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Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:48 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 18th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south even as rate hike expectations are being pushed out, as investors turn their focus on U.S. politics and rising doubts over Trump’s reform agenda. In China markets continued to fret about the prospect of tighter regulations and Sunac China Holdings Ltd came under pressure in Hong Kong amid media reports that banks are looking into the company’s credit risk. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on exporters as markets re-opened after a long weekend, although it was the AUD that outperformed. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also down, while oil prices are holding marginally above USD 46 per barrel. Today’s calendar has German ZEW investor sentiment as well as the ECB’s bank lending survey, while the U.K. has inflation numbers for June. The ECB meeting on Thursday continues to hang over Eurozone markets, with investors concerned that Draghi may already drop the easing bias on QE.

U.S. reports: U.S. Empire State manufacturing index dropped 10.0 points to 9.8 in July, lower than expected, after rebounding 20.8 points to 19.8 in June. The latter was the highest since September 2014. Declines were broad-based. The employment component fell for a third consecutive month, sliding to 3.9 from 7.7, with the workweek at unchanged from 8.5. New orders fell to 13.3 from 18.1. But, prices paid edged up to 21.3 from 20.0, with prices received at 11.0 from 10.8. The 6-month general business outlook index eased to 34.9 from 41.7, with employment at 11.8 from 12.3. The future new order index was 33.4 from 42.2, with prices paid at 30.7 from 33.1 and prices received at 15.7 from 13.8. Capital expenditures are at 15.0 from 20.8, with technology spending at 11.8 from 11.5.

Final June EMU HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.3% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.4% y/y in May. The breakdown confirmed that the deceleration in the headline rate was mainly due to lower energy price inflation, which dropped back to just 1.9% y/y from 4.5% y/y in the previous month. Services price inflation meanwhile accelerated to 1.6% y/y. Still, while core inflation moved up from the 0.9% y/y in May, at 1.1% y/y it remains far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability and prices for non-energy industrial goods rose just 0.4% y/y, so plenty there for the doves at the ECB to argue with. Against that background Draghi is likely to stick to the message from June at this week’s council meeting and try to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – ZEW investor confidence today is likely to reflect market concerns about the impact of tapering as global central banks eye exit steps. A slight decline in the headline July number to 18.3 is expected from June’s 18.6. Those are still strong level, indicating that optimists outnumber pessimists, and so should not spark fresh growth concerns, although after some disappointing U.S. data and cautious comments from Yellen, it will underpin the halt in the rise in yields.

UK PPI & CPI – The June inflation report expected with headline CPI to remain at 2.9% y/y, a four-year high. The sharp y/y weakening in sterling following the Brexit vote in June last year has kindled inflation, and at least three of the current eight-member MPC committee (normally nine, with one position currently vacant) are now itching to reverse last August’s 25 bp cut in the repo rate. The PPI for June expected to decrease at -1.0% from -1.3% last month.

BoE Gov. Carney – BoE Governor Carney will give a speech today at the unveil of the new £10 note, in Hampshire.

US Trade Data & NAHB – The June trade price data will be of interest. Import prices are forecast falling 0.5% after dipping 0.3% in May, with petroleum the main factor behind the weakness. Export prices should edge up 0.1% following a 0.7% drop in May where declines in food and ag prices weighed. Other releases for today are the NAHB homebuilder survey for July and May Treasury capital flows .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:17 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 19th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, as USD steadied. The ASX is outperforming despite ongoing strength in AUD and FTSE 100 futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures. Long yields picked up in the U.S. and Japan, but the September Bund contract moved higher in after hour trade yesterday, suggesting opening gains in Bund futures, after yesterday’s sharp drop in European yields. Oil prices are slightly down, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 46 per barrel. Today’s European calendar is quiet, with a German 30-year auction and Eurozone construction output the only highlights, leaving the focus firmly on U.S. political events and the ECB meeting tomorrow.

ACA reform: A smattering of healthcare headlines in wake of the ACA reform abandonment and now chorus of outright repeal calls suggests the debate appears to be disintegrating further. Republican senators Collins, Portman and Capito indicated that they would vote against a repeal without a replacement plan. In contrast, Vice President Pence said he and Trump would “fully support” leader McConnell’s decision to move forward with a bill that only repeals Obamacare in a “fresh start.” Pence warned that congressional inaction “is not an option and congress needs to do their job.” Senate Democratic leader Schumer said an Obamacare repeal without replacement would be a “disaster.” Meanwhile, House Budget Chairwoman Black said she expects the Republican budget to pass the panel and full House vote. Trump’s postscript on ACA reform was aired live and he confirmed that he was “disappointed” that after hearing repeal/replace on healthcare for 7-years that the votes weren’t there. He didn’t consider the renegade votes “disloyal,” but said that more effort would need to take place to get more Republicans in seats in 2018. Trump then reiterated his fallback plan of letting Obamacare fail and predicted the Dems would come back at that point to replace it or come up with something else.

