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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:45 am

EUR/USD

The American dollar tread water against it major rivals by the end of last week, but suffered a setback after the FBI Director James Comey, announced on Friday that they would reopen probe into Hillary Clinton emails, on newly discovered material, "potentially pertinent" to the investigation. The bureau, however, has not yet gotten a search warrant to read them, according to news released over the weekend, and Comey has been strongly criticized for dropping such bombshell a few days ahead of the election's date, next November 8th. The EUR/USD pair jumped to its highest for the week, printing 1.0991, closing a handful of pips below the level.

Data coming from both economies was quite encouraging, with the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator for the Eurozone up to 106.3 in October from 104.9 in September, whilst German headline inflation in October came in at 0.8% YoY, from 0.7% in September. In the US, growth rebounded in the third quarter, as the advanced annualized GDP printed 2.9%, beating expectations and well above previous 1.4%. The upcoming week will be fulfilled with fresh data and Central Banks announcements, with attention centered in the FOMC and the BOE, this last, the one with more chances to actually act.

As for the technical outlook, the EUR/USD pair seems to have found an interim bottom at the low set last week at 1.0850, the base of the long term range set between 1.0840 and 1.1460 early 2015. The daily chart, however, shows that the price stalled its recovery right below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, and while technical indicators have left oversold territory and head north, are still within negative territory. Furthermore, the price is below 1.1010, the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily fall, and the level to beat to confirm further recoveries. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have lost upward strength in overbought territory, while the price was unable to advance beyond a bearish 100 SMA, although with the price near its highs, a downward correction is not yet confirmed. As long as the price remains above 1.0950, the risk will be towards the upside this Monday.

Support levels: 1.0950 1.0910 1.0850

Resistance levels: 1.1010 1.1045 1.1090

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:21 am

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh 3-week high of 1.1068, with the dollar trading broadly lower across the board after a US Presidential poll, carried by ABC News/The Washington Post, showed that Donald Trump is one point above Hillary Clinton in voters' intentions, pretty much attributed to last Friday's announcement from the FBI to investigate new emails from Clinton. Macroeconomic releases coming from the US were strong, with the October Markit manufacturing PMI up to 53.4 the highest reading for this year. The ISM manufacturing PMI for the same month, resulted at 51.9, beating expectations of an advance up to 51.7. The negative note came from construction spending, down by 0.4% in September.

Despite upbeat US data that supports the case for a December hike and the upcoming FED meeting this Wednesday, the greenback risks further declines during the upcoming Asian session, as the negative sentiment towards the American currency will likely persists. From a technical point, the 4 hours chart shows that technical indicators are in extreme overbought, despite the pair barely added 100 pips daily basis, amid previous intraday limited ranges, which means that further gains are still possible. The pair needs to extend beyond the mentioned daily high to be able to do so, as it’s the 50% retracement of its latest decline. Activity is expected to fade during the upcoming Asian session and ahead of the FOMC meeting, which will determinate whether this bearish run in the greenback is sustainable or not.

Support levels: 1.1050 1.1010 1.0950

Resistance levels: 1.1090 1.1120 1.1160

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Thu Nov 10, 2016 5:32 am

Thursday 10 November 2016

EUR/USD

Against all odds, Donald Trump has been elected as the 45th President of the United States of America, and surprisingly, the greenback also won, at least against the common currency and the dollar bloc. The American dollar and Wall Street began shedding ground early Asian session, when the first exit polls showed that Mrs. Clinton was not doing as well as expected, and plummeted once Trump´s victory was confirmed early London. The movements were in line with the magnitude expected by investors, although what nobody saw coming was that US stocks would trim all of those intraday losses and rally to fresh multi-month highs.

There's still much uncertainty over both, the economic and political future of the US, not to mention how the FED will act from now on, which means that wild moves in a volatile environment are not yet over. However, there is a clear winner for this election, and it's the Republican Party that now controls not only the Presidency, but also the House of Representatives and the Senate, which means the party will have a clear path when it comes to implement new policies. The question is, would Trump and its co-party members agree? The other winners of the day were US yields, as the 10-year benchmark reached 2.01%, while the 30-year yield rose above 2.80% in the American afternoon.

