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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:00 am

S&P500: in a busy trading day
06/07/2017

Overview and dynamics

After the unstable and insignificant growth last month, US stock indices seem to change their direction of movement and unfold "to the south."
Published yesterday, the minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Reserve confirmed the market expectations and intentions of the Fed on monetary policy in the US. The Fed, despite its weak inflation, plans to make another rate hike this year, as well as to start cutting its budget, which is estimated at about 4.5 trillion dollars by various estimates.
Today at 11:30 (GMT) the minutes of the June meeting of the European Central Bank are published, which may cause increased interest of investors in connection with the latest comments of ECB representatives. The focus of the markets today will be the question of the ECB's intentions regarding the beginning of the reduction of the incentive program in the coming months.
In recent days, investors have been focusing their attention on the comments of the leaders of the world's largest central banks. It seems that, amid the strengthening of the world economy, stimulating programs in countries with the largest economies may soon be curtailed. And this is a negative signal for world stock markets.
Today is a busy trading day. In addition to publishing information about the ECB monetary policy meeting, the US trade statistics published in the US trading session are statistics on private sector employment from ADP for June, the trade balance for May, the weekly report on primary applications for unemployment benefits and business activity indices for June . Weak indicators of macroeconomic indicators will cause a decline in the dollar and US stock indices.
Also at 14:00 (GMT), a member of the US Federal Open Market Committee, Jerome Powell, is expected to speak. It is likely that he will also support the Fed's actions towards a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the United States.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day and, especially, during the European trading session, the S&P500 index is actively declining. The price fell below the 2422.0 mark, corresponding to the closing price of the previous month. If the negative trend increases, then July will be the first month in which the S & P500 index will close in negative territory after an 8-month active growth.
The index has already broken through an important short-term support level of 2421.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and is aiming for the support level of 2413.0 (EMA50 and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart). If the negative trend is to increase, then the following goals of the S & P500 index decline will be support levels 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, between which the lower line of the uplink on the weekly chart passes, 2320.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2305.0 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to Growth since February 2016). The breakdown of support levels 2320.0, 2305.0 will cancel the bullish trend of the index.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts have already turned to short positions.
While the price is above the level of 2413.0, we can speak of a downward correction of the index. Its positive dynamics is higher than this level. In case of resumption of growth and after the breakdown of resistance level 2452.0 (June and year highs), the growth of the index will resume.
Support levels: 2413.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0
Resistance levels: 2438.0, 2453.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 2432.0. Objectives 2413.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0
Buy Stop 2432.0. Stop-Loss 2417.0. Objectives 2438.0, 2450.0, 2500.00
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Jul 07, 2017 11:27 am

GBP/USD: The dollar is growing before the publication of NFP
07/07/2017
Overview and dynamics