U.S. reports: import prices fell 0.2% in June, with export prices off 0.2% as well. The 0.3% decline in May import prices was revised up to -0.1%, while May export prices were nudged to -0.5% from -0.7% previously. Petroleum import prices dropped another 2.2% (a fourth straight monthly slide) versus -1.2% previously (revised from -3.9%). As for export prices, agriculture prices dropped 1.5% from -1.6%, with foods, beverages at -1.6% from -2.0%, with industrial supplies flat from -1.3%. Excluding ag, export prices were flat. Slowing inflation remains the theme into the summer months and that should support Treasury gains. U.S. NAHB homebuilder sentiment index fell 2 points to 64 in July, below expectations, after falling 3 points to 66 in June (revised from 67). It’s the lowest since 63 in October, and below the 67 6-month average, but it is well up from the 58 a year ago. The current single-family sales index dropped 2 points 70 from 72 last month. The future sales index also declined 2 points to 73 from 75. The index of prospective buyer traffic slid to 48 after dropping 2 ticks to 49 previously. The NAHB indicated tariffs on Canadian lumber are weighing.

Eurozone: UK June CPI unexpectedly softened to 2.6% y/y after May’s cycle-high rate of 2.9% y/y. The median forecast had been for an unchanged 2.9% outcome. The ebb is in sync with the directional pattern seen in inflation readings in other key economies in June, although price pressures in the UK remain relatively more elevated due to the inflationary consequences of the sharp y/y sterling decline following the Brexit vote at the end of June last year. A decline in motor fuels was a key factor driving the headline rate lower, along with the prices of recreational and cultural goods and services. German ZEW investor confidence weaker than expected, with the expectations reading falling back to 17.5 in July from 18.6 in the previous month. Expectations had been for a correction in sentiment amid the realization that global central bank support has peaked, but the dip is still more pronounced than anticipated, especially as the current conditions indicator also fell back. More arguments then for the doves at the ECB who are eager not to let markets price in tapering steps too early and we expect Draghi to try and calm nerves at this week’s council meeting, which will be the last ahead of a summer break, with the next meeting only scheduled for September.

Main Macro Events Today

US Housing Starts – Housing starts are forecast rising to a 1,160k pace in June following the 5.5% drop to 1,092k in May. However, a rise in construction jobs last month suggests upside risk.

Canada Manufacturing – Manufacturing shipments, due today, are expected to reveal a 1.0% m/m gain in May after the 1.1% rise in April. Forecast is supported by a 1.3% improvement in export values during May. However, gold shipments to the U.K. were a driver of total exports, suggesting some downside risk for our manufacturing shipments projection. An as-expected rebound in shipments would be supportive of the “improving” narrative for Canada’s economy this year, and hence underpin expectations for one more rate hike this year.

Japanese Trade – Data includes the June trade report. The balance expected to flip to a JPY 500.0 bln surplus, from the JPY 204.2 bln shortfall in May. The Exports and Imports expected to fall by 5.4% and 3.2% respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:08 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 20th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, led by Japan, as the BoJ kept its accommodative policy unchanged and the Yen weakened. FTSE 100 futures are also higher, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. The eyes are now turning to the ECB, which is expected to follow the BoJ’s lead and keep not only current policy, but the forward guidance unchanged. There is some lingering concern that the central bank could already drop the easing bias on QE at today’s meeting, so Bunds could get a boost from Draghi’s attempts to calm tapering nerves ahead of the summer break. The European data calendar has U.K. retail sales, as well as Eurozone current account and BoP data for May.

U.S. reports:. housing starts rebounded 8.3% to a 1.215 mln pace in June, better than forecast, after the 2.8% decline in May to 1.122 mln. The gain breaks a string of three straight monthly declines, and it’s only the second increase of the year. Single family starts rose 6.3% versus -2.9% previously, while multifamily starts jumped 13.3% from -2.4%. Building permits increased 7.4% to 1.254 after falling 4.9% to 1.168 mln. Regionally, starts surged in the Northeast (83.7%) and in the Midwest (22.0%), and were up in the West (1.6%), while they declined in the South (-3.8%). Housing completions improved 5.2% to 1.203 mln after increasing 4.2% to 1.144 mln.

Canada: manufacturing shipment values grew 1.1% in May, as expected, but after a sharp downward revision in April to a 0.4% gain (was +1.1%). A 4.2% gain in transport equipment sales and a 2.4% rise in chemical sales drove the increase total manufacturing shipments during May. Manufacturing sales slipped 0.1% when motor vehicles, parts and accessories are excluded. A total of 16 out of 21 industries reported an improvement in sales values. Durable goods sales grew 2.2% while non-durables dipped 0.3%. Notably, lower prices knocked petroleum and coal industry sales values 3.4% lower in May. Manufacturing sales volumes expanded 1.1% m/m in May, supportive of continued momentum in May GDP. A 0.2% m/m gain in May GDP is expected after the 0.2% rise in April. The report is supportive of the Bank’s upbeat growth outlook, in turn underpinning projections for a near term rate hike. Another 25 bp move is expected in October after no change in September.

German: PPI inflation fell back to 2.4% y/y in June, from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. A tad higher than anticipated, but still continuing the recent downtrend as oil prices turn out to be weaker than previously thought. Headline Eurozone inflation also fell back in June as energy price inflation eased, so there is no really new message from the German PPI numbers, although at 2.4% y/y, the numbers remain elevated.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – Official retail sales for June expected at a 0.2% m/m rebound after the sharp 1.2% contracting on May.

ECB Rate Decision, Monetary Policy statement & Conference – After the ECB removed the easing bias on rates in June, but still maintained an easing bias on QE, the central bank expected to keep policy parameters unchanged at today’s council meeting, which will be followed by a longer summer break. The message today is likely to remain that the economy may be improving but still needs a substantial degree of monetary support and cautious remarks from Draghi should underpin bonds, even if a no-change outcome is widely expected.

