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Signals by Capital Street FX

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:49 am

EURUSD Crawls Back from Multi-month Lows – Will the Slide Resume?

The euro rose against the U.S dollar on Monday. EURUSD snapped a four-day losing streak to pull back from the lowest level in the last six and a half months at $1.08584, logged on Friday. The recovery in the euro today came after a string of upbeat data from key Eurozone countries and composite data fro the EU as a whole.

Research group Markit on Monday reported Eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index for October accelerated at the fastest pace since the beginning of 2016. The gauge which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors, took off to a ten-month high at 53.7 in the current month, from September’s reading of 52.6.

Particularly, manufacturing PMI for the region rose to a 30-month high at 53.3, while the services PMI jumped to the highest level since April 2016 at 53.5. All data releases beat expectations by analysts.

Earlier Monday, Markit reported that its manufacturing PMI reading for Germany – Europe’s largest economy – rose to 55.1 in October from 54.3 the previous month, beating forecasts which called for an unchanged reading. Not only did the manufacturing index hit a 33-month high, the German services PMI also climbed to a 3-month high at 54.1 this month, which topped expectations for an uptick to 51.5.

Markit also reported that France’s manufacturing PMI rose to 51.3 in October from 49.7 in the month before. However, the French services PMI was an exception and it slipped to 52.1 this month from 53.3.

In general, the Eurozone economy continued to prove to be resilient, which dampened the possibility that the European Central Bank will extend its stimulus program in December – three months before quantitative easing is currently set to expire.

The single currency fell to near seven-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday based on perceptions of a potential divergence between monetary policies of the ECB and the U.S Federal Reserve. While the Fed is highly expected to raise its rate by the end of this year, investors expect that the ECB’s buying-asset program will not end before its scheduled expiry. President Mario Draghi indicated last week that the mentioned program would not be ended abruptly without being tapered first and the bank has not discussed any tapering plan in its October meeting.

Draghi will be speaking at the German Institute for Economic Research, in Berlin on Tuesday, but before that, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley and Federal Bank of St. Louis’s James Bullard will deliver separate speeches later today.

EURUSD breached another key Fibonacci retracement level after breaking below the 38.2% and 50.0% levels. The pair broke through the 61.8% handle at 1.09250 on Friday and the market entered the oversold zone. Therefore, a rally fueled by upbeat data today may be considered as a correction. With the two MAs hovering above the price action, the pair may reverse lower to test the key support at 1.08000.

EURUSD Trade suggestion
Sell Stop at 1.08600, Take profit at 1.08000, Stop loss at 1.08900
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:30 pm

USD /CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 16:00 24/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 24/10/2016

Sell at 0.99290
Take profit at 0.99080
Stop loss at 0.99550
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:36 pm

USDCAD Rallies As Markets Bet On December Fed Rate Hike

USDCAD rose to the highest level since March 16th at 1.33958 on Monday, extending the rally to a fourth straight trading day.

The Canadian dollar lost the support extended via the oil price, as oil stumbled following the Iraqi oil minister’s comments on Sunday that the nation should be exempted from production cuts proposed by the OPEC. The U.S dollar strengthened after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard’s hawkish remarks on interest rates.

Speaking on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a conference on Monday, Bullard reinforced his previous comments by reiterating the necessity of a U.S rate hike this year.

The case for raising interest rates was strengthened as a report from Markit indicated that U.S. Manufacturing activity hit the highest level in a year this month with the index at 53.2, beating forecasts of a slight increase to 51.6.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.34000, Take profit at 1.34430, Stop loss at 1.33550
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:01 am

Third-Quarter GDP Reports in Focus, Will U.S Dollar Sustain Its Strength Next Week?

The U.S dollar was a star last week, as the monetary policy divergence between the U.S Federal Reserve and other major central banks sent the greenback higher against most of its peers.

