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Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:53 pm

Hello!
There is analytics and trading recommendations from the company Tifia in this thread.
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S&P500: Trump reforms "stall" _27/03/2017

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:36 am

Current dynamics
The failure of the Trump administration with the draft of the new health law forced many investors to question its ability to fulfill Trump's promises during the campaign to support business in the United States. As you know, on Friday the Republicans withdrew from the vote in the US Congress the question of a new health bill, without enlisting the support of the majority of congressmen. Doubts about the success of the Trump administration began to appear at the beginning of last week. As a result, over the past week, the leading US stock indices recorded the largest drop in the last few months.
Reform of the health system was considered the first real test of the capabilities of the new administration. And now failure can cast doubt on the other legislative projects of Trump.
Doubts about Trump's ability to pursue a stimulating policy that would support the growth of stocks and the yield of government bonds caused a drop not only in the indices, but also in the dollar across the entire foreign exchange market.
The ICE dollar index fell on Friday to a minimum since mid-January 99,627 against 99,760 on Thursday. The S & P500 index fell 0.1% on Friday to 2,343.98 points, and by the end of the week, it fell 1.4%, which was its worst result since November. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3% to 20596. Its weekly decline reached 1.5% and was the highest since September. Prices for US Treasury bonds rose, and the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.396% from 2.418% on Thursday.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump tried to reassure investors, saying, "we will undertake a very large effort for a significant reduction in taxes and tax reform. This will be our next step. "
In general, the positive background for stock indices remains. Despite the rollback (in absolute terms), the indices increased significantly in annual terms. So, the S & P500 index, despite weekly losses, since the beginning of the year is gaining 3.8%, DJIA has grown since the beginning of the year by 3.3%.
Now investors will closely follow the next steps of the administration of the US president. The Fed has already made it clear that there will be only two rate hikes this year, i.e. one more, and not three, as planned earlier. The Fed's inclination to soft monetary policy, as well as Trump's statements that the country needs a cheaper dollar, are supporting the US stock market.

Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index fell sharply. The recall of the bill on health care from the Congress and its withdrawal from the vote collapsed the dollar and major US indices. The S & P500 index broke a short-term support level of 2348.0 and a support level of 2332.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The breakdown of the 2348.0, 2332.0 levels increased the risk of further decline in the index. The objectives of this decline are the levels of 2258.0 (December highs), 2265.0 (EMA144 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth of the index from the level of 1830.0 (low of 2016) to the level of 2400.0 (highs of 2017)).
Restoring of the index above the level of 2355.0 return the positive dynamics to index S&P500 and will point to the recent highs near the level of 2400.0.
The breakdown of support levels of 2228.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2181.0 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2%) will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Support levels: 2320.0, 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0
Resistance levels: 2332.0, 2348.0, 2355.0, 2400.0

Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 2318.0. Stop-Loss 2333.0. Objectives 2265.0, 2228.0, 2181.0
Buy Stop 2333.0. Stop-Loss 2318.0. Objectives 2348.0, 2355.0, 2370.0, 2385.0, 2400.0
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XAG/USD: The dollar is recovering after the fall

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:50 am

28/03/2017
Current dynamics


On Monday, the dollar fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. On Friday, Republicans withdrew their bill from Congress to abolish Obamacare, as it did not receive support among Congressmen. Among investors, fears have increased that the US president's administration will be able to implement the promised tax cuts and increase infrastructure costs.
The dollar index of the Wall Street Journal, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.6% to 89.65, the lowest level since November 11. Earlier, the dollar actively grew in the market in anticipation that the new administration of the US president will resort to fiscal stimulus measures of the economy, increasing budget expenditures, and creating prerequisites for a faster increase in interest rates.
The growth of uncertainty in the financial markets leads to the withdrawal of investor funds in safer assets, such as government bonds, yen, precious metals. So, on Monday April gold futures rose 0.6% to 1255.70 US dollars per ounce, having finished trading at the maximum level since February 27. However, the spot price for silver rose to $ 18.11 per troy ounce, the highest for the last 3 weeks.
The price of precious metals usually grows during periods of market or political uncertainty.
Moreover, the weakening of the dollar and the appreciation of precious metals is not hampered even by the decision of the Fed to raise the rate this month and verbal intervention by representatives of the Fed on the high probability of a multiple rate increase this year. Representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly signaled that the rate increase this year is likely to continue in connection with the strengthening of the economy and against expectations of an increase in inflation to the target of 2%, as well as an increase in US employment. Nevertheless, the prices for gold and silver are growing, and the dollar is getting cheaper.