US Jobless Claims – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to be 245k in the week-ended July 15. Meanwhile the July Philly Fed index should dip to 24.0 following the 11.2 slide to 27.6 in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:32 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 21st July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are slightly down, as banks and carmakers weighed on the index and the Yen held gains while investors look with some concern to political events in the U.S. In Europe, Draghi failed to calm tapering nerves yesterday and the EUR surged higher in the wake of the press conference, which saw Eurozone stock markets closing in the red. After the tumultuous afternoon, yesterday the GER30 seems to be heading for a quiet end to the week. The FTSE 100 outperformed yesterday and managed slight gains, amid a weak pound and could get some support today from reports that the government is accepting the need for a transitional period that will see the U.K. remaining in the single market and customs union for some time after 2019. Today’s data calendar is quiet, focusing on U.K. public finance data, although the ECB’s survey of professional forecasters could also attract some attention.

FX Update: The euro has been in consolidation mode after rallying strongly yesterday in the wake of the ECB’s policy announcement, which has left markets anticipating a tapering in QE, even it is still some way down the road. EURUSD has been settled in the mid-to-low 1.16s, below the 23-month high logged yesterday at 1.1658, although lifting somewhat in early European trade. EURJPY managed to edge out a fresh 10-day high, at 130.32. EURGBP has plied a narrow range just of yesterday’s eight-month peak 0.8977, weighed on slightly by a bid in Cable, which has lifted above 1.2980, putting in a little distance from the five-session low it saw yesterday at 1.2933. The UK’s international trade secretary, Fox, said that he is not planning on leaving the EU in 2019 without a deal, although the prime minster and other ministers had formerly used this “cliff edge” threat as an apparent bargaining tool in pre-negotiation salvos. Fox said that could be a two-year “implementation phase,” or transition period. His remarks help allay market concerns of divisions in the government’s approach to Brexit.

ECB’s President Draghi: Yesterday’s ECB meeting didn’t bring any real surprises. Rates and forward guidance were left unchanged and Draghi was eager to calm nerves ahead of the summer break as he tried to explain and clarify his comments from Sintra, which sent yields sharply higher at the end of last month. As Draghi said the last thing the ECB wants is for financing conditions to tighten prematurely and against that background, the central bank is not just keeping the easing bias on QE in place, but also remains reluctant to commit not just to actual tapering, but to the timing of the decision on the future of asset purchases. Also, yesterday Eurozone consumer confidence unexpectedly fell back to -1.7 in July from -1.3 in the previous month. Expectations had been for another improvement as labour markets continue to stabilise and inflation falls back again, but it seems lingering concern remains U.S. equities rolled over from highs coinciding with a surge in the euro through 1.16 and another whipsaw on yields. The presumption is that the ECB/euro/bund axis is still driving the volatile trade, but there was also a US AG Sessions presser expressing his wish to continue with his job at the Justice Department, along with others, despite criticism from President Trump.

U.S. reports: revealed a big Philly Fed drop to a still-solid 19.5, following a 7-month stretch of oddly robust levels, while initial claims tightened by 15k to 233k in the BLS survey week after lofty readings as we entered the July auto retooling period. We also saw a 0.6% leading indicators surge that left a 10-month string of gains. The Philly Fed drop accompanied an Empire State July decline to 9.8 from a 3-year high of 19.8 in June, while the ISM-adjusted Empire State fell to 53.3 from a 6-year high of 56.2, leaving a resumption of the drop-back in the available producer sentiment figures after an unexpected June bounce. The mix left a neutral signal for 190k July nonfarm payroll estimate, and an assumed GDP growth bounce to 2.6% in Q2 and 3.1% in Q3 after a 1.4% Q1 rate.

Main Macro Events Today

CAD CPI – The CPI, expected, to dip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in May, leaving a slowing in the annual growth rate to 1.0% in June from the 1.3% y/y pace in May. Gasoline prices pulled back in June compared to May, which drives forecasts. The three core CPI measures remained tame in May, and are expected to be subdued in June.

CAD Retail Sales – The Retail sales, expected to rise 0.3% gain in May after the 0.8% bounce in April. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen improving 0.1% in May following the 1.5% surge in April. Gasoline prices tumbled 4.0% m/m in May after the 9.5% gain in April, according to the CPI. Hence, gasoline station sales should exert only a hefty drag on total and ex-autos retail sales. But vehicle sales were solid in May, which should support total sales.

UK Public Finance data – June’s Public borrowing data is also up today, and expected to go down to 4.80B from 5.99B last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:28 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 22nd July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd July 2017.


Image

FX News Today

Both the ECB and BoJ met expectations as each left policy unchanged last week, though the outlook for ECB remains under the dark cloud of future QE tapering, while the BoJ gave up the ghost on its inflation target near-term. The FOMC is set to follow suit and kick the policy can down the road this week, though the markets will remain highly attuned to any hints over the outlook on inflation, the economy, and the balance sheet unwinding timing/

United States: In the U.S., the FOMC is not likely to make any policy changes at the July 25-26 meeting. The slowing in inflation is likely to keep the Fed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, there has been some speculation the Fed could announce the start of QT (quantitative tightening) this week. The economic calendar resumes with existing home sales (Monday) forecast to rise 0.4% to a 5.64 mln unit pace in June. Various May home price indices are due (Tuesday), including the Case-Shiller and FHFA readings. Consumer confidence is also on tap (Tuesday), but expected to slip to 117.0 for July from 118.9, while the Richmond Fed index is seen steady at 7. The MBA mortgage market indices are due (Wednesday), along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June. Durable goods orders are forecast to snap back 2.7% in June vs -0.8% in May (Thursday). Advance Q2 GDP should be boosted to 2.6% from 1.4% in Q1 (Friday), given upside risk on consumption, while Q2 ECI is forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.8% and final Michigan sentiment may be revised up to 93.5 from 93.1 previously. Fedspeak continues to run silent into the FOMC decision midweek before Minneapolis Fed’s dovish dissenter Kashkari breaks the ice with a moderated Q&A Chamber of Commerce event from 13:20 ET (Friday)