The dollar strengthened after New York Fed President William Dudley on Wednesday said that the U.S. central bank will likely raise interest rates later this year if the economy remains on its current trajectory. Furthermore, expectations that Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. presidential election grew strongly after her victory in the third and final U.S presidential debate. This also added to the view that a December rate hike is likely. Fed will hold its next meeting in November. Still, a rate hike ahead of the presidential election is considered as unlikely.

Expectations for higher rates typically boost the dollar by making it more attractive to yield seeking investors. However, it would be misjudged if we didn’t mention the slump of the euro when it comes to the greenback’s strength.

The euro plunged sharply on Friday following comments by the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the quantitative easing program would not end before March 2017. President Draghi stated that the central bank had not discuss about tapering its 1.7 trillion euro ($1.86 trillion) asset-buying program, regarding a slow rise in inflation and risks from foreign weak demand.

A string of data for the Euro area will be released next week. The single currency will start its volatility on Monday with Markit flash PMIs for key Eurozone countries (Germany and France) as well as for the whole region. The German Ifo survey out on Tuesday is expected to show a slight improvement in the current conditions index. More economic data for the 28-nation bloc will follow on Friday with the Eurozone’s economic sentiment index and preliminary German inflation numbers.

Following a conference following the policy reviews last Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi will have another speech about “Stability, Equality and Monetary Policy” on Tuesday.

In the U.S, the most important statistic is probably the release of third quarter growth on Friday. However, other economic parameters such as durable goods orders, housing data and business surveys will keep traders occupied until the key Friday’s Advance GDP, which is forecast to post at the highest since the last quarter of 2014.

If the preliminary third quarter GDP data meets economists’ expectation of a substantial growth rate of 2.5% in the third quarter, the US economy will have a well performance during the second half of the year given the weakness that occurred during the first six months of 2016. Strong economic growth and an improving labor market will give the Fed fewer reasons to delay a rate increase in December.

The Pound ended last week higher versus the U.S dollar thanks to the U.K inflation data, which was reported to have jumped to its highest in nearly two years.

Data from the Office for National Statistics reported that U.K consumer prices added 1% in September compared to the same month a year ago, following a 0.6% rise in the year to August. The reading outstripped expectations of a rise to 0.9%, and reached the 1% rate for the first time since November 2014. ONS said it did not see explicit evidence of the pound’s weakness in consumer-price changes, but it is affecting producer prices as a cheaper local currency pushes up the price of imported goods in the UK.

The rise in the U.K’s inflationary pressures may drive the Bank of England away from its plan to cut rates in order to protect the economy from headwinds created by the departure of the U.K from the single market.

For next week, like the U.S., the U.K. will also announce its preliminary growth estimate for the third quarter, which is due on Thursday. The data will be of more importance than usual as they are for the three months immediately following the Brexit referendum on June 23. . Growth is expected to slow to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September from the previous quarter’s 0.7% rate. Consensus data suggested that the impact of Brexit may not be felt much, as strong consumer spending and a weaker pound have kept the UK economy in a better mood than initially expected . A strong number would damp the need for further easing by the BOE.

The Australian dollar was almost unchanged compared to the level at the start of last week after the market close on Friday. The Aussie stayed strong on the first half of the week through October 21st after the release of the minutes from the RBA’s last meeting. According to the minutes, economic expansion is forecast to continue and stimulate job creation which will eventually result in higher wages and reasonable inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates unchanged at 1.5% in its October meeting and is widely expected to temporarily pause its rate cut plans at its next meeting on November 1st.

However, the bullish sentiment left the Aussie on Thursday after jobs data showed an unexpected decline in the labour market. In early Asian trading hours, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that job creation fell by 9,800 in Australia in September, completely contrasting with forecasts by economists which had called for an increase of 15,200 new jobs added last month.

The jobless rate fell to 5.6% from a revised 5.7% in August as a result of the fact that fewer people participated in the labor force. According to the report, Australia’s participation rate for September dropped from 64.7% to 64.5%, the lowest level in almost two years.

