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Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:53 pm

Unfazed By German Data, Euro Trades Higher – Some Buying Potential Remains

The Euro shrugged off early losses after the release of mixed data from the euro zone, to extend its gains to a third consecutive trading day on Friday. Bullish bias reigned in EURUSD as investors digested the outcome of the U.S Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

Euro-area Economic Growth Slides to A 20-month Low
Data from Markit reported that the euro-area economy’s growth rate slid to a 20-month low in September. The Markit monthly composite PMI remained above the 50 mark that indicates expansion, but inched down to 52.6 in September from 52.9 one month earlier. The service sector weakened to 52.1 – the lowest since December 2014. Meanwhile, manufacturing improved to 52.6 in the current month, beating expectations for a reading of 51.5.

The slowdown in the pace of growth within the EU service sector was largely due to fatigue in Germany, where the service sector delivered its worst performance since May 2013. Europe’s largest economy saw its composite PMI drop to a 16-month low at 52.7 this month, from 53.3 in August. The general number was dragged down by a decline to 50.6 in the country’s service sector.

On the contrary, France posted its strongest performance in 15 months, with the measures for both manufacturing and services improving. According to the Markit report, France’s composite PMI rose to 53.3 from 51.9 in August. In particular, the manufacturing sector index rose to 49.5 in September from 48.5 one month earlier. Likewise, the gauge for services rose to 54.1 – the best result since the start of 2015.

The Pace for Further Hikes Seems to be Decelerating
The Euro declined a little in the early European trading hours but soon regained ground as the U.S dollar has been under greater pressure. Althought a rate hike by the FED in December is quite possible, the pace for further hikes seems to be decelerating.

Looking back to last December when the Fed raised its rates for the first time in a decade, four rate hikes were forecast for the following year 2016. However, until the end of the 2016 September meeting, not even one rate hike has been undertaken by the Fed, as U.S economic growth has remained uneven.

With a labor market moving towards full capacity, Fed chair Yellen said that the case for an interest rate increase had been strengthened. However, considering subdued economic growth abroad and weakness in inflation, as well as relatively sluggish performance in the manufacturing and service sectors at home, the time required for the world’s most powerful central bank to complete its policy normalization process may be longer than initially thought.

Technical Analysis

Fig: EURUSD D1 Technical Chart

Euro found firm support at 1.11500 which has recently helped the pair avoid falling deeper into losses. The currency pair broke above the 23.6% retracement level yesterday and continues heading upwards in the last session ahead of the weekend. The RSI index has just confirmed the uptrend by surpassing the 50 line. Nonetheless, the downward trendline connecting the lower highs over the last couple of months is within sight. The resistance offered by the downward sloping trendline may contain the upside. Thus further gains currently seem limited.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.12145, Take profit at 1.12500, Stop loss at 1.11800
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:59 am

Daily Report on September 26, 2016



Crude prices nudged up on Monday ahead of the informal meeting between OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC producers such as Russia on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria from Sept. 26-28. Algeria's energy minister Noureddine Bouterfa said on Sunday that all options were possible for an oil output cut or freeze, and “"We will not come out of the meeting empty-handed."

The dollar extended losses against the yen and euro in early Asian trading hours on Monday, as the impending first debate between U.S. presidential candidates is due later today. The market keenly awaits the first of three face-to-face contests between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, which could determine the currency's near-term direction.

New Zealand’s Statistics Bureau reported Monday that the national trade balance widened to a deficit of NZ$1.3 billion on a yearly basis in August, compared to a NZ$730 million shortfall expected. Particularly, exports fell by $323 million to $3.4 billion in August, with dairy and meat products leading the downfall. Meanwhile, goods imports fell $148 billion to $4.7 billion, with capital goods declining $195 million.