Canada: In Canada GDP for May (Friday) is the centerpiece of this week’s calendar. An 0.2% m/m gain is projected for May, which would match the 0.2% increase revealed in April. An as-expected improvement in May GDP would leave real GDP growth on track for a roughly 3% gain following the 3.7% surge in Q1, which would match the BoC estimate for Q2 GDP and hence be supportive of the already widespread projection for a near tear rate hike. Wholesale trade (Monday) is seen improving 0.7% after the 1.0% gain in April. The report typically has little lasting impact on the market, but will be the final input into the May GDP projection. May average weekly earnings and the CFIB’s Business Barometer index of small and medium sized business sentiment are both due on Thursday.

Europe: The ECB went into the summer break with a parting shot that once again acknowledged stronger growth while stressing that substantial monetary accommodation remains necessary and that inflation is not where the ECB wants to it see yet. This week brings the first key GDP readings for Q2 and French growth seen steady, while Spanish growth is expected to come in unchanged at 0.8% q/q. A robust second quarter would tie-in with improved confidence indicators, although looking ahead, it may feel as though that is as good as it gets for now, with July confidence indicators expected to fall back slightly. A decline in the manufacturing PMI to 57.2 expected and a marginally better service reading of 55.4 which would leave the July composite PMI unchanged at 56.2. Risks are to the downside though, considering the second consecutive dip in German ZEW investor confidence and as the euphoria over Macron’s election victory fades and political risks ease. July Eurozone Economic Confidence is expected to have eased to 110.9 from 111.1 in June.

Inflation, meanwhile, remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. Growth forecasts may have been revised up, but inflation forecasts are being scaled back with the latest surge in the EUR doing nothing to change the picture that a strong currency and weaker than projected oil prices will keep headline inflation subdued.

UK: The calendar this week features the first release of Q2 GDP (Wednesday), which it is expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy. Other data releases include the CBI’s July surveys, with the industrial trends report (Tuesday) seen ebbing to 11 in the headline total orders reading after 16 in the prior month, while the distributive trades report (Thursday) is expected to fall to a reading of 10 in the headline realized sales figure after 12 in June.

Japan: Japan’s docket gets under way on Wednesday, with June services PPI due. Prices expected at 0.5% y/y versus the previous 0.7% outcome. The remainder of the calendar comes on Friday, starting with CPI data. June national prices are seen slowing to 0.3% y/y from 0.4% overall, and up 0.3% y/y from 0.4% on a core basis. June unemployment is seen falling a tenth to 3.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is expected at 1.50 from 1.49. June personal income and PCE are due, with the latter forecast to have risen 0.5% y/y from -0.1% previously. June retail sales are penciled in at a 0.5% y/y rate from -0.6% for larger retailers, and up 3.0% y/y from 2.1% overall

Australia: In Australia, the Q2 CPI (Wednesday) takes center stage given the global focus on inflation. The latter was discussed at the July 4 policy meeting. Trade prices (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% in Q2 (q/q, sa) for imports and falling 6.0% for exports. The Q2 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks on the Labor Market and Monetary Policy (Wednesday) form Sydney.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has June trade (Wednesday), expected to reveal a NZ$150 mln surplus following the NZ$103 mln surplus in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:39 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 23rd July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved sideways, fluctuating between gains and losses ahead of the Fed meeting. Asia’s equity benchmark remains near the highest level since 2007, and the ASX managed a nearly 0.9% gain so far, despite a stronger AUD as oil prices moved higher. The Fed is likely to remain on hold this week and could push out further action on rates, but markets are still cautious, with U.S. stock futures also moving sideways, although the FTSE 100 future is managing gains, as the pound retreats. The EUR meanwhile is on the rise again and Mersch’s comments on reflation and his more optimistic view on inflation and growth could also see fresh pressure on Bund futures. The 10-year cash yield already moved up from lows in late trade yesterday and closed above 0.50% and indeed, while Draghi may have been eager to calm nerves ahead of the summer, tapering is still on the agenda for next year.

US Data: U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI jumped 1.2 points to 53.2 in the July preliminary print after falling 0.7 points to 52.0 in June. It was 52.9 a year ago. This is a 14th consecutive month of expansion. Also, the bounce breaks a string of declines going back to the start of the year after the gauge hit 55.0 in January, reflecting increased momentum as the second half of the year begins after the slowing in Q1 and Q2. The index hit a recent low of 50.7 in May 2016. The preliminary July services index was unchanged at 54.2 after rising 0.6 points in June 53.6 in May. It was 51.4 a year ago. It’s a 17th straight month of expansion and has been fairly stable in the 53.5 area all year since hitting a high of 55.6 in January. Employment rose to 54.4 from 52.8 previously and is the highest reading since December. Prices charged fell. The flash composite index rose 0.3 points to 54.2 in July from 53.9 in June and is the highest reading since January. It was 51.8 a year ago. Employment and new orders improved.

