[phpBB Debug] PHP Notice: in file /inc_viewtopic.php on line 1494: Undefined variable: sMetaDescription
Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx
Page 7 of 7

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:03 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 19-09-2014
EUR USD
The EUR rose 0.63% against the USD and closed at 1.2918.

Yesterday, the ECB in its first of eight Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) to be carried out between 2014 and 2016, allocated €82.6 billion to 255 counterparties at a fixed interest rate of 0.15%, less than market consensus for an allotment of €150.0 billion.

In the US, number of initial jobless claims registered a drop to 280K in the week ended 13 September 2014, marking its lowest level since July, beating market expectations to drop to a level of 305K and compared to a revised reading of 316K in the prior week.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.287, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2823. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2948, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2979. Going forward, investors would look forward to the release of the CB Leading Indicator from the US.

GBP USD
the GBP rose 1.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6434, after the UK retail sales advanced 0.4%, on a monthly basis, in August, exceeding market expectations for a gain of 0.3%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6318, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6153. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6587, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6691. Going forward, the outcome of a highly awaited voting result on the Scottish independence would keep the investors on their toes.

USD JPY
The USD strengthened 0.15% against the JPY and closed at 108.74.

the BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that despite recent economic data revealing weak industrial production and exports in Japan, but he continues to remain upbeat on the recovery of nation’s exports, citing improvements in the world economy.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.06. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.6, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.03. Trading trends in the Yen today would be determined by Japan’s coincident and leading indices revealing the economic health of the nation, scheduled to release in a few hours.

USD CHF
the USD declined 0.90% against the CHF and closed at 0.9344. The Swiss Franc gained ground after the SNB kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0%, in line with market expectations in September. The central bank, further cautioned that Switzerland’s economic outlook has deteriorated considerably and trimmed its domestic growth forecast for 2014 to 1.5% from 2% and kept its inflation forecast steady at 0.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9275. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9457. Amid a lack of domestic economic data, investors would keenly await SNB’s Q3 Bulletin, due on Wednesday, to get more insights on the Swiss economy.

Daily Outlook 24-09-2014

PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:59 am
by CommexFX
EUR/USD
The EUR traded marginally lower against the USD and closed at 1.2847, after the manufacturing PMI in Germany, Euro-zone’s biggest economy dropped to 50.3 in September .
In the US, the manufacturing PMI remained steady at 57.9 in September, compared to market expectations of a rise to 58.0. Meanwhile, the housing price index rose 0.1%, on a monthly basis. Yesterday, the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in a conference, stated that he expects the first move of hiking the interest rates by the Fed would be employed at the end of the first quarter 2015.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2827, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2801. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2891, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2929.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.6391.
In economic news, the UK mortgage approvals registered an unexpected drop to a level of 41.6K in August, lower than market expectations of a rise to 42.9K and following a revised reading of 42.8K registered in the p The pair is expected to find support at 1.633, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6259. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6444, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6487. Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by economic news from other countries.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.06% against the JPY and closed at 108.83.
Early morning data indicated that, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in Japan unexpectedly eased to 51.7 in September, lower than market expectations of a rise to a level of 52.5 and down from 52.2 in August. The pair is expected to find support at 108.25, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.39.
USD/CHF
The USD traded flat against the CHF and closed at 0.9398.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9332. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9414, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9434. Going forward, investors keenly await the SNB’s Q3 bulletin to get more insights on the Swiss economy, scheduled in a few hours.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:07 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 25-09-2014
EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.55% against the USD and closed at 1.2776.
Yesterday, the Euro further lost ground after the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, in an interview, stated that the central bank would keep its monetary policy accommodative for a considerable period of time. In the US, the new home sales surged 18.0%, on a monthly basis, in August to 504,000 units, marking its biggest one-month gain since 1992 and the highest level of sales since May 2008, following a revised increase of 1.9% to 427,000 units registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, number of mortgage applications in the nation dropped 4.1% on a weekly basis in the week ended 19 September, following a rise of 7.9% recorded in the prior week.
The Chicago Fed President, Charles Evans, indicated that although there is improvement in the US jobs market but the country’s economy still needs help from the extended period of low interest rates. He, further, urged that the Fed should remain “exceptionally patient” before hiking its interest rates and should be more concerned towards boosting the jobs market.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2737, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2703. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2834, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2897.
GBP/USD
The GBP fell 0.37% against the USD and closed at 1.6331.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6286, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6251. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6385, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6449.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech, the first after Scottish referendum, scheduled later today.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.33% against the JPY and closed at 109.19.
Earlier today, data indicated that the Japanese corporate service price index rose 3.5%, on an annual basis, in August, lower than market expectations for a 3.7% gain and compared to a revised increase registered in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 108.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.87. Going forward, investors would await Japan’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in the early hours tomorrow.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.67% against the CHF and closed at 0.9461.
In economic news, Swiss UBS consumption indicator declined to 1.35 in August, compared to a revised reading of 1.67 reported in the past month.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9411, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9361. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9487, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9513.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:31 pm
by orni308
EURJPY fell down a bit but there is enough support for the pair at this level, and there are chance of it making an upper movement.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Thu Oct 23, 2014 7:03 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 23-10-2014
EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.52% against the USD and closed at 1.2646.
The greenback traded on a stronger footing after the US consumer prices advanced 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, beating market expectations. The MBA mortgage applications in the US rose 11.6% in the week ended October 17, after registering 5.6% gain in the previous week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.26, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2562. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2708, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2778.
Trading trends in the Euro today would be determined by the manufacturing and services PMI from the Euro-zone and Germany, its biggest economy, scheduled in a few hours from now. Meanwhile, investors would keenly look at the US initial jobless claims data, scheduled later today.
GBP/USD
The GBP fell 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.6046, after the minutes of the BoE’s latest policy meeting revealed that majority of the policymakers voted to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5994, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5942. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6115, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6184. Going forward, market participants look forward to the UK’s retail sales data as well the BoE’s MPC member Ben Broadbent’s speech, scheduled in a few hours.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.12% against the JPY and closed at 107.17. Early morning data indicated that, Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a level of 52.8 in October, up from previous month’s reading of 51.7. Separately, the IMF gave Japan the green signal to go ahead with a second sales tax hike next year in order to maintain credibility of the nation’s fiscal framework. The pair is expected to find support at 106.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.52, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.76.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.48% against the CHF and closed at 0.9538. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9496, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9444. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9575, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9602.

