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Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:29 pm

Will Climate Change Create A Sugar Famine? Longs Suggested As Global Supply Squeezed

Sugar retreated from four-year highs at 22.28 cents per pound reached earlier today. The commodity has surged more than 40% since the start of this year owing to the El Nino weather phenomenon that has disrupted production in major sugar producing countries and caused a shortfall in the 2015/2016 season.

Researchers are forecasting a global deficit of 7.2 metric tons in the upcoming 2016/17 season after a 7.9 metric ton shortage this season. Sugar output from Brazil’s main central and southern sugarcane growing regions in the second half of August dropped by 14% from the first half of last month to 2.54 metric tons.

Furthermore, a significant strengthening in the Brazilian Real (the local currency) based on belief that the new federal administration will succeed in stabilizing the economy and re-attracting investment, has made the local sugar price less attractive for farmers in the world’s top sugar producer.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 22.10, Take profit at 22.28, Stop loss at 21.90
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:14 am

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Daily Report on September 21, 2016

Crude Prices Rally As Inventories Fall – All Eyes On FOMC


Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, supported by a draw-down in U.S. crude inventories and firm import data from Japan. The American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday reported that U.S oil stocks decreased by 7.5 million barrels last week to 507.2 million barrels, registering the third weekly draw-down in inventories.

Adding to the bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) on Wednesday reported that Japan’s crude oil imports rose 0.5% in August from the same month a year earlier. On average, the world's fourth-biggest crude oil buyer imported 3.38 million barrels per day last month.

In the same report, the MOF stated that Japan's exports fell 9.6 percent from a year earlier to 5.316 trillion yen, due to a strengthening Japanese Yen and weak overseas demand. Japanese exports have been sluggish for 11 consecutive months, while imports also declined 17.3% from a year before to 5.335 trillion yen.

In the U.S, new home construction fell by 5.8% in August to a 1.14 million annualized rate, as a plunge in the South, the biggest region for building, outweighed gains in the rest of the country. The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also indicated that building permits dropped 0.4% to a 1.14 million annualized rate. Both readings fell short of expectations.

The New Zealand dollar retreated overnight, after Fonterra Co-operative Group, the world's biggest dairy exporter, announced that the Fonterra's GDT Price Index climbed 1.7 percent in the auction held on Tuesday. The average international selling prices for milk rose to $2,975 per ton while volumes dropped 4.6% from the first auction this month to 35,086 tons.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

The British Pound has been falling steeply over the last week or so, paring most of its gains in the period from mid-August to early September. The pair has broken through the ascending channel and the trendline support connecting the notable highs registered between late July and August. Lower lows created recently on the price chart, alongside with lower lows that have been formed on the indicator chart, indicate overwhelming bearish force in the market. The price action has broken through both the MA's from above and both MA's are now placed above the price action creating further pressure on prices.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.29450, Take profit at 1.29000, Stop loss at 1.30000



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD is moving along the 20-period MA. The pair has not been able to decisively breach this zone of support and has had to reverse higher every time it tends to make a crossover through the MA from above. Bulls have kept the market in the bullish territory for quite a long time and the market is forecast to extend the rally as no fundamental factor will show up until the U.S session. The RSI is placed near the neutral threshold and therefore the market is expected to persist along the current path.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.32000, Take profit at 1.32400, Stop loss at 1.31600



GBPCHF



Fig: GBPCHF H4 Technical Chart

GBPCHF has been suffering some selling pressure recently after the pair started retreating from the two-month high at 1.31192 created on September 6. The pair is struggling around the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.27024 and is under downward pressure from the two MAs placed above the price action. The market seems to be in a period of consolidation with indicators providing little clarity in terms of decisive direction. GBPCHF is expected to make a break through the 61.8% level to the downside, after completing the consolidation as up-moves are struggling to register any significant levels.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.27020, Take profit at 1.26250, Stop loss at 1.27500





WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S crude price has breached the resistance at 44.50 but the up-moves are threatened by the two resistance lines connecting recent highs of significance between the August/September period. The market is in a bullish formation for the first time since last Tuesday, after the price action crossed over both the MA's from below and the RSI providing a confirmation as well. Fundamental data and short-covering are on course to push the commodity towards the 23.6% retracement level at 45.56.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 45.00, Take profit at 45.56, Stop loss at 44.50



COTTON



Fig: Cotton H4 Technical Chart

Cotton has been on a steady rise but currently witnessed some corrective moves after reaching over one-week highs at 70.75 at the market open today. The commodity not only created a gap up in the early Asian session but also covered the gap and is pointing downwards to the 38.2% retracement level at 70.00. As technical indicators are suggesting further advances, the 38.2% level is forecast to be a firm support that will force cotton prices to reverse higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 70.00, Take profit at 71.50, Stop loss at 69.30



Dow Jones



Fig: Dow Jones H4 Technical Chart

Dow Jones’ trading range has been shrinking since last Monday and the price action is now in a triangle of congestion. The index has continuously created big gaps on the market open recently, indicating an unstable sentiment among investors. The RSI and Stochastic are nowhere near providing any decisive indications of the state of the market A breakout can be expected through either side with equal probability as the collapse in daily volatility is bound to be followed by a major move in either direction as the triangle resolves itself.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18250.00, Take profit at 18355.00, Stop loss at 18120.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:35 pm

Adobe Systems On Cloud 9 – Cloud Computing Powers Profits – Buying Suggested

Adobe Systems Inc. looks set to open the U.S session with a gap up on Wednesday after the company reported better-than-expected earnings for the third quarter following the market close yesterday.

For the fiscal quarter ending August 2016, the software company posted earnings of $270.8 million, or 54 cents per share, up from $174.5 million, or 34 cents per share for the same quarter in 2015. Excluding certain items, Adobe’s earnings per share rose to 75 cents, reaching the top end of its forecast range from 69 cents to 75 cents.

Revenue rose 20.4% on a yearly basis to $1.46 billion, thanks to record revenues of $990 million in the Digital Media Solutions segment. Within the segment, the Creative Cloud (CC) and Document Cloud (DC) categories contributed $803 million and $187 million in revenue, respectively, reflecting the effectiveness of the focus towards adoption of cloud technology.

Shantanu Narayen, Adobe president and chief executive officer said that “Our leadership in cloud-based content and data platforms make us a mission critical partner to the world’s biggest brands as they transform how they engage with their customers.”

In a prepared statement, the California-based company’s Chief Financial Officer Mark Garrett stated that he expected “another record quarter” in the current three-month period. Garrett forecast his company’s revenues in the range of $1.55-$1.6 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, and between $5.8 and $5.85 billion for the whole fiscal year 2016.



Adobe shares soared back above the daily moving averages yesterday, suggesting a short/medium term bottom and a reversal into an uptrend. As can be seen from the ADX chart, bears are getting weakened. While the ADX has lowered to 28.31 from the highs at 50.27, the +DI line has crossed over the –DI line from below. The RSI index has surpassed the neutral 50 line, providing confirmation for the up-trend. The price action has broken through both the MA’s from below and both MA’s should be underpinning the price moves as solid support going forward.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 101.70, take profit at 104.05, stop loss at 98.50
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:38 pm

FedEx Delivers Better Than Expected Profits – Traders Ready To Pack In Long Positions

FedEx Corp. reported better-than-anticipated earnings for the quarter ended August after the closing bell yesterday. The shipping and logistics company’s operational results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2017 topped expectations even though its acquisition of TNT Express NV cost the company nearly $5 billion in May.

FedEx reported $14.7 billion in sales and $715 million earnings or $2.65 a share in the quarter, after deducting 25 cents per share for all the costs associated with TNT.