SNB’s Jordan: CHF still significantly overvalued. The central bank head said in an interview with Le Temp, conducted last week and published late yesterday that this means the SNB is sticking with its policy of low interest rates and intervention on forex markets if needed. Jordan added that inflation remains low with production capacity not fully exhausted. He stressed that the central bank still has enough room to manoeuvre to expand the balance sheet if necessary. The USDCHF was relatively unmoved and trades at 0.9464 down from overnight highs of 0.9476

FX Update:. Narrow ranges have been the order of the day so far, with a combo of a dearth of fresh directional cues, summertime thinness, and the looming proximity of the Fed’s policy announcement (tomorrow) fostering a noncommittal market. USDJPY dipped back under 111.00, reflective of a broad though moderate bid in the yen, which has been seen since just after the Tokyo fix. Stock markets in Asia have seen little direction. EURUSD has continued to oscillate around the 1.1650 level for a second day, holding below the 23-month high at 1.1684 that was pegged in the Asia session on Monday. AUDUSD continued to consolidate the sharp gains the pair saw last week. Cable has remained buoyant above 1.3000, though off yesterday’s four-session peak at 1.3058.

Main Macro Events Today

German Ifo Business Climate – After yesterday’s disappointing July PMI readings, the German Ifo index tomorrow also comes with a risk to the downside. We had been looking for a drop to 114.9 (med same) from 115.1 in the previous month, but the risk is that the headline number comes in even weaker. Like the PMIs, the Ifo reading is likely to remain at high levels, indicating a robust start to Q3, but after what looked like another strong quarterly growth rate in Q2 it seems with regard to survey indicators this may have been as good as it gets. That doesn’t mean the recovery is abandoned or at risk, but the euphoria that seem to hit sentiment in the wake of the Macron victory is giving way to a more sober assessment. The good news though is that the PMIs point to ongoing improvements on labour markets, so companies continue to invest into the recovery and while the data will back Draghi’s reluctance to commit to QE just yet, it is clear that monthly asset purchases will be scaled back with the new program that will start next year.

US Consumer Confidence – June Consumer Confidence is expected to fall to 117.0 from 118.9, this compares to a low of 25.3 in February of 2009. Forecast risk: downward, given the decrease in the Michigan headline and Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact rate hike timelines. Confidence continues to benefit from reduced gasoline prices and is now experiencing a post-election lift.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:34 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 26th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Positive leads from the U.S., including corporate earnings, and broad-based gains in commodities helped the global stock move higher to continue in Asia overnight at least in the first part of the session. The CSI 300 is in the red, however, and the Hang Seng underperforming with a meagre 0.17% gain, and Japanese markets are down from early highs while FTSE 100 and U.S. stock futures are in the red. So, some caution is settling in again ahead of the Fed announcement today with some speculation that the Fed could announce the start of quantitative tightening as early as today. In Europe, the ECB is still far away from reducing its balance sheet, and while QE tapering is on the cards for 2018, Nowotny yesterday argued against committing to an end to asset purchases. Today’s calendar focuses on the first reading of Q2 GDP from the U.K, while all eyes will be on the Fed’s post FOMC meeting announcement and guidance. The big question is whether the central bank will detail plans to unwind QE, though we think not as inflation data has been benign and there hasn’t been any rhetorical prepping by members for such a policy shift since the issue was brought up at the June policy meeting.

Australia: Earlier today, the Aussie dollar took a rap following sub-forecast CPI data out of Australia, which came in at 1.9% y/y in Q2 versus the median forecast for 2.2% y/y, while the underlying rate remained stubbornly below the RBA’s target range. AUDUSD is just off its lows, at 0.7884 bid presently, showing a 0.7% decline on the day as the London interbank market take to their seats. The Aussie is showing a similar magnitude of decline versus the yen and euro, too.

U.S. reports: revealed upside July surprises for both consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed, alongside a firm but largely seasonal 0.8% May rise for the S&P Case Shiller. For consumer confidence, we say a July pop to 121.1 from 117.3 (was 118.9) that left this measure at its strongest level since the 16-year high of 124.9 in March, with a rise in the current conditions index to a 147.8 new cycle-high, despite drops in other July confidence measures. For Richmond Fed, we saw a rise to 14.0, after revisions that lifted recent levels to 11.0 (was 7.0) in June and 3.0 (was 1.0) in May, versus a 7-year high of 19.0 (was 17.0) in February. This increase bucked declines in other producer sentiment measures, though the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys should still tick down to 55 in July from 56 in June, 55 in May, 56 in April, and a 57 cycle-high in February and March. Nevertheless, yesterday U.S. Senate voted to move ahead on repealing Obamacare. Initially fifty GOP senators voted yes, with two voting no, for a total of 50, while not a Democrat voted for the measure. Hence Vice president Mike Pence as Reuters reported, forced to cast the tie-breaking vote. The EURUSD had retreated from 1.1712 highs, after failing to take out the August 2015 high of 1.1714. Profit taking out of London had reportedly been in play, with the pairing dipping to 1.1657 lows.

ECB’s Nowotny against committing to end date for QE: Nowotny said in an interview yesterday that he considers it “wise to step of the gas slowly”, adding that “the U.S. central bank also implemented tapering without committing to a definite timetable”. The QE program currently runs until the end of the year and the ECB iw widely expected to reduce monthly purchase targets again with a follow up program, but Nowotny’s comments suggest that the ECB may not yet lay out a full-time table for a final end to QE and indeed given Draghi’s very cautious stance so far, it seems more likely that the ECB won’t commit to a fixed data for the end of QE. The IMf also urged the ECB to maintain stimulus as underlying inflation and wage growth remains weak and with inflation expected to ease again next year, Draghi seems to have room for a gradual approach.

