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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:00 am

AUD/USD: GDP data supported the Australian dollar
07/06/2017

Current dynamics

While all the attention of investors is concentrated these days on Europe, the Australian dollar has received powerful support today from positive macro statistics and is actively growing in the foreign exchange market. The Australian dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market, and the AUD / USD pair has been growing for the fourth consecutive session.
According to the data released today, Australia's GDP in the first quarter grew by 0.3% (the forecast was + 0.2%) against + 1.1% in the previous quarter and by 1.7% in annual terms (forecast was +1.5 %). The data turned out to be better than the forecast, which inspired market participants, who resumed purchases of the Australian currency, despite the fact that this is the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2009.
The growth of the Australian economy continues for 26 years after the recession that ended in the early 1990s. Over the years, the country's economy has become one of the most sustainable in the world.
Nevertheless, slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP can not but alarm the monetary authorities and the Australian government.
As you know, yesterday, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved, the capacity utilization has increased, however, there are other risks for the country's economy that restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.
At the same time, the slowdown in China's economy, Australia's largest trade and economic partner, its high debt levels represent an external medium-term risk factor for economic growth in Australia.
On Thursday (01:30 GMT), the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish data on the foreign trade balance of Australia for April. A decrease in the balance surplus is expected to reach 1.91 billion Australian dollars. First of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the export data, which is the most important component of the country's budget. Reduction of the balance and export level surplus may negatively affect the quotations of the Australian dollar.
Also on Thursday and Friday during the Asian trading session in China, published a number of important macroeconomic indicators (for May). If the data indicate deterioration in China's foreign trade balance and a slowdown in inflation, the Australian dollar may also react with a decline.

Support and resistance levels
The AUD / USD pair broke the key resistance level 0.7510 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart) at a strong positive momentum at the beginning of the month from the support level of 0.7375 (the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart and on the weekly chart) and develops an upward trend.
The pair AUD / USD is trading in the uplink on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which is above the resistance level of 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts went to the side of buyers.
The pair's growth will continue with the targets of 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014), provided the US dollar remains weak. A more distant medium-term goal in this case is the level of 0.8000 (EMA200 on the weekly chart). If the positive dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains, this goal can be achieved by September-October of the current year.
The reverse scenario implies a return to the descending channel on the daily chart and the resumption of the decline in the wave that began in mid-March. The breakdown of the short-term support level at 0.7460 (EMA200 on 1-hour, 4-hour charts and 23.6% Fibonacci level) will confirm this scenario. The nearest medium-term goal in case of further decline in the pair will be the level of 0.7330 (November and May lows). The next target in case of breakdown of this support level is the level of 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum of wave in the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
Support levels: 0.7510, 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7610, 0.7680, 0.7760

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7490. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7460, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300, 0.7200, 0.7155
Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7530. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7680, 0.7760

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:47 am

DJIA: US stock indexes are rising
08/06/2017

Current dynamics

Despite all the volatility of foreign exchange markets and the uncertainty in the world political arena observed in recent weeks, the US stock market remains stable, as evidenced by the continued growth of major US stock indexes.
While the index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against 16 other currencies, declined in recent months to a level near the level of 88.00 (on Tuesday the index closed at a minimum since November 4), and the yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to the level of 2.1 % -2.2%, US stock indexes are breaking new records. So, the S & P500 index rose by 1.2% in May. DJIA and S & P500 rose for the second month in a row. But the biggest increase is demonstrated by the technological index Nasdaq, which in May grew by 2.5%, and the Nasdaq index has been growing for the seventh month in a row.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes shares of the largest US banks, also demonstrates a stable upward trend, which began in February last year.
Even after the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market, published last Friday, the main US stock indexes rose again. The unemployment rate reached a minimum in May for 16 years, down to 4.3% from 4.4% in April. In general, the report on the US labor market is favorable enough for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The probability of this is estimated by investors at about 90%.
"Given the good state of the economy", as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker said last week, we can expect further growth in US stock indices, even though the Fed will raise the interest rate.
Uncertainty about the implementation of the new economic policy of US President Donald Trump seems to be less worrisome for investors who are betting on the growth of the US stock market.
Today and tomorrow, a volatility surge is expected in the foreign exchange market due to the fact that
the ECB decides on the interest rate, there will be elections in the UK, and in the US, a former FBI head James Komi will speak in a Senate committee, testifying to the possible impact of Russia on the election campaign in the US, which can further complicate the position of President Donald Trump . The most cautious traders today took a wait-and-see attitude.
With respect to the US stock indices, we can say that strong corporate reports for the first quarter, evidence of a stable recovery in the US economy, and a policy of gradual increase in interest rates in the US create the basis for further growth of the US stock market.

