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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee
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Re: Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:43 pm
by Ekaterina Fechina
Issue №70 from 16/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD continued to rally adding 11 points to trade at 1.5489 before settling at 1.5425 on Friday. Wednesday’s UK unemployment figures helped send the cable higher against the other most actively traded global currencies. The pound had been rising during early trading this week following the publication of the latest UK inflation data which revealed that, for only the second time since the 1960s, domestic prices had dropped during the twelve months to September. It is expected that there will be some slowdown in overall GDP growth in the third quarter, reflecting more uncertain global conditions, but the health of the jobs market will continue to underpin the domestic economic recovery. A summer burst of job creation in the UK economy has pushed the employment rate to a record high and brought down the jobless rate to its lowest level in seven years. There were 31.12 million people in work, an increase of 140,000, in three months to August, the Office for National Statistics reported. That took the employment rate to 73.6 per cent, the highest since comparable records began in 1971. At the same time, the number of unemployed dropped by 79,000 and the jobless rate fell to 5.4 per cent, hitting its lowest since May 2008. Next week, Britain publishes Public Sector Net Borrowing figures and Retail sales data.

GBP/USD (D1; October 16, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
The cable experienced minor volatility on Thursday, ultimately suffering a slight decline on mixed US economic data. Nevertheless, the Sterling remains at a three-week high, but the situation might change today. The resistance is located around 1.5485, lowering the pound's chances of edging higher. The support area just above 1.54 is also unlikely to give in, suggesting that the GBP/USD is to remain within the borders of current consolidation. Furthermore, technical indicators shifted from bullish to mixed both in the daily and the weekly timeframes.


EUR/USD ticked up 35 points to trade at 1.1439, subsequently coming back to trade at its current 1.1364 level as the greenback recovered a bit and traders prepared for the upcoming ECB meeting. The single currency tumbled against its major counterparts, retreating from a seven-week high versus the dollar, after European Central Bank policy maker Ewald Nowotny said the institution is “clearly missing” its inflation targets and suggested “additional” steps may be necessary to achieve growth. Today’s CPI report confirmed consumer prices in the euro zone fell last month for the first time since March. European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said both headline and core inflation in the euro area are “clearly” undershooting the institution’s goal, signaling that more stimulus may be needed. The main fault for this is the dramatic fall in the price of oil and raw materials. The single currency has been appreciating in recent weeks over concerns about the first US interest rate rise in nine years. Next week, euro zone publishes its current account figures, the interest rate decision and PMI numbers.

EUR/USD (D1; October 16, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
Yesterday’s break of 1.1459 resistance suggested that rise from 1.1086 is resuming while at the same time the rebound from 1.0461 is still not finished. Intraday expectations are on the upside for 1.1513 resistance and possibly above. At this point, strong resistance can still be found at 1.3993. On the downside, minor support is located below 1.1343. In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern with fall from 1.3993 as the final decline.


USD/CAD dipped 28 points as the US dollar recovered a bit yesterday while the rise in gold was offset by the declines in oil. The CAD is trading at 1.2894. The strong dollar weighed on manufacturing and tourism spending in the US while the economy continued its “modest expansion” in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said in a report on Wednesday. Eleven of the central bank’s 12 districts reported growth, according to the Beige Book survey of economic conditions from mid-August through early October. One district hit hard by the fall in oil prices, the Kansas City region, reported a slight dip in economic activity. However, consumer spending, driver of two thirds of the US output, grew moderately, led by sharper gains in auto sales. Nonfinancial services activity mostly strengthened and the housing market, which has been a bright spot in the economy, improved. Overall, the report was upbeat about the economy. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2865, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2825. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2985, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3064. Moving ahead, investors will look forward to Canada’s Core Retail Sales and Core CPI data scheduled for next week?

USD/CAD (D1; October 16, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the day on Thursday, but fell significantly after that. With that in mind, the market looks as if it is going to reach towards the 1.27 handle. That is the bottom of the support region that extends from there all the way to the 1.30 level. If the pair can break down below the 1.27 handle, the market should continue to go much lower. On the other hand, if there is some type of supportive candle, that could be an excellent buying opportunity as the market has been so oversold recently.