German Jul Ifo index unexpectedly jumped to 116.0 from 115.2. Expectations had been for a slight correction in the headline reading, especially after Monday’s disappointing PMI readings. The breakdown showed that the overall improvement was entirely due to a sharp rise in the current conditions indicator, while the more forward-looking expectations index stagnated. So the message is not unlike that of the PMIs, which showed ongoing robust growth, but a slowdown in the pace of expansion. A strong German Ifo figure, upbeat ECBspeak and the release of the BoJ minutes from the mid-June meeting all failed to stir markets, with participants looking to tomorrow’s policy announcement and communication from the Fed as the next key risk event. The yen has been following its often-seen inverse correlation with global stock markets, which have been mostly buoyant this week, underpinned by incoming corporate earnings and guidance, yesterday’s record print in the latest German Ifo indicator, and expectations for the Fed to affirm its slow-go approach to tightening following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today. The minutes from the BoJ’s mid-June policy meeting, released yesterday, meanwhile showed that members discussed the idea of QE tempering, but were still worried about the persistence of well below target inflation.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC – FOMC began day 1 of its 2day meeting. No major changes are expected in Wednesday’s announcement (14 ET). The Fed is widely expected to leave its 1.00% to 1.25% rate band in place due to the slowing in inflation. Committee members have also indicated they want more evidence of a pick-up in growth after the disappointing 1.4% Q1 pace, though recent data should be fulfilling that need.

US Home sales, MBA & EIA – The MBA mortgage market indices are due today, along with the EIA energy inventory report and new home sales may decrease 2.5% to a 595k pace in June, down from 610k in May.

UK GDP – The calendar features the first release of Q2 GDP, which expected to rise 0.3% q/q and by 1.7% y/y, which would follow respective Q1 figures of 0.2% and 2.0%. The quarterly pace of growth likely remained relatively lackluster in Q1 compared to growth in the Eurozone and the U.S., and the same picture looks likely to be painted again this quarter. Weakness in sterling following the Brexit vote last June has fed a secular rise in UK inflation, which in turn has eroded household incomes and consumer spending, which in recent years of government austerity has been the main driver of the economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.



Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:58 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 27th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: The Fed’s reluctance to commit to a time for QT beyond “relatively soon” and the fact that the Fed appeared to be moderately more concerned that the decline in inflation pressures could be a little more durable than previously thought has given bond as well as stock markets a fresh boost. Equities moved mostly higher in Asia overnight (China’s CSI 300) once again a notable exception, with commodities still underpinned as oil prices hold clearly above USD 48 per barrel. Bund futures already jumped higher in after hour trade yesterday and European stock futures are rising in tandem with U.S. futures, pointing to broad gains on European markets at the start. ECB’s Nowotny may have repeated his support for reduced asset purchases again, but that the ECB will start to taper next year is pretty much expected and Nowotny yesterday urged caution when the ECB starts to “take the foot of the gas”. Today’s calendar has Eurozone M3 and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey.

German GfK consumer confidence surges to record high of 10.8 from 10.6 in the previous month. The unexpected jump higher ties in with record Ifo readings and confirms that the German recovery remains firmly on track. More arguments for the ECB to take the “foot off the gas” and reduce monthly asset purchases. The full GfK breakdown, which is only available until July showed also falling price expectations though, alongside improved economic confidence and the willingness to buy dipped despite a sharp drop in the willingness to save. Hence, some mixed signals and somethings for the doves, who continue to fret about low inflation and wage growth.

FOMC: held rates steady and gave no firm date on the balance sheet unwind. However, the policy statement did indicate the run-off will begin “relatively soon,” versus this year in the June statement, though it basically reiterated comments from Fed Chair Yellen in her recent testimony. The decision was unanimous. The Fed said the economy has been rising moderately while job gains have been “solid.” On inflation, the Fed said overall and core prices have “declined and are running below 2 percent; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.” Inflation developments will continue to be monitored “closely.” One important change versus the June statement was the elimination of word “recently,” referring to the decline in inflation, suggesting there’s some concern the weakening will be more long lasting.

U.S. reports: revealed rise in MBA mortgage market index at 0.4%, alongside a 2.2% drop in the purchase index and a 3.4% rise in the refinancing index for the week ended July 21. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sank 5 basis points to 4.17% after yields drifted lower last week with Europe. Also, U.S. new home sales edged up 0.8% to 0.610 mln in June. That follows the 4.9% rebound to 0.605 mln in May after the 9.6% April drop to 0.577, for a net -27k revision. New home sales hit a cycle high of 0.638 mln in March amid mild winter weather and hopes for Trump stimulus. The months’ supply of homes moved up to 5.4 from 5.3. The median sales price declined 4.2% to $310,800 following the 4.8% rise to $324,300 in May. Prices are down 3.4% y/y in June versus a 9.6% y/y gain previously.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable goods, Jobless claims – Durable goods orders are forecast to snap back 3.0% in June vs -0.8% in May, while the advanced trade gap may narrow to-$65 bln from -$66.3 bln and initial jobless claims are set to rebound 8k to 241k for the week ended July-22.

UK CBI distributive trade & Gfk – The distributive trades report is expected to fall to a reading of 10% in the headline realized sales figure after 12% in June.The GfK Group Consumer Confidence index is expected to fall to a reading of -11 after -10 in June.