Support and resistance levels
At the beginning of the month the DJIA index exceeded the recent annual highs near 21170.0 and closed last week at the new absolute maximum of 21200.0.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts continue to remain on the side of buyers. The DJIA index continues to grow in the ascending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts. In case of breakdown of the level 21200.0, the growth of the index may continue.
In the alternative scenario, a short-term correction to the lower border of the uplink and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart (level 21115.0) is possible. Deeper correction movement is possible to the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart (level 20600.0).
If the downward trend is to increase, then the decline in the index may extend to support levels of 20360.0 (April lows), 19990.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart and December highs), 19850.0 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after recovery in February this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and the Fibonacci level of 0% are near the mark of 21170.0).
The positive dynamics of the US stock market and DJIA index remains. Only in case of breakdown of the support level 19850.0 can we speak about the breakdown of the bullish trend.
Support levels: 21170.0, 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0, 20500.0, 20360.0, 19990.0, 19850.0
Resistance levels: 21200.0, 22000.0

Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 21090.0. Take-Profit 21220.0, 22000.0
Sell Stop 21090.0. Stop-Loss 21220.0. Take-Profit 21020.0, 21000.0, 20965.0, 20825.0, 20600.0

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:46 am

XAG/USD: The dollar is strengthening
09/06/2017
Current dynamics

The third trading session the dollar strengthens in the foreign exchange market against the assets-shelters - yen, franc, precious metals. The dollar received an additional positive impulse today after the first results of the elections to the UK Parliament became known, and after the ECB yesterday's meeting. As you know, the ECB kept the benchmark interest rate at 0%, the deposit rate - at the level of -0.4%, the rate on marginal loans - at the level of 0.25%. The QE program, in which the ECB monthly buys European assets worth 60 billion euros, has also remained unchanged.
The pound today collapsed in the foreign exchange market immediately after the first results of the exit poll of the elections became known yesterday at 21:00 (GMT), according to which the Conservatives and its leader, the current Prime Minister of Britain, Theresa May, failed to achieve an absolute majority in the country's parliament. The ruling Conservative party, although it remains the largest in the parliament, received 314 of 650 seats. Most votes are provided by 326 seats. Any factors that increase uncertainty around Brexit will be negative for the pound and the British stock market.
The US dollar, meanwhile, is building up its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which reflects the value of the US dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, rose yesterday by 0.1%, to 88.21.
Now, after the ECB meeting, investors' attention shifts to a meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which will be held on June 13-14. Most market participants expect an interest rate increase of 0.25%.
August gold futures fell 1.2% yesterday, to 1278.20 dollars per troy ounce.
Other precious metals, in particular silver, are also falling in price. The pair XAG / USD is down today for the third consecutive session, trading during today's European session near the mark of 17.35 dollars per troy ounce. The probability of an increase in the interest rate in the US next week is estimated by investors higher than 90%. As you know, higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive to investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
And, nevertheless, the continuing geopolitical risks, as well as political uncertainty in the UK, the US, France, where elections to the local parliament will also take place this weekend, support the demand for precious metals.
Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 12:30 (GMT) of data from the labor market of Canada, which may increase volatility in the foreign exchange market.

