Forex Forum to Share, Discuss, Communicate and Trade Forex

Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Discuss Technical Analysis for various currency pairs and share your views. You may also like to check our Forex technical analysis and Forex forecast sections.
Image

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:50 am

USD/JPY: The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged
23/01/2018
Current dynamics

As expected, the Bank of Japan left all three monetary policy goals unchanged during today's meeting. The report of the Bank of Japan said that expectations about the pace of economic growth and inflation remained the same, while in December the bank said that they are "in the phase of weakening". In the course of his speech, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda stated that "we have not yet reached the point at which we should discuss the exit from monetary stimulus". The Japanese stock index Nikkei added 1.3% and for the first time since November 1991 closed above 24000 points, even despite the strengthening of the yen.
During the European session, the pair USD / JPY continued to decline. The dollar has only briefly received a breather by resolving a potential crisis with funding from the US government. As it became known, yesterday the Senators approved the bill on provisional financing of the government until February 8. Nevertheless, the restrained-negative attitude to the dollar on the part of investors remains, which is facilitated both by the internal political tensions in the US and by the expectations of a faster growth of the economy outside the United States, especially in countries with the world's largest economies.
At the beginning of today's European session, the DXY dollar index is near the 90.25 mark, while last week DXY reached a multi-month low near the 90.15 mark.
For today, important news on the US is not planned for publication. At 23:50 (GMT), the Ministry of Finance of Japan will publish a report with data on imports and exports, as well as the overall trade balance for December. The trade balance surplus and exports (+ 10%) of Japan are expected to increase, which will positively affect both the yen and the Japanese stock market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 110.15, 109.50, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance levels: 111.10, 111.85, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 111.30. Stop Loss 110.40. Take-Profit 111.85, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40
Sell Stop 110.40. Stop Loss 111.30. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:14 pm

GBP/USD: Dollar expects further weakening
24/01/2018
Current dynamics

On Wednesday, the US dollar continued to decline. Concerns about US protectionist trade policies have come to the fore once after US President Trump threatened trade barriers to Chinese goods. After that, the media reported that China intends to start getting rid of US government bonds, which led to a sharp short-term drop in the dollar. So far, the US has not imposed additional duties on imports from China. Nevertheless, on Monday, the administration of the US president announced the introduction of duties on the import of cheap solar batteries and washing machines that are produced in other countries in Asia. And this, according to the American leadership, is only the first such step in the sphere of trade.
The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds is growing, rising to a 3-year high of 2.63%. However, this does not support the dollar, which is actively falling against the basket of other major currencies. So, during today's European session, the dollar index DXY reached a new multi-month low near the 89.50 mark, falling below the key level of 90.00.
It is likely that in the next few months we should wait for the continuation in the US of the policy of trade restrictions on imported goods, including from China. This should lead, theoretically, to reciprocal measures on the part of the PRC. The escalation of tensions between the US and Asian countries, primarily with China, against the backdrop of the protectionist trade policy of the White House will lead to an even weaker dollar. Moreover, a cheaper dollar is beneficial to the US economy. A strong national currency has a negative impact on the US economy, making US exports less affordable for overseas buyers. Trump has repeatedly stated that the US foreign trade deficit has reached an impressive $ 500 billion precisely for this reason.
On Monday, economists at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported that, according to their calculations, the US dollar is still overvalued by about 10%, despite the fact that last year the dollar has already decreased by 7% against a basket of 16 currencies tracked by Wall Street Journal. Thus, we should expect further weakening of the dollar.
Of the news for today, it is worth paying attention to the publication at 14:45 (GMT) of business activity indexes (PMI) in the services sector and manufacturing sector in the US for January. The publication of indicators with strong values is expected. If they exceed their expectations, the dollar may strengthen for a moment.
From the fundamental point of view, we should expect further weakening of the dollar.
Meanwhile, at 09:30 (GMT), data from the British labor market was published, indicating that the unemployment rate in November was 4.3%, which is the minimum for the past 40 years. The number of new jobs also reached a record high, while the number of unemployed fell to a minimum in more than 15 years. Such data was cited by the National Statistics Office of Great Britain.
However, higher demand for labor did not lead to an acceleration in the growth of wages of the British. The worsening of the financial situation of consumers after the referendum on Brexit, apparently, continues.
Nevertheless, the pound reacted with growth on the data presented. The GBP / USD pair updated the annual and multi-month high near the 1.4115 mark. For the last time at this point, the pair GBP / USD was at the end of June 2016, on the eve of the referendum on Brexit.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Levels of resistance: 1.4100, 1.4180, 1.4250