In the UK, the latest survey of 115 financial services firms by business lobby CBI and consultancy PwC found that optimism over the outlook for Britain's financial services sector is at its lowest point since the financial crisis. Optimism fell during the three months to September, the third quarter in a row that it has dropped, marking the longest decline since the financial crisis in 2009.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 technical Chart

GBPUSD is once again heading for the support level at 1.29500 which has been holding the currency pair from breaking lower for almost one and a half month. The two MAs placed above the price action are setting a bearish tone for GBP/USD and indicating a possible break through the 1.29500 level. In the event of a continuation lower, the first notable level of support is seen at 1.29000.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.29500, Take profit at 1.29000, Stop loss at 1.30000



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 technical Chart

USDJPY is swinging back and forth within the range between 101.200 and 100.600. The convergence of the ADX line with +DI and –DI lines indicates that no clear impending trend is being formed in the market. With the RSI staying below the average level, sellers are outweighing buyers a little, but the current level of force may not be enough for a breakout of the support at 100.600.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 100.600, Take profit at 101.000, Stop loss at 100.200



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 technical Chart

AUDUSD has been wobbling around the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.76147 since last Friday but is expected to pull back from this level as prices seem to be up against solid support which is the short-term MA20. Although the RSI is heading downwards, the index has not fallen below 50, suggesting a strong bull that is still reigning in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.76250, Take profit at 0.76730, Stop loss at 0.76000



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 technical Chart

Silver is marching towards the 23.6% retracement level. The market is expected to break below this level easily, considering the last four breakouts. A reversal into a downtrend has been confirmed after the price action crossed over the 20-period MA near 19.623 from above. Furthermore, the RSI index which has inched below 50 has also confirmed further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 19.500, Take profit at 19.265, Stop loss at 19.720



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 technical Chart

WTI crude prices have resumed the downtrend after a period of corrective buying. WTI fell nearly 5% in the last session from two-week highs around 46.50 to as low as 44.20, and broke below both MA20 and MA50, consolidating the downward momentum. Sellers are anticipated to send the market lower. As can be seen from the RSI chart, the index remains under the 50 level

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 44.50, Take profit at 43.85, Stop loss at 45.10



FTSE



Fig: FTSE H4 technical Chart

FTSE has been on a decline from over one-month highs at 6937.90. Even though the two moving averages are placed below the price action, the index is likely to keep falling as downward pressure is being exerted from parabolic sar band placed above the price action. The %K line is taking the lead ahead of the %D line in the race towards the oversold zone.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 6880.00, Take profit at 6815.00, Stop loss at 6920.50
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:49 pm

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A Week Of Little Economic Data Ahead – Focus Shifts To U.S Presidential Debate, Algiers Meeting Between Oil Producers

Global stocks trimmed weekly gains on Friday, weighed by lower oil prices and the bounce back in the U.S dollar. The Dow Jones ended down 0.71 percent, at 18,261.45, the S&P 500 lost 0.57 percent, to 2,164.69 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.63 percent, to 5,305.75. Still, major indexes posted gains for the week, with the S&P 500 recording its best weekly performance in more than two months.

Stocks took off on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to leave the low-interest-rate environment intact by keeping rates unchanged, which helped fuel the bull market. The U.S dollar that typically moves in an opposite direction with equity markets, lost ground against most of its peers, as investors forecast that the Fed would not increase its Fed funds rate until December.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision on Wednesday, and is due to speak via video conference at the Minority Bankers Forum in Kansas City on Thursday. Her comments will be watched closely for any new hints on policy, following repeated speeches saying that the case for a rate hike has strengthened given a steady labor market.

The euro finished the week higher but the pair has been confined between a 1.1120 to 1.13500 range since mid-August. While manufacturing activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole accelerated, the service sector stagnated, thus depressing the composite index lower. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels on Monday, and is scheduled to speak about current developments in the euro area at the German Bundestag, in Berlin on Wednesday.

There were no major U.K. economic reports released in the past week, but the British Pound was still among a handful of currencies that traded lower against the greenback. The answer to the question of whether the U.K government will trigger Article 50 and start a period of negotiations with the EU regarding Britain leaving the EU, still lingers in the minds of investors. Last Friday, U.K foreign secretary Boris Johnson said that his government should act as soon as possible and the deal should be sealed before a new round of elections to the European Parliament in May 2019. The calendar remains light next week for the GBP with only revised second quarter GDP numbers due on Friday.

The best performing commodity currency last week was the Australian Dollar. The Aussie was given a boost from the RBA minutes which said that the central bank did not see any serious need to ease in the near future. The Reserve Bank of Australia noted that it sees current monetary policy as being accommodative enough to meet its inflation goals. In the coming week, no major Australian economic data will be reported.