After the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain presented disappointing data on the foreign trade balance of Great Britain, and also on the level of industrial production for May, the pound declined in the foreign exchange market. Against the euro, the pound fell to the lowest level in nine days, and against the dollar - by 0.4% (by about 60 points), falling to the level of 1.2900. In view of the decline in manufacturing in the manufacturing industry, the decline in UK industrial production was 0.1% compared to the previous month (the forecast was + 0.3%). Published data indicate that in the second quarter of the country's economic growth remains weak. The deficit of foreign trade in Britain at the same time in May increased by almost a billion pounds to 11.9 billion pounds (from 10.6 billion pounds in April and against a forecast of 10.8 billion pounds). The sharp increase in inflation in the UK against the background of Brexit puts pressure on consumer spending, which over the past few years has been the engine of the UK economy's growth. Now, in order to level out the slowdown in the economy, it is necessary that production and trade grow at a faster rate. In fact, the reverse process occurs. In the 1st quarter of 2017, the UK economy grew 0.2% compared to the previous quarter against 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016, in the second quarter, the growth in the economy could slow even further and, according to some estimates, move to Negative territory.
During his speech at the forum of the European Central Bank in Portugal in late June, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said that "partial refusal of stimulus measures is likely to be necessary, since the Bank of England will no longer have to compromise, and the decision-making process will enter in the usual course".
Now, after the release of weak macro data on the hawk positions in the Bank of England suffered a tangible blow. Apparently, disappointing economic data can give the monetary authorities of the UK an opportunity to seriously not think about raising the interest rate, but to stimulate the economy. In any case, the Brexit process will have a negative impact on the economy of the country for a long time. And with any corrective growth in the British currency, there are many investors who will want to sell it, especially after the release of another negative portion of the British macro statistics. Today, investors' attention is focused on the G20 summit, which began in Hamburg, at a meeting of the Russian and US presidents, which is scheduled to begin at 17:00 local time, as well as publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market in the United States. Strong performance is expected. The growth of employment in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in June was, according to economists, 179,000 new jobs, which is 41,000 higher than the previous index, unemployment in June remained at the same level of 4.3%, and the average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% %.
If the forecast is confirmed, the dollar will grow in the foreign exchange market. In any case, when making trading decisions, it is necessary to take into account that when these indicators are published, a surge in volatility is expected in the trades throughout the financial market, including GBP / USD.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After the publication of macro data for the UK, the GBP / USD pair broke through the short-term support level of 1.2910 (EMA200 at 1-hour) and continues to decline to support level 1.2850 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts turned to short positions, signaling the continuation of the downward correction. The next important goal of the pair GBP / USD decline is the level of 1.2810 (EMA200 on the daily chart). In the case of the breakdown of the support level 1.2745 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD decline will accelerate to targets near the levels of 1.2590 (June lows), 1.2550 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110.
If the positive pound dynamics continues, then the GBP / USD pair will resume growth with the targets of 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3100, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 And the upper limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2810, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2880. Stop-Loss 1.2930. Take-Profit 1.2820, 1.2735, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485
Buy Stop 1.2930. Stop-Loss 1.2880. Take-Profit 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:02 am

Brent: pressure on oil prices persists
10/07/2017

Current dynamics

After some decline during the Asian session, the dollar today resumed its growth. Ambiguous data on the US labor market for June, published on Friday, caused a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market. And yet, despite the fact that unemployment rose in June from 4.3% to 4.4%, and the average hourly earnings in the US for June was 0.2% (the forecast was 0.3%), in general, the data On the labor market in the US can be called strong. The NFP indicator in June was 225,000 (against the forecast of 179,000). The dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and oil prices decline.
Additional pressure on oil prices had an increase in oil production in the US last week. According to the Energy Information Administration of the country, oil production in the US last week increased to 9.33 million barrels per day from 9.25 million barrels a day a week earlier. Oil production at the same time exceeded the level of the previous year by almost 11% and returned to its 10-month maximum.
Published on Friday, data from the oil service company Baker Hughes, also indicated an increase in drilling activity in the industry. So, the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased last week by seven units to 763 units, which is more than 2.1 times higher than a year ago. Against the backdrop of a sharp increase in oil production in the US, which alleviates OPEC's efforts to stabilize the balance in the oil market, OPEC is considering setting restrictions on oil production in Nigeria and Libya.
But, at the same time, Saudi Arabia plans to spend $ 300 billion on oil and gas projects in the next 10 years, the head of Aramco said today. Last week, by the way, Saudi Arabia reported that it reduces official oil prices for Asia.
Despite the agreements to limit oil production, the struggle for its share in the oil market does not stop. Especially, after the US begins to fill successfully the vacant niches in the oil market with a growing supply of US shale oil.
World oil production is still high, oil reserves remain at historical highs, but the demand for oil is not growing.
Most likely, oil prices will continue to decline in the short term. The next weekly official data on oil reserves in the US will be released on Wednesday (14:30 GMT). If the data indicates an increase in inventories, then this will have additional pressure on oil prices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
The price for Brent crude oil was down 2.8% on Friday, coming close to $ 46.30 per barrel. At the beginning of today's European session, the price for Brent crude is again traded near this mark, remaining under pressure. Last week, the price could not develop an upward movement above resistance level 49.60 (EMA50 and the upper limit of the descending channel on the daily chart). Over the last 3 trading sessions, the price has lost more than 7%, and having broken short-term support levels of 48.50 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 47.80 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), continues to decline in the downlink on the daily chart with immediate targets at levels Support 46.20 (Fibonacci level 50% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00), 44.50 (lows of the year). The more distant target is the level 41.70 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% and the lower boundary of the descending channel).
Strengthening the foreign exchange market dollar also contributes to lower commodity prices and oil prices. Only if the price is restored above the level of 48.50 can you consider the long positions again. The trend again changed to negative, and negative moods continue to dominate the oil market.
Support levels: 46.20, 45.50, 44.50, 41.70
Resistance levels: 47.80, 48.50, 48.80, 49.60, 50.70, 51.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 46.25. Stop-Loss 46.88. Take-Profit 46.00, 45.50, 44.50, 43.50, 41.70
Buy Stop 46.88. Stop-Loss 46.25. Take-Profit 47.25, 47.80, 48.50, 49.60, 50.00, 50.70, 51.00