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4070. Stop-Loss 1.4135. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Buy Stop 1.4135. Stop-Loss 1.4070. Take-Profit 1.4180, 1.4250
Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:18 am

EUR/USD: what will Mario Draghi now say?
25/01/2018
Current dynamics

Unconditional center of attention of traders today is the meeting devoted to the issues of monetary policy and the ECB press conference. The probability that the ECB's current basic interest rates will remain at the same level (the key rate is 0%, the deposit rate is -0.4%), and the volume of purchases of European assets is at the level of 30 billion euros per month, close to 100 %.
Meanwhile, the dollar continues to scale down. This week, the dollar received additional impetus to the fall from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which said that the US dollar, according to their calculations, is still overvalued by about 10%, from the administration of the US president who signed decrees on limiting the import of cheap Asian goods,
as well as from the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that "a weaker dollar has a positive effect on trade".
Over the past 3 weeks, the dollar index DXY fell 3.3% to 88.8 points, to a three-year low (from December 2014). The euro strengthened over these three weeks to the dollar at the same 3.3% (the euro's share in the basket of the DXY index is about 58%).
Undoubtedly, the Eurodollar has grown in recent months not only due to the weakening of the dollar, but also due to the growth of the economy of the Eurozone, which is ahead of the growth rate of the American economy.
However, a strong euro is also not needed by the European economy, as a strong dollar - to the US economy. This, in full measure, refers to other major world economies. It is not excluded that after the strengthening of national currencies to the dollar, the world's central banks will undertake retaliatory actions.
Investors today will closely monitor what Mario Draghi will say about the strengthened euro and the prospects of the QE program in the Eurozone. Given the current strengthening of the euro against the dollar, Mario Draghi is unlikely to talk about curtailing the stimulus program for the European economy and will try to cool the zeal of euro buyers.
If "Eurobulls" will be disappointed with Draghi's speech, then the EUR / USD pair may be corrected. Nevertheless, in the medium term, the pair EUR / USD should continue to grow.
Investors will still try to understand today how much the ECB's attitude towards the strengthening of the Eurodollar will be tolerated. In any case, in the period from 12:45 (GMT), when the ECB's decision on the rates will be published, until 13:30, when the ECB press conference begins, a surge in volatility in financial markets is expected.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD keeps positive dynamics, has been trading in the zone of multi-month highs, above the important support levels of 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), 1.2200 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014).
The pair EUR / USD broke yesterday the upper border of the rising channel on the daily chart and continues to trade in the upward channel on the weekly chart, which indicates a strong upward impulse. The target of further growth is resistance levels 1.2600 (Fibonacci level 61.8%), 1.2650 (the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart and the line of the convergent triangle on the monthly chart).
The target of the downward correction in case of breakdown of the support level 1.2360 will be support levels of 1.2200, 1.2060 (highs of 2017), 1.2000 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the bottom line of the upward channel on the daily chart).
Nevertheless, long positions are still preferable. Only in case of breakdown of key support levels 1.1680 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 1.1650 (EMA200 on the daily chart) we can speak about the reversal of the bullish trend of the EUR / USD.
Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1650
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2650

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2460. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680, 1.1650
Buy Stop 1.2460. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2600, 1.2650
Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:48 am

