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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 30 2013

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 30 2013

Postby alayoua » Tue Apr 30, 2013 9:33 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 30 2013

The Fed will most likely keep its policy unchanged

On Monday, global core bonds easily recouped an early session dip triggered by the formation of an Italian government, which received the confidence of parliament yesterday. Furthermore, equities kept a positive tone and closed with moderate gains. However, core bonds ignored equities and traded sideways in a tight range, once initial losses were recouped. By the end of trading, German yields were less than 1 bp from Friday’s close. US yields were virtually unchanged too, with the exception of the 30-yr (+ 1.7 bps).

In other news, inflation figures of Germany, Belgium and Spain showed a sharp slowing, while the EU confidence data were a bit weaker than expected. They were bond supportive, but we didn’t see a reaction upon publication. US eco data (see news section) were largely ignored. Bond auctions in Italy and Belgium went well (see below).
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/30042013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-30 12:30 GMT : CAD.Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Feb)
2013-04-30 13:45 GMT : USA.Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Apr)
2013-04-30 14:00 GMT : USA.Consumer Confidence (Apr)
2013-04-30 22:30 GMT : AUS.AiG Performance of Mfg Index (Apr)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-30 07:09 GMT : EUR/USD dips to 1.3075/80 on Spanish GDP
2013-04-30 07:01 GMT : USD/CHF erases losses after German retail sales
2013-04-30 06:45 GMT : USD/JPY at lows of 97.70 after jump to 98.13 high
2013-04-30 06:31 GMT : GBP/USD below 1.5500 ahead of UK data

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31205 LOW 1.30668 BID 1.30732 ASK 1.30737 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 10 : 57:22

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.3103 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.3121(R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.3135 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 1.3076 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 1.3062 (S2) and 1.3045 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3121, 1.3135
Support Levels: 1.3076, 1.3062, 1.3045

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55066 LOW 1.54681 BID 1.54906 ASK 1.54909 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 10 : 57:23

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY :
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bullish oriented. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5534 (R1) would enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.5560 (R2) and 1.5583 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.5469 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5433 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.5401 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5534, 1.5560, 1.5583
Support Levels: 1.5469, 1.5433, 1.5401

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USDJPY :
HIGH 98.125 LOW 97.673 BID 97.814 ASK 97.816 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 10 : 57:23

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OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 92.02 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 98.16 (R2) and 98.30 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 97.59 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 97.42 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 97.27 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.02, 98.16, 98.30
Support Levels: 97.59, 97.42, 97.27

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,
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