The package-delivery giant lowered its yearly guidance for the fiscal year ending in May 2017 to a range from $10.85 to $11.35 a share, down from the previous forecast of $11.75 to $12.25, referring the acquisition with TNT and the sluggish global economy as reasons for the adjustment.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 168.00, Take profit at 169.50, stop loss at 166.50
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:16 am

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Daily Report on September 22, 2016



Asian stocks extended their rally on Thursday for a sixth consecutive trading session, supported by accommodative monetary policies in the U.S., Europe and Asia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 1.3 percent, taking its cue from the rally on Wall Street overnight after the U.S Federal Reserve echoed the stance adopted by other central banks in maintaining accommodative monetary policy.

The Fed held its target rate for overnight lending between banks in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent after its two-day meeting that ended on Wednesday. The central bank still indicated a rate hike by the end of this year, but its projection for the number of rate increases next year was trimmed to two from three. While the Nasdaq closed at record highs, all 11 major sectors making up the S&P500 index finished in the green with the best performance coming from the energy sector.

Crude oil gained following an unexpected drop in the weekly crude oil inventory data reported by the U.S. government. The Report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that domestic crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels last week - for the third week in a row. The commodity continued to rally on Thursday, boosted by the decline in the dollar. Other industrial metals such as copper, aluminum and zinc also climbed.

The New Zealand Dollar weakened after its central bank stated that further policy easing is expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate unchanged at 2 percent on Thursday, but reiterated that “Further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range.”



Technicals

USDCHF

Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF fell through the price range between the resistance at 0.98170 and the support at 0.97803, which marks the 38.2% retracement level. The US Dollar plunged sharply under the influence of aggressively bearish forces, which can be seen in the long bodies of the down candles. The MA20 has penetrated the long term MA50 from above, in addition to the price action crossing through both the MA's from above. Currently both MA's are placed above the price action and the RSI index is beginning to head lower, suggesting that USDCHF may fall deeper towards the 23.6% retracement level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.97000, Take profit at 0.96512, Stop loss at 0.97365



NZDUSD

Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD is trading in an ascending channel running parallel to the previous upward trading range. In fact, the lower boundary of earlier last range has turned into the resistance for the current channel. While the RSI indicates that buyers are overshadowing sellers, the stochastic chart is indicating a possible pullback, with the %K line crossing over the %D line from north to south. The RSI index is in neutral territory currently. Trade against the generally upward direction prevailing currently, need to wait for more signals, at least till the RSI surpasses the 50-line.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.73230, Take profit at 0.72900, Stop loss at 0.73650



EURCAD

Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD appears to be in the final stages of a head and shoulders pattern. The pair is heading downwards to the support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.45631 after pulling back from over five-month highs at 1.48700 – that was reached mid-September. The slide has sent the pair trading below the two moving averages. The MA20 has converged with the MA50 from above, suggesting further declines. The price action has also broken below both the MA's from above, indicating a bearish setup.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.46300, Take profit at 1.45631, Stop loss at 1.47500



SILVER

Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver is experiencing some corrective moves after breaking out of the recent consolidation period and breaching the 23.6% retracement at 19.367. The sharp rally quickly exhausted bulls and has pushed the market in an overblown/overbought state. Silver has retreated from the highest level since September 08 at 19.859. With upward support from the two MAs below, the grey metal is expected to reverse and re-attempt the high at 20.100

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 19.850, Take profit at 20.100, Stop loss at 19.500



WTI

Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI crude has moved past the 23.6% level at 45.56 after vigorously soaring from the lows at 43.00. The market state reversed from near oversold to almost overbought. The commodity consequently had to retreat to gather itself and regain some bullish momentum. Further advances have been confirmed by the 20-period moving average that has converged with the MA50 from below, with both MA's firmly underpinning the current up-move.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 45.80, Take profit at 46.50, Stop loss at 45.40



FTSE

Fig: FTSE H4 Technical Chart

The FTSE100 is currently moving sideways, but in general, the index has been ticking upwards to retest the resistance at 6880.00. Coupled with the RSI index that is hovering in bullish territory, the %K line has reversed and penetrated the %D line from below, indicating that buyers are dominating the market. The two MAs placed below the price action are forecast to consolidate the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 6880.00, Take profit at 6955.00, Stop loss at 6816.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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USD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:55 am

USD/JPY signal

From GMT 08:15 22/09/2016
Till GMT 21:00 22/09/2016

Buy at 100.600
Take profit at 101.200
Stop loss at 100.000
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Thu Sep 22, 2016 7:28 pm

Gold Rally Snaps As Risk Tolerance Rises – Is 1338 Possible?