On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar was hit hard by the RBNZ’s dovish monetary bias. The RBNZ made it very clear that “further policy easing will be required” to ensure inflation moves towards the target because the local currency is still too strong. Similar to the AUD, there are no important data releases for the NZD barring trade numbers scheduled for release at the beginning of the coming week.

The Canadian dollar traded strongly for most of last week, largely thanks to the sell-off in the U.S. dollar and a rise in oil prices. However, the Loonie collapsed on Friday, halting a four-day rally, following a slate of unsatisfying economic data.

Canada’s core inflation rate in August grew at the slowest pace in two years. Consumer prices excluding volatile items such as food and energy, slowed to 1.8 percent from July’s 2.1 percent on a yearly basis, Statistics Canada said. Compared to the same period last year, the overall inflation rate decelerated to 1.1 percent, from 1.3 percent one month earlier. On a month-on-month basis, both economic indicators made no progress.

Not only did inflation readings lag behind forecasts, Canada’s retail sales were reported to fall 0.1 percent in July, versus an estimate calling for a 0.1 percent increase. Core retail sales which strip out automobiles dropped 0.1% in the same period as well.

Continuing the light week ahead, no data for the CAD will be published until Friday, when Canadian GDP numbers are scheduled for release.

Despite an unexpected drop in the weekly crude oil inventory data reported by the U.S. government, crude oil remained vulnerable to any headlines related to the informal talks between major producers next week in Algeria from Monday through Wednesday. The Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that domestic crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels last week, for the third week in a row.

Chances of an output freeze deal being reached appeared minimal after Saudi Arabia and its rival Iran failed to reach any consensus after a two-day meeting last week. Furthermore, according market sources, OPEC’s biggest oil producer did not see September as the right time for any significant move. Instead, the freeze talks could be postponed to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30.

Late on Monday night(early Tuesday in Asia), the markets will turn their attention to the first televised U.S. presidential debate between Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Recent polls have shown a tightening race, with Election Day is only six weeks away.
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Sep 26, 2016 12:53 pm

EUR/AUD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:00 26/09/2016

Till GMT 21:00 26/09/2016

Buy at 1.47600

Take profit at 1.48300

Stop loss at 1.46800
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:54 pm

Twitter Sellers Trending – Shares Downgraded to Under Perform, Buyout Talks In The Air

After soaring more than 20% in the year to date, shares of Twitter Inc. seem to be suffering from a perception of being overvalued compared to other social media platforms. Twitter stocks traded around $22 on Friday amidst rumors of a buyout, which have kept re-surfacing for months.

But according to market analysts, given weaknesses in the company, such as slowing user growth and engagement, and weak advertising technology, the price target for Twitter’s shares is being projected around $17. Twitter shares have consequently sunk more than 3% on Monday.

Snapchat and Pinterest are emerging as strong competitors, and have already outpaced Twitter in terms of engagement and advertising investment. Data indicates that the average time users spent on Snapchat in August is almost twice as much as that on Twitter.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 21.95, Take profit at 21.65, Stop loss at 22.20
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:05 pm

Will Clinton Victory Ignite A Multi Year Bull Run In Natural Gas?

Natural gas rose for the first time in the last four trading sessions, on Monday. After drifting lower in the second half of last week due to both fundamental and technical pressure, natural gas bounced back today as hedge funds increased bullish wagers on the commodity.

Natural Gas Demand-Supply Outlook
Natural gas pulled back from 16-month highs at $3.097 on Wednesday, and was driven lower on Thursday after the U.S. EIA reported larger-than-expected stocks for the week ended Sept. 16. Data showed that supplies rose 52 bcf in the reported week, topping the average rise of 51 bcf expected by analysts. Total stocks surged to 3.551 trillion cubic feet, up 140 bcf from a year ago and 268 bcf above the five-year average.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday indicated money managers increased their net-long positions in natural gas futures and options for a second week to the highest level since 2014. NG futures have staged a dramatic recovery after a warmer than usual winter led to low consumption and left behind record inventories earlier this year, sending prices to multi-decade lows in March. Scorching summer and unusually warm weather for this time of year has boosted air-conditioner use this year.