NZD/USD fell 22 points to 0.6805 as traders worry about growth rates in Asia and the problems brewing in the Chinese economy. The currency has enjoyed its recent rise, supported by renewed weakness in the US dollar as prospects of a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve start to look more postponed. Analysts said the currency was reflecting better news on the domestic environment - notably a big bounce in dairy prices - and easing concerns about China's economic growth prospects. Inside N.Z., whole milk powder prices have rallied by 89.5 per cent since hitting a low of US$1490 a tonne in August. In New Zealand today, the focus was on third-quarter inflation data, which was also higher than expected. The consumers price index slowed to 0.3 percent from a 0.4 percent pace in the second quarter, while a decline to 0.2% was anticipated. Next week, New Zealand is publishing its employment data.

NZD/USD (D1; October 16, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD pair initially went up during the course of the day on Thursday, but ran into a bit of trouble at the 0.69 level. Eventually, the pair ended up forming a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star of course is a negative sign, but NZD had broken above a significant amount of resistance at the 0.6750 level, and as a result a pullback from here should attract quite a bit of support, as the area had been so resistive. With this, the market is looking at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.

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Re: Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

PostPosted: Sat Oct 24, 2015 1:27 pm
by Ekaterina Fechina
Issue №71 from 23/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD rose 44 points to 1.5460 after retail sales beat forecasts of analysts. UK retail sales grew for the 29th month in September. Sales in the month grew 6.5% from the same month of 2014, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated. The British data also showed decrease in the Public Sector Net Borrowing from the previous reading of 10.79B to its current 8.64B versus expectations of 9.40B. Next week, UK publishes its GDP figures and mortgage approvals data.

GBP/USD (D1; October 23, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
GBP/USD recovery from 1.5106 might extend higher but outlook is unchanged. It is believed that risk stays on the downside with 1.5658 seen as a strong resistance. This means that fall from 1.5929 is likely to resume later. However, break of 1.5658 resistance will invalidate this view and target 1.5929 resistance instead. In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.7190 should have completed at 1.4565. Momentum of the rebound from 1.4565 was relatively weak and the structure is somewhat corrective. Hence, price action from 1.4565 needs to be treated as developing into a consolidation/correction pattern only. Fall from 1.7190 is viewed as resuming the longer term down trend from 2.1161 and would target 1.3503 and below later.


EUR/USD declined 25 points as traders expected Mr. Draghi to deliver a speech on QE program on Thursdayand went further down extending losses by 2.0% during the conference. The euro is currently trading at 1.1138. The single currencyfell lower on Thursday after European Central Bank policy discussion when President Mario Draghireiterated QE program expansion possibility. The euro zone current account figures were out in red colour this week at 17.7B versus 20.1B expected while the interest rate was left at its previous level of 0.05%. The manufacturing PMI and Markit Composite PMI were reported to be higher than expected. Next week, data is expected from euro zone including M3 Money Supply, Consumer Inflation Expectation, CPI and Unemployment Rate.

EUR/USD (D1; October 23, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD pair approached 1.1100 by the end of the US session, and consolidated near the mentioned low, with no signs of changing bias any time soon. Nevertheless, the pair has reached a major long term support area, and given that the pair lost over 200 pips pretty much straight, it may attempt an upward corrective movement before resuming its decline. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators have lost their bearish strength, but hold in extreme oversold levels. The next strong support comes at 1.1080, a long term ascendant trend line coming from 1.0591, April monthly low, which if broken, should lead to a test of the 1.1000 critical figure in the near term.


USD/CAD dipped 16 points after the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday and lackluster comments from the Bank Governor. The pair is holding at 1.3083. The drop in oil and gold prices on Wednesday seriously affected the commodity currency. The Canadian dollar fell the most in three months after the nation’s central bank left interest rates unchanged while cutting its economic growth forecasts, saying the fallout from lower prices for crude oil, one of Canada’s largest exports, will be felt for longer than projected. The BoC cut its 2016 growth forecast to 2 percent, from 2.3 percent, saying capital spending by oil and gas firms will probably fall 20 percent next year as prices remain weak. Canadian Core retail sales were flat after 0.1% growth in the previous month, while retail sales were higher than expected at 0.5% beating expectations of 0.1%. Next week, Canada is expected to publish its IPPI and RMPI figures as well as GDP numbers.

USD/CAD (D1; October 23, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
The loonie broke down against the US dollar by 1.1% after the Bank of Canada revised their GDP forecasts for 2016 & 2017 lower. Larger focus remains on the breakdown of a 4-month rising channel with a 60 pip decline. The pair is coming into key resistance that could set up the answer as to whether a decline is likely to continue or a test of September highs is possible in the near future. Because price broke below 1.2950, the confidence of the longer-term uptrend is quickly waning. Today, we’ll have the last major news event out of Canada in the CPI report.


