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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:44 pm

FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING AND US HOUSE-MARKET DATA AHEAD


EUR/USD
Forex News: The main trend Friday was bearish, partially generated by a light overbought state of the market. There were no important economic releases and price action was relatively smooth.

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Technical Outlook
Price failed to finish the trading day below 1.3585 and the bulls have been showing some pressure lately, stopping the bearish momentum at 1.3520. However, neither bulls nor bears are in clear control and today’s direction will be determined by price behavior around the current level of interest (1.3585). A bearish break will make 1.3520 the next target while a bounce higher will most likely take the pair back into 1.3640 resistance zone.

Fundamental Outlook
At 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced but no change is expected from the previous value of 49.6; half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to change from 52.3 to 52.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

The United States will release at 2:00 pm GMT the Existing Home Sales numbers which are expected to increase from 4.65M to 4.74M. The indicator has a slightly greater importance than the New Home Sales (will be released a day after) because existing homes represent the majority of total sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
Friday the pair retraced lower, a normal behavior, considering the extended move upwards and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index; however, the bears didn’t manage to break important levels.

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Technical Outlook
The move south seen Friday is considered just a retracement, not a reversal; a good place for price to start moving upwards again is 1.6996 which was previous resistance and now may become support. A bearish break of the mentioned level would indicate that high prices become harder and harder for bulls to sustain and would weaken the current uptrend, making 1.6920 the next medium-term destination. Resistance now sits at 1.7063.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic indicators today and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US data mentioned above.


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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Wednesday

Postby GDMFX » Wed Jun 25, 2014 12:53 pm

FOREX NEWS: EURO CONFINED IN A RANGE, POUND WEAKENED BY DOVISH COMMENTS


EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had another difficult to trade day as price first climbed and then dropped below the opening price on the back of better than expected US economic data. Currently the support at 1.3585 is being re-tested from above but the pair is in a ranging state.

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Technical Outlook
Price action continues to trade sideways and all moves in one direction are quickly reversed. The current level of 1.3585 is important for short term movement and a break would open the door for additional sellers to enter the market and to take the pair into the more important support located at 1.3520. Minor resistance sits at 1.3640 – 1.3645 but the market is ranging and we are neutral until an important level is breached.

Fundamental Outlook
Two important US events represent today’s headlines: at 12:30 pm GMT the Durable Goods Orders are announced with a negative change anticipated, from the previous 0.6% to -0.1%. At the same time the Final version of the Gross Domestic is released and although its impact is lower than the Advance GDP, volatility can still be generated as the GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge. The expected change is -1.7%while the previous was -1.0%. Lower numbers for either indicator can determine a weakening of the US Dollar.


GBP/USD
The Pound weakened throughout the day against the US Dollar as Mark Carney showed a dovish attitude towards a potential rate hike and dampened any speculation that BOE will raise rates sooner than anticipated.

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Technical Outlook
The potential support level at 1.6996 was easily broken yesterday on the back of Pound weakness generated by Carney’s comments and now it seems like the pair is headed for 1.6920 support. Before that happens, a re-test of 1.6996 is very probable. If this re-test is successful and price bounces lower, the chances of a reversal will increase and resistance will be located at 1.6996 once again. Throughout the day keep an eye for an oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index on the four-hour chart.

Fundamental Outlook
Today the United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic data so price action will be mainly influenced by the technical side and by the US events mentioned above.


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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Thursday

Postby GDMFX » Thu Jun 26, 2014 12:46 pm

FOREX NEWS: CARNEY’S SPEECH – DOVISH OR HAWKISH?


EUR/USD
Forex News: The American currency weakened yesterday against its counterparts as disappointing values were posted for both the Durable Goods Orders and the Gross Domestic Product. As a result the pair touched resistance at 1.3640 and the day was controlled by the bulls.

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Technical Outlook
The pair continues to move extremely slowly compared to its normal behavior and although yesterday the bulls showed clear signs of dominance, future direction is uncertain. The current level of resistance may push price lower or it may bring in more buyers if a break is recorded, so today’s price action revolves around a “bounce or break” scenario. Next resistance is located at 1.3680 while support sits at the uptrend line, followed by 1.3585.

Fundamental Outlook
Today lacks major announcements for both the Euro and the US Dollar and the pair’s direction will be mostly affected by technical factors.


GBP/USD
US Dollar weakness was seen against the Pound as well and the pair made a push for 1.6996. However, the bulls lacked the necessary strength to break resistance and price remained below it.

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Technical Outlook
At the moment we are seeing rejection at 1.6996 (1.7000) resistance and it seems like the bulls failed to renew the uptrend. This suggests that moves lower may follow and that 1.6920 support might be the next destination. A climb above 1.7000 will invalidate this scenario but Mark Carney’s speech will be the day’s headline and will probably have a strong impact on price action.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 9:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Financial Stability Report which contains an assessment of potential risks to the current financial system and an in-depth analysis regarding financial stability in the UK. At the same time, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference and will deliver a speech focused on the mentioned Report. His attitude will most likely have a great impact on the Pound and will be the day’s main market mover.


