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WEEKLY AND DAILY ANALYSIS

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YEN: WAITING FOR BANK OF JAPAN

Postby mauriforex » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:34 pm

Good evening,

also this day shows us euphoria in european financial markets which are discounting the possible U.S. agreement between Republicans and Democrats. The euro continues its “flight” in the first part of the trading session (against the dollar has already reached the top level of May 2012) pushed up not only by a weak Usd, after Fed QE4, but also by the positive news of this morning about IFO data in Germany (better than expected).
In the Minute of this morning, the governor of the Bank of England, Mr.Miles, said that the decision (in December 5) against the adding of asset purchase has been voted by eight of the nine members of the Council and that the only vote against has been his one (moved by his conviction to create a greater incentive for production without generating a price increase).
Tomorrow let’s be careful, for those who have positions in yen, to the BoJ rate decision and the further indication about a possible new quantitative easing.

ANALYSIS

US Oil: the weakness of USD is strengthening WTI oil that comes close to the top of short/medium term laterality. In the resistance level $ 89.50 / $ 90 (if it won't be broken!) I'll try to look for a short setup of my trading system to enter into a possible bearish movement with a first target in area $ 85.
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Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
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NEW QE IN JAPAN

Postby mauriforex » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:02 pm

Good evening,

this morning the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, however, announcing an increase in the asset purchase of about 10 trillion yen and a revision of inflation target up to next january.
Officially ended in Greece Buyback operation with the repurchase by the government of the amount of its debt of 32 billion euro.
Better than expected the data of U.S. production (+3,1%) meanwhile politicians continue to work in order to reach to the important deal of these days!
The week will close tomorrow with the macro data on GDP in Britain and Canada.

ANALYSIS

Copper: last tuesday I sell this commodity according to a bearish daily set upet of my trading plan. Yesterday I moved my stop loss to a zero risk level (my entry level) and a few hours ago closed the position with a good profit (also considering the initial r/r relation!). This is price action daily with no indicators but only the price!
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Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS

Postby mauriforex » Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:37 am

Good morning,

we are at the end of another week, the last before Christmas, with the Fiscal Cliff problem still unsolved (although we have only a few days to go!). We have seen several up and down movements that a “normal” situation of the market, probably, wouldn’t have generated. Now we’ll have a few holidays with short trading time, closing sessions
and less liquidity in the market in the hope that the New Year could star with greater certainty especially from a technical point of view.
I prepared, as usual, my weekly analysis for a quick review of the situation.

ANALYSIS

Aud/Nzd: after the bullish rally we could see a technical pullback from the 1.2670 resistance area where I will try to look for short trading set up. Of course, in case of a continuation of the rise I will search for a pull back on that level to find an entry point for the bullish movement.
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Eur/Usd: the short-term movement is bullish, so we can search a long set up after the technical pullback in area 1,3120 / 1,3170.
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Nzd/Usd: the strong rise of last week has been canceled by the reduction of the current one. The short term trend is bearish, so we will look for a sell signal on the retracement in area 0,83 .
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Oil WTI: the resistance area at $90 seems to produce its effect and the price might be ready for a new fall that would target the area of 85.50. A possible, "last", level to resume the bearish movement might be a momentary retest of $89.30 area.
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I wish you a happy Holy Christmas and see you with my daily analysis next Wednesday 26 December.
Happy Christmas!
Maurizio
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Re: WEEKLY AND DAILY ANALYSIS

Postby mauriforex » Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:32 pm

Good evening,

Christmas time continues with the closure of the main European stock exchanges and the wait for the decision on Fiscal Cliff. In this regard, President Obama will return tonight from Hawaii to be ready for the last two available days in which, in my opinion, a temporary agreement will be found.
Today we also had the press conference of the new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who announced a bold monetary policy and a flexible fiscal policy.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Aud: another bullish day for Euro that approximates this cross to 1.28 area where we could see a correction of the entire bullish movement. If this happens, a short trading set up would have as a first target the 1.2580 price level. Otherwise a bullish break could produce a continuation of the rise to the new resistance area at 1.30
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Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
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Re: WEEKLY AND DAILY ANALYSIS

Postby mauriforex » Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:38 pm

Good evening,

we are in the last hours to solve the Fiscal Cliff problem with financial markets still on hold.
Today we had two important US macro datas: the jobless claim and the consumer confidence (lower than expected).
The Dollar Index has been stronger compared to yesterday; Gold and Silver are still uncertain even considering the positive session.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the most important currency pair shows another bullish session back to the 1.33 resistance area where it would be interesting to look for a bearish signal (always being careful to what happens in the U.S.)
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Greetings to everybody,
Maurizio
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS

Postby mauriforex » Sat Dec 29, 2012 8:36 am

Good morning,

we are in the last week of this 2012 which brought good job results and important macroeconomic news. We are very close to a solution (positive or negative) for Fiscal Cliff and this, as well as affecting the risk aversion, will certainly make it less difficult for us to analyze and trade.
I leave you with my usual weekly outlook and I wish all of you a wonderful beginning of the new year, full of peace and serenity for your families!