Support and resistance levels

After a sharp decline since the beginning of the month, the pair XAG / USD was able to regain its upward momentum and is growing for the third consecutive week. The pair XAG/USD broke through the important resistance levels 17.37 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level 38.2% of correction to the pair growth from the end of December 2016 and the level 15.72), 17.53 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 17.77 (Fibonacci level 23,6%) and continues to grow to an important resistance level 18.40 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and the Fibonacci level 0%).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side.
Against the backdrop of a weak dollar, the upward trend in the pair XAG / USD persists. The nearest target is level 18.40.
The reverse scenario implies a breakdown of support levels of 17.70, 17.61, 17.53 and a decline to support level of 17.37. The break of 17.37 level raises the risk of further decline in the pair XAG / USD and its return to the downtrend with a long target of 15.72 (low of 2016).
Support levels: 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37
Resistance levels: 18.11, 18.40, 18.98

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.97. Stop-Loss 18.10. Take-Profit 17.92, 17.77, 17.61, 17.53, 17.37
Buy Stop 18.10. Stop-Loss 17.97. Take-Profit 18.20, 18.40, 18.98

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Brent: Trump stimulates oil production in the US_29/03/2017

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:57 am

Current dynamics

On Tuesday, Donald Trump signed a decree to repeal measures to protect the environment, which was introduced by Barack Obama. On the one hand, this shows the determination of Trump in pursuing his new economic policy and the desire to return the economy to traditional sources of energy, such as oil and coal. On the other hand, the decree is even more motivating for US oil and gas companies to increase oil production and accelerate the drilling of new wells. Last week, the number of active drilling oil rigs in the US increased by another 21 units to 625 units. The number of active drilling rigs in the US has been increasing since June for several months in a row, doubling after reaching a minimum in May last year.
The active growth in oil production, primarily in the US, negates OPEC's efforts to contain the fall in oil prices against the backdrop of an overabundance of oil supply in the world.
The active growth of oil prices, observed immediately after the signing of this agreement, stalled already at the beginning of this year. Since the beginning of March, there has been a sharp drop in oil prices. Moreover, the price decline occurs against the background of the weakening of the dollar. If the dollar begins to recover its positions in the foreign exchange market, then the fall in oil prices may accelerate.
Presented late last night, the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that oil reserves in the US for the past week increased by 1.9 million barrels. The official report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Energy Ministry will be published today at 14:30 (GMT). The stock is expected to grow by 1.183 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products over the past week. Reserves of oil in the US are growing, again reaching a record high over the past 80 years, above 533 million barrels. Oil production in the US has been growing for the fifth consecutive week (up to 9.13 million barrels per day). If the data from the US Energy Ministry, which will be presented today, will be confirmed, then oil prices may continue to fall. The US Energy Ministry expects further growth in oil production in the country. And this means that oil prices, if they do not continue to fall, will not grow actively.

Support and resistance levels

The price of Brent crude oil, having fallen from the maximum annual markings near the level of 57.30, stabilized near key support levels 51.50 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.30 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to decrease from 65.30 from June 2015 to absolute minimums 2016 Year near the 27.00 mark). To determine the further dynamics of the price, new drivers are needed. The active growth of oil production and the growth of stocks in the US, as well as the Fed's inclination to a slower but gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, put pressure on oil prices.
If OPEC does not extend the agreement on limiting oil production, which ends in June, the price of oil will begin to decline rapidly. Fundamental drivers for the growth of oil prices yet.
In the case of breakdown of the support level of 50.30, the decline in the price of Brent oil may accelerate.
Only when the price returns above the resistance levels of 53.00 (June and October highs), 53.25 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), you can again seriously consider long positions.
Support levels: 51.50, 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00
Resistance levels: 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30

Trading Scenarios


Sell Stop 51.40. Stop-Loss 51.95. Take-Profit 50.70, 50.30, 50.00, 49.00
Buy Stop 51.95. Stop-Loss 51.40. Take-Profit 52.29, 53.00, 53.25, 54.50, 55.30, 55.90, 57.30
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:17 am

