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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.
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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 9:14 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 26th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th September 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are slightly lower after fresh pressure on tech stocks dragged down Wall Street and with investors watching North Korea tensions, after top North Korea diplomat said a Trump tweet over the weekend was a “declaration of war”. USDJPY fell to 111.73 from 112.25 , while Gold spiked up about $14/ounce to $1,309.86, following comments from North Korea’s foreign minister. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down and ongoing risk aversion should keep bonds underpinned. Germany remains focused on the fallout from the election as coalition talks come into focus. Brexit talks restarted yesterday, but May’s speech last week doesn’t seem to have brought the hoped-for breakthrough in the talks. Today’s calendar has French business confidence as well as U.K. mortgage approvals, and more ECB speakers ahead of a keynote speech from Fed’s Yellen. Germany sells 2-year Schatz notes and Italy also bonds.

ECB’s Draghi: “We will decide later this year on a re-calibration of our instruments that maintains the degree of monetary support that the euro area economy still needs”. “We are becoming more confident that inflation will eventual head to levels in line with our inflation aim, but also know that a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for the upward inflation path to materialize”. “we still see some uncertainties with respect to the medium-term inflation outlook”. “Recent volatility in the exchange rate represents a source of uncertainty which requires monitoring.”

FED: Fed’s Evans remains concerned over still low inflation expectations in his comments on monetary policy and the economy. This FOMC voter has been worried in recent months over the slowing in price pressures. He needs to see clearer signs of higher inflation before boosting rates again. He is not convinced weak inflation is such a transitory event, in comments to reporters. He added inflation expectations are not consistent with the Fed’s 2% goal, while he is confident that the current policy stance is appropriate. NY Fed’s Dudley spoke as well yesterday. Fed Dudley sees continued gradual policy tightening and temporary factors depressing inflation “fading.” The dovish voter expects the 2% inflation target to be reached in the medium-term and views economic fundamentals as “generally quite favorable,” though the hurricane effects should be short-lived and boost growth over time. Dudley expects the weaker dollar and overseas growth to boost the trade sector, supporting growth and wage gains.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB – ECB’s Praet speaking in “ Good Pension Design” lecture at 2nd ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt

FOMC – Cleveland Fed’s Mester moderates a session at NABE today, while Fed’s Brainard is due to give opening remarks at the Fed Conference in Washington. Fed Chair Yellen’s Is due to give a speech at the NABE conference at 19:45 GMT.

US Home Sales & Consumer Confidence – The Case-Shiller home price index is forecast to rise 0.1% in July. Consumer confidence is set to slip to 120.0 in September vs 122.9. And new home sales may drop 1.9% to a 588k pace in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:44 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 27th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 outperforming amid a rebound in tech stocks. Nikkei and ASX are in the red, the former dragged down by companies trading ex-dividend. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are moving higher, pointing to early gains on European stock markets, which are likely to keep upward pressure on Bund yields also as the most recent dip in the EUR won’t prevent the ECB from reigning in asset purchase volumes from next year. Today’s calendar has Eurozone M3 and credit growth numbers, as well as Italian confidence data and the U.K. CBI retailing survey. In Germany the focus will remain on the fallout from the election as Merkel faces tough coalition talks.

US reports: U.S. consumer confidence slipped to 119.8 from 120.4 (122.9) in August but a similar 120.0 in July, as the measure takes a likely hurricane hit. All the confidence surveys have strengthened sharply in 2017 despite some moderation from Q1 peaks, and what is now a small September setback after an August updraft. Consumer confidence remains close to the 16-year high of 124.9 in March. Confidence, producer sentiment and small business optimism have climbed since October of 2016 in the face of a factory rebound that is trimming excess capacity, equity and home price gains, and fiscal policy relief. The rise has defied restraint in GDP growth from ongoing inventory weakness. The 3.4% August U.S. new home sales drop to an expected 560k rate followed net downward revisions to leave a slightly weaker than expected report. The August new home sales drop included a 4.7% decline in the south, and Harvey and Irma will likely depress sales through September before a Q4 bounce.