As a result, gas demand from electricity generators has been pushed to a record, helping erode an inventory surplus that was weighing on prices. Drillers cut costs and capped production from shale due to low oil prices. Thus, stockpiles may fall below normal levels before the winter. In the event of a cold winter, the NG market may be left with a deficit and could be vulnerable to price spikes.

Gas used by power plants has risen 55% since 2006 not just due to a boom in production from U.S. shale fields that increased supply and drove down prices. Furthermore, governments are gradually replacing coal with gas as it produces less carbon dioxide than coal when burned.

Japan’s demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to increase regardless of the nuclear re-start program. Japan is the world’s largest LNG importer at about 35% of global demand. Nonetheless, this country is still overly reliant on oil and coal when it comes to energy use. Japan is being criticized for using a significantly higher ratio of oil and coal in generating power than other developed countries. As a result, Japanese government to encourage natural gas consumption instead of oil and coal to reduce CO2 emissions.

U.S. Presidential Debate
Natural gas investors are waiting for the debate between U.S. presidential candidates that is scheduled for later today. Given different economic policies of the two candidates, U.S gas demand will be influenced. According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, gas use for power generation in 2030 will fall by 11% compared to the level of 2015, if Republican Donald Trump is elected.

Trump is among those supporting to eliminate clean air rules proposed by President Barack Obama. Obama’s Clean Power Plan targets to wean the U.S. off coal used by power plants to reduce emissions by 32 percent by 2030.

On the contrary, the volume of natural gas burned by America’s power plants may rise by 5.8 percent should Democrat Hillary Clinton, who has pledged to enforce the Obama plan, becomes the first female president of the U.S.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas has witnessed a strong rise since March 2016 which has doubled and pushed the commodity price above 3.000 for the first time since May 2015. The price retreated after the market hit the overbought threshold but is expected to extend the advance as both the short-term DMA20 and the long-term DMA50 are moving below the price action, fueling bullish momentum in the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2.985, Take profit at 3.020, Stop loss at 2.930
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Sep 27, 2016 10:25 am

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Daily Report on September 27, 2016

Asian markets bounced back from early losses as financial markets unanimously agreed that Hillary Clinton had won the first of the three presidential debates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5 percent, having recovered from a loss of as much as 0.9 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 also swung 0.3 percent higher, having been down 1.5 percent.

Data from Chinese National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed that profits of China’s industrial corporations surged the most in the last three years. Industrial profits jumped by 19.5 percent in August from a year earlier to 534.8 billion yuan ($80.2 billion), which added to evidence of continued stabilization in manufacturing.

Speaking in parliament earlier today, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that the Bank of Japan's new policy framework was intended to strengthen monetary policy and to achieve its 2 percent inflation target at the earliest possible time. Abe expressed his trust in BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and said specific policy steps should be left up to the BOJ.

Yesterday, the U.S Commerce Department reported that purchases of new U.S. homes dropped in August after surging a month earlier to the fastest pace since 2007. Home sales fell 7.6 percent to 609,000 on an annualized basis last month, from a revised annualized reading of 659,000 in July.



Technicals

USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF retreated from the major resistance at 0.97000, where the pair also hit the short-term MA20. Last Friday, the U.S dollar made a breakout from this level and reached another resistance at 0.97400. But as can be seen from the price action, a strong bearish influence has been reigning in the market and has wiped out the bullish sentiment. The pair fell back below the 0.97000 handle and is expected to retest the 23.6% retracement level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.96800, Stop loss at 0.97100, Take profit at 0.96514



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has surged dramatically about 100 pips from the lows at around 0.72200 and is attempting to get back into the ascending trading channel which had contained the price range in the mid-late September period. Although the RSI has surpassed the 50 line, we can see that the market has entered the overbought zone. It seems challenging for the pair to go far from the current level. Therefore, a decline is expected.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.73200, Stop loss at 0.72900, Take profit at 0.73630



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY remained in bearish territory as the pair failed to cross over the 20-period moving average. Long upper shadows of the last two candles indicate an overwhelming bear that has been creating lower highs on the price chart. The next support to be tested is at 100.000.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 100.500, Stop loss at 101.000, Take profit at 100.000