Support and resistance levels
For the past 4 weeks, the pair XAG / USD has skyrocketed in the upward short-term channel on the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of which is close to the level of 17.86.
At the moment, after a three-day corrective decline, the pair XAG / USD is trading near support levels of 17.25 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the uplink on the 4-hour chart), 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart).
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts went to the side of sellers.
The reduction scenario is associated with a breakthrough in the support level at 17.25 and a further decline in the downward channel on the daily chart with targets of 16.85 (the Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the fall of the pair since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016 ).
The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD are the levels of 17.58 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.
More distant medium-term targets are the levels 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
In the dynamics of the pair XAG / USD, one should pay attention to the current correlation with the pairs USD / JPY (-85%), XAU / USD (71%). Given the rather high cross-correlation, and how these pairs are relative to key support levels (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), the conclusion suggests: either the pair XAG / USD will grow slightly (within 1.0% - 1.5%), Or remain at the current level of 17.35 (key support level (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), but provided that the dollar in pairs USD / JPY, XAU / USD increases by the same amount (1.0% - 1.5%).
In the current situation of geopolitical uncertainty and on the eve of the Fed meeting next week, both options are possible.
Support levels: 17.35, 17.25, 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Resistance levels: 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 17.23. Stop-Loss 17.46. Take-Profit 17.00, 16.85, 16.20, 15.72
Buy Stop 17.46. Stop-Loss 17.23. Take-Profit 17.58, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:55 am

NZD/USD: when will the pair begin to decline?
13/06/2017

Current dynamics

This week a number of important events will take place: meetings of central banks of Switzerland, Great Britain, Japan. However, the focus of traders will be a two-day meeting of the Fed (June 13-14) and the Fed's decision on the interest rate, which will be published June 14 at 18:00 (GMT). Forecast: the rate will be increased by 0.25% to 1.25%. After the decision on the interest rate, a comment on the monetary policy (FOMC Statement) is published and the press conference of the Federal Reserve begins. In the period of publication, a surge in volatility is expected across the financial market, and market participants will study the statement of the Fed on the presence of signals for further plans for monetary policy.
Higher interest rates tend to support the dollar, making US assets more attractive to investors, and putting pressure on commodity prices and commodity currencies. If the Fed signals about the possibility of one or two more rate increases this year, the US dollar will receive significant support.
Also on Wednesday (at 22:45 GMT) a report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter is published. Forecast: + 0.7% (previous value + 0.4%). The publication of data will cause increased volatility in NZD. Against the background of rising prices for agricultural products in recent years (especially for dairy products, which is an important part of New Zealand's exports), it is likely that the report on New Zealand's GDP for the first quarter will come with positive indicators, and this will positively affect the positions of the New Zealand currency.
If the GDP report turns out to be worse than expected, and the Fed signals about the possibility of further interest rate hikes, then the NZD / USD pair may drop sharply and finally begin a corrective downward movement to the pair's active growth from the middle of last month.
Otherwise, the pair NZD / USD will continue its upward movement against the backdrop of positive macro data coming in from New Zealand recently.
We also await data from New Zealand on the balance of payments for the first quarter (it is expected that the negative balance was 1 billion New Zealand dollars against the surplus of 1.18 billion NZ dollars in the 1st quarter of last year), which are published today at 10:45 (GMT) And data from China (retail sales, industrial production in May) on Wednesday morning, which will increase the volatility of trades on the New Zealand dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and Resistance levels
As a result of active growth, which began in the middle of last month, the pair NZD / USD broke through a strong resistance level of 0.7190 (EMA144 on the weekly chart) and came close to the resistance level of 0.7235 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the global fall wave from the level of 0.8800 , Which began in July 2014, the minimums of December 2016).
A little higher, through to the resistance level of 0.7270 is the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart. Thus, the NZD / USD pair is in the zone of strong resistance levels. For further growth and breakdown of these levels, the pair NZD / USD needs strong positive fundamental drivers, for example, signals from the RBNZ about the possibility of an early interest rate increase in New Zealand. The next meeting of the RBNZ on this issue will be held on June 21, ie. Already next week.
As you know, RBNZ last month kept interest rate at 1.75% and stated that interest rates will remain unchanged for quite a long time, at least until the third quarter of 2019. If, however, in the rhetoric of the bank will be marked a more rigid position, the New Zealand dollar will receive a strong support, and then the resistance level of 0.7270 can be passed.
Otherwise, the New Zealand dollar and the pair NZD / USD are waiting for a decline.
While the RBNZ seeks to keep the current monetary policy unchanged, the Fed says it plans to gradually tighten monetary policy in the US. The difference between the monetary policies of the RBNZ and the Fed will remain the main fundamental factor in favor of the US dollar in the next couple of years, despite the possible growth periods for the NZD / USD pair over several weeks.
The return of the pair NZD / USD to the short-term support level 0.7165 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) may trigger a further decline in the NZD / USD pair and in the medium term with a target near the key support level of 0.7050 (EMA200, EMA144, EMA50 on the daily chart).
By the way, indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the daily period begin to unfold on short positions.
Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6860, 0.6818
Resistance levels: 0.7235, 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7190. Stop-Loss 0.7240. Take-Profit 0.7165, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6945, 0.6900, 0.6885, 0.6820
Buy Stop 0.7240. Stop-Loss 0.7190. Take-Profit 0.7270, 0.7300, 0.7380