Next week, AUD investors will put their focus on the inflation data due on Wednesday as it could determine whether the Reserve Bank of Australia decides to cut rates anytime soon. CPI in the third quarter is expected to pick up slightly to 0.5% on a quarterly basis and to 1.1% on a yearly basis.

The New Zealand dollar also traded lower against the greenback last week. However, the Kiwi outperformed its Australian counterpart due to upbeat inflation and consumer prices. Next week will be quiet for the currency as only New Zealand’s trade balance is on the calendar.

Canadian dollar plunged the most in the trio of commodity currencies. Retail sales continued to decline while consumer prices grew less than expected. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz stated that the central bank had “actively” discussed the possibility of injecting more stimulus into the economy.

The Bank of Canada decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, but further stimulus were taken consideration in order to “speed up the return of the economy to full capacity”, Poloz said.

With the lack of Canadian data next week, oil will continue to be a key driver of the currency’s flows.
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:06 am

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Daily Report on October 25, 2016

The U.S dollar held near eight-month highs amid mounting speculations that the U.S interest rate will be raised by December. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans on Monday said if the economy continued to grow in line with forecast, it would be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to raise rates three times by the end of 2017.

The Chicago Fed chief was optimism about the U.S. labor market, expecting for continued hiring which could push the unemployment rate down to as low as 4.5 percent without triggering undue inflation. Earlier on Monday, research group Markit reported the U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for October rose to the highest since the start of this year. The gauge for manufacturing activity in the world’s biggest economy reached 53.2 in this month, beating forecast and cementing bets the Fed will make a move on rates in December.

The Loonie pared earlier losses on late Monday as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled a deferral in cutting rate, even after the country’s disappointing economic data lately. Given the uneven growth in different parts of Canada, Poloz reiterated the central bank considered cutting interest rates but said further stimulus is complicated. Any decision to cut interest rates further will not be unleashed in the next 18 months, the BOC Governor said.

The comments that spurred speculation monetary policy would stay on hold, lifted Canada’s dollar from a seven-month low set earlier on Monday. However, the currency dropped again as in an e-mailed statement following the testimony, Poloz said the comments weren’t a reference to monetary policy.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan deepened the monetary policy divergence between the U.S central bank and its counterparts by stating that the SNB could cut its negative interest rates even more if needed as there is still room for further stimulus.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

The U.S dollar has been on a rise against the Japanese Yen since the pair hit over one-week low at 103.159 last Wednesday. After breaking above the two moving averages from below, the pair has turned these two MAs into its dynamic support. Additionally, we have received signals of going long, as the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MAs, while ADX rebounded from line 20. However, the resistance at 23.6% is within the sight may be the short-term target.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 104.450, Take profit at 104.750, Stop loss at 104.200



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie once again crawled back from the 23.6% retracement. This level has played an important part in supporting the price in the past week since the pair returned to trade above this handle. Recent surge brought market into the neutral zone, which can be observed from the RSI index hovering around the line 50. In the event of continual rally, AUDUSD may form a double top pattern.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.76400, Take profit at 0.76900, Stop loss at 0.97150



GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

Recent rally has brought the pair GBPJPY back to the bullish market. As can be seen from the RSI indicator window, the index has soared to as high as 56.74. The price action has penetrated the two MAs from below, consolidating the uptrend. The pair is approaching the upper boundary of the trading range at 128.500.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 127.760, Take profit at 128.500, Stop loss at 127.400



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has been trading in a thin range for more than 2 weeks. The metal has been moving back and forth around a couple of moving average which has twisted under the price action since yesterday. Although RSI has bounced back from the average line, the rally seems limited.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 17.680, Take profit at 17.940, Stop loss at 17.485



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural Gas has been suffering a steep decline that witnessed the commodity falling from multi-month high to one-and-a-half-month lows. Natural gas has fell below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and may approach other major level at 38.2% threshold. While the market has already dipped in the oversold zone, ADX continued to hold high. No signal of a reversal has appeared yet.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2.810, Take profit at 2.700, Stop loss at 2.850



