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Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex • Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx
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Daily Outlook 15-08-2014

PostPosted: Fri Aug 15, 2014 6:52 am
by CommexFX
GBP/USD managed sharp misfortunes a day prior. In financial news, US Unemployment Claims moved to 311 thousand, above desires. There are no British discharges on Thursday. The UK will discharge Second Estimate GDP on Friday, a key pointer.

AUD/USD: Aussie Continues With Its Gain In The Asian Session , For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD reinforced 0.14% against the USD to close at 0.9318. LME Copper costs declined 0.6% or $39.0/MT to $6886.5/MT. Aluminum costs declined 1.0% or $21.0/MT to $2005.0/MT.

USD/JPY worldwide rating org, Fitch Ratings demonstrated that the Japanese economy is “weathering” the late deals duty climb, further alerted that the compensation development is an imperative component in the country, which has neglected to build convincingly.in the Asian session, at Gmt0300, the pair is exchanging at 102.5, with the USD exchanging tad higher from yesterday’s nearby.

USD/CHF The pair is required to discover help at 0.9039, and a fall through could take it to the following help level of 0.9011. The pair is relied upon to think that its first safety at 0.9091, and an ascent through could take it to the following safety level of 0.9115.

Daily Outlook 18-08-2014

PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 8:23 am
by CommexFX
EUR/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.3367, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3336. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.342, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3442.Going forward, trading trends in the Euro today would be governed by Euro-zone’s trade balance, scheduled in a few hours.

GBP/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.6694, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6658. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6768.Amid lack of economic releases from the UK today, trading trends in the Pound today would be governed by global news/events.

AUD/USD The pair is expected to find support at 0.9299, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.928. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9337, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9356.Amid lack of economic releases from Australia today, investors would keenly await tomorrow’s minutes of the latest RBA policy meeting.

USD/CHF The pair is expected to find support at 0.9009, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8990. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9059, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9090.

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Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Tue Aug 19, 2014 8:28 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 19-08-2014

The rally in stocks or selloff in bonds didn’t have any discernible effect in the Currencies. Nearly all of the majors except Sterling keep trading in ranges and a breakout is required to shake them out of this sleep.

EUR/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.3339, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3323. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3386, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3417.Amid a lack of major economic releases from the Euro-region, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by the inflation data from the US, scheduled later in the day.

GBP/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.6710, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6698. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6736, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6750.Going forward, investors today would look for the UK’s consumer prices data, scheduled in a few hours.

AUD/USD The pair is expected to find support at 0.9317, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9349, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9362.Going forward, investors would focus on the speech of RBA’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, scheduled to release in the mid-night.

USD/CHF The pair is expected to find support at 0.9039, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9007. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9088, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9105.

USD/CAD The pair is expected to find support at 1.0876, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0860. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0905, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0918.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Wed Aug 20, 2014 9:11 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 20-08-2014

EUR / USD
The EUR declined 0.30% against the USD and closed at 1.3321, after the Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed in June.
In the US, the consumer price index rose 2.0% in July, matching with market estimates. The housing market recovery is back on track, as the housing starts in the US climbed to 1.093 million units in July, marking its highest level since November 2013
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3274. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3344, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3378.
Traders would keenly await the release of the Fed’s minutes of its latest policy meeting, scheduled later in the day.

GBP/USD
The GBP fell .62% against the US Dollar and closed at 1.6620, after downbeat inflation data in the UK. On an annual basis, consumer price index in the UK dropped unexpectedly to 1.6% in July, dampening the prospects of a near term interest rate hike.
Meanwhile, gains in the USD were supported by a rise in the US consumer price index and better than expected readings on US building permits and housing starts, all for the month of July.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6574, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6690, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6766.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the Bank of england’s minutes of the latest policy meeting, scheduled to release in a few hours.

USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.28% against the JPY and closed at 102.92.
Earlier this morning, data from Japan indicated that adjusted merchandise trade deficit in the nation narrowed to ¥1,23.8 billion in July. Exports were up 3.9% (Y-o-Y) and the imports climbed 2.3% (Y-o-Y) in July.
The pair is expected to find support at 102.65, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 102.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 103.15, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 103.33.
Market participants would await manufacturing PMI data, scheduled for release tomorrow.

