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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013

Postby alayoua » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:45 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013

FOMC Minutes: Some Fed officials consider eventual QE pullback
Minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting showed several officials think the bank should be prepared to vary the pace of its asset purchases, depending on how the economy performs and its analysis of the costs and benefits of the program. As shown by the minutes, officials worried that the Fed ultra-loose policy could lead to instability in financial markets. The Fed plans to evaluate how the programs are doing at its next meeting March 19 and 20 where officials will consider major changes to its quantitative easing program. Some FOMC members consider the Fed might have to taper or even end its bond-buying programs before reaching the current goal of a substantial improvement in the labor market. However, others officials argued that ending QE too soon would damage the economy.

“A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred,” the minutes said. During the meeting, several Fed officials expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk taking by investors due to the Fed’s accommodative policy. Officials even discussed the idea for the Fed to replace asset purchases with a promise not to sell assets for a longer period than currently envisioned. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented at the January meeting, citing concerns about financial stability. The Fed will meet next on March 19-20.
http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-february-21-2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-21 08:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Services PMI (Feb)
2013-02-21 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-02-21 13:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-21 15:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-21 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD pounded below 1.5200
2013-02-21 05:43 GMT | USD, JPY enjoy follow through in Asia
2013-02-21 04:58 GMT | USD/JPY below 93.50 on more BoJ-related jawboning
2013-02-21 03:58 GMT | GBP/JPY selling off to fresh Feb lows

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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EURUSD

HIGH: 1.32892 | LOW: 1.32354 | BID: 1.32380 | ASK: 1.32389 | CHANGE: -0.34% | TIME: 08 : 00:18

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Excessive losses provided yesterday clearly determined medium-term negative bias though rise above the resistance at 1.3306 (R1) might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.3332 (R2). Further market increase above it would face final resistive structure at 1.3356 (R3). Downwards scenario: Technically situation is clear. Fresh low at 1.3235 (S1) offers a key supportive barrier on the way of downtrend development. A dip below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3213 (S2) and 1.3190 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3306, 1.3332, 1.3356
Support Levels: 1.3235, 1.3213, 1.3190

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GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.52395 | LOW: 1.51312 | BID: 1.51494 | ASK: 1.51505 | CHANGE: -0.55% | TIME: 08 : 00:19

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: New portion of macroeconomic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Our resistances at 1.5303 (R2) and 1.5355 (R3) could be exposed in case of possible recovery action. But first, price is required to overcome our key resistive barrier at 1.5250 (R1). Downwards scenario: Resuming of negative tendency might occur below the key support level at 1.5131 (S1). Break here would open road towards to next supportive measure at 1.5081 (S2) and final bastion could be found at 1.5031 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5303, 1.5355, 1.5250
Support Levels: 1.5131, 1.5081, 1.5031

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USDJPY

HIGH: 93.862 | LOW: 93.351 | BID: 93.427 | ASK: 93.432 | CHANGE: -0.16% | TIME: 08 : 00:20

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: In current price setup it is hard to determine prevailing market direction. Our next resistance stays at 93.63 (R1). Market expansion towards to next targets at 93.77 (R2) and 93.91 (R3) looks reasonable if the price manages to overcome it. Downwards scenario: Pair has been trading sideways. Depreciation below the support at 93.29 (S1) level might likely push the pair lower and enable our interim target at 93.15 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to psychological support at 93.00 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.63, 93.77, 93.91
Support Levels: 93.29, 93.15, 93.00

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd
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alayoua
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