Japanese Data – The calendar features the CPI data. June national prices are seen unchanged at 0.4% overall, and same for a core basis. June unemployment is seen falling a tenth to 3.0%, while the job offers/seekers ratio is expected at 1.50 from 1.49. June personal income and PCE are due, with the latter forecast to have risen 0.6% y/y from -0.1% previously. Lastly, June retail sales are penciled in at a 0.1% y/y rate from -0.6% for larger retailers, and up 2.3% y/y from 2.1% overall..

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Fri Jul 28, 2017 8:26 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 28th July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th July 2017.


FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk appetite turned negative during the Asian session, with equity markets, including U.S. index futures, turning lower from record highs. This backdrop will likely put pressure on EGB yields from the open. The European calendar today features a flood of data releases, highlighted by advance Q2 GDP figures out of France and Spain, and preliminary inflation figures for July from various key economies out of the Eurozone, which will be a big focus for markets given the ECB’s course to taper QE. French HICP is expected unchanged at 0.8% y/y, and German HICP is seen at holding at 1.5% y/y, which would also be unchanged from the previous month. Data in line with our expectations would not likely elicit much market reaction. The Eurozone also has the latest business climate survey for July, where the headline is expected at 100.9, down from 111.1 in the previous month.

FX Update: The Swiss franc tumbled for a four-straight session, driving EURCHF to a 1.1363 high, a level not seen since the SNB abandoned its former 1.2000 floor in January 2015. USDCHF, meanwhile, rallied to a one-month peak, at 0.9721. The price action affirms the sentiment sea-change that’s been afoot this week, underpinned by a combo of a more confident euro outlook coupled with a -0.75% deposit rate in Switzerland. Elsewhere, EUR-USD has been playing a narrow range in the upper 1.16s, roughly a big figure below the 30-month high that was seen yesterday at 1.1776. USDJPY settled back near 111.00, a level that has seemingly been exerting gravitation pull over the last week or so, with attempted rebounds failing to sustain during the week. The six-week low seen on Monday at 1110.62 remains in the frame. A tumble in equity markets, with Asian bourses and U.S. equity index futures down today, provided the yen some support. A flood of data out of Japan were mostly encouraging, though CPI remained low, with the BoJ-monitored core figure coming in at just 0.4% y/y, unchanged from May and meeting the median forecast.

U.S. reports: revealed upside surprises for the durable goods and advance indicators reports for trade and inventories that boosted Q2 GDP estimates to 3.0% from 2.6%, though another lofty initial claims reading suggests that auto retooling is unlikely to boost this year’s July data. For durables, we saw a 6.5% June orders pop thanks to a 19.0% Boeing-led transportation orders surge, though we saw a 0.2% ex-transportation rise that tracked estimates. The report was robust thanks to strong equipment data. For the advance indicators, we saw an export-led $1.0 bln upside June trade surprise and big 0.6% June gains for both wholesale and retail inventories. Initial claims rose 10k to 244k in the fourth week of July, leaving what is now a 242k July average, following similar prior averages of 243k in June, 241k in May, and 243k in April. The July nonfarm payroll forecast remains at approximately 190k.

Main Macro Events Today

U.S. GDP & ECI – The first release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal a 2.6% headline for the quarter following a 1.4% pace in Q1. Consumption looks poised for stronger growth during the quarter and expected a 1.2%, up from 2.4% in Q1. Q2 employment cost data expected at 0.6% headline that follows a 0.8% clip in Q1. This would have the y/y pace of growth at 2.3%, down from 2.4% in Q1. Wages and salaries as well as benefit costs are both expected to expand at a 0.5% clip for the quarter from 0.8% and 0.7% respectively in Q1.

Prel. German Inflation – Eurozone inflation remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability and July preliminary HICP readings from Germany, France and Spain are likely to indicate that this won’t change soon. We see headline readings unchanged from June at 1.5% y/y in Germany, 0.8% y/y in France and 1.6% y/y in Spain, which would point to a steady Eurozone reading (due next week) of 1.3% in July.

Canada GDP – GDP is expected to improve 0.2% m/m in May after the 0.2% improvement in April. An 1.1% rise in May retail sales volumes followed a 1.1% rise in manufacturing volumes. There was a 0.8% gain in wholesale shipment volumes during May. But housing starts tumbled to 195.0k in May from 214.8k in April, suggestive of a negative contribution from construction. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is negative. Energy export values fell 9.0% m/m in May after growing 3.9% m/m in in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Re: Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:34 am
by HFblogNews
Date : 31st July 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st July 2017.


Image

FX News Today

A lot has been digested in recent weeks, including monetary policy decisions, a plethora of earnings reports, data, and supply, with geopolitics thrown in for good measure. Stocks have generally focused on the positives of continued central bank largess, generally bullish earnings news, and signs of improved economic activity, and they’ve left core indexes at or near record highs. There were no surprises from the recent FOMC and ECB policy decisions. Rates were left unchanged with QE kept intact, for now. Of the three central bank meetings this week, with the BoE, RBA, and RBI, steady to easier policy is expected. That should continue to underpin bonds and stocks near term.