Fed Chair Yellen: said the Fed should be “wary of moving too gradually,” in her written remarks on Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy before the NABE annual conference. So far the gradual approach has been appropriate due to the subdued pace of inflation, but low prices likely reflect factors that should fade. Meanwhile, she added that it is “imprudent” to keep policy on hold until inflation hits the 2% target. There are risks of overheating without modest rate hikes over time. Persistent easy policy can hurt financial stability. There was the usual caveat, however, that persistently low inflation could lead to a slower pace of tightenings. Nevertheless, the gist of her comments, and the leanings of the FOMC back at the September 19, 20 meeting, pretty much confirm a December tightening, unless there is some development between now and then to take if off the table. She also noted that the Fed’s inflation goal is symmetric and that the 2% level is not a ceiling. It would not be a tragedy to see inflation overshoot, she said.

Main Macro Events Today

US Goods & Home Sales – ECB’s Praet speaking in “ Good Pension Design” lecture at 2nd ECB Annual Research Conference in Frankfurt

BOC– Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks today. His speech follows Deputy Governor Lane’s speech last week, who perhaps signalled a more gradualist approach to rate hikes ahead. Lane said the Bank is paying close attention to the impact of the stronger Canadian dollar and that possible changes to NAFTA are a key source of uncertainty for Canada’s outlook. The loonie has seen a slight unwinding relative to the greenback since the Sep 8 announcement while the downside risk from NAFTA changes has been in play since last November’s U.S. election. Of course, mention of both those subjects (loonie, NAFTA) could be meaningful.

RBNZ Rates – The Case-Shiller home price index is forecast to rise 0.1% in July. Consumer confidence is set to slip to 120.0 in September vs 122.9. And new home sales may drop 1.9% to a 588k pace in August.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:56 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 28th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th September 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan outperforming today, as the dollar strengthened. Hang Seng and CSI 300 moved sideways as investors seemed to hold back ahead of a long holiday starting next Monday. The ASX was slightly higher as are FTSE 100 and U.S. futures. The European calendar has Eurozone ESI economic confidence, but political events and central banks remain in focus as traders assess U.S. tax plans, the fallout from the German election, Brexit talks, and now also the risk of a trade war between the U.K. and the U.S. So far both ECB and BoE remain on course to reduce the degree of monetary accommodation somewhat and that should keep yields on an uptrend, especially as stocks move higher.

Germany: German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly fell back slightly to 10.8 in the October projection from 10.9 in September, suggesting that the election cast its shadow. The full breakdown for the September reading showed a marked improvement in economic sentiment, but a sharp setback for income expectations and the willingness to buy also eased slightly, while inflation expectations turned less negative. Still strong confidence numbers that suggest consumers continue to underpin the recovery, but also indicate that energy price variations quickly leave a mark.

RBNZ held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Acting Governor Spencer saying “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” And a dovish bias was retained, as the Acting Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.” This was the same as in August, June and May. In other words, it looks like they won’t hesitate to add accommodation if downside risk to the economy manifest. The onus remains on the inflation and growth data, with additional undershoots setting the stage for further easing. But our base case is for no change into 2018. Notably, they observed that Q2 GDP was as expected while the slowing in Q2 annual CPI kept the measure inside the target range.

BoC’s Poloz: “it is a case of feeling your way as you go” he summarised when asked about what will happen to rates going forward. Indeed, his now concluded presser maintained the cautious tone seen in his prepared speech. He reiterated that we are in “uncharted territory for what economies have been through.” As for the rate hikes we’ve seen so far this year, it was a case of data dependence declared–data much stronger than expected–appropriate to move (and move again). He repeated that they are not on a predetermined course and must watch for important unknowns. As for the projected overshoot of the 2% inflation target in 2019, he nonchalantly said they have the 1-3% band for just that reason. Also of interest, he noted that it is typical at this point in the cycle to over-predict inflation The bank needs to “watch it unfold, fell the way with the data.” It seems that for 2018, the aggressive scenario has been uprooted by a “cautious” scenario until the data says otherwise, with two to three rate increases now factored in to leave a 1.75% to 2.00% setting by the end of the 2018. They “will continue to feel their way cautiously” as we get closer to “home.” Policy will be “particularly data dependent.” The Governor said “at a minimum” the two 2015 rate cuts are no longer needed. USDCAD shot up to 1.2431 from near 1.2350, the highest seen since September 1, following the release of BoC governor Poloz’s prepared remarks.

