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Daily global market view!

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:35 am

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair edged modestly lower this Wednesday, undermined by poor industrial output figures coming from Germany. The largest EU economy has been showing signs of economic weakness at the beginning of the third quarter, and this latest report confirms the slowdown in the industrial sector, as output during July fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.5% during July, when compared to the previous month. Majors, however, remain within their recent highs against the greenback, on diminishing hopes of a US FED September rate hike.

Early Thursday the ECB is having an economic policy meeting, although the European Central Bank is expected to remain on hold. An increase in the amount of bond-buying seems unlikely, given that falling yields in the region are shrinking the range of eligible assets. The most the ECB can do is announce an extension of the QE program beyond the March 2017 current limit, but seems unlikely that could be enough to fuel local growth and inflation. Generally speaking, Draghi is expected to offer a dovish, cautious speech that may result in some temporal weakness of the common currency.

The pair retains a positive tone according to intraday readings, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is moving around a horizontal 100 SMA, but above a now bullish 20 SMA. In the same time frame, technical indicators have corrected overbought conditions, but settled well above their mid-lines, as investors entered wait-and-see mode. The same chart shows that the price extended up to 1.1271 during the past American session, retreating from the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily decline, and the level to surpass to see further gains this Thursday. Should the market prefer the greenback, the key support is now former intraday highs around 1.1210, as a move below it would result in a return to the 1.1160 region.

Support levels: 1.1210 1. 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1275 1.1310 1.1365

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:46 am

EUR/USD

The ECB unveiled its latest economic policy decision this Thursday, with actually no changes made to the monetary policy stance and some minor adjustments in its growth´s forecast that were far from surprising the market. Draghi and Co. decided to leave rates unchanged at -0.4%, and announced that the ongoing bond-buy program will keep running until March 2017, or as long as required. The EUR/USD pair jumped to its highest in two weeks, printing 1.1326 as Draghi said that no additional stimulus was needed at this time, but later, during the press conference, he opened doors for more facilities in the future, while called for some help from European governments, hinting the need of some fiscal stimulus in the region.

The American dollar was broadly softer ahead of the announcement, but after the initial hesitation, ended up gaining ground across the board. Nevertheless the greenback remains vulnerable on speculation that the US Federal Reserve will remain on hold this month, and these intraday gains are not even close to revert the post-Payroll/ISM's losses. The EUR/USD pair 4 hours chart shows that the price is finding some support around the 1.1240/50 region, the 50% retracement of its latest slide, while also holding above all of its moving average, although technical indicators retreated from overbought readings, heading now lower within positive territory. The pair has an immediate intraday support in the 1.1210/20 region, as long as it holds above it, the downward risk will remain limited. Renewed buying interest above 1.1300, on the other hand, can see the pair retesting August high at 1.1366.

Support levels: 1.1215 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1285 1.1330 1.1365

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:56 am

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair saw little action all through this Monday, confined to a tight range within 1.1210 and 1.1270, unable to attract investors amid a scarce macroeconomic calendar. Stocks plunged in Asia and Europe, tracking Wall Street's Friday losses, and maintaining risk-averse trading as the main theme over the first half of the day. The greenback also benefited from FED's jawboning, as Atlanta president, Dennis Lockhart, called for a "serious discussion" over rates during the upcoming September meeting. Also, a monthly survey from the New York FED showed that inflation expectations jumped to 2.8 % in August, the highest reading this year, from 2.5% in July.

A recovery in American indexes interrupted USD gains after the US opening, while mid US session, FED's governor Lael Brainard said that the US Central Bank must guard against the low-growth, low-inflation environment that bedevils Europe and Japan, adding that the case for raising rates is "not compelling." Her dovish words pushed the dollar lower across the board, with the EUR/USD pair advancing up to 1.1267, its daily high.

Closing the day marginally higher, the pair continues lacking definitions from a technical point of view, but the fact that is holding above the 1.1200 mark is keeping bulls interested. The 4 hour chart shows that the price is trapped within its moving averages with no directional strength, whilst technical indicators have turned higher within bearish territory, but remain below their mid-lines, suggesting a limited upward potential at the time being. A daily descendant trend line coming from this year high of 1.1615, stands today around 1.1290, being the level to surpass to see a more sustainable recovery during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1290 1.1335 1.1370

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:36 pm

The EUR/USD pair treaded water around 1.1230 for a second consecutive day, even through the American dollar resumed its Friday's advance and edged broadly higher against most of its major rivals. Mixed messages coming from FED's officers, as all of a sudden jawboning has turned dovish, is clearly reflecting what the market knew with the previous meeting's statement that is, that sentiment over a rate hike is split within policymakers. This is reducing dramatically chances of a rate hike as soon as this September, but the greenback is poised to extend its advance anyway.