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:11 am

AUD/USD: in July - in negative territory
11/07/2017

Current dynamics

Despite the growth of the third trading session in a row, the pair AUD / USD has been trading on negative territory since the beginning of the month. As you know, last week the Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50%, which has been at this level since August of last year. RBA Governor Philip Lowe held to neutral rhetoric, saying that the growth rate of wages remains low and "probably will be so for some time".
At the same time, the US dollar keeps the positions won earlier in the foreign exchange market. A number of positive macroeconomic data received from the US last week indicates a stable recovery of the economy and the labor market in the United States.
The number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in June grew by 222,000 in the US (the forecast was +174,000 new jobs). The estimates for May and April are also revised upwards.
The index of supply managers (PMI) for the US service sector in June, according to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), was 57.4 compared to 56.9 in May. The service sector accounts for the largest part of US GDP, and the fact that in June the growth of business activity accelerated in this area, indicates a positive momentum for growth in the US economy.
This week, market participants will closely follow the statement (on Wednesday 10:00 (GMT) and on Thursday 14:00 (GMT)) of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen. If, in her report to Congress, she confirms the Fed's intention to adhere to the planned tightening of monetary policy, the strengthening of the US dollar will continue.
Today, another representative of the Fed, Fed President San Francisco Williams, said that the pace of growth in wages and inflation in the US coincide with his predictions, and another increase in rates still fits into a "reasonable baseline scenario".
While the RBA says that "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy," and "the continuation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals of GDP, inflation" in Australia, the Fed systematically tightens monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policy of the Fed and the RBA will be an important fundamental factor that stimulates the sale of the AUD / USD pair.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
In general, the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair persists while it is trading above the key support level of 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
At the moment, the pair AUD / USD is trading on the short-term balance line 0.7608 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and is trying to develop positive dynamics within the short-term upward channels on 1-hour and 4-hour charts.
Only in case of breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7585 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 0.7570 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we speak of the predominance of the downside dynamics of the AUD / USD pair.
The fastening above the local resistance level 0.7635 will create prerequisites for the further growth of the AUD / USD pair.
In case of the development of the downward dynamics and breakdown of the key support level 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the bearish trend will again prevail in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair. In this case, the targets will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% of the correction to the wave of decline in the pair since July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).
Support levels: 0.7608, 0.7585, 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7500, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7710, 0.7780, 0.7840

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7590. Stop-Loss 0.7630. Take-Profit 0.7570, 0.7525, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7630. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7640, 0.7710, 0.7780, 0.7840


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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:14 am