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:54 am

GBP/USD: inflation "eats" the wages of Britons
14/06/2017

Overview and dynamics

Despite the fact that the Fed is expected to raise the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point following its two-day meeting, which will end today, the dollar remains under pressure in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ, which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, decreased by 0.2%, to 88.31. The probability of such a decision on the part of the Fed is estimated by investors at 100%.
Nevertheless, market participants are waiting for a press conference (will begin at 18:30 GMT) and comments of the Fed to assess further plans for interest rates and reducing the balance.
The rate increase today at 0.25% is already taken into account in prices. And if the Fed signals about the suspension of tightening monetary policy, the US dollar will further fall. Slowing inflation in the US could alert the Fed.
So, today at 12:30 (GMT) a block of the most important macro data from the USA is published, including inflation indices (retail sales and consumer price index for May). Nearly zero growth in May is expected (+ 0.1% and + 0.0%, respectively), which again indicates a slowdown or a very weak inflation rate in the US.
If the Fed signals about the possibility of raising the rate one or two more times this year, the dollar will rise sharply in the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of such a scenario is also possible. As the Fed officials said more recently, the central bank can go on raising rates, despite a weak inflation rate, in order to avoid overheating the economy and the growth of soap bubbles in the US stock market.
As for the pound, yesterday, along with the Canadian dollar, it was among the leaders of growth against the US dollar. The pound rose on strong inflation data from the European session yesterday (the consumer price index in the UK rose to 2.9% in May in annual terms (the forecast was + 2.7%)), the highest level in nearly four years.
Today, the pair GBP / USD demonstrates the reverse dynamics and declines at the beginning of the European session. According to the data published on Wednesday, the level of wages adjusted for inflation fell for the second consecutive month compared to the same period last year. Real wages declined by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. This could negatively affect the growth of the British economy, which is highly dependent on domestic consumption. Consumer spending is an important component of UK GDP growth.
On Thursday, the Bank of England (11:00 GMT) decides on the interest rate. It is likely that the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.25%. Also at this time are published: a report on the monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as with comments on the state of the economy; the protocol of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with the distribution of votes for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The Bank of England will be very cautious about the issue of raising the interest rate, despite the high level of inflation in the country.
The intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains. In the period of publication of the decision of the bank and during its subsequent press conference, the volatility of the pound trade is expected, which is already characterized by its high intraday volatility.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Technical analysis
Despite support from strong inflation data, the pair GBP / USD failed to break through resistance level 1.2800 (EMA200 on 1-hour and daily charts), and after the publication of data on the labor market in the UK in the European session again declining.
The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.
At the moment, the pair GBP / USD is trading at support level 1.2715 (EMA144 on the daily chart). In case of a breakdown of the support level of 1.2640 (June lows and the lower limit of the uplink on the daily chart), the GBP / USD pair will accelerate.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
Negative dynamics prevails. The pair GBP / USD decline will continue with the nearest targets near the levels 1.2550, 1.2340, between which the lower limit of the ascending channel passes on the weekly chart.
The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2825 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% GBP / USD in the wave, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200 and the upper limit of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.2715, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2825, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2770. Take-Profit 1.2600, 1.2520, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.2770. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:14 am