Dismal data coming from Europe failed to attract sellers, although will clearly weigh during the upcoming sessions if the dollar remains strong. German inflation persists at low levels, as August CPI printed 0.4% YoY, matching July's reading and market's expectations, while in the month, it remain flat, coming in at 0.0%. The ZEW sentiment survey, showed that business sentiment in the country has remained unchanged at 0.5, while for the whole euro area came in at 5.4, both below market's expectations. In the US, there was only a minor indicator released, the NFIB optimism index for August that resulted at 94.4 against previous 94.6.

The EUR/USD pair shed some ground at the end of the day, but holds above the 1.1200 level, and technical bias is still neutral, although the bearish potential is slowly increasing as in the 4 hours chart, the price has been unable to recover beyond a bearish 20 SMA, although in the mentioned chart, the technical indicators diverge from each other around their mid-lines, indicating to clear directional strength. The market is all about the greenback these days, and further dollar gains can push the pair below the 1.1200 mark, opening doors for a retest of last week low in the 1.1120 region. To the upside, a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.1615 is the level to surpass to deny a bearish move and see the price retesting this September high at 1.1366.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1290 1.1335 1.1370

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:27 am

EUR/USD

The American dollar edged marginally lower in the US afternoon, as local share markets traded in a moderated fashion, with Wall Street hovering around its daily opening for most of the day. The market remains in wait-and-see mode ahead of the upcoming economic policy decisions from some major Central Banks, starting this Thursday with the BOE, and ending next week with the FED and the BOJ. There were some minor releases in Europe, including August CPI for Italy and French, which remained steady at low levels, in line with the deflationary levels seen in the region. The EU as a whole, also released its Industrial Production data for July, which fell by 1.1%, missing expectations of a 0.9% decline, and leaving the year-on-year reading at -0.5%. In the US, with the MBA mortgage approvals were up to 4.2% from previous 0.9%, whilst the August export price index came in at -2.4%, in line with expectations, but the import price index fell by 0.02%.

The EUR/USD pair picked up momentum and climbed to 1.1273, surpassing its previous weekly high by a couple of pips before retreating to the current 1.1250 region. There has been no major progress from a technical point of view, given that the price remains stuck within Friday's range, and in the 4 hours chart, the price is now above its moving averages that anyway remain all together in a tight 20 pips range, a clear indication of the absence of directional strength. In the same chart, technical indicators head higher above their mid-lines, but the movement has been too shallow to be enough to confirm the rally will extend during the upcoming hours. A daily descendant trend line coming from this year high at 1.1615, stands this Thursday around 1.1300, the level to break to see the pair gaining some additional ground towards 1.1366, August monthly high.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1300 1.1335 1.1370

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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:27 am

EUR/USD

The American dollar shed ground this Monday, as commodities and equities traded with a firmer tone during the first half of the day. Trading volume, however, was low amid a Japanese holiday, situation that extended all through the day due to a scarce macroeconomic calendar. With little news around and the FED and BOJ's meetings around the corner, investors held in cautious mode. A minor economic release in the EU showed that the current account surplus in the area declined from €29.5 billion in June to €21 billion in July, putting at risk any growth's perspective in the region.

The EUR/USD pair rose up to 1.1197, but pared gains after the release of US builders´ confidence data that surprised to the upside, with the NAB housing market index up to 65 in September, the highest in almost a year. The pair spent the rest of the American session consolidating a handful of pips below the mentioned high, maintaining a weak stance from a technical perspective and in the short term, as in the 4 hours chart, the price continues developing well below its moving averages, whilst technical indicators head modestly lower within negative territory, but off their early lows set in oversold levels. German PPI and US Housing starts will gather investors attention this Tuesday, although major breakouts will wait for Wednesday, with the release of the latest FOMC economic policy decision.

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1080

Resistance levels: 1.1210 1.1245 1.1290
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:31 am

HY Markets
EUR/USD
The greenback extended its decline this Thursday, still pressured by FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged during their last meeting. Even through a December rate hike is a possibility, investors believe that policymakers are not yet ready to abandon the current accommodative stance and fully compromise with the tightening path. There were no macroeconomic releases in the EU, while in the US, data came in mixed, with weekly unemployment claims down to 252K for the week ending September 16, from the previous week's unrevised level of 260K. Existing-home sales eased up in August for the second consecutive month, declining by 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in August from a downwardly revised 5.38 million in July.
The EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.1257, a fresh weekly high, before pulling back during the US afternoon, nearing the 1.1200 ahead of Wall Street's close. There was no catalyst behind this last intraday decline, except maybe the lack of follow-through forcing speculators to take some profits out of the table. The pair maintains a neutral stance, having stalled its advance below last week's high of 1.1283, still the level to surpass to confirm more sustainable EUR gains. The 4 hours chart suggests that such scenario is becoming unlikely, as the technical indicators in the mentioned chart have turned sharply lower within positive territory from near overbought readings, whilst the price is now back around its 100 and 200 horizontal moving averages. While it is too early to call for a slide according to technical readings, further slides below the 1.1200 level will put the pair at risk of a downward extension towards the base of this week's range at 1.1120.
Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1280 1.1335
See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:04 am