Main Macro Events Today

EU ESI– Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence is seen rising to 112.1 from 111.9., while Industrial and consumer confidence seems to stay unchanged.

US GDP, Jobless Claims & Goods Trade– The third and final print for Q2 GDP, shows a slight upward revision to a 3.1% clip from 3.0%. Advanced indicators goods trade deficit is expected to widen to -$65.0 bln vs -$65.1 bln, while initial jobless claims may or may not settle 11k higher at 270k after a relatively smooth ride last week despite the hurricane impact the week prior.

Speeches of the day – BOE Gov Carney and RBA Deputy Governor Debelle deliver a speech at the Bank of England conference in London today. Meanwhile, Thursday brings also Feds KC’s George who is due to discuss on monetary policy and the economy on BoE conference along with Fed VC Fischer, who is retiring next month. Significant is the fact that Prime Minister May is due to speak as well.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:19 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 29th September 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved modestly higher on the last day of the third quarter. Hopes that the U.S. tax reform will boost growth underpinned investor market sentiment, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for a third quarter of gains. Trading volumes were subdued, however, ahead of China’s week long holiday. FTSE 100 futures are up, U.S. futures narrowly mixed. Oil prices are slightly down on the day. European bond yields closed mixed yesterday, with Bunds closing up on the day, but far below intraday highs, while Gilt yields as well as Eurozone peripheral yields dropped. The chance that Eurozone inflation will hold steady today, rather than picking up again helped yields to come down from highs, but in our view won’t prevent the ECB from taking the foot off the accelerator. Already released U.K. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to -9 from -10. The data calendar also includes the final reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as consumer credit data.

FX Update: USDJPY picked up some demand while most other dollar pairings have traded narrow ranges so far today. USDJPY recovered from yesterday’s 112.25 low to the upper 112s. There had been reports yesterday of yen demand into the end of the first half of the fiscal year in Japan, though USDJPY still has rallied, returning focus on the two-and-a-half-month high seen on Wednesday at 113.25. While markets are now taking a more circumscribed view of Trump administrations tax plans, the Fed’s course further tightening is still promoting dollar demand on dips. A batch of data today out of Japan had little impact on forex markets, but encouraging. Japanese Core CPI lifted in September to 0.7% y/y, industrial production rose 2.1% m/m, and retail sales gained 2.8% y/y.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer steered clear of policy and the economic outlook in remarks before the Bank of England, where he discussed “The Independent Bank of England — 20 Years On.” It is still possible those topics may come up in Q&A. As he exited stage right in his last speach as Vice Chairman, he left the markets with this thought: “Or, if I may be permitted a few final words on my way out the door, the watchwords of the central banker should be “Semper vigilans,” because history and financial markets are masters of the art of surprise, and “Never say never,” because you will sometimes find yourself having to do things that you never thought you would.” KC Fed hawk George was true to form, noting further gradual rate hikes are appropriate. The stance of monetary policy is still rather accommodative, she added. She has a brighter outlook on global growth. The U.S. economy is in reasonably good shape currently. There has been a pick-up in business investment. And while there will be a near-term impact from the hurricanes, offsets are projected down the road. George is not an FOMC voter this year nor next.

Main Macro Events Today

EU HCPI and German Unemployment -Eurozone headline HICP inflation expected unchanged at 1.5% y/y in September. The French number may still stick a tad higher, but the slight decline in the Spanish headline rate and the steady German number yesterday suggest that the overall Eurozone number also held pretty stable, despite an uptick in energy prices.