AUD/USD: after the Fed meeting
15/06/2017
Current dynamics

As a result of a two-day meeting, the Fed raised yesterday the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25%. The decision was expected, and the dollar reacted with sufficient restraint to it. The dollar began to strengthen later, when at 18:30 (GMT) the FRS press conference began, from which it became known that the Fed is planning another increase towards the end of the year, as well as cutting its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. The portfolio of FRS assets rose to the current level from 800 billion dollars before the crisis, which was due to a number of bond purchase programs aimed at reducing long-term interest rates.
According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by the strengthening of the dollar.
Thus, the Fed once again confirmed its intention to tighten monetary policy in the US.
As is known, at the beginning of the month, the RB of Australia left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. As it was said in the accompanying statement, "the strengthening of the Australian dollar will complicate the adjustment of the economy", and "the preservation of rates unchanged corresponds to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation". As noted in the RBA, the conditions for doing business in the country have improved; however, there are other risks for the country's economy, which restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy. Slow growth rates of wages and incomes of the population of Australia, increased unemployment and low, according to the RBA, the growth rate of the country's GDP will restrain the RBA from tightening monetary policy.
The volatility of commodity prices, in particular iron ore, one of Australia's major export commodities, and their propensity to decline against the expected strengthening of the US dollar, also represents one of the significant risks to the Australian economy, which still retains the raw material features in many respects.
The Australian dollar has grown today after the release of data showing a sharp increase in employment and a drop in the unemployment rate. Thus, the unemployment rate in May fell to 5.5% from 5.7% in April. The number of employees increased by 42,000 (with a growth by forecast of 10,000). The Australian labor market data was optimistic and supported the Australian dollar. Nevertheless, the divergence of the directions of the monetary policy of the Fed and other world central banks supports the US dollar. This situation can also be attributed to the pair AUD / USD. If the Fed plans to raise the interest rate, the RBA intends to adhere to the current rate at least until the second half of 2018.
We are waiting for today news from the US, which will increase volatility in pairs with the US dollar, including in the pair AUD / USD. A number of important macro data will be published between 12:30 and 14:00 (GMT), among which the weekly report of the US Department of Labor, containing data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is expected to decrease to 242,000 versus 245,000 for the previous period, which should positively affect the US dollar. Also data on industrial production in the US for May and the use of production capacity will be published.
However, today and in the near future investors will still assess the results of the two-day meeting of the Fed and the increase in the interest rate in the US.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Unlike other major currency pairs, the pair AUD / USD rose today during the Asian and European sessions, which was supported, among other things, by positive data from the Australian labor market published this morning.
Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to the indications of the indicators OsMA and Stochastics, which on the 1-hour, 4-hour, daily charts are deployed to short positions. On the general background of today's US dollar growth, the AUD / USD pair is likely to follow other dollar-denominated currency pairs. If in the course of the US trading session there are positive macro data on the US, it will probably become the trigger for the fall of the AUD / USD pair.
"First Swallow" will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 0.7580 (EMA50 on the 1-hour chart). The fall in the AUD / USD pair in this case may continue to the support level of 0.7540 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).
The breakdown of the support level of 0.7514 (EMA200 on the daily chart) will confirm the scenario for the fall of the pair AUD / USD. The closest target in case of further decline of the pair will be the levels of 0.7495 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6%).
The following targets in case of breakdown of this support level - 0.7330 (November, May lows), 0.7155 (May, December minima of 2016). The minimum wave of the last global decline of the pair since July 2014 is close to the level of 0.6830.
If the pair AUD / USD maintains its positive dynamics, its growth will continue with the targets of 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7760 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 0.7840 (the Fibonacci level of 38.2% correction to the wave of the pair's decline since July 2014).
Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300
Resistance levels: 0.7635, 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7540, 0.7514, 0.7495, 0.7460, 0.7445, 0.7420, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7300
Buy Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7680, 0.7700, 0.7760