The EUR/USD pair soared to 1.1299, its highest in two months, but closed the day barely above the 1.0900 level, with the common currency additionally weighed by the European Commission decision to cut the EU and the UK growth forecast. According to the official report, growth would slow to 1.7% this year from 2.0%t in 2015 and decelerate further to 1.5% in 2017 before picking up again to 1.7% in 2018. The wild intraday ride in the pair has left technical readings partially distorted, although the risk is towards the downside, considering that the pair is at fresh two-week lows, and that it failed to hold on to gains above its daily MAs. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price settled below all of its moving averages, and that technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes near oversold readings. The immediate support comes at 1.0910, with a break below it exposing the October low of 1.0850, en route to 1.0800.

Support levels: 1.0910 1.0850 1.0800

Resistance levels: 1.0950 1.1010 1.1060

See more analysis at HYCM.com

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:31 am

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the week at 1.0846 the lowest close since early March this year, as the American dollar outperformed all of its major rivals, except the British Pound, on the back of the result of US Presidential election, resulting in Donald Trump becoming the 45th president of the USA. The initial sell-off in the greenback, and worldwide stocks, was reverted on promises of policies aimed to boost growth, including tax cuts and huge infrastructure spending. Furthermore, markets are firmly believing that the FED will have to raise rates at a faster pace during 2017, to catch up with what are seen as inflationary measures. At this point, a December rate hike seems to be fully priced in, so whether the greenback will be able to extend its rally, or not, is up to the FED actually pulling the trigger, and supportive US macroeconomic data. During the upcoming days, attention will likely remain in Trump and any news on what to expect from his upcoming administration.

Technically, the pair stands at a major long term support, the 1.0800 region, as ever since April 2015, and with a few exceptions, strong buying interest has surged around the level, resulting generally in a recovery up to the top of the range that persists ever since, in the 1.1460 region. The ongoing turmoil and uncertainty, however, may result in another false downward breakout, with scope for the pair to test 1.0461, March 2015 low. For the upcoming days, and according to the daily chart, the risk is towards the downside, given that the price is developing far below all of its moving averages, whilst technical indicators present sharp bearish slopes within negative territory. For the shorter term, the 4 hours chart also supports a downward extension as the RSI indicator consolidates near oversold reading, while the price stands near its daily low, and below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, now around 1.0950, after it crossed below the 200 and 100 SMAs.

Support levels: 1.0800 1.0760 1.0720

Resistance levels: 1.0865 1.0910 1.0950

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Fri Nov 18, 2016 8:31 am

Friday 18 November 2016

EUR/USD

The dollar resumed its advance this Thursday, sending the EUR/USD pair to a fresh year low of 1.0629 in the US afternoon, fueled by comments from FED's Yellen and strong US data that backed the case for a December hike. The greenback traded marginally lower during the past Asian session, but the downward momentum faded once the text of Yellen's testimony on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee, was released. The FED's head offered her strongest comments ever supporting a rate hike, as she remarked that a rate hike could be 'appropriate relatively soon,' adding that keeping rates for too long my 'undermine financial stability.'

Inflation in the US rose by 0.4% in October when compared to the previous month, beating expectations of a 0.3% advance, while the year-on-year figure advanced to 1.6% as expected. Core figures were slightly below expectations, but strong employment and housing figures released alongside, somehow neutralized any possible negative effect. Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 11th came in at 235K, the lowest level since November 1973, while housing starts surged to a 9-year high in October, up by 2.53% to a 1.32 million annualized rate.

The EUR/USD pair pressures its daily low by the end of the US session, overall poised to extend its decline, despite closing in the red for a ninth consecutive day. The daily chart shows that the pair continues posting lower highs and lower lows, while the RSI indicator maintains its bearish strength, despite being around 22, suggesting that upward corrective movements will probably continue to attract selling interest. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart also supports a downward extension, as an early advance was quickly rejected by a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators continue heading south near oversold levels, in line with a downward extension. The pair has an immediate support at 1.0640, with a break below it opening doors for a continued slide towards 1.0460, 2015 yearly low.

Support levels: 1.0600 1.0560 1.0505

Resistance levels: 1.0700 1.0755 1.0800
See more analysis at http://hycm.com/

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:58 am

Monday 21 November 2016

EUR/USD

The market kept buying the greenback for a second consecutive week, pushing the EUR/USD pair to a fresh year low of 1.0568 on Friday. Demand for dollar assets, triggered by Trump´s victory and hopes his growth policies will send inflation higher, sent the dollar index to its highest close since 2003, up 2.15% for the week at 101.32. FED's Chair, Janet Yellen, said this past week that a rate hike could take place "relatively soon," fueling dollar's rally, alongside with positive local data, including the CPI that rose in October by 0.5% from a year earlier, at the fastest rate of growth in two years, whilst weekly unemployment claims fell to 235K, the lowest reading since November 1973.