CAD GDP – GDP is expected to improve 0.1% m/m in July after the 0.3% gain in July. The 0.2% dip in retail shipment volumes added to the mixed backdrop for the July GDP report.

US PCE – Personal income and spending are expected to have inched up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively in August, while consumer confidence measures are expected to dip, but from high levels. Core PCE prices are seen up 0.2%.

BoE – BOE Gov Carney is due give closing remarks at the Bank of England’s conference celebrating 20 years of independence, in London. In the conference we will see today also speeches from MPC members such as Broadbent and Cunliffe.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:28 am
by HFblogNews
HotForex: Upcoming October 2017 Webinars Part 1.

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Power your trades with industry tips and knowledge from our forex experts by signing up to our free weekly webinars.

Our webinars are designed to improve your FX knowledge and help you hone your trading skills to give you the confidence you need to trade the markets! Whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader, our seasoned market analysts will guide you through key forex strategies and concepts.

Every live webinar is followed by a Q&A session, giving you the opportunity to put your questions to the presenter!

We are committed to being with you every step of the way in your forex trading career, and by providing valuable forex education, we can give you a solid foundation to begin trading.

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Places are limited*, so book your free place now!

https://www.HotForex.com/sv/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html View our webinar lineup till 19th October 2017

03 October, 11:00 AM GMT: Live Analysis

In this live analysis webinar, our market expert Stuart will analyze forex, commodity and stock markets. This is a great learning opportunity for both new and proficient traders as you can ask all your questions on analysis, trading and risk management and find trading setups for the coming days.

* Watch as Stuart analyzes forex, commodity and stock markets in real time
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Instructor: Stuart Cowell, HotForex’s Senior Analyst

04 October, 11:00 AM GMT: Trading the Final Quarter 2017

The final quarter each year is often the most predictable and also the most volatile - a combination that can offer traders many opportunities from Forex to Equities and Commodities. Join Stuart today as he looks forward to the final quarter of 2017 to see how it may compare to previous final quarters.

* Q4 2017 – FX, Commodities & Equities
* Previous Q4 Trends
* Winter is Coming – but what does it mean?

Instructor: Stuart Cowell, HotForex’s Senior Analyst

05 October, 12:00 PM: Scalping Strategies

Senior trader and forex researcher, Kay will be your host for this dedicated webinar on forex scalping strategies in a session that will cover:

* Price action vs. mean reversion in scalping
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10 October, 11:00 AM GMT: Live Analysis

In this live analysis webinar, our market analyst Andria will analyze forex, commodity and stock markets. This is a great learning opportunity for both new and proficient traders as you can ask all your questions on analysis, trading and risk management and find trading setups for the coming days.

* Watch as Stuart analyzes forex, commodity and stock markets in real time
* Learn how professional traders approach analysis and trading
* Get your trading questions answered live

Instructor: Andria Pichidi, HotForex’s Analyst

12 October, 12:00 PM GMT: The Ichimoku-Renko Trading Strategy

In the first of a two-part series, senior trader and forex researcher, Kay will be discussing Ichimoku Clouds and Renko bricks and cover everything you need to know about this advanced trading strategy, including:

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Instructor: Kay, BlueSkyForex


18 October, 11:00 AM GMT: Trading with Trendlines

Trendlines help to keep traders on the right side of a move. Join Andria today as she explains the power and simplicity of this tool that is simple but often overlooked or used incorrectly, including:

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19 October, 12:00 PM GMT: Money Management in Forex

Money management is an essential skill for traders. Learn how to manage your capital and risk effectively in this informative webinar with senior trader and forex researcher, Kay. This webinar will cover key money management concepts:

* Price action vs. mean reversion in risk management
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Instructor: Kay, BlueSkyForex

If you have any questions, comments or feedback, please do not hesitate to contact our dedicated Customer Support Team via myHotForex, live chat, or by email webinars@HotForex.com.