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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Friday

Postby GDMFX » Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:50 am

FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION NUMBERS MAY PUT AN END TO RANGING MOVEMENT


EUR/USD
Forex News: The US Dollar continued to weaken yesterday against its major counterparts and the Euro was no exception; after an unsuccessful attempt to break resistance, price moved south to touch 1.3585 support but finished the day above it.

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Technical Outlook
The pair is still ranging, without choosing a direction and this gives greater importance to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and to the support located at 1.3585. We anticipate a bounce higher and a move back above the uptrend line but today’s important financial data will be the determining factor.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the day is the German Consumer Price Index which is released at 12:00 pm GMT and anticipated to change from the previous -0.1% to 0.2%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro as German inflation accounts for a big part of European inflation.


GBP/USD
Mark Carney’s speech regarding the Financial Stability Report was perceived as hawkish by market participants and the pair climbed yesterday above 1.7000.

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Technical Outlook
At the moment the pair looks like it’s making an attempt to touch 1.7063 once again. The Pound was strengthened by more speculation about a rate hike which may come before the end of the year and the greenback is weakened by a worse than expected GDP so things look bullish and we anticipate a touch of the mentioned level. First support is located at 1.6996 (1.7000), followed by 1.6920.

Fundamental Outlook
United Kingdom’s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product will be announced today at 8:30 am GMT. Although the Final version is the last and tends to have a milder impact on price action compared to the Advance version, we can still expect sharp moves at the time of the release, especially if the actual figure will differ from analysts’ prediction of 0.8%. Since this is the main gauge of an economy’s performance, higher values usually strengthen the Pound and the opposite is true for lower numbers.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Monday

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:28 pm

FOREX NEWS: EURO ZONE INFLATION IN THE SPOTLIGHT ONCE AGAIN


EUR/USD
Forex News: The bulls controlled most of Friday’s trading session on the back of a slightly better than anticipated value of the German Consumer Price Index. However, the pair is still trading in a range and resistance is not clearly broken.

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Technical Outlook
Last week’s price action increases dramatically the chances of a breakout which will most likely occur this week, but the direction is hard to predict. Price just bounced between 1.3585 support and 1.3640 resistance and neither bulls nor bears made clear attempts to take control of direction. The encounter with resistance seen Friday may generate a bounce lower and a potential break of the uptrend line but if the pair continues upwards, it will encounter strong resistance at 1.3675.

Fundamental Outlook
At 9:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to increase from 0.5% to 0.6%. If this comes true (or if higher numbers are posted), the Euro will most likely strengthen against the US Dollar and we will have a bullish day.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Pending Home Sales are announced, showing the change in the number of houses which still await the closing transaction. The forecast is for an increase from 0.4% to 1.4%, a fact which would be considered beneficial for the greenback.

GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Final version of the Gross Domestic Product came out Friday with the anticipated value of 0.8%, a fact which generated mixed price action and overall a ranging day.\

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Technical Outlook
Resistance sits at 1.7063 but the bulls seem to lack the needed power to break it and to renew the uptrend. For today’s price action we expect more ranging movement, with price confined between the support at 1.6996 (1.7000) and the resistance just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major indicator releases today and the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by American data and by the technical aspect.




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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Postby GDMFX » Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:53 pm

FOREX NEWS: OPENING THE WEEK WITH RANGING PRICE ACTION


EUR/USD
Forex News: Friday the bears continued to take price lower and touched support at 1.3585 but the day lacked volatility, mostly due to the fact that the United States celebrated Independence Day and US banks were closed.

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Technical Outlook
Today we are faced with a bounce-or-break scenario and the support at 1.3585 plays the main role. A bearish break would set the stage for a touch of the more important support located at 1.3520 but if sellers cannot maintain the momentum seen last week, we are likely to see a move back up into the zone around 1.3640. The Relative Strength Index is moving close to the 30 level which indicates an oversold market and slightly increases the chances of a bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook
The day lacks major economic releases and the only notable indicator is the German Industrial Production scheduled at 6:00 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in industrial output but it is considered to have low impact on the Euro; however, higher numbers than the anticipated 0.3% usually strengthen the single currency.


GBP/USD
The Pair had a ranging day Friday but the bulls managed to surpass the previous high by a few pips before price started to move south. No major developments took place and Independence Day generated low trading volume.

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Technical Outlook
We consider there’s a high chance of another encounter today with the high located at 1.7180 but a real break is less likely to occur. To the down side, the first major support is located at 1.7095 but such a distance is too much to travel on a Monday that lacks major fundamental announcements. We anticipate a ranging day, with slow price action.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for today so price direction will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect.
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