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:35 am

XAG/USD: The dollar will build up positions
16/06/2017
Current dynamics

After on Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, the dollar is steadily increasing its positions in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60. The central bank also made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, which provided additional support to the dollar. Yesterday, ambiguous macro data on the United States came out. Although the weekly report on the number of claims for unemployment benefits showed a value of 237,000 against the forecast of 242,000, the labor market in the US looks quite stable.
As you know, on Wednesday the Fed raised the interest rate by 25 basis points, to the range of 1-1.25% and signaled the possibility of another rate hike near the end of the year. The US Central Bank also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.
Higher interest rates make dollar assets more attractive for investors, and lead to the sale of precious metals that do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
The Fed raised the rate, despite the recent slowdown in consumer inflation in the US. The Fed also reiterated that it plans to cut its budget, which is about 4.5 trillion US dollars. According to some economists' estimates, the reduction of assets by $ 675 billion by 2019 will be equivalent to raising the key short-term interest rate of the Federal Reserve by a quarter of a percentage point. The process of reducing the balance of the Fed will also lead to an increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, which will be accompanied by a strengthening of the dollar and, again, a decline in the price of gold and silver. Precious metals are getting cheaper, even despite the continuing geopolitical tensions. Apparently, the prospect of another increase near the end of the year outweighs the chalice in favor of sellers and exerts additional pressure on the assets of the shelter, including silver.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
The price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. The XAG / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 17.35 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.14 (EMA200, EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 16.85 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% corrective growth to the pair's decline since August 2016 and the level of 20.59), 16.05, 15.72 (low of 2016) and continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts.
The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.72 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will become a medium-term goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and a decline in the pair XAG / USD.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers’ side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the levels of 16.85, 17.00. The immediate goal in the case of continued growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.35, 17.58 (Fibonacci level of 38.2%). Here, the upper line of the descending channel passes on the daily and weekly charts.
More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the pair XAG / USD – are the levels of 17.86 (EMA144 on the weekly chart), 18.17 (Fibonacci 50%), 18.48 (EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.75 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
Negative dynamics still prevails.
Support levels: 16.65, 16.20, 16.05, 15.72
Resistance levels: 16.85, 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 16.65. Stop-Loss 16.85. Take-Profit 16.20, 16.05, 15.72
Buy Stop 16.85. Stop-Loss 16.65. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.14, 17.35, 17.58, 17.70, 17.86, 18.17, 18.48, 18.75