Best Regards,

The HotForex Support Team


*Please Note: Places are limited and we cannot guarantee availability. On the day of the Webinar, make sure to dial in or login on time using the instructions in the confirmation email you receive following registration. When the maximum number of attendees is reached, no further registrants will be able to join.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:47 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 2nd October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd October 2017.


Image

FX News Today

The Trump bump seemed to get renewed life last week on the release of tax reform plans. That added to an already optimistic tone after signs of solid consumption growth and fixed investment in the U.S. Q2 GDP and with the strength in capital spending evidenced in the August durable goods. Meanwhile, the Asian and European economies are contributing to growth too, with the strength in recent PMIs underpinning positive outlooks.

United States: The September nonfarm payrolls will be the attention-getter which expected at 20k increase after the disappointing 156k gain in August. The September manufacturing ISM (Monday) should slip to 57.5 on the drag from Hurricane Irma, after a stronger than expected 2.5 increase to 58.8 in August. Construction spending for August (Monday) is expected to be unchanged. September vehicle sales (Tuesday) are expected to improve to a 17.0 mln clip, from 16.0 mln previously, though there’s downside risk from the hurricanes. The September ADP (Wednesday) should climb 190k following Augusts 237k surge. There should be little hurricane effect here given the way the data is tabulated. The services ISM (Wednesday) is seen edging up to 55.5 after rising 1.4 points to 55.3 previously. The August trade deficit (Thursday) is forecast narrowing to -$42.5 bln versus July’s -$43.7 bln.

Fedspeak: The U.S. calendar includes may of the key economic reports for the month, but Fedspeak is likely to overshadow, especially as the numbers will be impacted by the varied effects from the hurricanes. Fed Chair Yellen (Wednesday) will be an obvious focal point. Fed Chair Yellen’s comments will be monitored. But after reiterating the Fed’s gradual policy stance last week, she’s unlikely to provide any fresh revelations in her comments on community banking. Along with Yellen, other speakers include Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A (Monday). Governor Powell (Thursday) speaks on the Treasury market. SF Williams will be at a community banking event (Thursday). Harker and George (Thursday), along with Bostic and Kaplan (Friday), speak at a workforce development conference. NY Fed’s Dudley could be the most enlightening with his remarks on monetary policy (Friday). Also, Bullard speaks on the economy (Friday). Along with Yellen, current FOMC voters include Kaplan, Dudley, Powell, Harker, while Williams and Bostic are voters in 2018.

Canada: In Canada, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Leduc speaks on “Firm creation and productivity in the Canadian Economy.” The text of Tuesday’s speech will be available at 12:30 ET. Governor Poloz’s comments from last week provide some insight into the Bank’s view on this topic. The docket of economic data includes the usual early month suspects, notably trade and employment. Employment (Friday) is expected to expand 20.0k in September after the 22.2k rise in August. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.2%, matching August. The trade deficit is projected to slightly narrow to -C$2.9 bln in August from -C$3.0 bln in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to slip to 55.0 in September from 56.3 in August. The Markit manufacturing PMI for September is due Monday. Dealer reported vehicle sales for September are expected Tuesday.

Europe:It’s a relatively quiet week that’s thin on data releases, which are unlikely to bring any change to the ECB outlook. There are some ECBspeakers, while the central bank also releases the minutes of the last meeting (Thursday). Merkel’s quest for allies in the new parliament will continue, but is unlikely to make much progress in a week that includes a holiday on Tuesday. Merkel will remain in office as caretaker until a new Chancellor has been elected. The data calendar has final September PMI readings, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 58.2 and the Services reading (Wednesday) at 55.6, which should see the composite confirmed at 56.7. The highlight of the week will be German manufacturing orders (Friday) where we are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m, after the correction in August. Eurozone growth is broadening and strengthening and even the German recovery is for once underpinned by consumption and domestic demand rather than exports. And while the ECB has acknowledged the improvement, it still sees insufficient changes to underlying inflation to end QE just yet.