NZD/USD soared 53 points to 0.6818 recovering from excessive losses over the past few days. The kiwi took advantage of the drop in the US dollar and a better mood for Asian traders. The kiwi fell to 0.6731 on Wednesday but recovered from the overreaction Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar had declined as commodity-linked currencies fell out of favor on concerns about global growth after oil prices dropped. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, advanced as investors favoured less risky assets following a drop in oil prices after US crude inventories increased by the most in six months.

NZD/USD (D1; October 23, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
NZD is attempting to launch a recovery after finding support near the 0.67 against its US counterpart. A daily close above 0.6789on Thursday opened the door for a challenge of the 0.6854 level. Alternatively, a reversal below the October 21 low at 0.6698 would clear the way for a test of the 0.6613-44 area. Current positioning does not offer an attractive trading opportunity.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Re: Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2015 12:09 pm
by Ekaterina Fechina
Issue №72 from 30/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

USD/JPY dipped 22 points as traders slowly react to the Bank of Japan decision. Japan's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food prices, edged down 0.1 percent in September while household incomes and spending also fell, the government said Friday. Getting consumers and businesses to spend more, a key aim of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies, has so far proven difficult. Slow progress toward a 2 percent inflation goal has raised expectations that the central bank might announce an expansion of its already lavish monetary easing at a policy meeting but the bank held the policy steady. Next week’s data consists of Manufacturing PMI, House hold Confidence and Japanese Leading Index.

USD/JPY (D1; October 30, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day on Wednesday but found enough support near the 120 handle the turn things back around and form a relatively bullish looking candle. With this, we believe the market will reach towards the 121.50 level, and with the Bank of Japan releasing its Monetary Policy Statement later tonight, it’s likely that the Japanese will try to bring down the value of their own currency so therefore we are leaning towards the upside anyway. On a break above the 121.50 level, this market should then reach towards the 125 handle given enough time.


EUR/USD plunged sharply lower last week, finishing at 1.1012 after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered the decisive speech that crashed the Euro with his comments about extending and expanding QE while surprising investors with talk of a rate cut. This week, traders paid attention to the German Ifo Business Climate report on October 26. The Federal Open Market Committee left policy unchanged in this week’s meeting. Traders focused on the statement and received some hints on the possible green light for the rates in December. The unemployment rate in euro zone was lower than expected at 10.8% versus 11% expected, but CPI numbers were more of a disappointment. Next week, investors are viewing the PPI numbers together with Services PMI and Retail sales data.

EUR/USD (D1; October 30, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD bounced at the open on Thursday, as there was the uptrend line from the longer-term ascending triangle as support, and it looks like the growth is likely to continue further. Moreover, the expectations of a rate hike are back so market will be more volatile in the forthcoming weeks. It is expected that 1.11 level will hold as strong resistance while 1.08 is seen a current support level.


AUD/USD gained 35 points against a stronger US dollar after the release of some positive data. The Aussie is trading at 0.7109 but remains near the bottom of its trading range. In economic news, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that consumer prices in Australia were up 1.5 percent on year in the third quarter of 2015. That missed forecasts for 1.7 percent, and was unchanged from the previous three months. The producer’s price index another way to value inflation climbed to 1.7% for Q3. In the currency market, the Australian dollar fell below the $0.72 mark amid struggling commodity prices. Next week, Australia will publish its economic data including AIG Manufacturing Index, Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance. On the US side, the market will be focusing on Non-Farm Payrolls report.

AUD/USD (D1; October 30, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
After posting its lowest low since October 6 at 0.7067 on Thursday, the AUD/USD is showing signs of turning the corner to the upside based on Friday’s early trade. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been to the downside since October 12. The main range is 0.6936 to 0.7381. 0.7157 has been the primary downside target since this currency pair began selling off.