Still, the movement seems quite overstretched, as the EUR/USD pair has fallen for ten days in-a-row, as a December hike has been fully priced in. A corrective movement should not be dismissed, although is yet to be seen if that could be enough to revert the dominant bearish trend. Technically, the daily chart shows that indicators maintain the strong bearish strength, despite being in extreme oversold territory, suggesting the pair may extend its slide, down to 1.0505 first, December 2015 monthly low, and 1.0460 later, the lowest for 2015. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA has been steadily rejecting advances for the last two weeks, while technical indicators are consolidating within negative territory, supporting a downward extension on a break below 1.0560, the immediate support.

Support levels: 1.0560 1.0505 1.0460

Resistance levels: 1.0640 1.0690 1.0720

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:27 pm

Wednesday 23 November 2016

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair continued trading within a tight range around the 1.0600, having extended its weekly advance by a few pips, up to 1.0657 as the dollar remained under moderate pressure, particularly during the first half of the day, amid a short-lived spike of risk aversion. Market's sentiment turned sour after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake hit Japan at the beginning of the Asian session, fueling demand for safe-haven assets. Also, US elected President Donald Trump, outlined his plans for his first 100 days in office, announcing that he intends to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, and seek for "fair, bilateral trade deals." Wall Street however, was not concerned, with the DJIA surpassing the 19,000 benchmark for the first time ever, and the Nasdaq Composite extending to fresh record highs. The positive momentum in US stocks, prevented the greenback for falling further.

In the data front, there were no major macroeconomic releases in the Europe, although the EU preliminary consumer confidence index came in at -6.1 for November, better than the expected -7.8. In the US, existing home sales rose in October by a second consecutive month, up by 2.0%, while the Richmond FED Manufacturing index for November came in at 4, against previous -4.

From a technical point of view, the pair has made little progress, overall at risk of falling further given that it remains near this year's low, set last Friday at 1.0568, with attempts to recovery meeting selling interest in the 1.0650 region. It seems that investors are waiting for a new trigger to resume dollar's buying, rather than giving up on buying the greenback. In the 4 hours chart, the price is hovering around a bearish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their sharp bearish slopes well above the current level, and technical indicators aim modestly higher, but with no actual upward strength. Overall, the corrective movement can indeed extend up to the 1.0800 region, but unless the pair settles above 1.0840/60, the risk will remain towards the downside.

Support levels: 1.0590 1.0560 1.0510

Resistance levels: 1.0650 1.0690 1.0720

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Thu Nov 24, 2016 11:04 am

Thursday 24 November 2016

EUR/USD

The American dollar firmed up early US session, rallying up to fresh yearly highs against the EUR, even before the release of better-than-expected US data, and in spite of European one, showing that economic activity expanded in the region. According to Markit preliminary November readings, the EU composite PMI is estimated to have been of 53.7 from previous 53.3, the strongest pace of growth so far this year. The German manufacturing sector expanded by less than expected, but posted a solid 54.4, while the Services PMI came in at 55.0, a six-month high.

In the US Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside, up for fourth month in the last five, jumping 4.8% in October. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.9, beating expectations of 53.4, while the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index printed 93.8, its highest in six months. On the downside, weekly unemployment claims rose to 251K in the week ending November 18, while New Home Sales fell in October, down by 1.9%. Finally, the FOMC released the Minutes of its latest meeting, showing that most FED officials saw a rate hike appropriate 'relatively soon.' The market barely react to the news, as it did not add nothing new to what the market already knew.

From a technical point of view, the pair is poised to extend is slide, given that it remains below the 1.0600 level, and below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart, with the 20 SMA offering an immediate resistance around the level. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart has posted a modest bounce within bearish territory, but clearly reflecting the lack of buying interest around the pair. A rate hike for December has been fully priced in, yet the greenback has not yet seen its top. December 2015 low is the immediate support, at 1.0505, with followed by March 2015 low of 1.0461.

Support levels: 1.0505 1.0460 1.0420

Resistance levels: 1.0590 1.0640 1.0675

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby angelkett » Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:23 am

Global Markets News

LONDON Global shares edged up on Tuesday, helped by gains in banks after Italy's largest lender unveiled a 13 billion euro share issue, while the dollar held steady before a Federal Reserve meeting expected to deliver higher interest rates.

Oil prices firm as Abu Dhabi cuts exports amid soaring Asian demand
LONDON Oil prices were stable on Tuesday, supported by strong demand in Asia and a supply cut by Abu Dhabi as part of production curbs organized by OPEC and other exporters.

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