UK: Brexit remains a major uncertainty and there are several reasons for investors to tread carefully. Growth was confirmed to be weakest in four years and half the growth the Eurozone saw over the same quarter. Moody’s downgraded sovereign debt. And there have been fresh signals from Brexit negotiators that it’s going to take longer than expected to finalize divorce terms (and so delay the start of new trading talks). The calendar this week is highlighted by the release of PMIs for September, which will be scrutinized given the forward-looking nature of the surveys and their close correlation with real economic performance. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) has us expecting a dip to 56.2 from 56.9, correcting what had been unexpected strength in the August survey. This would still point to decent expansion in the sector, which has been the biggest beneficiary of the weaker pound and strong growth in key export markets. The construction PMI is on Tuesday while the services PMI on Wednesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is thin this week. QV new home prices for September are due Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on November 9. They held rates steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations. The statement by Acting Governor Spencer was consistent with no change in rates for an extended period.

Japan: A solid Tankan survey of business conditions out of Japan this morning, which showed optimism at small manufacturers to be at a decade high had little impact on the yen, with the BoJ still seen as being well behind the Fed in terms of cycle, with chronically tepid inflation still remaining a factor in Japan’s economic circumstance. The Tankan showed that labour shortages to be at a 25-year low, which could be the harbinger of second-round inflation via higher wage demands. September consumer confidence (Tuesday) is penciled in at 44.0 from 43.3, while September services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 52.0 from 51.6.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meets (Tuesday) and is expected to hold rates steady at 1.50%. Deputy Governor Debelle takes part in a panel discussion (Thursday). The data docket is headlined by retail sales (Thursday) and the trade balance (Thursday). Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in August after the flat reading (0.0%) in July. The trade surplus is seen improving to A$1.0 bln in August from the A$0.5 bln surplus in July. Building approvals are expected to bounce 2.0% m/m in August after the 1.7% drop in July. The Melbourne Institute inflation index for September is due Monday. September ANZ job ads are scheduled for Tuesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:01 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 3rd October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Topix and Nikkei reached fresh two year highs, Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong rallied as markets reopened after a holiday, benefiting from robust PMI data over the weekend and the PBOC’s announcement that it will cut reserve requirement ratio for next year. The Hang Seng is up 1.75%, the Nikkei gained 0.95% while the ASX 200 dropped -0.49%, as lower oil prices weighed on energy stocks and a sharp fall in QBE insurance, after the company detailed expected losses from recent hurricanes, dragged the index down. Mainland China remains closed for holidays. In Europe Germany is closed for a national holiday after Bunds were underpinned yesterday by intra-Eurozone safe haven flows following the escalation of Spanish tensions. Gilts outperformed with the US100 yesterday amid a broader rise in European stocks ex Spain, which benefited from USD strength. U.K. and U.S. stock futures suggest further gains today. Today’s data calendar is relatively quiet, with only Eurozone producer price inflation and the U.K. CIPS Construction PMI.

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises across the September ISM and August construction spending reports that add upside risk to forecasts for an Irma-depressed 120k September nonfarm payroll rise and a 3.0% growth rate for Q3 GDP. For the ISM, we saw a headline pop to a 13-year high of 60.8 from a 6-year high of 58.8 in August, as all the producer sentiment surveys are showing a sharp rise with the hurricane rebuild to new cycle-highs. The jobs index also rose, to a 6-year high of 60.3 in September from a prior 6-year high of 59.9. For construction, we saw a 0.5% August rise after upward revisions across the private construction components, though public construction was revised down sharply, and we now have a new cycle-low for that measure in July before a 0.7% August bounce.

FX Update: The dollar has continued to find demand, posting gains versus the euro, yen, sterling and Australian dollar, among other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index clocked a one-and-a-half-month peak at 93.77, while EURUSD traded below 1.1700 for the first time since mid August. USDJPY remained buoyant, albeit with upside momentum being crimped in the face of Japanese exporter offers above 113.00. The pair edged out a high at 113.19, which is six pips short of last week’s two-and-a-half-month peak. The dollar is in demand as markets continue to adjust to the rekindled hawkishness of the Fed, while the elevated tensions between Spain’s central government and the autonomous region of Catalonia have soured appetite for euros. The Australian dollar came under some pressure after the RBA left policy on hold, as was widely expected, but as the accompanying statement of Governor Lowe remained non committal in tone, acknowledging improving economic growth but reaffirming that the inflation outlook remains subdued. AUD-SD posted a two-and-a-half-month low at 0.7785.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Construction PMI – The construction PMI expected to come in unchanged at 51.0, a level indicating only weak expansion in the sector.