GBP/USD: UK GDP in Q4_30 / 03/2017
Current dynamics

Nine months after the vote for secession from the EU, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed Wednesday a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations based on Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Now Great Britain will try to soften for itself the conditions of this process. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks; the most cautious forecast is until the end of the second quarter. The uncertainty of this process puts pressure on the pound.
On the other hand, Fed officials continue to signal that the US central bank is still prepared to continue raising rates this year. In their opinion, the Fed will raise the rate 2-3 times more this year.
Earlier in the week, the dollar appreciably weakened in the foreign exchange market after the Republicans withdrew from the Congress a bill on healthcare on Friday. This raised doubts about the Trump administration's ability to implement tax reforms and plans to stimulate the economy. However, published on Tuesday, data showed that consumer confidence in the US reached the highest level in 16 years. The dollar received support and was able to recover significantly in the foreign exchange market. Now, according to CME Group's data, the probability of a rate hike at the June Fed meeting is 53%.
It seems that market participants are not yet fully aware of the Fed's determination in this matter. As the June approach approaches, as the positive data from the United States come in, the dollar will gradually grow stronger in the foreign exchange market.
Tomorrow at 08:30 (GMT) will be published data on UK GDP for the 4th quarter. The country ranks first on the annual percentage growth of GDP among all the strongest economies of the world, and the share of the UK's GDP in the world GDP is about 4% (2nd place in Europe after Germany). GDP is considered an indicator of the overall state of the British economy. The growing trend of GDP is considered positive for GBP, and vice versa. An annual increase of 2.0% is expected. If GDP data turn out to be weak, this will directly affect the decision of the Bank of England to reduce the interest rate in the UK. And this will put downward pressure on the pound. The main factors that can force the Bank of England to lower the rate are a weak GDP growth, the labor market. However, the growing inflation in the country will have the opposite effect on the Bank of England in its decision to lower the interest rate. Positive macroeconomic reports of recent weeks suggest that the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum.
A strong GDP report will have the most positive impact on the pound's position and the British stock market.
Conversely, weak GDP will have a negative impact on the pound's quotes, including in the GBP / USD pair.
And today the attention of market participants will be focused on data on GDP and inflation indicators of the US for the 4th quarter. Strong GDP and inflation indexes can significantly reduce the doubts of market participants in the likelihood of a rate hike in the US already at the May or June meeting of the Fed.

Support and resistance levels
The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Since yesterday, the GBP / USD pair has formed a short-term range between the support level of 1.2392 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and resistance level 1.2447 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The pair GBP / USD growth in the period of 1-2 weeks is limited by resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
Negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD prevails. If the US GDP (published today) turns out to be strong, and the UK GDP (published tomorrow) will be weaker than the forecast (2.0%), then the GBP / USD pair will definitely break through the short-term support level 1.2392 and go towards the nearest support level 1.2150 (March lows) .
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily and 4-hour charts turned to the side of sellers.
The reverse scenario is related to breakdown of the short-term resistance level 1.2447 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the withdrawal from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.
In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2392, the pair GBP / USD decline will continue.
Support levels: 1.2392, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2447, 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.2380. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2380. Take-Profit 1.2470, 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:21 am

EUR/USD: the euro remains under pressure_31/03/2017
Current dynamics

During the day of active decline from the level of 1.0863, the pair EUR / USD lost about 1.8% (190 points). There is a small recovery in the opening of today's European session; however, the negative dynamics of the pair remains. This week, the most important macro data on the United States was published. The level of consumer confidence in the US in March reached a maximum in 16 years (125.6), surpassing the forecast of economists (114.0). Annual data on US GDP and price indices for the fourth quarter, published on Thursday, also proved very positive. GDP grew in the fourth quarter on updated data by 2.1%.
Today we are waiting for publication of important macroeconomic indicators for the USA, including inflation indices of personal consumption expenditure for February, from 15:30 to 17:00 (GMT + 3). However, gradually attention of investors is switching to the publication next Friday of data from the US labor market for March.
GDP growth, inflation dynamics and the labor market are key factors for the Fed in determining the need for and the rate of tightening (or easing) monetary policy in the US.
The US economy is recovering steadily after the crisis of 2007, and consumers are confident in the economic development of the country. Positive macro statistics coming from the US, as well as verbal intervention by the Fed representatives with regard to a further gradual increase in the interest rate in the US, contribute to the strengthening of the dollar.
On the part of the key representatives of the ECB, there are statements about the need to continue to maintain extra soft monetary policy in the Eurozone. The difference in monetary policy in the US and the Eurozone will continue to be the determining factor in the medium-term dynamics of the EUR / USD pair.