GBP/USD: pound received support
12/07/2017
Current dynamics

After the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain presented today very encouraging data from the UK labor market, the pound strengthened in the foreign exchange market. According to the data provided, for the period March-May unemployment fell to 4.5%, the lowest level since 1975, while the number of unemployed fell by 64,000, and the number of workers reached a record high. The average salary (excluding premiums) in March-May increased by 2% (with the forecast for growth of 1.8%). However, real wages in the UK remain, nevertheless, at a low level, as consumer prices grew faster than wages. In May, inflation was 2.9%, demonstrating the fastest growth rates in almost four years. The decline in the British pound on the outcome of the referendum on Brexit provoked an increase in import prices and spurred inflation.
At a meeting of the Bank of England in June, three of the eight members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney also signaled the likelihood of policy tightening in the future. However, for this, according to Karni, requires a strong growth of companies' investments, which can neutralize the slowdown in the pace of consumer spending.
But there is another opinion on the tightening of monetary policy in the UK. So, today the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent said that, given the uncertainty of the economic outlook, "at the moment it is not worth making a decision (regarding raising rates)", and "there are many factors that can not be accurately assessed".
This week, market participants will closely follow the speech (Wednesday and Thursday 14:00 (GMT)) of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. It is likely that in her report before the US Congress she will confirm the Fed's intention to tighten monetary and credit policy. In this case, the strengthening of the US dollar will resume.
Also today, from 14:00 (GMT), volatility in the foreign exchange market could rise sharply due to the publication of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which must be taken into account when making trading decisions.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After the publication of data on the UK labor market, the pair GBP / USD rebounded from the key support level 1.2810 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and is currently trading above support level 1.2850 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). However, the positive momentum may not be enough to restore the positive dynamics of the pair GBP / USD.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily chart turned to short positions, signaling the continuation of the downward dynamics.
The support levels of 1.2850, 1.2810 are good deterrent levels from the further decline of the GBP / USD pair. In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2745 (EMA144 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD decline will accelerate to targets near the levels of 1.2590 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110.
If the positive dynamics of the pound returns, then the GBP / USD pair will resume growth with targets of 1.2980, 1.3050 (May highs), 1.3100, 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the pair GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 Near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.2850, 1.2810, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2910, 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2830. Stop-Loss 1.2870. Take-Profit 1.2810, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2485, 1.2365
Buy Stop 1.2870. Stop-Loss 1.2830. Take-Profit 1.2910, 1.2980, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:28 am

AUD/USD: near 4-month highs
13/07/2017

Current dynamics

Today, the pair AUD / USD again approached the annual highs of 4-month old near the 0.7745 mark. The Australian currency is growing, receiving double support from strong data on China's foreign trade balance and after the publication of the consumer price inflation indicator in Australia. According to data presented today (04:00 GMT + 3) by the Melbourne Institute, expectations for consumer price inflation rose 4.4% in July (the previous value + 3.6%). The high value of the indicator is positive for AUD.
A little later (05:00 GMT + 3) came out strong indicators on China's trade balance. According to the data provided, exports in June increased (for the fourth consecutive month) by 11.3% compared to the same period of the previous year after an increase of 8.7% in May.
The annual import growth in June was 17.2% after the growth of 14.8% in May (the forecast was + 12.4% compared to the same period of the previous year).
China's foreign trade surplus rose to $ 42.77 billion in June from $ 40.81 billion in May, with a forecast of $ 44.2 billion; By about 5%.
China is the largest trade and economic partner and buyer of primary commodities in Australia. Iron ore and coking coal account for about 30% and 12% of Australia's commodity exports, respectively. And most of the Australian raw materials exports are directed to China. Therefore, strong macroeconomic indicators from China have a positive impact on the quotes of the Australian currency.
At the same time, the AUD / USD pair is growing on the weakening of the US dollar after yesterday, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen in his report in the US Congress confirmed plans for a "gradual" increase in interest rates. However, in her opinion, it is necessary to adhere to the gradual way of raising interest rates in the next few years.
Today, Janet Yellen speaks to the US Senate Banking Committee. Investors are mostly skeptical about further tightening of monetary policy in the US against the backdrop of a slowdown in inflation. It is likely that today Janet Yellen will not say anything new. Market participants are ready for the December rate increase in the US, but will closely follow the performance of Yellen. Any hints from Yellen about the possibility of raising the rate in September will cause a sharp increase in the US dollar. Janet Yellen's speech will begin at 17:00 (GMT + 3).
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of today's European session, the pair AUD / USD is trading at the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart, closely approaching the annual highs near the 0.7745 mark.
The positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair is maintained above the key support level of 0.7530 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart). The targets for the AUD / USD pair in case of its further growth will be the levels of 0.7780 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline from July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.8000 (EMA200 On a weekly chart).
Only in case of breakdown of short-term support levels of 0.7585 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 0.7635 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) can we speak about the return of the downward dynamics of the AUD / USD pair.
In the case of the development of the downward dynamics and breakdown of the key support level 0.7535 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the bearish trend will again prevail in the dynamics of the AUD / USD pair. In this case, the targets will be the levels of 0.7460 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% of the correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014, the minimum wave is near 0.6830), 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330 (November and May lows).
Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7635, 0.7585, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Levels of resistance: 0.7750, 0.7780, 0.7840, 0.8000