EU PPI – PPI is expected to improve 0.1% m/m in August and 2.3% y/y.

FOMC Powell – Governor Powell speaks at a financial regulation event jointly hosted by Reuters and George Washington University, in Washington DC, about regulatory reform.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:51 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 4th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th October 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, as USD weakens and Yen strength saw the Nikkei wiping out gains. The ASX also was under pressure as the dip in oil prices weighed on energy producers, while Chinese stocks in Hong Kong touched a 2-year high and the Hang Seng outperformed. US100 and U.S. stock futures are in the red, suggesting a weak start in Europe, after modest gains yesterday. Germany’s GER30 re-opens after yesterday’s holiday as Spain’s constitutional crisis continues and casts a shadow over the Eurozone. The data calendar includes the final reading of Eurozone services PMIs, as well as the U.K. services PMI and Eurozone retail sales. Germany sells 10-year Bunds.

FX Update: The dollar remained on the ebb, giving back some of the gains posted recently. The narrow trade-weighted USD index is showing a modest 0.2% loss as the London interbank opens, at 93.23, having extended the decline from yesterday’s six-week peak at 93.77. USDJPY ebbed under 112.50 after recent gains stalled above 113.00, where decent export offers were encountered. The pair left a high at 113.19 yesterday, which is 6 pips short of the near three-month high printed last week. The pair had rallied strongly from the early September low at 107.31, though momentum indicators have been turning lower over the last couple of weeks, despite spot making new highs — a divergence that often portends a trend change. EURUSD logged a two-session high at 1.1780, up from yesterday’s two-and-a-half-month low at 1.1696.

Canada: BoC’s Leduc did not directly address policy in his prepared remarks yesterday on the declining dynamism of Canada’s economy. Data show a “surprising and sustained decline in the entry rate of new firms since the early 1980s” he observed. He said “The main concern about the loss of dynamism is that it will lead to less innovation and diminishing long term growth.” As for Canada’s growth, he said it “has been strong, exceeding that of all other G7 countries.” He does find it “encouraging that the Canadian economy is still flexible enough to absorb a major shock” despite the decline in dynamism. He repeated Poloz’s observation that productivity has “increased significantly” since the middle of last year. There is nothing new here on policy or the economy, with the Lane/Poloz duo last month saying all that needed to be said for now. To review, they revealed a pivot to caution following back to back rate hikes in July and September as the economy surged in the first half of this year. Leduc said the growth rate should decline over next few quarters, but remain above potential. That is in-line with the July outlook and Poloz’s comments last month.

USDCAD turned a bit lower as Canadian yields edged up following BoC Leduc’s speech. The pairing had been idling on either side of 1.2510 since the open, before falling back to intra day lows of 1.2482. With oil prices off the boil this week, and narrowed prospects for a near term BoC rate hike, USDCAD upside appears to be the easier path.

Main Macro Events Today

EU and German Markit PMI – The Services EU reading is seen at 55.6, and should see the composite confirmed at 56.7, while German Service PMI and Composite anticipated unchanged at 55.6 and 57.8 respectively. The UK Service is seen unchanged as well at 53.2.

US ADP and ISM Non-Manuf. PMI – The September ADP should climb 125k following Augusts 237k surge. There should be little hurricane effect here given the way the data is tabulated. The services ISM is seen edging up to 55.5 after rising 1.4 points to 55.3 previously.

ECB – President Draghi is due to speak at the Inauguration of the ECB Visito Center in Frankfurt.