USD/CHF
the USD rose 0.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9093, following upbeat economic releases from the US.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9068, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9041. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.911, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9125.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Thu Aug 21, 2014 7:06 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 21-08-2014

EUR USD The EUR declined 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.3258. The US Dollar gained ground after the US Fed, in the minutes of its latest policy meeting, highlighted the improvements in the nation’s economy.

In Europe, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, urged the Euro-zone leaders to come forward and coordinate more closely to repair the “construction flaws” to overcome the debt crisis in the Euro-zone.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3222, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3196. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3295, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3342. Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by service and manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France as well as the Euro-zone. Investors would also keenly await the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium, which is slated to commence later in the day.

GBP / USD The GBP fell 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.6596. The greenback strengthened as the minutes of the latest Fed meeting was hawkish. However, the Pound gained earlier after the BoE minutes from its last policy meeting indicated that two policymakers from the rate-setting committee surprisingly voted in favour of a rate hike in August, marking the first split in more than three years.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6541, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6506. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6646, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6716.

Trading trends in the Pound today would be determined mainly by retail sales data from the UK.

USD / JPY The USD strengthened 0.78% against the JPY and closed at 103.72. Data released early this morning indicated that the manufacturing sector continued to expand in Japan, following a rise to 52.4 in August, markets were expecting it to climb to a level of 51.7.

The pair is expected to find support at 103.19, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 102.51. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.65.

USD/CHF The USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 0.9135. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9108, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9073.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9162, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9181. Going forward, market participants would focus on Swiss trade balance, scheduled in a few hours.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:28 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 25-08-2014

Euro (1.3202) has taken a big hit after the Jackson Hole meet as it trades around 1.32. With no sign of strength emergent, it definitely looks destined for our target of 1.31. Resistance at 1.3330-50 and support in 1.3250-25.

Dollar-Yen (104.18) is trading at a 7-month high but looks a bit overstretched now with a short term correction looking probable from 104.50-90. Interestingly,

Euro-Yen (137.55) has been rejected from the upper end of the 3-week range of 135.75-138. A successful break above 138 would signal a rally towards 139.00-25, even 140.

Pound (1.6559) has nearly reached our short term target of 1.6525-1.6470. But any attempt to bounce will face selling pressure from 1.6650-6700.

Aussie (0.9313) remains unchanged and keeps the range of 0.92-0.95 intact. Play the range as long as it remains unbroken with the median line at 0.9350-80.

Gold (1278.771) has bounced slightly from support near 1270 on the weekly and 3-day charts and while that holds we may see some more sessions on the positive side ranging in the 1270-1295 region. A break below 1270 if seen, could take it down to 1260-1250 in the longer term.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Tue Aug 26, 2014 7:34 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 26-08-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.3186.

Over the weekend at the Jackson Hole Summit, the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, revealed that the policymakers are willing to introduce additional stimulus, if there is further drop in inflation in the region.

In the US, the pace of growth in the services sector lost momentum as the services PMI fell for a second consecutive month in August to a level of 58.5, below the reading of 60.8 registered in July.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3184, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3165. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3217, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3231.

Going forward, the crucial durable goods orders and consumer confidence data from the US would be closely watched.

GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.6568.

in the Jackson Hole Summit, the BoE Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, stated that wage growth in Britain is not going to pick up anytime soon. He further mentioned that the bank would not hike its benchmark rates until there is a clear prospect of stronger wage growth in the nation.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6564, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6611, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6628.

Amid a light economic calendar from the UK today, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by news from various economies.

USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.16% against the JPY and closed at 104.05, following soft economic releases from the US.

theBoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that the Japanese economy would still need its ultra-easy stimulus measure for some more time in order to get rid of deflation.

The pair is expected to find support at 103.67, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.51. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.44.



USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.11% against the CHF and closed at 0.9161.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9133, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9121. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9165, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9185.