S&P500: US stock indexes are still growing
26/01/2018
Current dynamics

During the US trading session on Thursday, US President Trump, in an interview with CNBC at the International Economic Forum in Davos, said that "the dollar will become stronger and stronger, and I want to see a strong dollar after all". This statement by Trump goes against his last year's statements about the usefulness of a cheap dollar for the more successful promotion of American goods to the foreign market. This, in particular, and the US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said on Wednesday. In his opinion, "a weaker dollar has a positive effect on trade".
After yesterday's statement by Trump, the dollar jumped sharply in price, and the EUR / USD pair decreased by 120 points in a moment. Nevertheless, during the Asian session on Friday, the pressure on the dollar resumed, and its decline continued with renewed vigor.
The dollar index of the Wall Street Journal, which tracks the rate of the US currency against the basket of 16 other major currencies, fell 0.5% at the beginning of the session on Friday. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index DXY fell by 3.3% to 88.3 points, to a three-year low (from December 2014). At the beginning of the European session DXY is near the mark of 88.70.
According to market participants, the large-scale decline in the dollar will continue. The reasons for the reversal of its bearish trend so far there.
At the same time, the US stock market continues to grow. This is facilitated by both a weak dollar and positive corporate reporting by US companies.
Rally on the US stock market continues. On Friday, the main US indices reached new record highs, having successfully started in 2018.
Investors also continue to assess the impact of the recently adopted tax bill on the US economy.
Traders are preparing for the performance of Trump in Davos, which will be held today at 13:00 (GMT).
Market participants are also waiting for preliminary data on US GDP for the 4th quarter. According to the forecast of economists, GDP growth in the 4th quarter was 2.9% - 3.0% per annum. This will be another high indicator. Data on US GDP will be published at 13:30 (GMT).
Strong growth in the US economy will be another factor in favor of further growth of US stock indices.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2800.0, 2740.0, 2680.0, 2610.0, 2550.0
Resistance levels: 2850.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2795.0. Stop-Loss 2855.0. Objectives 2740.0, 2680.0, 2610.0, 2550.0
Buy Stop 2855.0 Stop-Loss 2795.0. Objectives 2900.0
Image
Image

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:35 am

EUR/USD: there is an eventful week
29/01/2018
Current dynamics

On Monday, the dollar makes an attempt to adjust after a long day's fall. The dollar index DXY recovered to the beginning of the European session, halving the Friday's decline and reaching the level of 89.10. On Friday, the dollar closed with a decline for the seventh week in a row, and this was the longest period of decline since 2010.
The index of the dollar WSJ, reflecting the value of the dollar against the basket of 16 other currencies, also rose by 0.2% on Monday, recovering slightly after falling to new 3-year lows last week.
The large-scale decline in the dollar last week was facilitated by the decision of the White House administration to impose restrictions on the importation of a number of goods produced in Asian countries in the US, as well as the statement of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin that "the weakening of the dollar is favorable for trade". Despite the current correction, the dollar remains vulnerable. The negative attitude of investors towards the dollar is preserved, and its bearish trend remains predominant.
A series of important economic news are expected to come out this week, beginning with the Fed meeting, ending with the publication on Friday of data from the US labor market for January. In view of this, volatility in the financial markets will continue to be increased.
With regard to the Eurozone, it is worthwhile to pay attention to the publication on Tuesday of preliminary data on Eurozone and France GDP for the 4th quarter (10:00 GMT) and consumer price inflation data in Germany for January (13:00 GMT). On Wednesday (10:00 GMT) report on inflation in the Eurozone for January, as well as data on employment in the Eurozone and Germany (09:00 GMT) for January, will be published. On Thursday, the PMI is expected for the manufacturing sector in Italy, France, Germany (08:45, 08:50, 08:55 (GMT), respectively), Euro zone (09:00) from Markit. Data on consumer inflation in Italy and producer prices in the Eurozone will come out on Friday (10:00 GMT).
However, the focus of traders will be the publication on Friday (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market in January. It is expected that the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 175,000, which is above the average for six months of 166,000 (the previous value was +148,000). Unemployment remained at 4.1% in January, hourly wages of Americans increased by 0.3%.
If the data is confirmed or will be better, it is worth waiting for the strengthening of the dollar. How much the dollar will be strengthened will depend on data from the US labor market and comments from the Fed's leaders on the future plans of the US Central Bank regarding its monetary policy. The publication of comments by the Federal Reserve on monetary policy is scheduled for 19:00 (GMT) on Wednesday, along with the publication of the Fed's decision on rates.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels
Last week, the EUR / USD reached another multi-month high near the 1.2535 mark, continuing to move in the upward channels on the daily and weekly charts, and trying to gain a foothold in the zone above the important level of 1.2330 (EMA200 on the monthly chart).
The closest targets in the case of continued growth in EUR / USD are resistance levels 1.2600 (Fibonacci level 61.8% of correction to the fall from 1.3900, which began in May 2014), 1.2650 (the upper line of the rising channel on the weekly chart and the top line of the convergent triangle on the monthly graphics). In case of breakdown of the level of 1.2650, the agenda will raise the question of the ECB's further plans for monetary policy and how much the ECB will tolerate against a strong euro. From a technical point of view, the next medium-term target is the resistance level 1.3900 (Fibonacci level of 100%, ie the beginning of the last wave of EUR / USD decline in May 2014).
There is a strong upward momentum and a bullish trend. Long positions are preferred.
Support levels: 1.2400, 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680
Resistance levels: 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2440. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680
Buy Stop 1.2440. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650
Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:51 am