Support and resistance levels

The pair broke through the important support levels 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.0765 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA144 on the daily chart). At the beginning of today's European session, the pair EUR / USD is trying to stabilize at support level 1.0695 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Bonding above this level will mean the EUR / USD pair's return to the upward correction trend, which began in January.
A further decline will mean the end of the upward correction and the EUR / USD pair's return to the downtrend with the targets of 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485, and 1.0350. Long positions can be considered only when the pair returns above the level of 1.0765.
If the EUR / USD pair returns to the zone above the level of 1.0820, you can return to the purchases with medium-term objectives of 1.0950, 1.1000. For now, the negative background for the EUR / USD pair prevails.
Support levels: 1.0695, 1.0675, 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

Trading Scenarios
Sell Stop 1.0670. Stop-Loss 1.0720. Objectives 1.0615, 1.0530, 1.0485
Buy Stop. Stop-Loss 1.0670. Objectives 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0890, 1.0905, 1.0940
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USD/JPY: the beginning of the new fiscal year in Japan_03/04

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:13 am

Current dynamics
The new trade week that has begun is connected with important events in the world of international finance and the publication of important macroeconomic data. One of the focus of traders will be the publication on Wednesday (21:00 GMT + 3) of the protocol from the last March meeting of the FOMC, at which FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%.
Markets have already played this event; however, investors will be interested to see the text of the minutes of this meeting. As a rule, FOMC meetings discuss, among other things, a schedule for raising (or lowering) the basic interest rate. The Fed comments to the last rate increase in March indicated a two-time rate increase this year. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support. Therefore, the importance of publishing this protocol and its impact on the dollar quotes is difficult to overestimate.
At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the fact that in Japan, March 31 ended the fiscal year. Japanese taxpayers, including export companies, which completed the annual period of repatriation of capital to Japan, for the most part have already paid taxes. In this regard, the pressure on the yen, including the active purchases on the Japanese stock market, which occur, usually at the beginning of the new fiscal year in the first half of April, can dramatically increase. The Japanese stock index Nikkey225, which has a high correlation with the pair USD / JPY, may begin to grow actively until April 15.
In this regard, it is worth being prepared for the growth of the pair USD / JPY, especially if it is accompanied by the strengthening of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.
From the news for today, we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:00 (GMT) will be published index of gradual acceleration of inflation, as well as the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, for March. A number of representatives of the Federal Reserve gives a speech today (scheduled for today after 14:30 GMT). The US continues to receive positive macro statistics. Recently, representatives of the Fed sound hawkish notes regarding the plan for tightening monetary policy in the US. It is likely that today will not be an exception in the rhetoric of the representatives of the Fed. And if published earlier macro data on the US will again be positive, then the dollar will receive double support today.

Support and resistance levels
Earlier this week, the pair USD / JPY rebounded from the 110.10 support level (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and is trying to develop an upward trend, attempting to break through the short-term resistance level of 111.50 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
USD / JPY managed to gain a foothold above the important support level of 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The pair is growing in the rising short-term channel on the 1-hour chart and is currently near the lower border of this channel.
On the daily chart, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators shifted to the buyers’ side. In case of breakdown of the resistance level 111.50, the pair USD / JPY may continue to the resistance level 112.60 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper limit of the rising channel on the 1-hour chart). In case of consolidation of the pair USD / JPY above this level, the risks of further growth of the pair to the 115.00 level will increase.
The reverse scenario is related to the breakdown of the support level at 111.15 (EMA200 on the daily chart and the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the pair growth since August of last year and the level of 99.90) and the resumption of the decline. The nearest target is level 110.10.
We follow the dynamics of the index of the Japanese stock market Nikkey225. The growth of the index on the background of active purchases at the beginning of the new financial year will pull the yen's sales, including in the pair USD / JPY. Positive dynamics of the pair USD / JPY is maintained, while the pair is above the support level of 111.15.
Support levels: 111.15, 110.10, 109.00
Resistance levels: 111.50, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00

