted as a precursor to the NFP report and although its importance is now being overlooked, it still serves as a necessary gauge on how the the NFP report would eventually pan out. Any fluctuations in this particular data are most likely to show in the NFP report as well.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:27 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The GBP/USD pair continues to trade very weakly during the previous trading session. This could be initially attributed to the strengthening of the USD which was reflected across the board, but what has really affected the pound here is the fundamentals underlying the UK economy, as well as various uncertainties which is constantly putting pressure on the value of the GBP/USD pair.

Once the Article 50 gets invoked, the Brexit process is pretty much locked in, and this means that there would be several negotiations between EU and UK leaders immediately after the invocation. UK leaders are expected to be stricter with regards to EU trade access since the majority of them would like the UK to realize the several benefits that it would lose once the country finally becomes a separate nation from the European Union. This uncertainty as well as the tediousness of the Brexit process is likely to take its toll on the GBP/USD pair and this is starting to become more evident as the currency pair continues its weak trading stance, with the currency pair just hovering over 1.2200 points.

The UK will be releasing its yearly budget release today, and the country is expected to paint a pretty picture of their economy in order to boost public sentiment. This might give temporary resolve for the sterling pound but would eventually fizzle out as the fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the state of the GBP/USD pair.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 8, 2017

PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:52 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/CAD pair continues trading within a limited trading range near its range highs, which is the pair’s current trend ever since the start of the week. The stability of oil prices has helped the Canadian dollar maintain its current stance, but since the USD has been consistently regaining its strength, the bears are having difficulty in exceeding the bulls’ progress and this is why the currency pair is firmly in control, with the bulls dominating the USD/CAD pair.

The Canadian trade balance data was released yesterday which came in at a value of 0.8 billion CAD which is very good news for the economy. The trade balance data from the US was als released yesterday and this reading somewhat fell short of initial market expectations/ However, neither of these data had a significant impact on the value of the USD/CAD even though the US dollar is now bracing itself for the onslaught of economic data releases later this week. Both the US and Canada will be releasing its employment data this coming Friday and market players are now preparing for the expected increase in volatility once the data gets released into the market.

For today’s trading session, there no major news releases from the Canadian economy although the US will be releasing its ADP employment data and unless this shows a drastic shift in its economic readings, the USD/CAD pair would most likely continue its ranging and consolidation.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:55 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/CAD pair spent most of yesterday’s trading session on a mostly ranging and consolidating manner, with the currency pair consolidating within the 1.3400-1.3500 region due to the lack of significant economic events from both the US and the Canadian economy. The market is now on a monitoring stance particularly on the USD and this has been reflected in the lack of any kind of activity in the USD/CAD pair.

The market is currently waiting for the onslaught of the release of several economic data from the US tomorrow, with the most important release being the FOMC announcement where the central bank is expected to implement its first interest rate hike for the year. Aside from the FOMC announcement, the CPI data as well as the retail sales data will also be released tomorrow. The high expectations for an interest rate hike tomorrow has helped keep the USD/CAD pair to remain within its range highs. However, the market is not yet sure as to how much hawkishness will be needed for the USD bulls, and this has become somewhat problematic for the USD/CAD pair as the pair has difficulty calculating its move immediately after the FOMC data release.

If the statement from the central bank comes out as satisfyingly hawkish, then the USD could boost its strength and could help the USD/CAD bulls to challenge the sells located at the pair’s 1.3500 barrier. If the data comes out otherwise, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly retreat to its previous trading range. For today’s session, the US economy is expected to release its PPI data which is not expected to induce added volatility into the pair.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 14, 2017

PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:13 am
by Andrea ForexMart
Although the UK economy saw a lot of events and developments during yesterday’s trading session, this has done practically nothing to induce added activity into the GBP/USD pair. A slight bounce occurred in the pair during the previous session but this was automatically met with a selloff, especially since the bounce was somewhat thin and was unable to hold on and prevent the said selloff from occurring. The GBP/USD pair has however managed to surpass 1.2200 points and even managed to reach 1.2250 following market rumors that Theresa May might not be invoking Article 50 within the week. However, since there was no actual confirmation that the invocation would indeed be happening this week, the market became initially confused on the British pound’s rally and the lack of basis to this particular assumption has caused this bounce to eventually die out.

In addition, there have been rumors swirling around that the British government might not accept Scotland’s request to hold an independence referendum, especially since the UK is already neck-deep in uncertainties and another referendum would only cause more disaster for the country’s economy. These series of events has caused the GBP/USD pair to retreat towards 1.2200, where it is currently trading.

For today’s trading session, there are no expected data releases from the UK economy, while the US economy will be releasing its PPI data. However, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate announcement which is set to be released tomorrow. This, in addition to the impending invocation of Article 50, are both expected to keep the GBP/USD pair under pressure in the short term.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 15, 2017

PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:23 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD increased in value as the market anticipates the release of the FOMC rate announcement later today. As a result, the EUR/USD consistently weakened yesterday and has managed to break through 1.0650 points and is currently situated at just above 1.0600 points. A lot of analysts have been saying that the currency pair could possibly consolidate within the 1.0600-1.0700 barrier during the week of the FOMC statement and could possibly maintain its place within the region up until the end of this week.