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7690. Stop-Loss 0.7750. Take-Profit 0.7635, 0.7600, 0.7585, 0.7535, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330
Buy Stop 0.7750. Stop-Loss 0.7690. Take-Profit 0.7780, 0.7840, 0.7900, 0.8000

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:00 am

S&P500: pending key inflation data
14/07/2017

Current dynamics

Today, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range in anticipation of the publication of key US inflation indicators. Investors will also closely monitor the reporting of the largest US banks. Today begins the reporting period for US banks, including Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and PNC Financial Services Inc.
Shares of American banks in the last three weeks gained almost 6% in the hope that a gradual increase in interest rates will lead to an increase in their income from lending. The Fed has planned another rate hike this year, but some investors are still skeptical about further tightening of monetary policy. Fed executives are calling for waiting for more robust signals about inflation in the US to continue raising interest rates in the US.
This opinion was yesterday held by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Neil Kashkari, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Lael Brainard.
In general, so far the positive dynamics of the indices against the backdrop of the growth of corporate profits remains. However, the rhetoric of the world's central banks has changed toward a more stringent monetary policy. It seems that, amid the strengthening of the world economy, stimulating programs in countries with the largest economies may soon be curtailed. And this is a negative factor for the stock markets.
At (12:30 GMT) the US consumer price index and retail sales report are published. Investors will pay close attention to the data to understand whether the recent weakening of inflation is temporary. The reaction of the dollar and the US stock market to inflation data is acute, given that these data, along with data on the labor market and GDP, play a key role in the decision making by the Fed at the interest rate.
It is expected that in June, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% (after a decrease of 0.1% in May) and by 1.7% in annual terms. Such an increase in inflation will not satisfy the Fed and will help to weaken the US dollar, but will also support American stock markets. But if the consumer price index comes out in June with better indicators than the forecast, the dollar will strengthen in the foreign exchange market, while stock indices, including the S & P500 index, will decrease.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
With the opening of today's trading day, the S & P500 index slightly decreased, trading in a narrow range near the mark of 2445.0.
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart are on the buyers side, however, on the 4-hour, 1-hour chart, the indicators turned to short positions, signaling an overdue correction after many days of growth.
In the event of a downward correction, the S & P500 may fall to the support levels 2433.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 2426.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the uplink on the daily chart).
The OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the weekly chart also turned to short positions.
If the negative trend increases, then the deeper decline of the index to support levels of 2405.0 (June and July lows), 2390.0, 2355.0, near which the bottom line of the rising channel passes on the weekly chart, is possible.
While the price is above 2325.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 2305.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to growth since February 2016), the positive dynamics of the index remains. In the event of a breakdown of the resistance level 2452.0 (June and year highs), the growth of the index will resume.
Support levels: 2433.0, 2426.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2325.0, 2305.0
Resistance level: 2452.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2420.0. Stop-Loss 2432.0. Objectives 2415.0, 2405.0, 2390.0, 2355.0, 2320.0, 2305.0
Buy Stop 2432.0. Stop-Loss 2420.0. Objectives 2438.0, 2452.0, 2500.00
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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:47 am

