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Daily global market view!

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:27 am

EUR/USD
The American dollar closed last week firmly up against all of its major rivals, helped by a flash crash in the British Pound early Friday. Still, the greenback was supported by generally encouraging local data released at the beginning of the week, that indicate that the US economy keeps growing at a steady pace. On Friday, the long awaited employment report came in a little lower than expected, but it was not enough to deny the case of a December rate hike. In September, the US created 156K new jobs, against 172K expected, the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.9% to 5.0%, whilst average earnings figure rose less than expected, but in line with average readings, up 0.2% MoM and back to 2.6% YoY. The EUR/USD pair seesawed after the release, but ended up recovering from a twomonth low printed at the beginning of the day at 1.1104, to end the day a handful of pips below the 1.1200 level, trapped within the same range for a sixth consecutive week. The absence of directional conviction among investors has deepened after both Central Banks moved to the sidelines, and market's attention is now on the second US presidential debate, late Sunday night, as a possible catalyst for some USD moves. Technically, the pair remains trapped between two longterm trend lines, with the longest being the ascendant one, this week around 1.1090/1.1100. In the daily chart, the price is hovering around horizontal moving averages, while indicators are within neutral territory, while in the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have recovered from oversold readings and pared gains around their midlines, while the price is above its 20 SMA, but below the 100 and 200 SMAs. Overall, the risk remains towards the downside, as long as selling interest surges in the 1.1245/1.1280 region.

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

Support levels:1.1160 1.1120 1.1080

Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1335

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:33 am

EUR/USD

The week started once again in slow motion, as in addition to the usual quietness of Mondays, there were bank holidays in Japan, the US and Canada. The main theme of the day was the US second presidential debate that took place late Sunday, although it had a limited impact on the FX board, resulting, however, USD supportive. Before the first debate, US candidates were head to head, but at this point, Hillary Clinton seems to have taken the lead back, emerging victorious from the two debates according to the media. US polls, said she is leading now by around 5%. Stocks benefited the most, with European equities closing firmly higher. There was little in the calendar, although Germany released its August trade balance data, showing that the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of €22.2 billion in August 2016, while exports increased by 9.8% and imports by 5.3% in the mentioned month, on a yearonyear basis. Also, sentiment in the EU improved according to the Sentix Confidence Index, which printed 8.5 in October from 5.6 in September. As for the EUR/USD pair, it slowly but steadily moved lower all through the day, contained by selling interest in the 1.1200/10 region, and nearing the base of its latest range ahead of the Asian opening. The technical picture is increasingly bearish, given that in the 4 hours chart, the price has faltered around its 100 and 200 SMAs before extending its decline below a now bearish 20 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame maintain downward slopes within negative territory, supporting a bearish extension, despite the limited momentum, this last due to reduced volumes.

Support levels:1.1120 1.1080 1.1040

Resistance levels: 1.1160 1.1205 1.1245
See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Wed Oct 12, 2016 6:36 am

WTI CRUDE

Crude oil prices retreated from the multimonth highs posted this Monday, in spite of positive news coming from the International Energy Agency, as the organism said that oil market may rebalance much faster if the OPEC and Russia agree to reduce production, although the agency also said that is unclear how long it would take. West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded as low as $50.38, but settled a few cents below 51.00, indicating some profit taking, probably triggered by dollar's strength, rather than suggesting that the bullish move has reached a top. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators have retreated from near overbought readings, but remain above previous weekly lows, whilst the 20 SMA keeps heading north below the current level, all of which limits chances of a steeper decline. In the 4 hours chart, the commodity has met buying interest around its 20 SMA, while technical indicators have turned higher from their midlines, also indicating that buying interest outpaces selling one.

Support levels:50.30 49.40 48.70

Resistance levels:51.60 52.20 53.00

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:35 am

EUR/USD

The dollar remained firm after Tuesday's rally, extending its gains against the common currency to the highest in over twomonths, as the EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1004, early US session and ahead of the release of FOMC Minutes. The Pound was an exception, outperforming on news that UK Prime Minister May has accepted that Parliament should vote on her plan for exiting the EU. At the beginning of the day, the Eurozone industrial production surprised on the upside in August up August by 1.6% when compared to July, while compared to August 2015, it rose by 1.8%, beating expectations and due to production of durable consumer goods rising by 4.3%, capital goods by 3.5%, energy by 3.3% and intermediate goods by 1.4%. Despite the figure shows a strong bounce in growth from July's poor figures, the common currency remained under selling pressure. FOMC's Minutes disappointed as usual, as whilst several voters thought that rates should rise "relatively soon,", they also said that a reasonable case could be made for both, hiking and waiting. Also, a substantial majority saw risk roughly balance, although low inflation cast doubts over the upcoming hike. A clearly split FED and more uncertainty surrounding the timing of the so long awaited rate hike. The market barely reacted to the news, with the EUR/USD pair bouncing modestly from its daily low, and technically poised to extend its decline, as in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its downward move to converge now with the long term daily ascendant trend line broken earlier this week, a line in the sand for the ongoing downward move. In the same chart, technical indicators have lost their downward strength, but hold within oversold readings. Adding the fact that the pair is near the critical 1.1000 level, further slides are likely on a break below the psychological figure.