Fed’s Yellen- The market anxiously awaits Yellen’s comments today,which might be in vain, since she doesn’t take the podium until 15:15 ET, and then it’s merely to deliver opening remarks at a community banking event. That’s not a venue nor a topic for policy insights. Plus, there will be no Q&A. Nothing has changed since the September 19, 20 FOMC to alter the stance regarding the dot plot and the indication of one more hike this year, a stance which Yellen has tacitly approved. In terms of the Fed chair position, should Yellen not be reappointed, it seems to be a battle between Warsh and Powell, with the former’s threat to “shake up” the Fed a worry.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:24 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 5th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th October 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Another mixed session in Asia, where the Hang Seng continued to outperformed as China remained closed for holidays. ASX and Nikkei meanwhile moved sideways. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also little changed. No clear direction then for European markets, which will also have little to digest on the data front today. ECB speakers and the minutes of the last ECB meeting meanwhile are likely to confirm that the central bank is heading for a reduction in asset purchase volumes, but with the doves still shying away from a firm commitment to an end date for QE. Spain remains in focus as Madrid and Barcelona remain on confrontation course in a dangerous game of chicken.

FX Update: The Aussie came under pressure following the biggest contraction in Australian retailing sales in four years. The currency is showing a 0.5% decline on the day as the London interbank enters the fray, with AUD-USD logging a two-day low at 0.7819. The August report for Australian retail trade saw turnover unexpectedly contracting by 0.6% m/m, contrary to expectations for 0.3% m/m growth. Elsewhere, narrow ranges have prevailed. USD-JPY has plied a sideways path near 111.75, which is about the halfway mark of the range of the last week. EUR-USD has ebbed modestly lower, to the 1.1750 area and nearing yesterday’s low at 1.1746. The lack of direction reflects a general lack of fresh leads. Fed chair Yellen spoke yesterday after the London close, but she steered clear of policy and economic issues.

Main Macro Events Today

EU Minutes –

US Weekly Jobless number – Expectations – 265k down from last weeks 272k

BOE – Speeches – McCafferty and Haldane

FED Speeches – Powell (prospective new FED Chair), Harker and George

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:32 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 6th October 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th October 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: European stock markets moved broadly higher as U.S. factory orders boosted confidence in the global growth outlook. Chinese stocks in Hong Kong tested 2-year highs. Banks were underpinned as U.S. yields moved higher and the dollar strengthened. FTSE 100 futures are also up and the DAX is still trying to break the 13000 mark, as the focus turns to U.S. jobs data. In the Europe investors continue to watch the situation in Catalonia carefully. Spanish markets bounced back yesterday as the central government continues to take a hard line on Barcelona’s secession plans, while leaders in Catalonia seem to the pushing for talks. Indeed, for a long term solution both sides must return to the negotiating table.

FX Update: The dollar has been bid up again, after dipping mid week, gaining concomitantly with Treasury yields following a set of strong data out of the U.S. yesterday, along with relatively hawkish Fedspeack and with all three of the main U.S. equity indices setting record closing highs for a fourth straight session. USDJPY edged out a three-session high just above 113.00 and EURUSD clawed out a new seven-week low at 1.1686. USDCAD logged five-week highs, while Cable plumbed a one-month low. AUDUSD clocked a three-month low, at 0.7743, extending the down trend that’s been developing since the pair failed to sustain gains above 0.8000 between late July and September. Markets are now looking to the September employment report, up later today, savvy to temporary distortions caused by the hurricanes. A relatively subdued 120k headline increase is expected. There is also another barrage of Fed speakers due, which will almost certainly, on net, affirm that a rate hike is in the works for the December FOMC.

Main Macro Events Today

MPC Member Haldane Speech

Canadian Unemployment Rate – Expectations – 0.1% down from last month 6.2%

US NFP – Expectations – 66k down from last month 156k

FED Speeches – Kaplan , speak at a workforce development conference. NY Fed’s Dudley could be the most enlightening with his remarks on monetary policy. Also, Bullard speaks on the economy .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.