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daily analysis and outlook for all by acfx.com

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daily analysis and outlook for all by acfx.com

Postby salehahmed » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:18 pm

March 14th, 2012
Currencies
EUR/USD The dollar strengthened against most of its major counterparts after Federal Reserve policy makers raised their assessment of the U.S. economy and refrained from additional monetary easing.
The U.S. currency added 0.1 percent against the euro to $1.3074.


March 14th, 2012
USD/JPY The yen slid to an 11-month low versus the greenback as the yield spread between two-year debt in the U.S. debt and Japan to widened to the most since July, making dollar-based assets more attractive. The yen also dropped as Asian stocks extended a global rally, damping demand for the lower-yielding currency.
The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 83.17 yen as of 1:49 p.m. in Tokyo, after reaching 83.21, the strongest level since April 18.


March 14th, 2012
Commodities
Oil traded near the highest price in two days in New York as investors speculated fuel demand may increase amid signs the U.S. economy is strengthening.

Crude for April delivery was at $106.83 a barrel, up 12 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:44 p.m. Singapore time.




March 14th, 2012
Gold regained some strength on Wednesday on bargain hunting after prices dropped about 2 percent in the previous session, but a firmer U.S. dollar is likely to cap gains after the Federal Reserve vowed to keep interest rates low until 2014.
Gold added $1.21 to $1,675.96 an ounce by 0330 GMT after falling to a low of $1,661.99 on Tuesday, its weakest since late January. Gold rose to a record of around $1,920 in September on fears the euro debt crisis could stall global growth.
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Re: daily analysis and outlook for all by acfx.com

Postby salehahmed » Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:46 am

March 21th, 2012

Currencies

• EUR/USD. The euro advanced against the dollar and reached a four-month high versus the yen after Greece won parliamentary approval for a new international bailout, boosting demand for European assets.
• The 17-nation currency rose against most major peers before reports tomorrow forecast to show an expansion of services and factory output in Germany, Europe’s largest economy. The dollar weakened before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke tells Congress that financial strains in Europe have eased, according to testimony prepared for delivery today. Demand for the yen was limited before data tomorrow projected to show Japanese exports declined for a fifth month. The European Central Bank's (ECB) announcement that it put its bond-buying program on hold last week also encouraged traders to cover bets against the single currency.
http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-117/

• USD/CAD pair spiked quite nicely during the Tuesday session as the Saudis announced that they are able to increase output in the oil markets to help contain pricing. The Canadian dollar tends to follow the value of oil. By the end of the day however, we saw half of those gains given back.

Commodities

• Oil in NYMEX gained after data showed U.S. crude supplies shrank by 1.4 million barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The Energy Department may say today that inventories climbed by 2.2 million barrels.

Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday after dropping nearly 1 percent in the previous
session, as a slightly weaker dollar came to the aid of buyers, while sluggish physical demand and an improving U.S. economic outlook capped gains.

The dollar edged down 0.3 percent against a basket of currencies. A cheaper USD makes dollar-priced commodities, including gold, more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Spot gold edged up 0.3 percent to $1,655.14 an ounce by 0241 GMT. U.S. gold gained half a percent to $1,655.40.
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Re: daily analysis and outlook for all by acfx.com

Postby salehahmed » Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:32 am

March 23th, 2012
Currencies

EUR/USD rose up after Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Bernanke said the U.S. economy is operating below its level prior to the financial crisis, and that increased household spending is needed to sustain the expansion.
Consumer spending is not recovered, it’s still quite weak relative to where it was before the crisis,” Bernanke said yesterday in his speech going in the history of the Fed that he plans to deliver at George Washington University. “In terms of debt and consumption and so on we’re still way low relative to the patterns before.”
Purchases of new homes in the U.S. probably rose in February to the highest level of the year.
Sales, tabulated when contracts are signed, climbed 1.3 % to a 325,000 annual pace, the fastest since December 2010. That would mark the 5th gain in six months.
Existing-home purchases eased to a 4.59 million annual rate last month from a 4.63 million pace in January, the National Association of Realtors reported this week. Even with the decline, January and February sales marked the strongest start to a year since 2007.

USD/CAD Canadian Dollar had weakened against US Dollar for the first time in 2 weeks. It declined for a 3rd day as a report showed January retail sales grew at less than a third of the rate economists predicted. U.S. equities, crude oil and copper fell as the appetite for higher-yielding assets waned.

Canada’s dollar depreciated after reports on manufacturing in Europe and China fueled concern that global growth was slowing, spurring demand for the safest of assets
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Re: daily analysis and outlook for all by acfx.com

Postby salehahmed » Tue May 08, 2012 12:42 pm

EUR/USD
Trend
The Swing strategy. Short.
The Alligator strategy. Short.
Warning
News based large weekend gap down. A potential positive divergence is forming.
Overview
Swing Strategy:The The 1st May Lower higher has now been confirmed by this yesterday’s gap down and breach of the 16th April low. A gap fill and further downside momentum over the next few days would not be unexpected.
Alligator Strategy:
The Alligator indicator has turned from a neutral to a short bias. Price extended from the deferred MA’s.
Possible range
The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 91 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.2959 and 1.3141.
Long scenario
 Conservative long above 1.3283 being the last daily fractal high.
 Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s.
Short scenario
 Conservative short beneath 1.3157 is in play. Further shorts neutral.
 Aggressive short pullbacks into the deferred MA’s.

http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-140/
salehahmed
 
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