DOW JONES



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

U.S Dow Jones index has been struggling below the 18255.00 resistance since mid-October. The benchmark broke above both the short-term and long-term MAs yesterday and found the support at the MA20 when it fell off from the 18255.00 handle. Coupled with the RSI above 50 and pointing upwards in the, the convergence of the two MAs below the price action suggests a breakout today.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18260.00, Take profit at 18320.00, Stop loss at 18210.00
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:14 am

Gold Reclaims Lost Ground But Not Likely To Win The War With The Dollar

Gold edged up in European session on Tuesday, boosted by rising demand, especially in the world’s two largest consumers of the metal. However, prices have been kept in a range as an increasing probability of a U.S. interest rate hike fueled the U.S. dollar, in which gold is priced.

In China, further weakness in the local currency and investors’ concerns about government’s stringent measures to cool down the property market are seen as a boost for gold demand. The offshore Yuan hit a six-year low against the dollar before partially recovering on Monday. Large state-owned banks had to sell dollars yesterday in an effort to slow a rapid decline in the currency.

However, the Yuan is likely to remain weak as Chinese policy makers have signaled they are willing to allow greater currency flexibility against the backdrop of a slump in exports and a strengthening dollar. Potential Yuan depreciation and restricted investment in the property market may be the main drivers of Chinese gold purchases.

According to figures from the website of Swiss Federal Customs Administration, shipments of gold from Switzerland to China increased to 35.5 metric tons last month from 19.9 tons in August.

In India, seasonal demand is picking up. Dhanteras and Diwali – the country’s most eagerly-awaited festivals – are around the corner. Dhanteras – the first day of the five-day Diwali Festival – falls on October 28th but many Indians have visited the bullion market to buy gold. After Dhanteras and Hindu festival of Diwali this weekend, wedding season will follow. Good rains this year is expected to pushed up rural incomes and in turn boost rural purchases, which make up 60 percent of consumption.

Despite ongoing healthy demand, it will be hard for gold to rally as the greenback has been on a steady rise. Traders are currently pricing in a more than 70% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting, following positive economic data and hawkish comments from Fed officials.

Gold is sensitive to moves in the U.S dollar price and U.S rates, as a stronger buck makes gold more expensive to purchasers using other currencies, while higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

Gold prices have been kept range-bound for the past week after pulling back from the 38.2% retracement at 1249.79. Gold reversed higher today following three-day losing streak but the upside seems limited. The rally is being threatened by the upper boundary at 1274.50 and the short-term DMA20. As the gold market is still in favour of bears, the metal is expected to retreat once it hits the 1274.50 resistance.

GOLD Trade suggestion
Sell Limit at 1274.50, Take profit at 1260.00, Stop loss at 1280.00

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:17 pm

WTI signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 15:45 25/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 25/10/2016

Sell at 50.00
Take profit at 49.35
Stop loss at 50.50
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:47 pm

P&G Reports Upbeat Quarterly Results – Long Position Suggested

Procter & Gamble Co. (P&G), the world’s largest maker of household and personal-care products reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit before the market open on Tuesday.

P&G posted a profit of $2.71 billion, or 96 cents a share for the first fiscal quarter of 2017, up from $2.6 billion, or 91 cents a share, a year ago. Upbeat results were underpinned by cost-cutting and strong demand for its health care products.

Particularly, P&G’s health care segments performed the best, recording 5% increase in volume, fabric and home care and baby, feminine and family care segments came after with 4% improvement. Beauty brands contributed 2% and grooming products added 3%.

The company also reduced costs by selling off unprofitable brands and building a plan to cut as much as 10 billion over the next five years, after having saved the same amount in costs over the last five years.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 87.25, take profit at 88.00, stop loss at 87.00

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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:03 am

Image
Daily Report on October 26, 2016

Asian shares dropped on Wednesday, following in the footsteps of the U.S equities which were dragged down by disappointing earnings overnight. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.6%. Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 0.2%; South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.3% while gauges in Australia also fell.