Amid lack of economic releases from Switzerland today, market sentiments would shift their focus to Wednesday’s Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2014 9:43 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 27-08-2014

EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.3168. The USD gained ground, following upbeat economic data from the US.

In the US, the orders for the durable goods climbed a record 22.6%. Additionally, the consumer confidence in the US rose to its highest level since October 2007 to a reading of 92.4 in August, beating market expectations.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.314, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3115. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3203, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3241.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by German consumer confidence data, scheduled in a few hours.

GBP / USD
The GBP fell 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6546.

In economic news, the mortgage approvals in the UK declined to two-month low in July, diminishing optimism over the health of the housing sector in the nation.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6527, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6502. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6587, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6622.

Amid lack of economic releases from the UK today, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by global events.

USD/JPY
The USD traded tad higher against the JPY and closed at 104.09.

In economic news, the Japanese small business confidence index fell to 47.7 in August, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 49.5.

The pair is expected to find support at 103.8, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.24, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.44.

USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.16% against the CHF and closed at 0.9176.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9146, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9195, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9215.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:05 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 28-08-2014

EUR USD
The EUR rose 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.3193, despite the German Gfk consumer confidence unexpectedly easing in September for the first time in more than one and a half years.

Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, in an interview, said that the comments made by the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, at the Jackson Hole, were “over-interpreted”, raising concerns that the central bank may not be as close to introducing additional stimulus measures as previously indicated.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3173, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3134. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3235, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3258.

Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by unemployment rate and inflation data from Germany. Additionally, investors would keep a close eye on GDP numbers from the US.

GBP USD
The GBP rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.6575.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.6554, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6516. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6618, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6644.

Going forward, investors would look at Britain’s Gfk consumer confidence, scheduled in the midnight.

USD JPY
The USD weakened 0.19% against the JPY and closed at 103.90.

Yesterday, Japan’s Vice Economy Minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, cautioned that the Japanese government needs to be more careful regarding its upcoming decision about raising the national sales tax.

The pair is expected to find support at 103.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.46. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.25.

Going forward, investors would focus on Japan’s crucial consumer prices and jobless rate data, scheduled to release in the midnight.

USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9149.

The Swiss UBS consumption indicator fell to 1.66 in July, compared to a reading of 2.07, registered in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9117, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9097. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.917, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9203.

Investors would await Q2 employment levels in Switzerland, slated to release ahead in the day.

Re: Daily Market Outlook by Commexfx

PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 7:39 am
by CommexFX
Daily Outlook 1-09-2014

Euro keeps taking hits from various fronts like US data to the speculation that the QE from the ECB may come this week. The divergence between the US & Eurozone economies is getting more and more clearly reflected in the respective currencies.

Euro (1.3123) crashed exactly from our resistance at 1.3220 to reach our medium term target of 1.31. Now it is very close to the long term support zone of 1.3050-3000 though no sign of strength is visible. Let’s see if any short covering emerges from these levels.

Dollar-Yen (104.17) is close to hit a new 7-month high above 104.26 but still needs a break above 104.50 to gather bullish momentum for reaching higher levels. The grinding price action without any kind of directional move in Euro-Yen (136.69) actually shows the relative uniformity between Euro & Yen as both weakened simultaneously. The pair remains weak below 138 and the range of 136-138 may sustain for a few sessions more.

Pound (1.6596) is stuck within a very narrow range of 1.6540-1.6620 and even a break above 1.66 could not boost the pair. The downtrend remains firm and any bounce may face selling pressure from 1.6700-50 levels.

Aussie (0.9338) is testing the August high at 0.9375 levels but the lack of momentum doesn’t promise much more immediate upside. A failure to break above 0.9375 may drag it down towards 0.9280-50 levels once again.

Gold (1286.75) is trading lower after a short upward correction from 1271. We may see a rise towards 1300 before falling back to 1280 in the near term while the longer term remains bearish. Gold-WTI ratio (13.42) has fallen from resistance at 14 but may bounce back from 13.3-13.4 levels to target 14.5-15 levels.