Support levels:1.0990 1.0960 1.0920

Resistance levels: 1.1045 1.1080 1.1120

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:03 am

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the week at its lowest in over two months, and not far from July's low of 1.0951, on continued dollar's demand amid firming expectations of another rate hike in the US before the yearend. Risk appetite came back early Friday, as fears over a Chinese economic slowdown receded following betterthanexpected local inflation data. Further supporting the greenback was a modest uptick in US retail sales in September, up by 0.6% compared to August, matching expectations. The core figure, exautos, came in at 0.5%, beating expectations of a 0.4% reading. Also, the producer price index was slightly firmer than expected up 0.7% yearonyear basis, and by 0.3% in September from previous 0.0%. Dollar's momentum continued in spite of a downward surprise in Michigan's consumer sentiment index that plunged to 87.9 from previous 91.2 in October, it's lower in over a year, attributed to the contentious presidential election campaign. During this upcoming week, attention will center on US September CPI figures, as a pickup, particularly in core readings, will further increase hopes of a FED's hike. Additionally, the ECB is having an economic policy meeting, although no new announcements are expected from the ECB, largely expected to maintain the focus on QE's implementation. As for the technical picture, this last week's decline has left daily indicators in oversold readings, but with a strong downward momentum, indicating that the pair may extend further it's decline before pulling back some in correction mode. In the same chart, the price has finally moved away from the congestion of moving averages that anyway persists around 100 pips above the current level. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads sharply lower, offering a dynamic resistance around 1.1025 for this Monday, while the Momentum has turned flat within bearish territory, after failing to overcome its midline, while the RSI indicator heads south around 26, also supporting additional declines. The immediate support is the mentioned July low at 1.0950, followed by the postBrexit low, at 1.0910.

Support levels:1.0960 1.0910 1.0860

Resistance levels: 1.0990 1.1025 1.1060

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:58 am

EUR/USD

Most major pairs held within relatively narrow ranges this Monday, with the EUR/USD pair unable to recover firmly above the 1.1000 level, but holding around it by the end of the US session. The greenback was weighed by a series of disappointing macroeconomic releases, as the New York Empire State manufacturing index printed 6.8 in October, against the 1.0 expected, or previous 1.99. Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in September, matching expectations, after dropping 0.5% in August, although the capacity of utilization printed 75.4% less than the 75.6% expected. In Europe, the release of final September inflation readings passed unnoticed, as the figures matched expectations, with the YoY reading at 0.4%. The pair has posted a fresh over twomonth lows at the beginning of the day, down to 1.0963 early Asia, and maintains the negative tone, particularly in the short term, as the intraday advance seems merely corrective. Despite the data, and last week's comments from Yellen, odds of a US rate high remain roughly at 65% for December, and the market is not ready to give up on the greenback. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA has eased its bearish momentum above the current level, but still caps the upside a few pips above the current level, while the technical indicators have been in consolidative mode within negative territory. The immediate support is 1.0951, July's low, followed by 1.0910, the postBrexit low.

Support levels:1.0950 1.0910 1.0860

Resistance levels: 1.1025 1.1060 1.1100

See more analysis at http://hycm.com/

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Fri Oct 21, 2016 1:36 pm

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0915, a stone's throw away from the post-Brexit low of 1.0910, after the ECB's economic policy meeting. The Central Bank left rates and its monthly QE purchases of €80bn unchanged, while President Mario Draghi emphasized that they will continue with extraordinary policy accommodation as long as needed, and reiterated that "there are no signs yet of a convincing upward trend in underlying inflation." During the Q&A session, the pair jumped to its highest for the week at 1.1038, as Draghi said that they didn't discuss a QE extension, but a few minutes later, he added that they didn't discuss tapering either, putting a halt to the early rally and resulting in the pair falling back. Draghi delayed any decision for December, when the Central Bank will have more data to make more accurate decisions.

Data coming from the US was generally positive, with seasonally adjusted initial claims up to 260K in the week ending October 15th, from a revised 247K. The 4-week moving average was 251,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The Philadelphia FED Manufacturing survey for October, print 9.7, below previous 12.8 but above market's expectations of 5.3, while existing home sales surprised to the upside in September, up by 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million.

The pair bounced modestly from the mentioned low, but so far has been unable to recover above 1.0950, July's low and the immediate short term resistance, still looking quite vulnerable according to intraday technical readings and pointing to test the base of the wide long term range between 1.0840 and 1.1460. Seems unlikely the pair could break below the 1.0800/40 region without a major catalyst, but is possible that the region will be tested during the upcoming days. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart maintain the risk towards the downside, as the price was unable to settle above a still bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have barely bounced from oversold readings, without real strength.

