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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 30 2013

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 30 2013

Postby alayoua » Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:30 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 30 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

Fed to leave rates unchanged in January and probably for the rest of the year

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is expected to be uneventful this month, following the FOMC’s announcement of open ended QE4 in December which would be finalized only when the unemployment rate falls below 6.5% or inflation accelerates above 2.5%. The lack of action would also be justified by the fact that “the fundamental picture remains relatively unchanged,” as Richard C. Lee points out. The analyst acknowledges that “pockets of the economy have improved over the last quarter” but nevertheless he believes that “the Federal Reserve will likely remain steadfast in its current policy direction for much of 2013.” Other analysts polled for the special forecast report agree with this opinion. Their projections are quite similar, with Yohay Elam suggesting that “rates will probably remain low until 2015, and less QE isn’t due until 2014,” Albero Muñoz predicting that “it’s not very likely that we have any change in monetary policy through 2013″ and Ilian Yotov saying that “the Fed will stay the course at its January meeting and quite possibly for the rest of the year.”

According to Yohay Elam the FOMC will rather concentrate on the economic outlook and it “could acknowledge the ongoing slow recovery and the lower level of political uncertainty as positive factors, but without any hint on policy change anytime soon.” Valeria Bednarik emphasizes however that if the members consider withdrawing QE gradually towards the end of the year we could expect “strong risk aversion rallies during the announcement, with dollar favored across the board.” The FOMC will release its monetary policy statement on January 30 at 19:15 GMT.



Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-30 10:00 GMT | E.M.U Consumer Confidence (Jan)
2013-01-30 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)Preliminar
2013-01-30 19:15 GMT | United States. US Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-01-30 20:00 GMT | Australia. NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Forex News
2013-01-30 06:46 GMT | EUR/USD remains capped by 1.3500
2013-01-30 05:37 GMT | GBP/USD capped underneath 1.5750
2013-01-30 04:24 GMT | Yen still weakest against all others
2013-01-30 01:54 GMT | AUD/JPY cracks 95.00 major resistance



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34951 | LOW: 1.3482 | BID: 1.34864 | ASK: 1.34869 | CHANGE: -0.04% |TIME: 08 : 50:39

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: A buying interest pushed the Euro on the local high’s yesterday and determine positive bias in near term perspective. Successful attack to the 1.3498 (R1) price level might encourage uptrend formation with possible intraday targets at 1.3511 (R2) and 1.3525 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Clearance of next support level at 1.3477 (S1) might significantly stimulate Bearish oriented traders. Possible price devaluation would then be targeting supportive measures at 1.3464 (S2) and 1.3449 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3498, 1.3511, 1.3525
Support Levels: 1.3477, 1.3464, 1.3449

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GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.57641 | LOW: 1.57414 | BID: 1.57497 | ASK: 1.57506 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 08 : 50:40

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: The GBPUSD is now losing upside momentum after the former strength. Next resistance ahead is seen above the yesterday high at 1.5774 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.5793 (R2) and 1.5813 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 1.5728 (S1) might create negative traders sentiment. We expect that our intraday target at 1.5707 (S2) and 1.5685 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.

Resistance Levels: 1.5774, 1.5793, 1.5813
Support Levels: 1.5728, 1.5707, 1.5685

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USDJPY

HIGH: 91.031 | LOW: 90.661 | BID: 90.898 | ASK: 90.904 | CHANGE: 0.2% | TIME: 08 : 50:41

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 91.03 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 91.22 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect final intraday resistive barrier at 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any penetration below our support level at 90.77 (S1) might create more scope for the USDJPY weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 90.56 (S2) and 90.36 (S3) as next possible targets in such scenario.

Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42
Support Levels: 90.77, 90.56, 90.36

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,
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alayoua
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