Gold retreated early in the European session on Thursday. Investors took profits after the rally yesterday that lifted prices by nearly 1.5% on the day, and shifted their attention to riskier assets after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

Fed Insists on A Rate Hike In 2016

As expected by the majority of market participants, the Fed stood pat on the benchmark rate at the September meeting. The central bank decided to hold its target rate for overnight lending between banks in a range of 0.25 to 0.50%. The Fed stated that the decision did not reflect any lack of confidence in the U.S economy. Policymakers would like to witness more evidence of continued progress towards its goals, before deciding on the next steps.

In the current environment, one of two targets set by the central bank has been reached. The labour market has created an average of 182,000 jobs every month so far this year. Average hourly earnings and participation rate are rising. Nevertheless, inflation is still far below the Fed’s 2% goal. Considering recent disappointing economic data that reflected falling consumer consumption, and weaker activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, the Fed probably needs to leave the low-rate environment intact for some more time to support the economic recovery.

Nonetheless, the central bank also indicated a rate hike by the end of this year. Speaking at the FOMC Press Conference following the rate decision, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. growth was looking stronger and rate increases would be needed to keep the economy from overheating. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a nearly 60% possibility of a December rate increase.

Gold’s Upside Seems Limited Due To Fading Attractiveness
Gold rose sharply on the deferral of an interest rate hike. A softer dollar, which gold is traded in globally, makes the precious metal less expensive for investors holding other currencies. Low interest rates also boost gold’s appeal as it doesn’t offer a yield and incurs an opportunity cost to the investor for holding it. However, the upside seems limited. Gold’s main function of hedging against risks, is being overlooked as speculators jump into riskier but higher-yield assets such as stocks. Such assets seem to be benefitting from perceptions of a continuation of the low interest rate environment.

On the supply side
Gran Colombia Gold Corp. is forecast to halt production by Friday. A local mining collective, comprised in its majority by illegal miners, convened a strike in Segovia and Remedios, (in which the company’s Segovia Operations are located) and prevented mining activity. Gran Colombia Gold is continuing to produce gold from stockpiles. Still, the supply is limited and not expected to sustain operations into next week.

CEO Lombardo Paredes said that a stoppage could prevent Gran Colombia Gold from reaching a 2016 output target of 145,000 to 150,000 ounces.

Technical Analysis


Gold took off after moving sideways around the 1315 level since the start of this week. The precious metal has successfully breached through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1330.00. Previously, the strong rally sent the market into the overbought territory. Gold is re-gaining momentum after a slight retreat. Two MAs that have converged and are currently placed below the price action. Thus, the metal is expected to surge and reach the 50.0% level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1334.00, Take profit at 1338.50, Stop loss at 1330.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:35 am

GBP/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:35 23/09/2016

Till GMT 21:00 23/09/2016

Sell at 1.26250

Take profit at 1.25750

Stop loss at 1.27000
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Daily Report on September 23, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:38 am

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Daily Report on September 23, 2016



Asian shares eased and European shares opened lower on Friday as the U.S dollar rebounded and oil prices cooled down following two sessions of strong rises. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared some of the gains from its biggest weekly rally in two months, to trade 0.3% lower, while Japan's Nikkei225 dipped 0.1%. The U.S dollar index, which tracks the strength of the greenback versus a basket of major currencies ticked up 0.14% to 95.50.