Support levels: 1.0910 1.0870 1.0840

Resistance levels: 1.0950 1.1010 1.1055

See more analysis at hycm.com
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:30 pm

EUR/USD

The American dollar started the week moderately pressured against its major rivals, but changed course and recouped the ground lost early in the US session, following the release of a better-than-expected October preliminary manufacturing PMI. According to the report, US manufacturers recorded the strongest upturn in business conditions for 12 months, as the PMI rose from 51.5 to 53.2. Europe also seems to have started the fourth quarter in a strong fashion, as the EU composite PMI for October jumped from 52.6 to 53.7, the highest reading this year. In the EU, growth was boosted by a sharp advance in German figures, with only the French services PMI falling below expected, down to a 3-month low of 52.1. Still, the imbalance between Central Banks' economic policies, weighed mode, preventing the common currency from advancing.

The EUR/USD pair closed the day flat around 1.0880, having met selling interest on an advance up to the 1.0900 level, retaining the bearish tone seen on previous updates. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is well below a bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.0910, the immediate resistance and the level to surpass to see the pair attempting an upward extension. In the same chart, the Momentum indicator heads higher within bearish territory, but the RSI indicator has turned back south around 33 after correcting extreme oversold readings, in line with further slides, particularly on a break below 1.0840, a strong static long term support.

Support levels: 1.0840 1.0800 1.0760

Resistance levels: 1.0910 1.0950 1.1010

See more analysis at http://hycm.com/

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:23 am

EUR/USD

After falling to a fresh multi-month low of 1.0850, the EUR/USD pair bounced back mid American session, although the recovery was one again contained by selling interest around the 1.0900 figure. The pair has been trading within a tight 50 pips range ever since the week started, and in spite of some interesting headlines released this Tuesday, the pair was unable to leave it. Firstly, Germany released its IFO survey which showed that business sentiment rose to the highest in over two years in October, as the index climbed to 110.5 from previous 109.5, indicating that the German economic recovery keeps gathering momentum. The common currency, however, was unable to attract buyers after the release.

As for the US, the S&P house price index showed that that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months up by 5.1% in August when compared to a year earlier. Consumer confidence in October, on the other hand, fell to 98.6 from a previously revised 103.5, although the report remarks that "sentiment is that the economy will continue to expand in the near-term, but at a moderate pace.” Also, ECB's Draghi spoke at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, said that the central bank would certainly prefer not to have to keep interest rates "at such low levels for an excessively long time," acknowledging the cost of its ultra-loose monetary policy.

Overall, the dollar remains strong, particularly against its European rivals and the yen, despite the intraday setback triggered by the decline in consumer confidence. While the EUR/USD pair may correct higher from current levels, the bearish potential is still quite strong, with scope to break below the 1.0800 level and extend down to 1.0500/600. From a technical point of view and in the short term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is standing a few pips above a bearish 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator bounced from oversold readings and the Momentum indicator entered positive territory with a sharp upward slope, supporting some short term gains on an extension beyond 1.0910, the immediate resistance.

Support levels: 1.0840 1.0800 1.0760
Resistance levels: 1.0910 1.0950 1.1010

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Fri Oct 28, 2016 8:35 am

EUR/USD

The American dollar resumed its advance during the US session this Thursday, edging higher against all of its major rivals. The EUR/USD pair advanced intraday up to 1.0940, but ended the day below the 1.0900 level, not far from a daily low of 1.0882. The first series of US data was soft, with orders for capital goods declining by the most since February. Durable Goods Orders fell by 0.1% in September, against an advance of 0.1% expected, while the core reading, ex transportation, rose by 0.2% as expected. Jobless claims for the week ending October 21st were of 258K, slightly above expected, but holding near a multi-decade low. The dollar picked up momentum after the release of September Pending home sales that grew 1.5% when compared to August, and by 2.4% when compared to September 2015.

The US will release its first estimate of Q3 GDP on Friday, expected at 2.5% from previous quarter 1.4%, and the market will probably wait for the figure to decide whether or not to send the EUR/USD pair to fresh multi-month lows. Technically, the pair has pared gains once again a few pips below 1.0950, the 23.6% retracement of the latest bearish run between 1.1278 and 1.0850, the low set this week, preserving the dominant bearish trend. The 38.2% retracement of the same decline stands at 1.1010, and it will take a break above this last to consider an upward continuation. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is breaking below its 20 SMA, while technical indicators have turned sharply lower, with the RSI indicator already within bearish territory, all of which supports a new leg lower for this Friday.

Support levels: 1.0840 1.0800 1.0760

Resistance levels: 1.0910 1.0950 1.1010

See more analysis at hycm.com

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