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Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:13 am

Daily Report on August 30, 2016

Asian stocks gained on Tuesday following the advance in U.S stocks overnight, with all three U.S equity benchmarks closing higher overnight. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones ended yesterday’s session up 0.58 percent to 18,502.00, the S&P 500 rose 0.52 percent to finish at 2,180.28 while the Nasdaq added 0.26 percent to 5,232.33, as bullish sentiment was fueled by evidence that the world’s largest economy is growing.

Reports from the Commerce Department released on Monday reported that U.S consumer spending rose for a fourth straight month in July at the pace of 0.3%, based on strong demand for long-lasting manufactured goods such as automobiles, and rising household income. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, inched up 0.1% in July, maintaining the same pace as in June.

As a result, the core PCE – the Fed's favorite barometer for inflation - increased 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, remaining below the fed's target of 2 percent. To fully assess the outlook for the U.S monetary policy, investors are now shifting their attention to the monthly jobs data on Friday, which is forecast to report that 180,000 more jobs were added in July.

Crude prices continued to trade in a thin range as a stronger U.S dollar and focus on surging output from the Middle East weighed down the speculation over an output cap deal next month, even after data from energy monitoring service Genscape reported a drawdown of 287,444 barrels at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for U.S. crude futures during last week.



Technicals

NZDUSD
NZDUSD is trading in an upward trending price range with higher highs and higher lows. The pair has just pulled back from the lower boundary of the trading channel, at the one-week low of 0.72080. However the market keeps attempting a test of this support. The %K line reversed into a downward movement after surging close to the overbought zone and is likely to cross over the %D line from above. With the two MAs converging above the price action, the pair is expected to retreat further, but the support at 0.72080 should be broken through ideally before a short position is attempted.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.72270, Take profit at 0.71880, Stop loss at 0.72640



GBPUSD
GBPUSD fell back into the downward sloping range after failing to reach the 1.33000 psychological level. The MA20 has penetrated the MA50 from above, consolidating the down move following a brief correction. With the divergence between the +DI line and –DI line and the low reading on the RSI, GBPUSD is much likely to dip further.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.30587, Take profit at 1.30000, Stop loss at 1.31200.



EURAUD
After a period of moving sideways around the 23.6% retracement at 0.47741, the pair has fallen below both this level as well as the 50-period moving average, which suggests further down moves. As can be seen from the RSI chart, the index has slid to 42.84. The bear is dominating the market and the currency pair is forecast to head downwards to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.47440, Take profit at 1.47035, Stop loss at 1.47750.



COPPER
Copper is trading indecisively in a narrow range after a sharp selloff last week. The commodity is retreating from the MA20 and the resistance at 2.0904, and is anticipated to gather more bearish momentum as the –DI and +DI are converging, not to mention the RSI index is witnessing higher highs and higher lows but continues to stay below 50 and is pointing lower.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2.0745, Take profit at 2.0615, Stop loss at 2.0905



WTI
U.S crude prices are experiencing a period of consolidation. Both sides are taking cautious steps which can be seen in the short bodies of recent candles. Buyers are failing to get the price action through the MA20, while sellers are not able to break through the support at the 61.8% retracement level at 46.87. The commodity is likely to drift slightly lower until updated fundamental factors provide direction later in U.S session.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 46.88, Take profit at 46.40, Stop loss at 47.21



EURO50
The Euro Stoxx 50 index retains its bullish momentum and is flying higher within the upward trending range. The index has crossed over the moving average price levels, but has still been locked within the range marked by the support at 2977.50 and the resistance at 3015.00. The RSI index has soared above the 50 line, and is supporting a breakout above the 3015.00 level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3015.00, Take profit at 3030.20, Stop loss at 3001.50

Sell Stop at 6778.00, Take profit at 6735.70, Stop loss at 6813.80.

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FTSE100 signal by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:46 pm

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Boosted By Banking Stocks, FTSE100 Index Pushes Higher After Holiday

FTSE100 index reopened after closing for holiday on Monday, and left a wide gap up following two weeks of declines.

Stocks from banking sector led gainers, with HSBC Holdings climbing 2.1%, Lloyd Banking Group PLCs adding 1.34%. Shares of Bunzl rallied 1.45% after the business supplies distributor reported an increase in revenue and operating margin in its first half of 2016. Meanwhile, building material firm CRH, which reported better-than-expected half-year results last week, extended gains by surging more 2.01%.

Mining companies are among worst performers with Rio Tinto dropping by 3.61%, Randgold Resources Ltd. dipping 3.78% and Glencore Plc falling more than 3 percent as commodities declined on the face of a strengthening dollar.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 6844.00, take profit at 6856.35, stop loss at 6835.70
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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USDZAR Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:49 pm

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Political Uncertainty Plaguing South Africa – Is There A Profitable Trade In The Rand’s Freefall?