United States: This will be another busy week in the U.S. as August begins. Earnings will remain a factor ahead after strength the Blue Chips boosted the Dow to yet another record peak, though surprising weakness in tech shares and disappointing reports from FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) shares rattled the NASDAQ. For the month-to-date, however, core Wall Street indexes are between 2% and 3.8% higher. As for data, another employment report is at hand and it will be closely monitored since it will help determine the start time for quantitative tightening, QT. Strong numbers will increase the risk that QT is announced at the next FOMC meeting on September 20, 21. July nonfarm payrolls (Friday) are expected to show a 182k following the better than expected 222k June gain, with the unemployment rate dipping again to 4.3% from 4.4%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% (median 0.3%) versus the prior 0.2%. The workweek is expected to dip back to 34.4 (median 34.5) from 34.5. The as-expected acceleration in Q2 GDP to a 2.6% growth clip supports forecasts of decent job gains. Earnings will be a focus as the inflation aspect is important for the Fed view. Other major reports this week include the July manufacturing ISM (Tuesday), estimated dipping to 55.5 (median 56.4) after jumping a surprising 2.9 points to 57.8 in June, which was the highest since the August 2014. The nonmanufacturing ISM (Thursday) is also expected to slide to 56.8 in July after rising 0.5 points to 57.4 last month. June personal income and consumption (Tuesday) will help fine tune the GDP outlook. We’re forecasting a 0.4% income gain (median 0.4%), with spending up 0.1% (median 0.1%). July vehicle sales will provide more clues on spending. Domestic car sales (Tuesday) are seen at a 4.5 mln pace (median 4.5 mln), with trucks at 8.5 mln (median 8.6 mln).

Canada: releases are due this week with the July employment and June trade numbers reported (Friday). We expect employment to rise 25.0k in July after the 45.3k gain in June. The unemployment rate is projected at 6.5% in July, matching June. A widening in the trade deficit to -C$1.3 bln in June from -C$1.1 bln in May is projected. A 0.5% m/m gain in exports is seen following the 1.3% rise in May, as the tumble in crude oil prices weighs on the value of Canada’s total exports. The IPPI (Monday) is projected to fall 0.6 m/m in July after the 0.2% decline in May, as weaker energy and commodity prices and a sharp firming in the value of the loonie relative to the greenback drive the index lower. The Markit manufacturing PMI for July is due Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI for July (Friday) is expected to improve to 63.0 from 61.6 in June.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases are likely to confirm the picture of robust growth, but still low inflation. Data have confirmed that the Eurozone recovery remained relatively robust in the second quarter and we expect official Q2 Eurozone GDP numbers (Tuesday) to show a quarterly growth rate of 0.6% q/q (median 0.6%), unchanged from Q1. Though these are backward looking numbers, the upcoming round of July confidence indicators (to be completed with the final PMI readings) suggest that momentum remained strong at the start of Q3. We expect the final manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) to be confirmed at the preliminary 56.8 (median 56.8) and the services reading (Thursday) at 55.4, leaving both sectors firmly in expansion mode. Confidence data aside, German manufacturing orders growth (Friday) has remained robust and we are looking for another solid June number, even if the quarterly rate is likely to have fallen back to 0.3% m/m (median 0.5%) from 1.0% m/m in May. Against that background, we expect the German seasonally adjusted jobless total (Tuesday) for July to have dropped a further -2K (median -6K), which would leave the sa jobless number unchanged at a very low 5.7%. The overall Eurozone unemployment rate for June meanwhile (Monday) is seen falling to 9.2% (median 9.2%) from 9.3% in May.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets this week (announcing Thursday), and the central bank will also release its quarterly Inflation Report with revised growth and inflation projections. Three of the then eight members voted for a 25bp hike in the repo rate at the last meeting in June (there are normally nine members, but one position was then temporarily vacant), and we expect a 6-3 vote spilt this time around in favor to leave interest rates unchanged (the same as the median expectation). With June CPI having undershot expectations, at 2.6% y/y after 2.9% y/y in May, and with concerns about the health of the key consumer sector, more dovish arguments will likely continue to prevail. There is risk of a downward nudge in growth forecasts in the Inflation Report, too, while inflation projections are likely to remain near unchanged. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the Markit PMI surveys for July. The manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is expected to hold at a near steady 54.4 reading after 54.3 in June. The construction PMI (Wednesday) is seen at 54.3 after 548 in the prior month, and the services PMI is anticipated to lift fractionally to a 53.6 reading after 53.4 in June. In-line data would affirm that activity in all three sectors covered by the surveys is continuing to expand, albeit at a relatively less robust pace relative to the last year or two.

China: July CFLP manufacturing PMI (Monday) is expected to slip to 51.5 from 51.7, while the Caixin/Markit series (Tuesday) is forecast at 50.2 from 50.4. The July services PMI (Thursday) is estimated rising to 51.8 from 51.6. The markets remain optimistic on China’s growth outlook.

Japan: Industrial production report (Monday), which we expect will come in at a 5.0% y/y pace, slowing from the 6.5% in May. June housing starts (Monday) are penciled in at -0.3% y/y, unchanged from May. June construction orders are also due Monday. July manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) should improve to 52.5 from 52.4. July auto sales are also on tap Tuesday. July consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 43.2 from 43.3 in June. July services PMI is due Thursday.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is center stage (Tuesday). We expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting. The RBA also releases the Statement on Monetary Policy (Friday). Economic data is relatively abundant this week. Building approvals (Wednesday) are seen rising 3.0% in June after the 5.6% drop in May. The trade surplus (Thursday) is seen narrowing to A$2.0 bln in June from the A$2.5 bln surplus in May. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to edge 0.1% higher in June after the 0.6% m/m rise in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.