Trading Scenarios
Buy Stop 111.50. Stop Loss 111.10. Take-Profit 112.00, 112.60, 113.80, 115.00
Sell Stop 111.10. Stop Loss 111.50. Take-Profit 110.80, 110.10, 109.00, 108.25, 106.50
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AUD/USD: interest rate unchanged_04/04/2017

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:49 am

Current dynamics
As expected, today the RBA did not change the interest rate in Australia, leaving it at 1.5%. The RBA's accompanying statement noted that the labor market has lost momentum, and inflation may grow slower than expected. As the RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted, "some indicators of the labor market have recently weakened." Weakening consumer spending and lowering inflation, as well as the continuing sharp rise in house prices, amid weakening labor market indicators, are the main risk factors for the RBA and the Australian economy. In this regard, economists believe, the RBA will refrain from changing interest rates in the country for the time being.
At this decision of the RBA, the Australian dollar reacted sharply lower, including in the pair AUD / USD. At the beginning of today's European session, the decline in the AUD / USD pair continued.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and Australia will facilitate the flow of investment funds from the Australian dollar to the US dollar and further weakening of the AUD / USD.

Support and resistance levels
For the first two days of the new trading month, the AUD / USD pair has already lost 0.85%. If the decline continues at the same active pace, by the end of April, the AUD / USD pair will be seen near the 0.7300 mark. However, much in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair will also depend on the dynamics of the US dollar. Tomorrow (18:00 GMT) the protocol will be published from the last March FOMC meeting, at which the rate was raised by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the US dollar can receive significant support in the foreign exchange market.
The pair AUD / USD broke through important short-term support levels of 0.7632 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 0.7622 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continues to decline to support level 0.7540 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
In case of deeper decline and breakdown of the support level of 0.7513 (38.2% Fibonacci level), the risks of further reduction of the AUD / USD pair will increase with a long-term target near the support level of 0.7155 (May lows, December 2016).
An alternative scenario for growth will become relevant in case of consolidation of the AUD / USD pair above the resistance levels 0.7622, 0.7632.
Support levels: 0.7540, 0.7513, 0.7448
Resistance levels: 0.7622, 0.7632, 0.7680, 0.7740, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios
Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7585. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7515, 0.7460
Buy Stop 0.7585. Stop-Loss 0.7555. Take-Profit 0.7622, 0.7632, 0.7680, 0.7740
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:43 am

GBP/USD: PMI for the UK service sector_05/04/2017

Current dynamics
Published today at 11:30 (GMT + 3), the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK service sector for March came out at 55 (the forecast was 53.5). The publication of the index caused a sharp rise in the pound on the market. The pair GBP / USD jumped as the index was published to the level of 1.2489.
Last week, a revised report on UK GDP for the fourth quarter (+ 1.9% in annual terms against + 2.0% on updated data) was presented. As a result, the pound reacted to the publication of the report on GDP decline. The two previous sessions of the GBP / USD pair were actively declining. Today's publication of the index (PMI) for the services sector may have a short-term impact on the GBP / USD pair.
The pound is under pressure on the background of the beginning of negotiations on Brexit. Last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May signed a decree on the beginning of the British divorce proceedings with the European Union. The beginning of the two-year period of Brexit negotiations on the basis of Article 50 of the Lisbon Agreement is laid. Negotiations should begin within a few weeks. Nevertheless, positive macroeconomic reports from the last weeks coming from the UK indicate that the economy of the country did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit. However, the referendum hit hard on the pound's positions, which lost nearly 20% paired with the dollar to date. The pressure on the pound and the GBP / USD pair is maintained.
The focus of investors' attention on Wednesday will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the minutes from the March FOMC meeting, at which the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to a level of 1.0%. If the FOMC protocols contain signals for the possibility of three or four rate increases, the dollar can receive significant support.
Also worth paying attention to the publication at 13:45, 14:00 (GMT) of business activity indexes in the US services sector for March and ADP report on employment in the private sector of the US economy. Many market participants consider it a harbinger of the official report on the labor market, which is published this Friday. Therefore, the reaction to the publication of the ADP report is also expected to be high.