The South African Rand had a wonderful first seven months this year when the currency strengthened more than 10 percent against the U.S dollar thanks to a diversified economy with expanding manufacturing, growing retail sales and improving business confidence. However, everything has changed since a bomb named “political uncertainty” exploded last week. The developing country is on the verge of falling into a recession as its Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan may be arrested, which has caused the national currency to slump more than 5% versus the dollar over the last few trading sessions.

Rumors of an arrest first emerged in local South African media back in May but Gordhan said allegations against him related to his time as head of South Africa’s tax agency are wholly unfounded and refused to appear in front of the police. Last week, the case became boiling hot following news that the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) had received a “docket” for charging Gordhan with crimes, although a decision to arrest him immediately has not been reached. According to the chief prosecutor, the evidence provided was only reviewed.

The problem for South Africa is that, if Gordhan is arrested, the country’s creditworthiness will be affected as he is seen as a minister with fiscal discipline, who has been fighting against the country being downgraded to junk status by credit rating agencies. According to market sources, political risks could see the country’s debt downgraded to junk this year, while the rand could slump as much as 30 percent against the dollar.

Coupled with the political turmoil caused by the Gordhan investigation, the U.S dollar, which is on the brink of a second interest rate increase after the December 2015 rate hike, is another factor heaping pressure onto the rand. Fed officials are considering tightening rates as soon as September and recent data is fueling this speculation further. Markets are paying attention to the monthly jobs data that is due on Friday, which is forecast to report that 180,000 more jobs were added in July.


The greenback has been on a sharp up move from the 10-month low at around 13.19330. The rally is so powerful that it took the pair to move past the 23.6% retracement easily, the level at which USDZAR has traded sideways and made a short term bottom at, on many occasions through this year. The currency pair is facing solid resistance at the upper trend line connecting through previous highs. Compared to previous failed attempts, the bull this time is stronger as it has been able to sustain the market within the overbought territory for a long time and has not yet shown any sign of a retreat. Thus, a breakout is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 14.50000, Take profit at 14.65000, Stop loss at 14.15300
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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GBP/USD signal by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:50 pm

FromGMT 15:50 30/08/2016
TillGMT 21:00 30/08/2016

Buy at 1.30600
Take profit at 1.31100
Stop loss at 1.30330
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Technical Analysis 31st August by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:33 am

Daily Report on August 31, 2016



Japanese stocks traded higher on Wednesday after sluggish domestic data and prospects of further easing by the Bank of Japan contributed to dragging down the Yen. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index added nearly 1.0% to jump to a two-week high at 16903.00, supported by comments from BOJ board member Yukitoshi Funo that the central bank would make full use of its existing policy tools to encourage spending and dislodge the “deflation mindset”.

According to data released earlier on Wednesday, Japanese industrial production was unchanged in July, defying forecasts calling for a 0.7% gain from June. Compared to July 2015, Japan’s industrial output declined 3.8%, underscoring the fragility in factory activity.

Meanwhile, upbeat U.S. data lifted the dollar overnight. Published by the Conference Board, the U.S Consumer Confidence Index for August stood at 101.1 - the highest level since September 2015. In an interview with Bloomberg last night, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher said that the country’s job market which is nearing full strength can withstand a tightening of rates while the pace of rate hikes will be based on upcoming economic data.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. crude stocks rose by 942,000 barrels to 525.2 million barrels in the week to Aug. 26, topping analysts' expectations for an increase of 921,000 barrels. Official U.S. oil inventories data published by the EIA, is due later today, and is expected to show an increase of 1.1 million barrels last week.



Technical

AUDNZD



Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD is on the last stages of a double-top pattern. The price surpassed the neck level at 1.04550 last week and fell deeper towards the major support at 1.04000, before pulling back to hit the 1.04550 handle. As we can see from the chart, this level has played an important part as a support zone previously, and is now returning as an important resistance at which the AUDNZD failed and was forced to reverse lower. The divergence between the +DI line and –DI line and a surging ADX index has helped the pair break through the 1.04000 level easily, and is expected to dampen the price lower.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.03750, Take profit at 1.03350, Stop loss at 1.04000



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF has pulled back from the solid resistance at 0.98420 after soaring more than 300 pips consistently, from the low at 0.95370. As a result of an overblown market where the bulls have been exhausted after a long period of time supporting prices higher, the U.S dollar is making some corrective moves. With the two MAs placed below the price action, the pair is expected to extend the rally.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.98520, Take profit at 0.98775, Stop loss at 0.98200