DJIA: the indices rose after the publication of inflation data
17/07/2017

Current dynamics

After Friday's weak data on retail sales and inflation in the US were published, the main US stock indexes rose. As the US Department of Labor reported on Friday, the consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged in June compared to the previous month (0.0% in June, + 1.6% in annual terms, vs forecast +0.1% and +1.7%, respectively). Retail sales in June, according to the data presented, fell by 0.2% compared to May (sales were expected to increase by 0.1%). These data are key for the Fed in the matter of making an interest rate decision.
Investors bought shares and bonds on Friday, as weak data on retail sales and inflation suggest that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and reduce assets in the coming months. Against the background of purchases of 10-year US Treasury bonds, their profitability declined from 2.319% to 2.298% after the publication of macro data.
The S & P500 index rose 0.5% on Friday to 2459.00 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 0.4% to 21637.00 points. Last week was the most successful for both indices from the end of May. So, S&P500 for the week gained 1.4%, and DJIA grew by 1%.
On Friday, the reporting season for US banks began, the results were published by Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and PNC Financial Services Inc. Hopes for high financial results of companies for the 2-nd quarter also support the US stock indexes.
Shares of US banks over the past three weeks have risen in price. Also last week, shares of technology companies in the United States grew. The subindex of the technology sector of the S & P500 grew by 3.8%, showing the best weekly result in 2017.
Now, after the publication of the data, the probability of an increase in the rate in December, according to the CME Group, fell below the level of 50%. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan on Thursday made it clear that he would like to wait for the acceleration of inflation before raising interest rates again. It is likely that the Fed in the future may be more prudent approach to raising rates. If the Fed again adheres to mild rhetoric regarding monetary policy, it will stimulate the US stock market to further growth.
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Support and resistance levels
DJIA updated its annual highs on Friday and reached a new absolute maximum near the mark of 21680.0. The DJIA index continues to grow steadily, starting from February 2016 and trading in the ascending channels on the daily and weekly charts.
So far, the index is trading above the key support level of 20300.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart, as well as the Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the growth in the wave from the level of 15660.0 after rebounding in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level 0% is near the mark of 21536.0), its medium-term positive dynamics is preserved. The long positions in the DJIA index trade are relevant.
Against the background of low inflation in the US and the Fed's predilection, in connection with this, to a cautious approach in the matter of further interest rate hikes, the further growth of the DJIA index is likely.
Only in case of breakdown of the support level of 21360.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) can we again return to consideration of short positions on the DJIA index. And only in case of breakdown of the support level of 19380.0 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%) can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
Support levels: 21510.0, 21360.0, 21100.0, 20600.0, 20300.0
Resistance levels: 21680.0, 22000.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 21690.0. Stop-Loss 21500.0. Take-Profit 21700.0, 21800.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 21500.0. Stop-Loss 21690.0. Take-Profit 21360.0, 21100.0, 21000.0, 20600.0

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:15 am

GBP / USD: The pound fell after the publication of inflation data
18/07/2017
Current dynamics