EUR/USD: it is not easy to deploy the strong bearish trend of the dollar
30/01/2018
Current dynamics

After the growth during the Asian session on Tuesday, the dollar again began to decline at the beginning of the European session. As the data published at 10:00 GMT by Eurostat showed, the Eurozone GDP growth in 2017 was the fastest in the last 10 years (+ 2.5% vs. + 1.8% in 2016).
The index of consumer confidence in the Eurozone in January rose to 1.3 against 0.5 in December. The index of business optimism in the industry of the Eurozone in January 8.8, in the service sector 16.7 against 18.0 in December. The Eurozone economy demonstrates excellent growth rates, and the high level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone also indicates economic growth and strengthens the euro.
At the beginning of the European session, data on France's GDP were published, and according to the French national statistics agency Insee data, the GDP of the second largest economy of the Eurozone in 2017 grew by 1.9% compared to the previous year. The growth rate of the French economy accelerated sharply in 2017. The GDP of France has shown the most significant increase since 2011. The improvement of the economic situation in France was promoted by the policy of the European Central Bank aimed at stimulating the country's economy, as well as increasing consumer confidence caused by the election of Emmanuel Macron as French president. Macron spoke during his election campaign for France's further membership in the European Union and the strengthening of economic rapprochement with Germany. His convincing victory speaks of the centripetal sentiment of French citizens towards the European Union. Companies and investors have favorably taken steps to reduce taxes and eliminate bureaucratic obstacles. The revival of the French economy contributed to the growth of the economy of the entire monetary block to the highest level since 2007.
On the day when the results of the second round of elections in France became known, where the pro-European politician Macron won the victory, the euro rose sharply. This day (May 7) can rightfully be considered the starting point for the confident growth of the euro and the EUR / USD in the second half of 2017.
The data published today confirm the fact that the European economy is growing at a faster rate than the US economy.
This once again can remind investors that other major world economies outside the US are expected to grow faster, which may contribute to a more aggressive monetary policy of world central banks. All this together can contribute to the accelerated strengthening of national currencies against the dollar.
Meanwhile, the recent contradictory statements by officials and the actions of US authorities, including US President Trump, only exacerbate the negative attitude of investors towards the dollar.
So, last Thursday, after the statement of US President Donald Trump that the US currency should be "strong", the dollar grew. A day earlier, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said the opposite, dropping the dollar to a new three-year low.
During the economic forum in Davos, Trump again threatened to take action against trading partners. This time he hinted at a possible response to the "very unfair" EU trade policy against the United States. "I have a lot of problems with the EU," Trump said in an interview with the British media. Earlier, Trump had repeatedly said that multilateral trade agreements discriminated against the US. He threatened to take action. All this causes concern of investors in connection with the probability of imposing restrictions on trade and unleashing the world trade war. In January, the administration of the White House has already imposed such restrictions on the importation into the United States of a number of goods produced in Asian countries.
This week, the focus of traders will be the Fed meeting and the publication on Friday of data from the US labor market. On Wednesday (19:00 GMT) the Fed will publish decision on monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.5%. Monthly data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture, the unemployment rate and hourly pay for Americans will be published on Friday at 13:30 (GMT). Strong data are expected. Nevertheless, they are unlikely to be enough to deploy a strong bearish trend of the dollar.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.2360, 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680
Resistance levels: 1.2430, 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2350. Stop-Loss 1.2440. Take-Profit 1.2330, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1900, 1.1855, 1.1790, 1.1735, 1.1680
Buy Stop 1.2440. Stop-Loss 1.2350. Take-Profit 1.2500, 1.2535, 1.2600, 1.2650

Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:11 pm

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan policy will remain soft
31/01/2018
Current dynamics

Dollar index DXY rose on Tuesday to 89.45, however, at the beginning of today's European session again decreases, approaching the level of 88.80. The value of US bonds continued to decline. The yield on 10-year bonds rose on Tuesday to 2.725% (the highest level in almost four years) from 2.695% on Monday. Nevertheless, this did not help the dollar and did not allow it to consolidate the upward correction, which turned out to be very short-term.
And today, against the background of the declining yield of 10-year US bonds, the dollar is becoming cheaper again. Market participants are preparing for the main event of today - publication of the Fed decision on rates (19:00 GMT). It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.5%. Nevertheless, volatility may increase if market participants find something new in the texts of comments by the Fed regarding further plans to tighten monetary policy. In the dollar quotations, there are already 2 increases in interest rates this year. The Fed outlined three increases. More bold predictions suggest 4 increases in the rate, i.е. quarterly. The bearish trend of the dollar at the moment may be break, perhaps, just by such a scenario.
The dollar is falling, as investors expect faster economic growth rates outside the US, which will contribute to a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the world's largest central banks. This, in turn, will lead to the growth of national currencies against the dollar.
It is noteworthy that the dollar continues to fall even today against the yen after the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda confirmed during today's Asian session that the Japanese central bank will continue to pursue a soft monetary policy in order to further accelerate inflation. "We are striving to achieve the target inflation rate of 2% as soon as possible, and this is facilitated by the further implementation of monetary easing", Kuroda said in a speech at the country's parliamentary committee. Thus, he tried to cool down the recent assumptions about tightening the policy. Talks about a possible increase in rates in Japan later this year contributed to the strengthening of the yen recently. "... There is a long way to go to achieve the target inflation rate of 2% ...", said one of the board members at the meeting held on January 22-23, when the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-soft monetary policy unchanged, and also kept its forecasts on inflation and GDP growth unchanged. The central bank still expects to achieve an inflation rate of 2% only by March 2020.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 108.30, 108.00, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 106.00
Resistance levels: 109.45, 110.15, 111.00, 111.60, 112.70, 113.10, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00

Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 109.30. Stop Loss 108.50. Take-Profit 109.45, 110.15, 111.00, 111.60
Sell Stop 108.50. Stop Loss 109.30. Take-Profit 108.30, 108.00, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 106.00
Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:02 pm