Key levels
The pound continues to remain under pressure, and the GBP / USD pair is in a long-term downtrend since July 2014. Despite the fact that positive short-term dynamics predominate, in the medium term, the pressure on the GBP / USD pair will continue as long as the pair is below resistance level 1.2600 (EMA144 on the daily chart).
The indicators OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart continue to remain on the side of sellers.
If the GBP / USD pair returns to the zone below the level of 1.2465 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), its decline may resume.
The reverse scenario is related with the growth above the level of 1.2465 and further growth to the level of 1.2600.
The different focus of monetary policies in the US and the UK, the exit from the EU are powerful fundamental factors that prevent the GBP / USD pair from recovering significantly. Negative fundamental background creates prerequisites for further decline in the pair GBP / USD, the negative dynamics of the pair GBP / USD is still predominant.
Support levels: 1.2465, 1.2412, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2150, 1.2000
Resistance levels: 1.2490, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

Trading tips
Sell Stop 1.2455. Stop-Loss 1.2495. Take-Profit 1.2412, 1.2390, 1.2340, 1.2150
Buy Stop 1.2495. Stop-Loss 1.2455. Take-Profit 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2700, 1.2800

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:11 am

EUR/USD: revision of the ECB policy is not required at this stage_06/04/2017

Current dynamics
ECB President Mario Draghi said today that "the recovery of the Eurozone economy has intensified, it has become more homogeneous", however, "it is too early to declare success". Draghi also added that "there are no reasons to refuse current benchmarks regarding interest rates", "the revision of the ECB policy at this stage is not required."
In response to a statement by Mario Draghi, the euro fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR / USD lost about 50 points in the moment, however, by the closing of the hour it was able to recover by half.
After yesterday's publication of the minutes from the last meeting of the FOMC, which caused a violent reaction in the foreign exchange market, today there is a mixed dynamics. However, the dollar remains the favorite. The Fed, as follows from the protocol, intends to reduce its balance, amounting to 4.5 trillion dollars. The portfolio of the Federal Reserve consists of treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Reducing the balance of the Fed means selling government bonds, which will increase their profitability. Even if the Fed does not increase the rate, the Fed's portfolio reduction will cause the dollar to strengthen as the yield of US government bonds rises.
Yesterday, a report from ADP was published that showed that the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 263,000 in March (the forecast was + 180,000 jobs). This suggests that the rate of hiring in the private sector in the US remained high in March, and the labor market in the US is in good shape.
The presented data are extremely important, since, in some way, they can signal that on Friday a strong official report from the US Department of Labor on the state of the labor market in the country will be presented. According to the forecast, an increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy (NFP) by 180,000 is expected (after an increase of 235,000 in February); unemployment should remain at 4.7%.
The monthly increase in new jobs by more than 150,000 points confirms a stable labor market in the US. The state of the labor market, the pace and level of inflation, GDP growth are the main factors for the Fed in determining the need for tightening monetary policy in the US. If the forecast for NFP (+180 000 new jobs) is justified, then expectations of an early increase in the interest rate in the US will increase. This is a positive factor for the dollar. Conversely, a weak report on the labor market will cause a sharp weakening of the dollar. Recently, the situation is that when the weak macro data comes out, the dollar reacts much more strongly than when positive data are released. It is possible that this will happen this time too.

Key levels
After a sharp weakening at the end of last month, the pair EUR / USD is holding in the range between levels 1.0690, 1.0630. In view of the importance of the events of the current week in determining the future dynamics of the dollar, investors occupied, in the main, a wait-and-see attitude.
The pair broke through the important levels of support 1.0765 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.0690 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the pair EUR / USD moves to the bottom line of the uplink, passing near the level of 1.0550 (November lows).
If the pair EUR / USD returns to the zone above the levels of 1.0690, 1.0700 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), then the scenario to decline to the level of 1.0550 will be canceled, and the pair may continue to rise to the levels of 1.0765 (EMA144), 1.0820 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily and weekly charts were deployed to short positions.
Meanwhile, the negative dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is prevailing.
Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485
Resistance levels: 1.0690, 1.0700, 1.0765, 1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0905

Trading tips
Sell Stop 1.0625. Stop-Loss 1.0685. Objectives 1.0600, 1.0550, 1.0500, 1.0485
Buy Stop 1.0685. Stop-Loss 1.0625. The objectives are 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0755, 1.0770, 1.0820, 1.0865, and 1.0905

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