weekly outlook

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2014 7:16 am
by CommexFX
EUR USD
EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2485 last week and the breach of 1.2500 support indicates resumption of fall from 1.3993. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. On the upside, above 1.2613 will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2886 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.
GBP USD
GBP/USD’s recovery from 1.5876 should be completed at 1.6184 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.5876 first. Break will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. In any case, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.6226 resistance holds and downside breakout is expected. However, break of 1.6226 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6523 resistance instead.
In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are forming the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.
USD JPY
USD/JPY surged to as high as 112.47 last week and the strong break of 110.08 resistance confirmed up trend resumption. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 100% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 114.19. Break will target 161.8% projection at 119.75 next. On the downside, below 111.45 minor support will bring brief consolidations before staging another rise.
In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.
USD CHF
USD/CHF’s rebound suggests that pull back from 0.9688 has completed at 0.9359 already. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.9688 first. Break will extend that larger rise from 0.8698 towards 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 0.9543 minor support will probably extend the correction from 0.9688 with another fall. . But in that case, we’d continue to expect strong support inside 0.9300/9395 support zone to complete the correction and bring rebound.
In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2014 1:53 pm
by orni308
Dollar has traded pretty strongly last week, but the average labour data has made dollar loose its ground in the asian market.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:02 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 12-11-2014
EUR/USD
The EUR rose 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.2474. In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to a level of 96.10 in October, compared to a level of 95.30 registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, the nation’s Redbook index on a yearly basis recorded a rise of 3.80% in the week ended 07 November, following a rise of 3.90% recorded in the prior week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2407, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2348. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2513, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2560. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s industrial production data, set for release in a few hours.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.5920. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5848, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5786. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5960, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6010. Looking ahead, investors await the UK’s ILO unemployment rate, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, the BoE’s quarterly inflation report will attract considerable market attention, scheduled later today.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.91% against the JPY and closed at 115.89.The pair is expected to find support at 114.98, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 114.15. Earlier today, the BoJ Board Member Ryuzo Miyao stated that the central bank could start discussing about winding up its ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half of fiscal 2015, as the recent stimulus expansion decision had increased the probability of the BoJ meeting its 2% inflation target. Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s tertiary industry index rebounded 1.0% on a monthly basis in September, following a drop of 0.1% recorded in the previous month. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 116.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.94. Going forward, investors look forward to Japan’s annual machine orders data for further cues, scheduled overnight.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.36% against the CHF and closed at 0.9646. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9618, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9583. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9695, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9737.