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been on the rise after breaking above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.28959. The market has once again entered overbought territory and reversed lower. Still, the directional strength index is pointing upwards, suggesting that the bull is prevailing in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.31000, Take profit at 1.31400, Stop loss at 1.30480



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has moved past the MA20 at 18.680 from below, but has kept floating under the MA50. The moving average has deterred every attempt by the market to break above this zone of resistance for the last two weeks. The silver market has been held inside bearish territory for some time now, which has helped push prices towards the 38.2% retracement level at 18.288.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 18.660, Take profit at 18.520, Stop loss at 18.775



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural gas has entered into a phase of consolidation recently, after dropping back to the 2.811 support level. The price has penetrated the MA20 from above but still has support from the 50-period moving average, which is in the same zone as the current prices. The RSI and The Stochastics are both pointing towards a bearish market. As a result, natural gas is forecast to plummet below the 2.811 threshold.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2.810, Take profit at 2.775, Stop loss at 2.853



Nasdaq100



Fig: NASDAQ100 H4 Technical Chart

The Nasdaq100 index is on the verge of falling through the recent price range between the resistance at 4835.00 and the support at 4766.00. A convergence between the two MAs has occurred above the price action, after prices broke through both MA's from above yesterday. The RSI and Stochastics are both below the average level. Further falls may be on the way.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4766.00, Take profit at 4748.25, Stop loss at 4783.10
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EUR/GBP signal by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:24 pm

EUR/GBP signal

From GMT 12:00 31/08/2016
TillGMT 21:00 31/08/2016
Sell 0.84750
Sell at 0.84750
Take profit at 0.84250
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EURUSD Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:45 pm

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Will The EURUSD Sustain Its Recent Gains? Key Technical Support Broken Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

The euro maintained downside bias on Wednesday, heading for a monthly loss against the U.S dollar amidst rising speculation over divergent monetary policies between the U.S Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Both central banks are scheduled to hold their next monetary policy meeting in September, where the Fed is expected to raise rates while the ECB is likely to introduce more stimulus measures.

Today has been a busy day for the Eurozone as a spate of economic data readings were published. Germany reported better than expected employment numbers, with the unemployment rate remaining steady in August at 6.1%, according to data from the German Federal Employment Agency. The result was not only in line with forecasts and but also marked a record low. The Unemployment Change figure also beat expectations by reporting a decline of 7,000, confirming a healthy labor market which is seemingly not affected by Brexit.

A low unemployment rate has helped encourage German spending, boosting retail sales by 1.7% in July compared to June, which is the largest jump since January 2014. However, other parts of the Eurozone do not seem to be as healthy economically. French consumer spending unexpectedly dropped by 0.2% in July, compared to June as households cut back on cars and home furnishing.

In other data EU data, the European Union’s statistics agency reported that Eurozone-wide consumer prices were 0.2% higher in August than during the same month a year earlier, but fell short of estimates of 0.3% price growth. The growth in the prices of services and manufactured goods could not offset the decline in energy prices. As a result, the measure of core consumer prices – which excludes volatile prices such as those for energy and food – grew by 0.8% in August – from the 0.9% rate of price growth in July.

Meanwhile, upbeat U.S. data is supporting the greenback to trade higher versus most of its peers. An earlier report from the ADP showed that the U.S private-sector added 177,000 jobs in August, virtually in line with estimates of about 180,000, from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Although the ADP data is not always an accurate gauge of the non-farm payrolls due on the first Friday of every month, investors still watch the report closely to get an advance indication on what to expect in the Labor Department’s employment report.

In other data of importance, The Conference Board published the the U.S Consumer Confidence Index for August yesterday. The index reading came in at 101.1 – the highest level since September 2015. In an interview with Bloomberg yesterday, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher said that the improvements in the labor market should help the economy withstand any headwinds caused by tightening of interest rates. Fisher also stressed that the pace of rate hikes will be based on upcoming economic data. Therefore, this Friday’s NFP is being considered a key factor in helping the market assess the possibility of a rate increase at the Fed’s late-September meeting.


EURUSD has been extending the slide since it hit serious resistance at the 23.6% retracement level at 1.13505. The solid support at the 38.2% level was broken easily yesterday after the pair had crossed over the MA20 at 1.12101 from above, indicating a strong bearish bias. RSI (14) is heading downwards from near the overbought zone while ADX (14) has also confirmed the downtrend by rising to as high as 32.16. A wide gap between the –DI and +DI lines is encouraging the pair to attempt a break below the psychological support at 1.11300.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.11300, take profit 1.10580, stop loss at 1.11900
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SP500 Down – Short Positions Suggested

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:27 pm

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Abundant Crude Stocks Drag SP500 Down – Short Positions Suggested

U.S. stocks retreated on Wednesday morning, extending the losses to a second consecutive day. At the time of writing, the S&P500 index fell 0.36%, weighed by the weakness in energy shares.