GBP/USD: amid rising price pressure
01/02/2018
Current dynamics

As the research company IHS Markit Ltd. reported today, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector in January was 55.3 against 56.2 in December and the forecast of 56.5. Although the index values above 50 indicate activity in the manufacturing sector, the data suggest that growth in activity slowed to a 6-month low against the backdrop of rising price pressures on companies and consumers.
In January, the index became minimal since June, as the shortage of raw materials and rising prices on it against the background of the accelerated inflation in the UK after the referendum on Brexit negatively affected the release of finished products, and the costs again grew. Procurement prices grew at the fastest pace in 11 months. Brexit remains the main theme that affects the pound at the moment. At the same time, company IHS Markit Ltd., which calculates the index, reported that the index remains "well above the long-term average of 51.7" and still indicates the growth of new export orders.
The pound declined slightly after the publication of the PMI index. The positive dynamics of the pound was supported, in particular, by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who in his speech in the upper house of the British parliament earlier this week said that he sees signs of accelerating the growth of wages in the UK due to higher demand for labor. "The demand for labor in the UK is growing, the pace of wage increases is accelerating", in his opinion, while "real income growth this year will resume." "Real incomes (households) this year may return to growth," added Carney. In his view, Brexit will have an impact on inflation rates for several more years, although the effect of the collapse of the British currency has already basically passed. Meanwhile, the pound remains stable against the dollar, which is growing today against the yen and commodity currencies, despite the fact that commodity and oil prices, again, have pushed up.
The dollar slightly reacted to the results of Wednesday's two-day Fed meeting, in which the Fed's interest rates were left unchanged in the range of 1.25% - 1.50%. The statement of the Fed was, on the whole, positive. The central bank signaled the strengthening of confidence in the optimistic outlook for the economy. Heads of the Fed expressed their hope that inflation will grow in 2018. "The level of employment, household expenses and companies' investments were marked by a significant growth, while the unemployment rate remained low", the Federal Reserve said in a statement.
Investors have already pawned in prices a 2-time rate increase this year. If the Fed will raise rates at a faster pace, then the dollar can break the already established multi-month negative trend. In a statement published on Wednesday the Fed has a hint that this year rates can be raised more than three times.
We are waiting for data from the USA today. In the period from 13:30 to 15:00 (GMT), data will be published on the number of initial jobless claims for the last week, labor productivity for the fourth quarter (preliminary release), PMI in the manufacturing sector of the US economy and gradual acceleration of inflation.
The dollar may continue its corrective growth if the data prove to be better than the forecast, while the GBP / USD will turn south, for now - in the short term while.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 1.4200, 1.4180, 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.4250, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4160. Stop-Loss 1.4290. Take-Profit 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Buy Stop 1.4290. Stop-Loss 1.4160. Take-Profit 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:26 am

S&P500: investors are nervous, US stock indices are falling
02/02/2018
Current dynamics

After the Fed meeting this week, investors are preparing to publishing data from the US labor market for January. Publication of data is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT). Strong data are expected. Thus, unemployment, according to economists, in January remained at the level of 4.1%.
This is the lowest value in 17 years. Moreover, many economists expect that during 2018, unemployment in the US may fall below 4%. This has not been observed since 2000.
A strong US labor market is becoming the most important factor in the growth of the US economy.
According to the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week from 21 to 27 January fell by 1,000 and amounted to 230,000 (last year it was projected 238,000 and 231,000 applications). In January, the number of applications reached the lowest level in almost 45 years. The number of applications below the level of 300,000 has been observed for almost three years. This is the longest series since the 1970s.
Low unemployment indicates an increase in demand for labor resources for US companies, which in turn will contribute to higher wages for employees. And this will lead to an increase in consumer spending, GDP and inflation, which the Fed was so eager for.
Other articles of the report of the US Department of Labor are also expected with high efficiency. So,
hourly wages of Americans increased by 0.3% (+ 2.6% in annual terms), and the number of jobs outside of agriculture in January increased by 180 thousand (previous value is +148 thousand), which is above the average for six months 166,000.
The dollar is growing with the opening of today's trading day. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value relative to the basket of 6 other currencies, also grows after its fall to a level of multi-month lows near the mark of 88.25. At the beginning of the European session on Friday, DXY has already risen to the level of 88.70.
It seems that investors are serious about the growth of the dollar after a strong report from the US labor market. Well, in just a few hours details of the report of the US Department of Labor for January will be known. If the data really turn out to be strong, then the dollar will continue to grow, but, according to many market participants, it will continue to be limited.
Meanwhile, US and world stock markets are declining before the publication of the monthly US labor market report and after the publication of disappointing corporate reports and the sale of government bonds. Stoxx Europe 600 in the early trading lost 0.6% after the decline in the Japanese market.
Despite the fact that US indices remain at a record level, investors are beginning to get nervous against the backdrop of the growing yield of US government bonds, which reached multi-year highs. Thus, the yield on 10-year US bonds rose to 2.796% from 2.792% on Thursday and 2.712% on Wednesday (the highest level in almost four years).
Participants in the stock markets are beginning to understand that the yield of government bonds is growing, which makes the Fed easier to raise interest rates, which is a negative factor for the stock market.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics

Support levels: 2800.0, 2766.0, 2740.0, 2670.0, 2630.0, 2560.0
Resistance levels: 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2790.0. Stop-Loss 2835.0. Objectives 2766.0, 2740.0, 2670.0, 2630.0, 2560.0
Buy Stop 2835.0 Stop-Loss 2790.0. Objectives 2877.0, 2900.0
Image
Image

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

Re: Tifia Daily Market Analytics

Postby TifiaFX » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:06 pm

GBP/USD: on the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England
05/02/2018
Current dynamics


After the publication today (09:30 GMT) of data indicating that the growth of activity in the service sector of the UK in January slowed to a 16-month low, the pound declined. The index of supply managers (PMI) for the services sector of the UK economy fell in January to 53.0 from 54.2 in December (the forecast was 54.3). The data on the service sector was preceded by disappointing statistics on activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors, published the previous week. As the research company IHS Markit Ltd. reported last week, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector in January was 55.3 against 56.2 in December and the forecast of 56.5. The data presented indicate that the growth in activity in the manufacturing sector also slowed to a 6-month low against the backdrop of rising price pressures on companies and consumers.
The slowdown in activity growth in all important sectors of the economy signals to the Bank of England about the need for continued soft monetary policy.
The nearest meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to interest rates, will be held on Thursday. The decision on the interest rate of the Bank of England will be published at 12:00 (GMT). Market participants take into account the 50% probability of increasing the Bank of England's key interest rate in the first half of the year and 2-3 increases by 0.25% each time for three years.
Nevertheless, the Bank of England can maintain the current soft monetary policy, given the slowdown in the most important sectors of the British economy, despite the sharp increase in inflation after the referendum on Brexit.
Meanwhile, the dollar holds the positions gained on Friday in the foreign exchange market after the strong US labor market data for January, published on Friday, strengthened expectations that inflation growth could lead to a more rapid tightening of monetary policy in the US.
The growth of hourly earnings in the private sector in January in the annual comparison was the highest since June 2009 and amounted to 2.9% (in annual terms). At the same time, unemployment in the US in January remained at the same level of 4.1%, and the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy was 200,000 in January (the forecast was +180,000).
At the meeting of the Fed held in late January, its leaders expressed their hope that inflation will grow in 2018. "The level of employment, household expenses and companies' investments were marked by a significant growth, while the unemployment rate remained low", the Federal Reserve said in a statement.
Thus, if the Bank of England signals about the need to continue to maintain a soft monetary policy, the pound may weaken, and the GBP / USD pair is in danger of breaking the bullish trend that began in January 2017.
From how aggressive the statements of the members of the Committee on Monetary Policy of the Bank of England will be, the dynamics of the pound will depend after the meeting of the Bank of England.
*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Resistance levels: 1.4123, 1.4270, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575

Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.4070. Stop-Loss 1.4160. Take-Profit 1.4050, 1.4000, 1.3970, 1.3800, 1.3700, 1.3630, 1.3550, 1.3420, 1.3300, 1.3210
Buy Stop 1.4160. Stop-Loss 1.4070. Take-Profit 1.4200, 1.4270, 1.4340, 1.4400, 1.4500, 1.4575
Image

Image
*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com
USE ADVANTAGES OF SOCIAL TRADING WITH TIFIA
User avatar
TifiaFX
 
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:37 pm

PreviousNext

Return to 2+1 = 3 - Technical Analysis Discussions

 

Who is online on Forum

Registered users: Baidu [Spider], Bing [Bot], Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Jan Schoemaker, John Harry