The Australian dollar jumped more than 0.6% to as high as 0.77083 – the highest since last Thursday after inflation was reported to run faster than expected. Australia’s consumer prices accelerated at the pace of 0.7% last quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase, and paring bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rate this year.

Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday, pulled down by a report of surging U.S. crude inventories, and rising output in Nigeria. The industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported that U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 21. This was far above a 1.7-million barrel build forecast by analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to publish official data on U.S. crude stockpiles later today.

According to the Nigerian presidency on Tuesday, Royal Dutch Shell has resumed crude exports from the Forcados terminal in Nigeria's restive Niger Delta following repairs after a militant attack. Operations at Forcados have been halted since a militant attack on the subsea pipeline in February which was attributed to the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA).



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H1 Technical Chart

The British pound dropped steeply yesterday to retest the low logged two weeks ago before recovering losses to get back above the 1.21700 level. However, the currency continued to lose ground against the U.S dollar and has retreated after reaching 1.22054. The short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 and is putting downward pressure on the pair. As can be observed from indicator windows, while RSI remains under 50, ADX has surged to 30.07 with a wide gap between +DI and –DI lines, which indicates a strong downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.21550, Take profit at 1.21000, Stop loss at 1.21850



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been on a rise since it hit the 38.2% retracement at 1.33107. The pair failed to break below this level on Monday and has turned it into a new support. Further supporting the rally is the pair of moving averages placed below the price action. However, bulls seem to be losing stream which can be seen in shorter bodies in every new candle. USDCAD attempted the firm resistance at 1.33550 at the started of the week and turned sideways since the start of the week. Nonetheless, with a market in favor of buyers, USDCAD is expected to reach the 1.34000 threshold.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.33600, Take profit at 1.34000, Stop loss at 1.33200



GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

The pair GBPJPY has remained range-bound for nearly 2 weeks between the support at 126.100 and the resistance at 128.000. The Pound hit the upper boundary of the range yesterday but failed to break out of its trading range and is heading downwards to the lower boundary. Like the RSI which is moving around the 50 line, the price action is also swinging back and forth around the MAs. There is a high chance that the market will continue sideways for a longer period of time.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 126.670, Take profit at 126.100, Stop loss at 127.200



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Sugar has retreated after buyers have not been able to hold on to the recent strength. The price action crossed over the MA's from below, but could not sustain itself above the MA's and has quickly broken back below the MA's. The price action is currently placed around the MA's and the recent candlesticks suggest weakening upside momentum which is being confirmed by the indicators. The stochastics have retreated from the overbought area. The %K line is moving lower ahead of the %D line, suggesting an extended down move.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 22.80, Take profit at 22.35, Stop loss at 23.20



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI pulled back from the support at 49.35 following three long-body bearish candles yesterday. From the stochastic chart, we can see that after falling into the oversold zone, the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, suggesting a correction. Further, crude prices are under the shadow of the two MAs placed above the price action, which are pointing downwards. Hence, the price is anticipated to reverse lower soon.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 49.30, Take profit at 48.30, Stop loss at 50.00



DOW JONES



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

The Dow Jones index resumed its range-bound moves after pulling back from the upper boundary of the recent range. The price action has been trapped in a trading range with the support at 18055.00 and the resistance at 18255.00. The slide yesterday sent the market back into bearish terrritory, according to the RSI chart. The index may re-attempt a test of the lower boundary.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 18140.00, Take profit at 18055.00, Stop loss at 18200.00
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Re: Signals by Capital Street FX

Postby CSFX.Support » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:09 am

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:20 26/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 26/10/2016

Buy at 1.02750
Take profit at 1.03400
Stop loss at 1.02500
Benefit from 0 Pips Spreads, 200% Bonus, 1:1000 Leverage, 100% Risk Free
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