Crude prices retreated from two-week highs in early Asian trade, dragged down by a technical sell-off and by cautious sentiment ahead of a gathering of OPEC ministers next Monday in Algeria. On the sidelines of the International Energy Forum, OPEC and non-OPEC members will attend an informal meeting to discuss possible cooperative actions to stabilize the oversupply situation in the oil market.

Data from research group Markit on Friday reported that Japanese manufacturing activity in September expanded for the first time in the last seven months. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the country’s flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in the current month from a final reading of 49.5 in August.

In the U.S, jobless claims dropped to their lowest level since July 2015, Department of Labor said on Thursday. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week slid to 252,000. The number of weekly jobless claims have remained below the 300,000 level, which is associated with a firming labor market, for an 81st consecutive week,



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

GBPUSD retreated after the price action hit the downward sloping trendline connecting higher highs since June 29. At the same time, the prices fell back below both the long-term and short-term MA's, indicating that the up moves recorded earlier in the week were a result of profit taking by shorts. GBPUSD is expected to extend the slide as the RSI index has dipped below the 50 line, suggesting a comeback by bears.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.30200, Stop loss at 1.31200, Take profit at 1.29500



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY pulled back from the resistance at 101.200 following a period of correction. Bears have jumped in at the right time and restrained the RSI index from breaking above the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The price action remains under downward pressure from two MAs placed above the price action. The pair is forecast to re-attempt the support at 100.000.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 100.600, Stop loss at 101.200, Take profit at 100.000



EURCHF



Fig: EURCHF H4 Technical Chart

The Euro has reversed higher versus the CHF, after a sharp decline that sent the pair back below the 50.0% Fibonacci level. The stochastic and RSI charts are both indicating that the pair has pulled back from the oversold zone. However, lower lows simultaneously created in the price action and the indicators still suggest a strong bear that is likely to push the pair towards the 38.2% retracement level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 1.08860, Stop loss at 1.09100, Take profit at 1.08411



Natural gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural gas is moving sideways to ascending pattern, while holding above the support at 2.975, after falling from record highs around 3.090. Long bodies of the bearish candles show the cautious sentiment among investors as the market seems to quieten as it nears the recent highs. We have received a “bounceback” signal from the stochastic chart, which indicates a possible rise in the price. Natural gas may soar back above the short-term MA20, after a brief ongoing test of this level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.010, Stop loss at 2.970, Take profit at 3.030



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude is coming off the highs following the strongest rally in the last two weeks. Although the MA20 has penetrated the MA50 from below, the upside in crude prices today seems limited, as buyers who have fueled the surge may attempt to take profits off the table and close out longs ahead of the weekend and the meeting between oil producing nations, right at the start of the next week.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 47.20, Stop loss at 47.80, Take profit at 46.75



EURO50



Fig: EURO 50 H4 Technical Chart

As can be seen from the chart, the lower boundary of the upward slopping trading range which had acted as a support for the Euro Stoxx 50 index, is now playing the role of a resistance from which the market reversed lower. The Stochastics are indicating that this is a correction as the market has entered the overbought zone. With the support from the two MAs placed below the price action, the index is expected to bounce back from the support at 3016.50

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 3016.50, Stop loss at 2995.00, Take profit at 3062.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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Re: Daily Market Research by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Fri Sep 23, 2016 7:51 pm

Nasdaq 100 Slips on Rosengren’s Hawkish Comments – Short Position Favored

Nasdaq 100 dropped on Friday, denting weekly gains on the face of a strengthening U.S Dollar and retreating oil prices. The dollar climbed against most major currencies following hawkish comments from Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren that U.S short-term rates should be increased gradually now to avoid economic imbalances and a sudden spurt in rates later on, as such actions usually lead to recessions, going by historical evidence.

The benchmark inched as much as 0.32% lower, with the number of losers and gainers split almost evenly. Shares of JD.com Inc topped the list of best performing components, trading up 2.5%. On the contrary, the biggest loser is Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc whose shares plunged nearly 4%.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4875.00, Take profit at 4865.00, Stop loss at 4885.00
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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