After the data on inflation in the UK were published at the beginning of today's European session, the pound fell sharply in the foreign exchange market. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the UK consumer price index in June rose by 2.6% compared with the same period last year after rising by 2.9% in May.
Although annual inflation remains well above the target level of the Bank of England at 2%, and consumer prices are growing stronger than the level of wages. The price pressure on the company is already decreasing for the 5th consecutive month. Wage growth rates lag behind inflation, so the British have already reduced their spending, which led to a slowdown in the economy in the first quarter of this year.
The fall in household incomes, caused by a sharp drop in the pound, is a deterrent for the Bank of England in raising interest rates, despite high inflation.
Today at 13:30 (GMT) the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney is scheduled. It will be interesting to hear what he thinks about the future plans of the Bank of England against the background of inflation data presented today.
The pound fell sharply today and against the US dollar, despite the fact that the dollar fell significantly today in the foreign exchange market after it became known that the Obamacare health program will not be canceled in the near future. This means that other Trump legal initiatives (revision of the tax code or fiscal stimulus) may also run into obstacles. The ICE dollar index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, fell by 0.3% on Tuesday, to a 10-month low. Since the beginning of this year, the dollar index fell by 7.2%.
As the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent said last week, "at the moment, it is not worth making a decision (regarding raising rates). There are many factors that can not be measured accurately, "given the uncertainty of the prospects for the UK economy.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After today's data on inflation, the pair GBP / USD fell sharply. The fall of the pair was approximately 100 points. Previously, the GBP / USD pair rose, updating the annual high near the 1.3120 mark.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts turned to short positions, signaling the beginning of a downward correction.
If the decline continues, the GBP / USD pair will go to support levels 1.2980 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2880 (2880 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart).
In the case of breakdown of the support level 1.2820 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the GBP / USD decline will accelerate to targets near the levels of 1.2590 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), 1.2365, 1.2110.
The positive dynamics of the GBP / USD pair persists while it is trading above the key support level of 1.2820 (EMA200 on the daily chart).
In case of breakdown of the local resistance level 1.3120, the GBP / USD pair will resume growth with the targets of 1.3210 (Fibonacci level 23.6% correction to the GBP / USD decline in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the weekly chart), 1.3300 (the upper line of the ascending channel on the weekly chart).
Support levels: 1.3000, 1.2980, 1.2940, 1.2880, 1.2820, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3300

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3000. Stop-Loss 1.3055. Take-Profit 1.2980, 1.2940, 1.2880, 1.2820, 1.2765, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2590, 1.2550, 1.2365, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.3055. Stop-Loss 1.3000. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3120, 1.3210, 1.3300

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:05 am

XAG/USD: precious metals rose in price
19/07/2017

Current dynamics

Against the backdrop of a sharp weakening of the US dollar and again increased political uncertainty in the US, precious metals are once again rising in price. Last week, the dollar showed the strongest decline since May. Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, Janet Yellen, was more cautious in favor of further raising interest rates in the US. Published on Friday, inflation data in the US, which turned out to be much weaker than expected, triggered large-scale sales of the US dollar. At the moment, investors estimate the 48% probability that the Fed will perform another rate hike this year.
Yesterday, the dollar received another blow after the news that the Republicans had failed to abolish the Obamacare Act. Another failure of the Republicans again brought back concerns about the ability of the presidential administration to fulfill pre-election promises to stimulate the US economy.
The political uncertainty, aggravated in the US, weak US macroeconomic indicators, which contribute to the weakening of the dollar, once again raise investors' interest in buying precious metals, including silver. Precious metals do not bring investment income. However, in the context of increasing economic or political uncertainty, the demand for precious metals as a safe haven is growing.
We are waiting for the data from the USA today. At 12:30 (GMT), data from the US primary housing market for June. The indicator of the dynamics of new building permits is an important indicator of the housing market. If the data prove to be better than the forecast (1.20 million new permits), the dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market. Otherwise, and with the arrival of weak data, the US dollar will decrease, and silver prices will rise.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The pair XAG / USD was able to break through the short-term resistance level at 16.02 and is growing, pushing back at the end of last week from the support level of 15.60.
Nevertheless, more confident growth of the pair XAG / USD and consideration of long positions on it can be said after the pair XAG / USD consolidates above the important short-term resistance level of 16.37 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).
In the meantime, the negative medium-term dynamics prevails, while the pair XAG / USD is traded in the descending channel on the daily chart, well below the resistance level of 17.05 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart). The lower boundary of the channel passes near the support level of 14.30 (the minimums of January 2016).
In case of breakdown of the support level of 16.02, the fall of the pair XAG / USD will resume.
The level of 14.30 will become the target mark with a further decline in the pair XAG / USD. A more distant goal is the level of 13.65 (the minimum of the global wave of decline in the pair XAG / USD from September 2012).
Support levels: 16.02, 15.60, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30, 13.65
Resistance levels: 16.37, 16.68, 17.05

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 16.10. Stop-Loss 16.38. Take-Profit 16.00, 15.25, 14.90, 14.30
Buy Stop 16.38. Stop-Loss 16.10. Take-Profit 16.68, 17.05, 17.10

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