ANALYSIS

Aud/Usd: this currency pair is in a bearish short period trend. A correction in 1.04 area would be interesting to find a short set up with first target on 1.0280 level.
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Eur/Usd: the level 1.3120 could be, in case of downward correction, a good point where searching for a long signal with target on area 1.33.
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Nzd/Usd: very similar to the Aussie in his short short-term trend. A continuation of the pullback in the 0.8270 area would be a good opportunity to look for a bearish entry. The area 0,81 is still very important for a possible long set up in order to resume the bullish medium / long term trend.
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Oil: not very related to Usd in these days, it’s located in a bullish short period phase. A long set up of my trading plan in support area $ 90 might get me back into a buying position.
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See you Wednesday January 2, happy New Year!
Maurizio
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TIME OUT FOR FISCAL CLIFF

Postby mauriforex » Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:16 pm

Good evening,

the 2013 begins with the news of the final approval, by the U.S. Congress, of the Cliff deal. Just a few hours before the end of the year, it has been possible to limit the tax increase to those people with an income of more than 400-450 thousand Dollars annually. In the same deal it has been postponed the decision on spending cuts and confirmed that one about unemployment benefits.
The reaction of the stock market has been, as expected, strongly positive with many buy orders of stocks and euros (in the first part of the session) as well as a selloff of conservative currencies (with a strongest USD in the second part of the day).
Tomorrow we will have the Fed analysis with the usual Minute of FOMC meeting.

ANALYSIS

Gold: the strong initial dollar sell off has put wings to the metals which broke resistance levels. Gold rises above the important static and dynamic level of $1680 where I’ll look for a pullback in order to find a possible Long set up and return in the long-term uptrend.
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See you tomorrow,
Maurizio
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TOMORROW NFPR

Postby mauriforex » Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:11 pm

Good evening,

the "fiscal cliff" effect, which yesterday brought up the stock market, had a reduction in today's session not only for technical profit-takings but also in consequence of IMF spokesman statement according to which Us measures are not yet sufficient to ensure U.S.long term health. Thus Moody's also highlighted the risk of a down rating if there won’t be effective policies to contain the deficit and public debt.
In Europe, german unemployment remained stable at around 7% (with an increase of unemployed lower than expected).
We just had the FOMC meeting which showed a clear disagreement between the same members of the Fed, about a continuation of QE, generating strong dollar purchases that have driven down the euro-dollar and commodities.
Tomorrow, as first Friday of the month, we’ll take careful to volatility that will be generated with the No Farm Payrolls data.

ANALYSIS

Eur/Usd: the price broke down the 1.31 level and a confirmation of the weakness of the Euro could push this pair to the next support area of 1.30. In this case it would be good to find a short set up after a technical correction to the previous level.
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See you tomorrow!
Maurizio
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WEEKLY ANALYSIS

Postby mauriforex » Sat Jan 05, 2013 8:13 am

Good evening,

the No Farm Payrolls data have generated the usual volatility of the earlier days of each month; monday we should return to the "ordinary situation"!
As every weekend, I leave you with my usual weekly analysis to be prepared for the next opening of the market.

ANALYSIS

Aud/Nzd: the Oceania cross reacted strongly on the resistance level of 1.27 with a bearish daily candle. The breaking down of the level 1.2580 could bring this pair to 1.2480 area and then to 1.24 area.
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Eur/Usd: after the down break of the laterality of last week, this pair had two very bearish sessions going very close to the 1.30 support area and then reacting after NFPR. The goal is to return into the short term bearish movement (with the target on area 1.2850) after a possible pullback on the intermediate resistance 1.31.
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Oil: it tried a downward correction but the strength of buyers moved the price back to 93.30 resistance area. The break of this level could push the WTI to the next important level 94.60 and then, in the medium term, to the area ​​$ 99.
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Gold: the NFPR data pushed the price up to area $1650 after the re-tested on $1625. The short term trend is still bearish and only a confirmed break of the $1680 level could let us re-evaluate a purchase of the yellow metal.
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Have a good weekend and see you next monday.
Maurizio
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USD FOR SALE

Postby mauriforex » Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:03 pm

Goodnight
this week begins with few economic data, waiting for the interest rate decisions in Europe and the UK on Thursday.
Today was released the Producer Prices Index of November, in the euro zone, which was slightly decreased (but in line with expectations).
Equity markets were weak and substantially below the previous close with a bearish US dollar and a strong euro especially in the second part of the day.

ANALYSIS

Nzd/Usd: it broke the resistance level 0.8310 (top of the last Friday pin candle) and it's close to the new important area 0.8470 where (considering the weak dollar) it could arrive in 2-3 sessions. In that level I will look for a short term opportunity to sell the kiwi.
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See you tomorrow!
Maurizio
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