The energy sector was the worst performer among 10 sectors making up the index, dropping 1.61% following a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that indicated domestic crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 26. Economists had forecast the report to show an increase of only 1.1 million barrels.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2164.00, Take profit at 2158.00, Stop loss at 2169.00
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Technical Analysis 1st September by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:21 am

Daily Report on September 01, 2016

Asian stocks recovered from early losses on Thursday, as investors have been inspired by better than expected readings from Chinese manufacturing surveys. The slump in crude oil prices which had sapped Wall Street’s confidence overnight, is temporarily losing steam. Markets remained cautious ahead of Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls, which are being seen as a key deciding factor in being able to assess the possibility of the Fed hiking rates at its September meeting.

According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the country’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index for August unexpectedly rose last month to the highest in almost two years, after dropping below the 50 threshold in July. Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.4 last month while Non-manufacturing PMI stood at 53.5, remaining above 50 which indicates improving conditions.

The ADP Challenger Layoffs report on Wednesday showed that the U.S private-sector added 177,000 jobs in August, virtually in line with estimates of about 180,000, from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. But the dollar’s gains were deterred after the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago announced that its Business Barometer dropped to 51.5 points in August and failed to match expectations.

Crude prices climbed back after sliding on news from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that indicated domestic crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 26. Economists had forecast the report to show an increase of only 1.1 million barrels.

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing activity PMI is due later today, and is forecast to come out at 52.0 points.



Technicals

AUDCHF



Fig: AUDCHF H4 Technical Chart

AUDCHF is struggling below the resistance at 0.74240 on the one hand, but on the other hand, it is receiving support from the two moving averages placed below the price action. In the last two failed attempts, the rally was torn apart as the market reversed after hitting the overbought area. This time, the market has gradually built up momentum, taking a longer period of time to push prices back towards the 0.74240 level, indicating that the bulls are riding a steadier up-wave. The pair, therefore, is expected to break above this solid handle.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.74240, Take profit at 0.74500, Stop loss at 0.74000



EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP is moving in a triangle pattern and seemingly trying to break out of the triangle towards the downside, having gradually slid from the highs. The price has breached major support at 0.85000 but failed to fall further below the support trendline connecting the recent lows. As the market sentiment is still bearish, the pair is anticipated to extend its slide.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.84680, Take profit at 0.84265, Stop loss at 0.85000



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD remains in an upward trending price range with higher highs and higher lows. The pair could not break above the moving average yet again, and had to retreat back to the lower boundary of the trading range. However, as RSI is pointing upwards, the bull seems to be getting stronger and the market may attempt another break through the MA's to climb higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.72640, Take profit at 0.72900, Stop loss at 0.72400



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

The yellow metal continued to retreat and is plateauing around 1305.27. We haven’t seen any steep plunge since the slide started on August 18. Cautious sentiment has prevented gold from falling too far too fast, but bearish sentiment has continuously depressed the precious metal lower. That is the reason why the gold market has not fallen into the oversold area and still has room for further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1305.25, Take profit at 1300.00, Stop loss at 1308.95



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent bounced back from the 23.6% retracement after plummeting steeply yesterday. The sharp slump has pushed the commodity into the oversold territory, and we are witnessing a period of correction and consolidation. Brent prices are expected to break below the near term support at 46.72 as the two MAs placed above the price action are creating downward pressure on prices.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 46.72, Take profit at 45.70, Stop loss at 47.95



Dow Jones



Fig: Dow Jones H1 Technical Chart

Dow Jones created a wide up on the opening and crossed over the MA50 at 18441.21. The index is highly likely to form a double bottom as it is heading for a retest of the resistance at 18521.00, after falling to as low as 18330.05. The RSI index has surpassed the 50 line and is confirming the up-move

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18470.00, Take profit at 18521.00, Stop loss at 18435.18
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Long Positions Suggested on EURUSD

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:00 pm

U.S Manufacturing Gauge Swings Into Contraction – Long Positions Suggested on EURUSD


EURUSD skyrocketed to three-day high at above $1.12000, after a report from the Institute of Supply Management showed U.S. factory activity in August contracted for the first time since February. The drop in new orders and production dragged the index down by 3.2 percentage points to a reading of 49.4.

Disappointing manufacturing number is believed to weaken the case of a rate hike later this month. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool, there is only 24 percent chance of a hike in September, down from 30 percent before the ISM data was released, while the odds for a hike in December fell to 53.6 percent from 57.2 percent.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.12000, Take profit at 1.12440, Stop loss at 1.11720
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