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1226, range bound for a fourth consecutive week. Since late August, the pair has been trading within a well-limited 200 pips' range, with uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve decision sending investors to the side-lines. Still, the Central Bank failed to set the tone for the pair, offering a mixed tone, as while it left doors open for a December hike, it also showed no rush in tightening rates. Things in Europe were not helping the bullish case for the common currency, as September preliminary Markit PMIs showed that the services sector activity fell to a 21-month low. Manufacturing on the other hand, improved, both for the EU and Germany, but that was not enough to outpace services' reading, resulting in the EU Markit composite PMI falling to a 20 months low of 52.6 and the German reading falling to 52.7, the lowest in over a year.
For this upcoming week, the US will once again take center stage, with the release of PCE inflation, Durable Goods Orders, the final revision for the Q2 GDP figure, and at least nine FOMC members scheduled to speak.
The technical picture is neutral, as long as the price holds above 1.1120, but below 1.1366, August high. The pair continues developing within two large trend lines, with the longest being the ascendant one, coming from November 2015 low of 1.0505, and around 1.1080/90 for the upcoming days. As for the descendant trend line, it began at 1.1615, May 2016 high, and should offer some resistance if reached, currently around 1.1280. In the daily chart the price is above the moving averages, but the indicators remain all together and without directional strength, reflecting the absence of direction, while technical indicators hold within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a moderate bullish tone, as the price is above its moving averages, and technical indicators in positive territory, although losing upward strength.
Support levels: 1.1190 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1250 1.1280 1.1335

See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:41 am

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair enjoyed some short term demand, rallying up to 1.1278 on Monday, before better-than-expected US housing data gave investors to reject the advance around a major static resistance level. As usual lately the week started in slow motion, with most majors trading in quite limited intraday ranges. New Home sales in the US slipped by less than expected in August, running at a 609,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, down by 7.6% on the month when compared to July, against expectations of a 8.6% decline. Also, helping the greenback were comments from FED's Lacker, an usual hawk, who said that the case for a December hike is strong. In the EU, Germany released its IFO survey showing that the business climate rose sharply in September, to 109.5 from 106.2 in August, with surged in both the current assessment and the expectations components.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it continued trading within its latest range, stalling its recovery around a major resistance level, a daily descendant trend line coming from this year high at 1.1615. The pair also has multiple intraday highs and lows around the 1.1280 region, and as long as the price remains below it, the upward potential will remain limited. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart are starting to show some divergences, as while the price remains above a sharply bullish 20 SMA that already advanced above the 100 SMA, the Momentum indicator heads south towards its mid-line, while the RSI indicator retreats from near overbought readings. Additional declines below 1.1225 will increase the risk of a bearish continuation for this Tuesday, with 1.1160 as a probable bearish target should the dollar strengthen steadily.
Support levels: 1.1225 1.1190 1.1160
Resistance levels: 1.1280 1.1335 1.1365
See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en/markets/daily-outlook
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Re: Daily global market view!

Postby HY Markets » Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:33 am

HY Markets
EUR/USD
Trading was choppy around the EUR/USD pair this Wednesday, as investors were waiting for speeches from both, ECB's Draghi and FED's Yellen. None of them, however, broke fresh ground when it comes to economic policies, leaving the pair marginally lower, down for a second consecutive day. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, spoke before the House Panel on Bank Supervision, and her speech was focused on banking supervision and regulations. When asked about rates, she just mentioned that there is "no fixed timetable for rising rates." As for Mario Draghi, he spoke about the current developments in the euro area, in Berlin, defending the ongoing Central Bank's policies, stating also that negative rates are not to blame for the woes of the banking sector. In the macroeconomic front, the US released its Durable Goods Orders for August, which came in flat, compared to the previous month, at 0.0%. Bad news within the report showed that shipments of capital equipment declined for a fourth straight month, which will probably result in a downward revision of Q3 GDP estimates.
From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair continues making little progress this week, although the upward momentum seen last week keeps fading, as the pair posted a lower low daily basis. The 4 hours chart shows that the price was unable to recover above its moving averages, although the indicators remain mostly horizontal and confined within a 30 pips range, reflecting the absence of a clear trend, while the Momentum indicator in the mentioned time frame heads south below its 100 level and the RSI indicator consolidates around 47, leaning the scale towards the downside. Renewed selling interest below 1.1190, could see the pair extending its decline down to 1.1120 during the upcoming sessions, a strong static support.
Support levels: 1.1190 1.1160 1.1120
Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1335
See more analysis at https://www.hycm.com/en
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