NZD/USD added 48 points to trade at 0.6742 after the release of building consents which dipped lower than expected while ANZ business confidence was out much better than expected. Traders immediately switched to kiwi ahead of the Reserve Bank meeting. The New Zealand dollar is heading into the end of the week largely unchanged against the greenback after the Federal Reserve's move to keep open a potential rate hike was offset by improving economic data and a local central bank happy to delay an interest rate cut. Next week, the N.Z. data consists of GlobalDairyTrade Price Index, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

NZD/USD (D1; October 30, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD initially tried to rally during the course of the session on Thursday, but saw significant degree of resistance at the 0.6750 level, an area that is vital when it comes to the future of this pair. The fact that the pair is trying to rally to that area and then pulled back to form a shooting star like candle tells us that the sellers will more than likely continue to pressure this market.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Re: Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee

PostPosted: Sun Nov 08, 2015 8:26 am
by Ekaterina Fechina
Issue №73 from 06/11/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD slid down 6 points after the Bank of England meeting and decision to hold rates and policy. The hawkish attitude from the members should be supporting the pound but it is difficult to make headway against the strong US dollar after Janet Yellen more or less assured markets that a rate increase would happen in December. The pound is trading at 1.5381. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney published the central bank’s latest forecasts for the British economy and the outlook for interest rates at its quarterly inflation report. Next week, Britain is publishing its BRC Retail Sales Monitor, Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment rate.

GBP/USD (D1; November 6, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
GBP/USD pair fell significantly during the course of the session on Thursday as the Bank of England developed a somewhat dovish tone. With this, there was an immediate fall to the 1.52 level, which of course is massively supportive. Because of this, the market is waiting to see whether or not cable can break down below the supportive barrier that extends all the way down to the 1.5150 level before having a clear Sell sign. On the other hand, if the pair forms a supportive candle here, it can be considered as a buying sign as the significant bounce should send this market much higher.


EUR/USD is trading at the very bottom of its range after diverging comments from the ECB and the FOMC sent the dollar up and the euro down. ECB PresidentDraghireiterated the stimulus program widening in euro zone, while Janet Yellen testified yesterday to the US Congress indicating that the US economy was doing well and that the Fed would start raising interest rates in December. The euro is trading at 1.0863. Next week, the Euro Zone is publishing the Industrial Production figures, as well as GDP and Trade Balance data. On the US side, investors will be mainly looking at PPI and Retail Sales numbers.

EUR/USD (D1; November 6, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday, and the publication of Non-Farm Payrolls will clearly display the markets perception of this pair’s future direction. If the pair breaks and consolidates above Thursday highs at 1.0897, this will indicate a possibility of a rise in course of the following week. At this particular moment it is too risky to open any positions whatsoever, as the price might fluctuate chaotically.


AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7162. The Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens says if interest rates were to move shortly, Australians would see a cut rather than increase. Speaking at a conference in Melbourne, Mr Stevens also defended the RBA's decision not to compensate consumers for recent mortgage rate hikes, saying the economy doesn't need the boost and most households could absorb the changes. The global economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with some further softening in conditions in the Asian region, continuing US growth and a recovery in Europe. Key commodity prices are much lower than a year ago, in part reflecting increased supply, including from Australia. Next week, Australia is publishing economic data including Home Loans, NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change.

AUD/USD (D1; November 6, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
The Australian dollar went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday, as traders essentially were sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Nonfarm Payroll numbers to be announced. With this, there is quite a bit of support just below, but experts also recognize that there is a significant amount of resistance at the 0.72 level as well. Ultimately, this is a market that looks a bit too choppy at the moment, and because of this the price needs to move out of its current corridor before any mid-term decisions can be made.


NZD/USD is flat at 0.6594 after falling against the stronger US dollar. Inflation is low and should remain so, with the economy likely to have a degree of spare capacity for some time yet. Inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years, but a little lower than earlier expected. In such circumstances, monetary policy needs to be accommodative. Low interest rates are acting to support borrowing and spending. Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with growth in lending to investors in the housing market easing slightly while that for owner-occupiers appears to be picking up. US Non-Farm payrolls, which are closely watched by the Fed, are expected to show the world's biggest economy added 180,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate held at 5.1 percent. Next week, economic Data from New Zealand consists of Electronic Card Retail Sales, Business NZ PMI and RBNZ Offshore Holdings.

NZD/USD (D1; November 6, 2015)
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Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD pair tried to rally on Thursday, but turned back around to form a bit of a shooting star. That being the case, the market looks as if it is going to drop from here, perhaps reaching towards the psychologically significant 0.65 handle. Ultimately, there is no interest whatsoever in buying, because even if the Kiwi break above the top of the shooting star, there is more than enough noise near the 0.6750 level to keep this market down. Ultimately, the New Zealand dollar should lose value.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.