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Trading what you see

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Trading what you see

Postby Alan Rich Online » Mon Jan 07, 2013 12:33 pm

First lets say that almost everyone in the trading arena are nice people, but of course we have different views and that's what makes a market. At times I will be wrong and they will be right.

I don't want to be the same as the majority because it's the minority that are the true winners. So I'm always in debited to the guys that don't know they don't know and keep the crowd trading their old fashioned ways.

A year ago someone said "Get out of any long positions on the Dow as all the indications from his technical analysis led him to believe that an imminent collapse of the index was due!!" Of course it never happened just like the end of the world December 2012, it was a belief made from the news and curve fitted to technical analysis.

When you look back on it you smile but at the time I had serious traders who really believed it.

I respect the analysis, but I had a different view based on price action which I mentioned in the blog at the time.

Right now I respect that Yen is oversold and the RSI is overbought, but all that is old hat now days. You can see that when it dropped under the upside band after making a high above it we took off on another momentum move, shown by the black arrow. Anyone that went short because of the RSI got burnt to a cinder.

Price action and the ability to understand it is the key, an RSI on a standard setting will only react after price action confirms something. If we continue to go up then the RSI will stay above the upper band only when price action makes the reversal will the RSI react.

As traders we need to understand price action and the closest you get to it is intraday. We are the guys that know what's truly happening not the people who use old fashioned ideas and expect something to happen because of past belief.

The turn will come in the Yen and that will either be a pullback or sell off, but it's not there yet no matter what statistics people quote to us. We have to understand the signs when it does happen and when it does it will no doubt happen intraday out of the blue. Just like that US session drop in the EURJPY before Christmas. Trade what you see and not what other lesser people tell us we need to think.

Remember something big could happen to it at any time, but let it tell you when that is, don't make assumptions.

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Re: Trading what you see

Postby Shawnmichal » Wed Jan 16, 2013 10:30 am

I am agree with you Alan Rich that we should trade what we see. As it is based on our own analysis. Our analysis can better assist us to take final decision about open or close a trade. Others' analysis may be based on different factors and trading styles so sometimes it does not work for us.
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