The expected rate hike this coming March is pretty much secured and what the market will be focusing now is the amount of hawkishness of this particular announcement, and this is where the uncertainty lies. The majority of market players have no idea on just how hawkish the statement should be in order to push the value of the dollar further. Nonetheless, the market expects that there would be some sort of clue on the Federal Reserve’s next move and if possible, hints on the next scheduled interest rate hike from the central bank. Of course, it would definitely be good news for the market if the statement outwardly gives out clues of the next rate hike, but then again the central bank is not known for such moves and could possibly state that the schedule of the subsequent rate hikes would depend on the status of various economic data in the future.

The volatility of the EUR/USD pair could possibly be increased by the release of the CPI index data and the retail sales data. The currency pair could possibly drop to 1.0600 points and could even reach 1.0580 for a short period if the data comes out as positive.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: March 21, 2017

PostPosted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:02 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The USD/CAD pair merely continued its weak trading streak within a limited trading range as the currency pair awaits clues on its price action as dictated by its fundamental indicators. Previously, the USD/CAD pair had already dropped in value last week following the FOMC rate statement, which disappointed investors in general, and since then the currency pair has been unable to make any significant progress and if the pair does move forward, it will be more of a consolidation in order to recover its recent losses than any move towards a definite direction.

The USD/CAD is currently trading at just over 1.3350 points, with the market expecting the currency pair to consolidate within the 1.3300-1.3400 region. The pair is expected to return to its wider trading range and could possibly reach 1.3000 points in the near future. The USD/CAD pair, along with other major currency pairs, are expected to consolidate within a much higher range in spite of their collectively high volatility levels.

The Canadian economy has been consistently releasing a slew of positive economic data, and this is expected to be very good news for the Canadian dollar and could cause the USD/CAD pair to retreat to 1.3000 points. For today’s session, Canada will be releasing its core retail sales data, which will be closely monitored by market players as this will be an important gauge on the overall health of the Canadian economy. If the data meets market expectations, then the USD/CAD pair could retreat towards 1.3300 points and could be poised for more retractions depending on the strength of the said retail sales data.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:03 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The EUR/USD pair was able to move towards 1.0800 points, with the currency pair managing to stay at over 1.0800 for a brief period. However, since the pair has not yet managed to make a clean breakthrough at this very tough barrier since it only momentarily peeked over this level, the pair’s surge was eventually met with large selling and had no choice but to retreat at just under 1.0800 points.

However, in spite of this particular occurrence, the EUR/USD pair is still trading on a somewhat stronger note, thanks to the pair’s bulls who continue to trade on a strong streak. The EUR/USD pair’s move at under 1.0800 now seems as just more of a correction as the pair’s price are still well-maintained within its range highs. This is why the currency pair might give another shot at surpassing the 1.0800 barrier for today, especially since the forthcoming French polls might have Macron as its next President after all. This is a sigh of relief especially for the EUR currency, since Le Pen, Macron’s opponent, is a widely-known critic of the euro currency. In addition, the pairs bulls are getting a lot of encouragement from the very bullish stance of the ECB, who recently stated that the strength of the euro can be mostly attributed to an improvement in the EU economy. The USD has also been struggling to make significant gains in spite of the recent rate hike and there is a very definite possibility that the pair could possibly move towards 1.1000 points once makes a clean break through 1.0850 points.

There are no major news from both the EU and the US economy for today, and this is why the EUR/USD pair might again attempt to break through its barrier. Traders could opt to wait whether the currency pair is able to surpass 1.0850 during the course of the day.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 22, 2017

PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:54 am
by Andrea ForexMart
The GBP/USD pair has been consistently making its way towards 1.2500 points and it looks like the pair’s bulls are more determined than ever to break through this particular range. As of the moment, the GBP/USD pair is now trading at just beneath 1.2500 points and is bracing itself once the currency pair pushes past 1.2500 points, where it is expected to be met with a lot of sells. The bulls must be able to weather these large-scale selloffs in order for the currency pair to go past this particular barrier.

The UK economy released its inflation data yesterday with a reading of 2.3% going well beyond the initial market expectations. This, along with one of the BoE officials voting for a rate hike just goes to show that the Bank of England’s data and policy seem to be in sync, thereby causing the sterling pound to increase in value. However, now that the GBP/USD pair as well as the euro are both in a very critical situation, the market is waiting whether the currency bulls would be able to break through these respective regions.

However, the positive bearing of the sterling pound does not mean that the currency does not run any risks. We still have the nearing invocation of Article 50 as well as Scotland’s recent demand for an independence referendum, although the market has chosen not to focus on these and instead focus on the weakness of the USD. There are no major news releases coming from both the US and UK economy for today and so the market will be focusing instead on the battle at the 1.2500 barrier, with the market focusing on whether the currency pair will be finally making it through this section or weaken eventually and resort to some more consolidation for the rest of the trading day.

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