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been stuck between the support at 1333.60 and the resistance at 1342.00 since last Thursday. The ADX index has hit the lows at around 23.66. Nonetheless, the relative strength index is pointing upwards and continues to stay above 50, suggesting a market in favor of the bulls.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1337.50, Stop loss at 1333.00, Take profit at 1342.00



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude declined towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 46.74 after vacillating strongly yesterday. Aggressive market volatility prompted the commodity to break through this handle easily but the same is not expected to repeat today. A bullish market is anticipated to support the price to advance further after testing the 23.6% level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 46.74, Stop loss at 46.30, Take profit at 47.60



Dow Jones



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

The Dow opened the market with a gap up on Tuesday but is heading downwards to cover the gap. The index is still below the upward sloping trendline connecting higher lows since September 12, after having broken below this support yesterday, sending the market into an oversold state. The market may re-attempt yesterday’s low at 18086.60 but is not likely to fall further beyond this level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 18086.60, Stop loss at 17990.00, Take profit at 18330.00
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:44 pm

Silver Loses Ground Following Clinton Victory and Collapsing Oil – Short Positions Suggested

Silver dropped for a third day in a row on Tuesday, hitting the lowest in more than a week at around $18.960 per ounce. The decline was due to a firmer dollar, weakening oil prices and the outcome of the first presidential debate that sent investors towards riskier assets, after a Clinton victory that relieved some of the market’s fears.

Democrat Clinton was judged by financial markets to win the late night Monday contest, which helped put downside pressure on safe-haven assets including silver. Further downside pressure was created by a falling crude price that has been sliding since the last 24 hours, dampening the appeal of commodities in general including gold and silver – which are considered a shield for investor wealth against inflation.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 19.000, Stop loss at 19.300, Take profit at 18.765
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:52 pm

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Mexican Peso Rises From All Time Lows Following Trump Defeat – But Can The Rally Sustain The Momentum?

The Mexican Peso rose nearly 2% on Tuesday after Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton outperformed her rival Donald Trump in the first of three presidential debates. Recently, the peso has been moving in inverse proportion to the probability of a Donald Trump victory, as the Republican candidate is perceived to be a significant threat to Mexico’s economy.

The peso plunged to a record low of about 19.90 against the U.S dollar last week and had hovered near an all-time low around the 20.00 threshold for a couple of day ahead of the widely expected debate, as polls indicated support was growing for Trump. Trump has pledged to renegotiate the two-decade-old North American Free Trade Agreement. This could spell trouble for the Mexican economy as the United States is Mexico’s biggest single export market.

If Trump is elected, and the NAFTA agreement is terminated, some Mexican goods will be slapped with a 35% tariff, such as Ford cars that are made in Mexico and sold in the United States

Furthermore, the Republican nominee blamed immigrants from Mexico for causing a number of U.S’ evils such as violent crime, drugs and the loss of jobs. Trump launched his campaign last year, promising to step up immigration controls and even vowing to build a wall along the US – Mexico border.

Until the Election Day on November 8, there are two more debates and the peso is foreseen to keep fluctuating with each event.

However, in general, Trump is not the only reason triggering the downfall of the Mexican peso versus the greenback. Depressed oil prices, declining foreign investment, and stagnating wages for low-income workers are among structural problems that Mexico’s government is facing. Mexico’s economy was reported to have contracted for the first time in three years in the second quarter of this year. Thus, it is hard for the peso to hold on to today’s gains, purely based on a Clinton victory.

USDMXN rebounded from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 19.44059 after falling steeply from all-time highs at 19.91962. The sharp decline has brought the market into bearish territory and pushed the price action to move past the two moving averages. But the downside seems short-lived as the price has crossed back above the long term MA50 from below. With the RSI Index nearing the oversold territory, the market could ounce back and resume its rise to test the recent highs.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 19.60000, Stop loss at 19.44000, Take profit at 19.74000
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Sep 28, 2016 10:03 am

GBP/CHF signal

From GMT 07:10 28/09/2016

Till GMT 21:00 28/09/2016

Buy at 1.26500

Take profit at 1.27000

Stop loss at 1.26200
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