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:31 am

Brent: the number of drilling in the US rose again
19/06/2017

Current dynamics

The new trading week, the price of oil begins with a decline. Brent crude futures for ICE Futures fell to $ 47.23 a barrel during today's Asian session. Published on Friday, data from the American oil service company Baker Hughes showed that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased again last week, this time by six units to 747 units, which was the 22nd consecutive week of the increase.
Earlier, quotes of oil fell for four consecutive weeks. Despite the recent extension of the OPEC-Russia deal to reduce oil production for another 9 months, the excess supply in the oil market remains, and the world's oil reserves remain high. Oil prices since the beginning of this year have fallen by 17%, losing the positions won after the deal in late 2016.
The increase in oil production in the United States and other major oil-producing countries largely offset OPEC's efforts to limit oil production. After the entry into force of the OPEC agreement other countries as a whole reduced production by about 1.8 million barrels a day. During the same time, the US increased production by 750,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels a day, the maximum since the summer of 2015. In fact, by the efforts of the US alone, more than a third of the reduced production was offset. And this apart from prey in other countries, such as Brazil, Libya, Canada.
Libya recently reported plans to increase oil production by 160,000 barrels per day. Previously, production in Libya at these facilities was suspended for almost two years. According to experts, by the end of July, daily oil production in Libya could grow to 1 million barrels.
There are all prerequisites to the fact that the volume of oil supply in the US will also increase more and more, further reducing the effect of the agreement within OPEC. Increasing the efficiency of oil production in the United States can reduce the cost of production to less than $ 40 per barrel against $ 63 in 2014.
Now investors expect further price reductions and are hedged against the potential drop in oil prices in the coming months below $ 41 per barrel.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
On a weekly chart, the price of Brent crude oil broke the lower border of the rising channel near the current level of 47.10 and develops a downward trend. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers. On the monthly chart the indicators also unfold to short positions.
At the beginning of the month the price broke through the important support levels of 51.35 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (the Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark) and is currently declining to The support level is 46.20 (the Fibonacci level is 50.0%). In case of consolidation below level 46.20, the upward trend of the price of Brent oil may be canceled.
The scenario for strengthening the price is connected with the breakdown of the local resistance level of 48.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and further growth within the rising channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which passes near the level of 62.00.
Nevertheless, negative sentiments continue to dominate the oil market, and against this background, oil prices remain under pressure with a tendency to further decline.
Support levels: 47.10, 46.20, 45.50
Resistance levels: 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 47.10. Stop-Loss 47.80. Take-Profit 46.20, 45.50, 43.50
Buy Stop 47.80. Stop-Loss 47.10. Take-Profit 48.35, 50.00, 50.70, 51.35, 52.50, 53.00

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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:56 am

XAG/USD: precious metals are getting cheaper amid plans of the Fed
20/06/2017
Current dynamics


After last Wednesday the Fed announced an increase in the key interest rate, precious metals continued to go down in the foreign exchange market. The index of the dollar WSJ rose above the level of 88.60, to the level of 88.75 on Monday. The American Central Bank made it clear that it could once again raise rates in 2017, and also planned to reduce its balance by $ 4.5 trillion later this year.
According to the CME Group, futures on interest rates by the Fed show that the probability of another increase in Fed rates this year is about 47% (against 41% last week).
Rising rates usually support the dollar, making it more attractive to investors. Higher interest rates also lead to the sale of precious metals, which do not bring interest income. At the same time, the costs of their acquisition and storage are growing.
President of the Fed-New York William Dudley said on Monday that he was "very confident" of "long-term" economic growth in the US, which is the third longest in the history of the United States. American stock markets are growing steadily. The weakening of the hype surrounding US President Trump, the stabilization of the political situation in the Eurozone after the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, also contribute to reducing political risks and prices for precious metals.
Nevertheless, further strengthening of the dollar clearly lacks an additional positive momentum.
Some weaker than expected macro data from the US, some people question the Fed's determination to further tighten the monetary policy in the US. Perhaps, the statements of a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve scheduled for this week will once again give confidence to investors who are betting on the growth of the dollar.
For example, on Tuesday, scheduled speeches by the president of the Fed-Boston Eric Rosengren, executive director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer. On Friday, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and FRS President St. Louis James Bullard will deliver a speech.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Meanwhile, the price of silver has been steadily declining for the past two weeks. Today, with the opening of the trading day, the price of silver is growing, however, the negative trend continues. The pair XAG / USD broke through the important support levels of 17.33 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart), 17.10 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 16.88 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% of corrective growth to the pair decline since August 2016 and level of 20.60) and Continues to decline in the descending channels on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts with immediate targets near the levels of 16.15, 15.73 (low in 2016)
The lower boundary of the channels passes below the level of 15.73 (the minimums of 2016). This mark and will be the goal in case of further strengthening of the dollar in the foreign exchange market and the decline of the pair XAG / USD for the next 3-4 weeks.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 1-hour, 4-hour charts went to the buyers side, signaling a possible short-term upward correction with targets near the level of 16.88.
More distant goals in the case of the resumption of the growth of the pair XAG / USD - the levels of 17.33 (May highs), 17.59 (Fibonacci level 38.2%). Here, the top line of the descending channel passes on the 4-hour, daily and weekly charts.
More distant medium-term goals in the case of further growth of the XAG / USD pair - the levels of 18.18 (Fibonacci 50% and EMA200 on the weekly chart and April highs), 18.76 (Fibonacci level 61.8%).
So far, negative dynamics prevails. Support levels: 16.30, 16.15, 15.73
Resistance levels: 16.88, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.18, 18.76

Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 16.45. Stop-Loss 16.70. Take-Profit 16.25, 16.15, 15.73
Buy Stop 16.70. Stop-Loss 16.45. Take-Profit 17.00, 17.10, 17.33, 17.59, 18.17, 18.48, 18.76



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Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:47 am

GBP/USD: it's too early to think about raising rates
21/06/2017

Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 0.25%; however, it surprised the market participants. Three of the eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to tighten monetary policy, citing signs of accelerating inflation in the UK. This information caused a sharp reaction of the markets. The GBP / USD pair strengthened in the moment by 100 points, however, subsequently the pound declined; The Bank of England did not take any measures in either direction.
Nevertheless, the pound continues to remain under pressure in the foreign exchange market amid political uncertainty. Conservatives failed to achieve an absolute majority in the British parliament, and talks between British Prime Minister Therese May on the formation of a coalition with the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist party have reached a deadlock. After the June 8 elections, the pair GBP / USD fell by about 350 points. And the pressure on the pair seems to be mounting.
Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that it is still too early to think about raising rates in the UK, which further lowered the expectations of British currency buyers for its growth.
As shown by the data published last week, real wages in May decreased by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. The incomes of the country's population are declining because of inflation. Consumer spending is one of the important components of GDP growth in the UK, and their decline adversely affects the growth of the British economy.
Today (at 10:30 GMT) the Queen of Great Britain is expected to speak, at 11:00 - Andrew Haldane, Executive Director for Monetary and Credit Analysis and Statistics of the Bank of England, as well as a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and on Friday (18:00 GMT) - member of the Committee for Monetary Policy of the Bank of England Christine Forbes.
It is likely that key representatives of the Bank of England will also express their opinion in the spirit of their boss Mark Carney about the prematureness of raising rates in the UK, which will further weaken the position of the pound.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia website at tifia.com/analytics

Support and resistance levels
After the parliamentary elections in Great Britain on June 8, the GBP / USD pair broke through the important support levels of 1.2800 (EMA200 on day and 4-hour charts), 1.2715 (EMA144 and the bottom line of the rising channel on the daily chart) and develops a downward trend.
Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts went to the side of sellers.
The pound continues to remain under pressure amid uncertainty around Brexit.
In case of breakdown of the support level 1.2430 (the lower limit of the uplink on the weekly chart), the GBP / USD pair will go to the support levels of 1.2370, 1.2110, 1.2000 (the minimums of the global wave of the GBP / USD decline, which began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).
Negative dynamics in the pair GBP / USD prevails.
The alternative scenario implies the return of the GBP / USD pair above the level of 1.2800 with the prospect of further growth within the upward channel on the daily chart with targets of 1.3050 (annual highs), 1.3210 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement correction from 1.7200 level), 1.3300 (upper Border of the rising channel on the daily chart).
Support levels: 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2370, 1.2340, 1.2110
Resistance levels: 1.2640, 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2580. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2550, 1.2485, 1.2340, 1.2110
Buy Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2580. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3210, 1.3300

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